793 resultados para sensemaking of risk
Resumo:
Hyperglycemia plays a pivotal role in the development and progression of vascular complications, which are the major sources of morbidity and mortality in diabetes. Furthermore, these vascular complications often persist and progress despite improved glucose control, possibly as a result of prior episodes of hyperglycemia. Epigenetic modifications mediated by histone methyltransferases are associated with gene-activating events that promote enhanced expression of key proinflammatory molecules implicated in vascular injury. In this study, we investigated genetic polymorphisms of the SETD7, SUV39H1, and SUV39H2 methyltransferases as predictors of risk for micro- and macrovascular complications in type 1 diabetes.
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The vulnerability of coastal areas to associated hazards is increasing due to population growth, development pressure and climate change. It is incumbent on coastal governance regimes to address the vulnerability of coastal inhabitants to these hazards. This is especially so at the local level where development planning and control has a direct impact on the vulnerability of coastal communities. To reduce the vulnerability of coastal populations, risk mitigation and adaptation strategies need to be built into local spatial planning processes. Local government, however, operates within a complex hierarchal governance framework which may promote or limit particular actions. It is important, therefore, to understand how local coastal planning practices are shaped by national and supranational entities. Local governments also have to respond to the demands of local populations. Consequently, it is important to understand local populations’ perceptions of coastal risk and its management. Adopting an in-depth study of coastal planning in County Mayo, Ireland, this paper evaluates: (a) how European and national policies and legislation shape coastal risk management at local level; (b) the incorporation of risk management strategies into local plans; and (c) local perception of coastal risks and risk management. Despite a strong steer from supranational and national legislation and policy, statutory local plans are found to be lacking in appropriate risk mitigation or adaptation strategies. Local residents appear to be lulled into a sense of complacency towards these risks because of the low level of attention afforded to them by the local planning authorities. To avoid potentially disastrous consequences for local residents and businesses, it is imperative that this situation is redressed urgently. Based on our analysis, we recommend: the development and implementation of a national ICZM strategy, supported by detailed local ICZM plans; and obliging local government to address known risks in their plans rather than defer them to project level decision making.
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Background: Serious case reviews and research studies have indicated weaknesses in risk assessments conducted by child protection social workers. Social workers are adept at gathering information but struggle with analysis and assessment of risk. The Department for Education wants to know if the use of a structured decision-making tool can improve child protection assessments of risk.
Methods/design: This multi-site, cluster-randomised trial will assess the effectiveness of the Safeguarding Children Assessment and Analysis Framework (SAAF). This structured decision-making tool aims to improve social workers' assessments of harm, of future risk and parents' capacity to change. The comparison is management as usual.
Inclusion criteria: Children's Services Departments (CSDs) in England willing to make relevant teams available to be randomised, and willing to meet the trial's training and data collection requirements.
Exclusion criteria: CSDs where there were concerns about performance; where a major organisational restructuring was planned or under way; or where other risk assessment tools were in use.
Six CSDs are participating in this study. Social workers in the experimental arm will receive 2 days training in SAAF together with a range of support materials, and access to limited telephone consultation post-training. The primary outcome is child maltreatment. This will be assessed using data collected nationally on two key performance indicators: the first is the number of children in a year who have been subject to a second Child Protection Plan (CPP); the second is the number of re-referrals of children because of related concerns about maltreatment. Secondary outcomes are: i) the quality of assessments judged against a schedule of quality criteria and ii) the relationship between the three assessments required by the structured decision-making tool (level of harm, risk of (re) abuse and prospects for successful intervention).
Discussion: This is the first study to examine the effectiveness of SAAF. It will contribute to a very limited literature on the contribution that structured decision-making tools can make to improving risk assessment and case planning in child protection and on what is involved in their effective implementation.
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This study presents findings from a series of interviews with Risk Managers and/or Chief Risk Officers from major Malaysian companies about the prerequisites for the effective implementation of Risk Management programmes. The interviews highlight the importance of a number of factors, including: a strong commitment from the Board of Directors and Management in general, a desire for an appropriate risk culture, the development of formal Risk Management frameworks and policies, a recognition of the importance of risk communication, the appointment of a Chief Risk Officer (CRO) and the development of a complementary system of internal audit.
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This paper examines the relationship between concepts of MNE bargaining power and broader concepts of political power. It notes that the analysis of MNE bargaining power presents a number of puzzles from the perspective of political theory. These puzzles arise, in part, from the fact that the overlap between traditional concepts of MNE bargaining power and broader concepts of political power is only a partial one. Despite these problems, it is suggested that political- theory-based approaches can add realism to our understanding of bargaining power.
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Twentieth century public health initiatives have been crucially informed by perceptions and constructions of risk. Notions of risk identification, assessment and mitigation have guided political and institutional actions even before these concepts became an explicit part of the language of public administration and policy making. Past analyses investigating the link between risk perceptions and public health are relatively rare, and where researchers have investigated this nexus, it has typically been assumed that the collective identification of health risks has led to progressive improvements in public health activities.
Risk and the Politics of Public Health addresses this gap by presenting a detailed critical historical analysis of the evolution of risk thinking within medical and health related discourses. Grouped around the four core themes of 'immigration', 'race', 'armed conflict' and 'detention and prevention' this book highlights the innovative capacity of risk related concepts as well as their vulnerability to the dysfunctional effects of dominant social ideologies. Risk and the Politics of Public Health is an essential reference for those who seek to understand the interplay of concepts of risk and public health throughout history as well as those who wish to gain a critical understanding of the social dynamics which have underpinned, and continue to underpin, this complex interaction.
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INTRODUCTION: A disaster is a serious disruption to the functioning of a community that exceeds its capacity to cope within its own resources. Risk communication in disasters aims to prevent and mitigate harm from disasters, prepare the population before a disaster, disseminate information during disasters and aid subsequent recovery. The aim of this systematic review is to identify, appraise and synthesise the findings of studies of the effects of risk communication interventions during four stages of the disaster cycle.
METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Embase, MEDLINE, PsycInfo, Sociological Abstracts, Web of Science and grey literature sources for randomised trials, cluster randomised trials, controlled and uncontrolled before and after studies, interrupted time series studies and qualitative studies of any method of disaster risk communication to at-risk populations. Outcome criteria were disaster-related knowledge and behaviour, and health outcomes.
RESULTS: Searches yielded 5,224 unique articles, of which 100 were judged to be potentially relevant. Twenty-five studies met the inclusion criteria, and two additional studies were identified from other searching. The studies evaluated interventions in all four stages of the disaster cycle, included a variety of man-made, natural and infectious disease disasters, and were conducted in many disparate settings. Only one randomised trial and one cluster randomised trial were identified, with less robust designs used in the other studies. Several studies reported improvements in disaster-related knowledge and behaviour.
DISCUSSION: We identified and appraised intervention studies of disaster risk communication and present an overview of the contemporary literature. Most studies used non-randomised designs that make interpretation challenging. We do not make specific recommendations for practice but highlight the need for high-quality randomised trials and appropriately-analysed cluster randomised trials in the field of disaster risk communication where these can be conducted within an appropriate research ethics framework.
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This paper revisits work on the socio-political amplification of risk, which predicts that those living in developing countries are exposed to greater risk than residents of developed nations. This prediction contrasts with the neoliberal expectation that market driven improvements in working conditions within industrialising/developing nations will lead to global convergence of hazard exposure levels. It also contradicts the assumption of risk society theorists that there will be an ubiquitous increase in risk exposure across the globe, which will primarily affect technically more advanced countries. Reviewing qualitative evidence on the impact of structural adjustment reforms in industrialising countries, the export of waste and hazardous waste recycling to these countries and new patterns of domestic industrialisation, the paper suggests that workers in industrialising countries continue to face far greater levels of hazard exposure than those of developed countries. This view is confirmed when a data set including 105 major multi-fatality industrial disasters from 1971 to 2000 is examined. The paper concludes that there is empirical support for the predictions of socio-political amplification of risk theory, which finds clear expression in the data in a consistent pattern of significantly greater fatality rates per industrial incident in industrialising/developing countries.
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Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) is the discipline by which enterprises monitor, analyze, and control risks from across the enterprise, with the goal of identifying underlying correlations and thus optimizing the risk-taking behavior in a portfolio context. This study analyzes the valuation implications of ERM Maturity. We use data from the industry leading Risk and Insurance Management Society Risk Maturity Model over the period from 2006 to 2011, which scores firms on a five-point maturity scale. Our results suggest that firms that have reached mature levels of ERM are exhibiting a higher firm value, as measured by Tobin's Q. We find a statistically significant positive relation to the magnitude of 25 percent. Upon decomposition of the maturity score, we find that the most important aspects of ERM from a valuation perspective relate to the level of top–down executive engagement and the resultant cascade of ERM culture throughout the firm. Firms that have successfully integrated the ERM process into both their strategic activities and everyday practices display superior ability in uncovering risk dependencies and correlations across the entire enterprise and as a consequence enhanced value when undertaking the ERM maturity journey ceteris paribus.
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No contexto dos contaminantes aquáticos, os herbicidas são considerados como um dos grupos mais perigosos. Uma vez aplicados, estes são facilmente transportados para cursos de água, quer devido a uma pulverização pouco cuidada ou devido a fenómenos de escorrência superficial e/ou subterrânea. A presença destes agroquímicos no ambiente tem vindo a ser associada a efeitos nefastos em organismos não-alvo, como é o caso dos peixes. Contudo, existe ainda uma grande lacuna no que diz respeito à informação científica relacionada com o seu impacto genotóxico. Deste modo, a presente tese foi delineada com o intuito de avaliar o risco genotóxico em peixes de duas formulações de herbicidas: o Roundup®, que tem como princípio activo o glifosato, e o Garlon®, que apresenta o triclopir na base da sua constituição, produtos estes largamente utilizados na limpeza de campos agrícolas, assim como em florestas. Foi ainda planeado desenvolver uma base de conhecimento no que diz respeito aos mecanismos de dano do ADN. Como último objectivo, pretendeu-se contribuir para a mitigação dos efeitos dos agroquímicos no biota aquático, nomeadamente em peixes, fornecendo dados científicos no sentido de melhorar as práticas agrícolas e florestais. Este estudo foi realizado adoptando a enguia europeia (Anguilla anguilla L.) como organismo-teste, e submetendo-a a exposições de curta duração (1 e 3 dias) dos produtos comerciais mencionados, em concentrações consideradas ambientalmente realistas. Para a avaliação da genotoxicidade foram aplicadas duas metodologias: o ensaio do cometa e o teste das anomalias nucleares eritrocíticas (ANE). Enquanto o ensaio do cometa detecta quebras na cadeia do ADN, um dano passível de ser reparado, o aparecimento das ANE revela lesões cromossomais, sinalizando um tipo de dano de difícil reparação. O ensaio do cometa foi ainda melhorado com uma nova etapa que incluiu a incubação com enzimas de reparação (FPG e EndoIII), permitindo perceber a ocorrência de dano oxidativo no ADN. No que diz respeito ao Roundup®, o envolvimento do sistema antioxidante como indicador de um estado próoxidante foi também alvo de estudo. Uma vez que as referidas formulações se apresentam sob a forma de misturas, o potencial genotóxico dos seus princípios activos foi também avaliado individualmente. No caso particular do Roundup®, também foram estudados o seu surfactante (amina polietoxilada; POEA) e o principal metabolito ambiental (ácido aminometilfosfórico; AMPA). Os resultados obtidos mostraram a capacidade do Roundup® em induzir tanto dano no ADN (em células de sangue, guelras e fígado) como dano cromossómico (em células de sangue). A investigação sobre o possível envolvimento do stresse oxidativo demonstrou que o tipo de dano no ADN varia com as concentrações testadas e com a duração da exposição. Deste modo, com o aumento do tempo de exposição, os processos relacionados com o envolvimento de espécies reactivas de oxigénio (ERO) ganharam preponderância como mecanismo de dano no ADN, facto que é corroborado pela activação do sistema antioxidante observado nas guelras, assim como pelo aumento dos sítios sensíveis a FPG em hepatócitos. O glifosato e o POEA foram também considerados genotóxicos. O POEA mostrou induzir uma maior extensão de dano no ADN, tanto comparado com o glifosato como com a mistura comercial. Apesar de ambos os componentes contribuirem para a genotoxicidade da formulação, a soma dos seus efeitos individuais nunca foi observada, apontando para um antagonismo entre eles e indicando que o POEA não aumenta o risco associado ao princípio activo. Deste modo, realça-se a necessidade de regulamentar limiares de segurança para todos os componentes da formulação, recomendando, em particular, a revisão da classificação do risco do POEA (actualmente classificado com “inerte”). Uma vez confirmada a capacidade do principal metabolito do glifosato – AMPA – em exercer dano no ADN assim como dano cromossómico, os produtos da degradação ambiental dos princípios activos assumem-se como um problema silencioso, realçando assim a importância de incluir o AMPA na avaliação do risco relacionado com herbicidas com base no glifosato. A formulação Garlon® e o seu princípio activo triclopir mostraram um claro potencial genotóxico. Adicionalmente, o Garlon® mostrou possuir um potencial genotóxico mais elevado do que o seu princípio activo. No entanto, a capacidade de infligir dano oxidativo no ADN não foi demonstrada para nenhum dos agentes. No que concerne à avaliação da progressão do dano após a remoção da fonte de contaminação, nem os peixes expostos a Roundup® nem os expostos a Garlon® conseguiram restaurar completamente a integridade do seu ADN ao fim de 14 dias. No que concerne ao Roundup®, o uso de enzimas de reparação de lesões específicas do ADN associado ao teste do cometa permitiu detectar um aparecimento tardio de dano oxidativo, indicando deste modo um decaimento progressivo da protecção antioxidante e ainda uma incapacidade de reparar este tipo de dano. O período de pós-exposição correspondente ao Garlon® revelou uma tendência de diminuição dos níveis de dano, apesar de nunca se observar uma completa recuperação. Ainda assim, foi evidente uma intervenção eficiente das enzimas de reparação do ADN, mais concretamente as direccionadas às purinas oxidadas. A avaliação das metodologias adoptadas tornou evidente que o procedimento base do ensaio do cometa, que detecta apenas o dano nãoespecífico no ADN, possui algumas limitações quando comparado com a metodologia que incluiu a incubação com as enzimas de reparação, uma vez que a última mostrou reduzir a possibilidade de ocorrência de resultados falsos negativos. Os dois parâmetros adoptados (ensaio do cometa e teste das ANE) demonstraram possuir aptidões complementares, sendo assim recomendado a sua utilização conjunta com vista a efectuar uma avaliação mais adequada do risco genotóxico. Globalmente, os resultados obtidos forneceram indicações de grande utilidade para as entidades reguladoras, contribuindo ainda para a (re)formulação de medidas de conservação do ambiente aquático. Neste sentido, os dados obtidos apontam para a importância da avaliação de risco dos herbicidas incluir testes de genotoxicidade. A magnitude de risco detectada para ambas as formulações adverte para a necessidade de adopção de medidas restritivas em relação à sua aplicação na proximidade de cursos de água. Como medidas mitigadoras de impactos ambientais, aponta-se o desenvolvimento de formulações que incorporem adjuvantes selecionados com base na sua baixa toxicidade.
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Background Clustering of lifestyle risk behaviours is very important in predicting premature mortality. Understanding the extent to which risk behaviours are clustered in deprived communities is vital to most effectively target public health interventions. Methods We examined co-occurrence and associations between risk behaviours (smoking, alcohol consumption, poor diet, low physical activity and high sedentary time) reported by adults living in deprived London neighbourhoods. Associations between sociodemographic characteristics and clustered risk behaviours were examined. Latent class analysis was used to identify underlying clustering of behaviours. Results Over 90% of respondents reported at least one risk behaviour. Reporting specific risk behaviours predicted reporting of further risk behaviours. Latent class analyses revealed four underlying classes. Membership of a maximal risk behaviour class was more likely for young, white males who were unable to work. Conclusions Compared with recent national level analysis, there was a weaker relationship between education and clustering of behaviours and a very high prevalence of clustering of risk behaviours in those unable to work. Young, white men who report difficulty managing on income were at high risk of reporting multiple risk behaviours. These groups may be an important target for interventions to reduce premature mortality caused by multiple risk behaviours.
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We investigate the impact of domestic/international bancassurance deals on the risk-return profiles of announcing and non-announcing banks and insurers within a GARCH model. Bank-insurance deals produce intra- and inter-industry contagion in both risk and return, with larger deals producing greater contagion. Bidder banks and peers experience positive abnormal returns, with the effects on insurer peers being stronger than those on bank peers. Insurance-bank deals produce insignificant excess returns for bidder and peer insurers and positive valuations for peer banks. Following the deal, the bank bidders’ idiosyncratic (systematic) risk falls (increases), while insurance bidders exhibit a lower systematic risk and maintain their idiosyncratic risk.
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We investigate the risk effects of bank acquisitions of insurance companies and securities firms between 1991 and 2012 using a newly constructed dataset of M&A deals. We examine risk changes before and after deal announcements by decomposing risk into systematic and idiosyncratic components. Subsequently, we investigate the relationship between risk and diversification by modelling the determinants of risks. We find that bank combinations with securities firms yield higher risks than combinations with insurance companies. Bank size is an important and consistent determinant of risk whereas diversification is not. Our results inform the continuing debate on diversification versus functional separation of bank activities.
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BACKGROUND: Data for multiple common susceptibility alleles for breast cancer may be combined to identify women at different levels of breast cancer risk. Such stratification could guide preventive and screening strategies. However, empirical evidence for genetic risk stratification is lacking. METHODS: We investigated the value of using 77 breast cancer-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for risk stratification, in a study of 33 673 breast cancer cases and 33 381 control women of European origin. We tested all possible pair-wise multiplicative interactions and constructed a 77-SNP polygenic risk score (PRS) for breast cancer overall and by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Absolute risks of breast cancer by PRS were derived from relative risk estimates and UK incidence and mortality rates. RESULTS: There was no strong evidence for departure from a multiplicative model for any SNP pair. Women in the highest 1% of the PRS had a three-fold increased risk of developing breast cancer compared with women in the middle quintile (odds ratio [OR] = 3.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.95 to 3.83). The ORs for ER-positive and ER-negative disease were 3.73 (95% CI = 3.24 to 4.30) and 2.80 (95% CI = 2.26 to 3.46), respectively. Lifetime risk of breast cancer for women in the lowest and highest quintiles of the PRS were 5.2% and 16.6% for a woman without family history, and 8.6% and 24.4% for a woman with a first-degree family history of breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The PRS stratifies breast cancer risk in women both with and without a family history of breast cancer. The observed level of risk discrimination could inform targeted screening and prevention strategies. Further discrimination may be achievable through combining the PRS with lifestyle/environmental factors, although these were not considered in this report.
Risk Acceptance in the Furniture Sector: Analysis of Acceptance Level and Relevant Influence Factors
Resumo:
Risk acceptance has been broadly discussed in relation to hazardous risk activities and/or technologies. A better understanding of risk acceptance in occupational settings is also important; however, studies on this topic are scarce. It seems important to understand the level of risk that stakeholders consider sufficiently low, how stakeholders form their opinion about risk, and why they adopt a certain attitude toward risk. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to examine risk acceptance in regard to occupational accidents in furniture industries. The safety climate analysis was conducted through the application of the Safety Climate in Wood Industries questionnaire. Judgments about risk acceptance, trust, risk perception, benefit perception, emotions, and moral values were measured. Several models were tested to explain occupational risk acceptance. The results showed that the level of risk acceptance decreased as the risk level increased. High-risk and death scenarios were assessed as unacceptable. Risk perception, emotions, and trust had an important influence on risk acceptance. Safety climate was correlated with risk acceptance and other variables that influence risk acceptance. These results are important for the risk assessment process in terms of defining risk acceptance criteria and strategies to reduce risks.