On the robustness of short-term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.

Simultaneous observations of ionospheric quasiperiodic scintillations from short and long meridional baselines using VHF transmissions from transit satellites

For the first time it was possible to observe regular quasiperiodic scintillations (QPS) in VHF radio-satellite transmissions from orbiting satellites simultaneously at short (2.1 km) and long (121 km) meridional baselines in the vicinity of a typical mid-latitude station (Brisbane; 27.5degreesS and 152.9degreesE geog. and 35.6degrees invar.lat.), using three sites (St. Lucia-S, Taringa-T in Brisbane and Boreen Pt.-B, north of Brisbane). A few pronounced quasiperiodic (QP) events were recorded showing unambiguous regular structures at the sites which made it possible to deduce a time displacement of the regular fading minimum at S, T and B. The QP structure is highly dependent on the geometry of the ray-path from a satellite to the observer which is manifested as a change of a QP event from symmetrical to non-symmetrical for stations separated by 2.1 km, and to a radical change in the structure of the event over a distance of 121 km. It is suggested the short-duration intense QP events are due to a Fresnel diffraction (or a reflection mechanism) of radio-satellite signals by a single ionospheric irregularity in a form of an ellipsoid with a large ionization gradient along the major axis. The structure of a QP event depends on the angle of viewing of the irregular blob from a radio-satellite. In view of this it is suggested that the reported variety of the ionization formation, responsible for different types of QPS, is only apparent but not real. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic viability of the third milking in systems of production using closed-circuit mechanical milking

This study aimed to analyze the economic viability of the third milking in production systems using mechanical milking in a closed circuit, aiming to provide technicians and farmers with information to assist them in decision-making. Specifically, it intended: (a) to estimate the cost of one milking; (b) to estimate the cost of the third milking; (c) to develop a mathematical equation to estimate the minimum amount of milk produced with two milkings, from which it would be economically feasible to do the third milking. Data were collected from three dairy farms, from November 2010 to March 2011, keeping a twice-a-day milking frequency, with three data collections in each farm, totalizing nine collections. Considering the average data, it would be feasible to do the third milking if the average milk yield per day of lactating cows in a twice-a-day milking frequency was greater than or equal to 24.43 kg of milk.

A DC Voltage-Multiplier Circuit Working as a High-Voltage Pulse Generator

The intensive use of semiconductor devices enabled the development of a repetitive high-voltage pulse-generator topology from the dc voltage-multiplier (VM) concept. The proposed circuit is based on an odd VM-type circuit, where a number of dc capacitors share a common connection with different voltage ratings in each one, and the output voltage comes from a single capacitor. Standard VM rectifier and coupling diodes are used for charging the energy-storing capacitors, from an ac power supply, and two additional on/off semiconductors in each stage, to switch from the typical charging VM mode to a pulse mode with the dc energy-storing capacitors connected in series with the load. Results from a 2-kV experimental prototype with three stages, delivering a 10-mu s pulse with a 5-kHz repetition rate into a resistive load, are discussed. Additionally, the proposed circuit is compared against the solid-state Marx generator topology for the same peak input and output voltages.

A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches.

An artificial neural network approach for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal

This paper presents an artificial neural network approach for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal. The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. The accuracy of the wind power forecasting attained with the proposed approach is evaluated against persistence and ARIMA approaches, reporting the numerical results from a real-world case study.

Nonlinear optimization method for short-term hydro scheduling considering head-dependency

This paper is on the problem of short-term hydro scheduling, particularly concerning head-dependent reservoirs under competitive environment. We propose a new nonlinear optimization method to consider hydroelectric power generation as a function of water discharge and also of the head. Head-dependency is considered on short-term hydro scheduling in order to obtain more realistic and feasible results. The proposed method has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, providing a higher profit at a negligible additional computation time in comparison with a linear optimization method that ignores head-dependency.

Enhanced short wavelength response in laser-scanned-photodiode image sensor using an a-SiC : H/a-Si : H tandem structure

We report in this paper the recent advances we obtained in optimizing a color image sensor based on the laser-scanned-photodiode (LSP) technique. A novel device structure based on a a-SiC:H/a-Si:H pin/pin tandem structure has been tested for a proper color separation process that takes advantage on the different filtering properties due to the different light penetration depth at different wavelengths a-SM and a-SiC:H. While the green and the red images give, in comparison with previous tested structures, a weak response, this structure shows a very good recognition of blue color under reverse bias, leaving a good margin for future device optimization in order to achieve a complete and satisfactory RGB image mapping. Experimental results about the spectral collection efficiency are presented and discussed from the point of view of the color sensor applications. The physics behind the device functioning is explained by recurring to a numerical simulation of the internal electrical configuration of the device.

Optical demultiplexer device operating in the visible spectrum

In this paper, we present results on the use of multilayered a-SiC:H heterostructures as a device for wavelength-division demultiplexing of optical signals. These devices are useful in optical communications applications that use the wavelength division multiplexing technique to encode multiple signals into the same transmission medium. The device is composed of two stacked p-i-n photodiodes, both optimized for the selective collection of photo generated carriers. Band gap engineering was used to adjust the photogeneration and recombination rate profiles of the intrinsic absorber regions of each photodiode to short and long wavelength absorption in the visible spectrum. The photocurrent signal using different input optical channels was analyzed at reverse and forward bias and under steady state illumination. A demux algorithm based on the voltage controlled sensitivity of the device was proposed and tested. An electrical model of the WDM device is presented and supported by the solution of the respective circuit equations.

Photonics Active Filters Based on SiC Multi layer Structures: A Two Stage Active Circuit

Characteristics of tunable wavelength filters based on a-SiC:H multi-layered stacked cells are studied both theoretically and experimentally. Results show that the light-activated photonic device combines the demultiplexing operation with the simultaneous photodetection and self amplification of an optical signal. The sensor is a bias wavelength current-controlled device that make use of changes in the wavelength of the background to control the power delivered to the load, acting a photonic active filter. Its gain depends on the background wavelength that controls the electrical field profile across the device.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A DC-DC Step-Up mu-Power Converter for Energy Harvesting Applications, Using Maximum Power PointTracking, Based on Fractional Open Circuit Voltage

A DC-DC step-up micro power converter for solar energy harvesting applications is presented. The circuit is based on a switched-capacitorvoltage tripler architecture with MOSFET capacitors, which results in an, area approximately eight times smaller than using MiM capacitors for the 0.131mu m CMOS technology. In order to compensate for the loss of efficiency, due to the larger parasitic capacitances, a charge reutilization scheme is employed. The circuit is self-clocked, using a phase controller designed specifically to work with an amorphous silicon solar cell, in order to obtain themaximum available power from the cell. This will be done by tracking its maximum power point (MPPT) using the fractional open circuit voltage method. Electrical simulations of the circuit, together with an equivalent electrical model of an amorphous silicon solar cell, show that the circuit can deliver apower of 1132 mu W to the load, corresponding to a maximum efficiency of 66.81%.

Application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference for wind power short-term forecasting

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. In this paper, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference approach is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Numerical results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.