988 resultados para regression discontinuity design
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Objective: To develop a model to predict the bleeding source and identify the cohort amongst patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) who require urgent intervention, including endoscopy. Patients with acute GIB, an unpredictable event, are most commonly evaluated and managed by non-gastroenterologists. Rapid and consistently reliable risk stratification of patients with acute GIB for urgent endoscopy may potentially improve outcomes amongst such patients by targeting scarce health-care resources to those who need it the most. Design and methods: Using ICD-9 codes for acute GIB, 189 patients with acute GIB and all. available data variables required to develop and test models were identified from a hospital medical records database. Data on 122 patients was utilized for development of the model and on 67 patients utilized to perform comparative analysis of the models. Clinical data such as presenting signs and symptoms, demographic data, presence of co-morbidities, laboratory data and corresponding endoscopic diagnosis and outcomes were collected. Clinical data and endoscopic diagnosis collected for each patient was utilized to retrospectively ascertain optimal management for each patient. Clinical presentations and corresponding treatment was utilized as training examples. Eight mathematical models including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), shrunken centroid (SC), random forest (RF), logistic regression, and boosting were trained and tested. The performance of these models was compared using standard statistical analysis and ROC curves. Results: Overall the random forest model best predicted the source, need for resuscitation, and disposition with accuracies of approximately 80% or higher (accuracy for endoscopy was greater than 75%). The area under ROC curve for RF was greater than 0.85, indicating excellent performance by the random forest model Conclusion: While most mathematical models are effective as a decision support system for evaluation and management of patients with acute GIB, in our testing, the RF model consistently demonstrated the best performance. Amongst patients presenting with acute GIB, mathematical models may facilitate the identification of the source of GIB, need for intervention and allow optimization of care and healthcare resource allocation; these however require further validation. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Background: Widespread use of prostate-specific antigen screening has resulted in younger and healthier men being diagnosed with prostate cancer. Their demands and expectations of surgical intervention are much higher and cannot be adequately addressed with the classic trifecta outcome measures. Objective: A new and more comprehensive method for reporting outcomes after radical prostatectomy, the pentafecta, is proposed. Design, setting, and participants: From January 2008 through September 2009, details of 1111 consecutive patients who underwent robot-assisted radical prostatectomy performed by a single surgeon were retrospectively analyzed. Of 626 potent men, 332 who underwent bilateral nerve sparing and who had 1 yr of follow-up were included in the study group. Measurements: In addition to the traditional trifecta outcomes, two perioperative variables were included in the pentafecta: no postoperative complications and negative surgical margins. Patients who attained the trifecta and concurrently the two additional outcomes were considered as having achieved the pentafecta. A logistic regression model was created to evaluate independent factors for achieving the pentafecta. Results and limitations: Continence, potency, biochemical recurrence-free survival, and trifecta rates at 12 mo were 96.4%, 89.8%, 96.4%, and 83.1%, respectively. With regard to the perioperative outcomes, 93.4% had no postoperative complication and 90.7% had negative surgical margins. The pentafecta rate at 12 mo was 70.8%. On multivariable analysis, patient age (p = 0.001) was confirmed as the only factor independently associated with the pentafecta. Conclusions: A more comprehensive approach for reporting prostate surgery outcomes, the pentafecta, is being proposed. We believe that pentafecta outcomes more accurately represent patients` expectations after minimally invasive surgery for prostate cancer. This approach may be beneficial and may be used when counseling patients with clinically localized disease. (C) 2011 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.
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Many features of chronic kidney disease may be reversed, but it is unclear whether advanced lesions, such as adhesions of sclerotic glomerular tufts to Bowman`s capsule (synechiae), can resolve during treatment. We previously showed, using a renal ablation model, that the renoprotective effect of the AT-1 receptor blocker, losartan, is dose-dependent. Here we determined if moderate and advanced glomerular lesions, associated with streptozotocin-induced diabetes, regress with conventional or high-dose losartan treatment. Using daily insulin injection for 10 months, we maintained diabetic adult male Munich-Wistar rats in a state of moderate hyperglycemia. Following this period, some rats continued to receive insulin with or without conventional or high-dose losartan for an additional 2 months. Diabetic rats pretreated with insulin for 10 months and age-matched non-diabetic rats served as controls. Mesangial expansion was found in the control diabetic rats and was exacerbated in those rats maintained on only insulin for an additional 2 months. Conventional and high-dose losartan treatments reduced this mesangial expansion and the severity of synechiae lesions below that found prior to treatment; however, the frequency of the latter was unchanged. There was no dose-response effect of losartan. Our results show that regression of mesangial expansion and contraction of sclerotic lesions is feasible in the treatment of diabetes, but complete resolution of advanced glomerulosclerosis may be hard to achieve.
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Background Benznidazole is effective for treating acute and chronic (recently acquired) Tryponosoma cruzi infection (Chagas` disease). Recent data indicate that parasite persistence plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of chronic Chagas` cardiomyopathy. However, the efficacy of trypanocidal therapy in preventing clinical complications in patients with preexisting cardiac disease is unknown. Study Design BENEFIT is a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial of 3,000 patients with Chagas` cardiomyopathy in Latin America. Patients are randomized to receive benznidazole (5 mg/kg per day) or matched placebo, for 60 days. The primary outcome is the composite of death; resuscitated cardiac arrest; sustained ventricular tachycardia; insertion of pacemaker or cardiac defibrillator; cardiac transplantation; and development of new heart failure, stroke, or systemic or pulmonary thromboembolic events. The average follow-up time will be 5 years, and the trial has a 90% power to detect a 25% relative risk reduction. The BENEFIT program also comprises a substudy evaluating the effects of benznidazole on parasite clearance and an echo substudy exploring the impact of etiologic treatment on left ventricular function. Recruitment started in November 2004, and >1,000 patients have been enrolled in 35 centers from Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia to date. Conclusion This is the largest trial yet conducted in Chagas` disease. BENEFIT will clarify the role of trypanocidal therapy in preventing cardiac disease progression and death.
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Objective: To evaluate the determinants of total plasma homocysteine levels and their relations with nutritional parameters, inflammatory status, and traditional risk factors for cardiovascular disease in renal failure patients on dialysis treatment. Design: The study was conducted on 70 clinically stable patients, 50 of them on hemodialysis (70% men; 55.3 +/- 14.5 years) and 20 on peritoneal dialysis (50% men; 62 +/- 13.7 years). Patients were analyzed in terms of biochemical parameters (serum lipids, creatinine, homocysteine [Hcy], creatine-kinase [Ck], folic acid, and vitamin B(12)), anthropometric data, markers of inflammatory status (tumor necrosis factor-alpha, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6), and adapted subjective global assessment. Results: The total prevalence of hyperhomocysteinemia (>15 mu mol/L) was 85.7%. Plasma folic acid and plasma vitamin B(12) were within the normal range. Multiple regression analysis (r(2) - 0.20) revealed that the determinants of total Hcy were type of dialysis, creatinine, Ck, folic acid, and total cholesterol. Hcy was positively correlated with albumin and creatinine and negatively correlated with total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, folic acid, and vitamin B(12). Conclusions: The determinants of total Hcy in the study sample were type of dialysis, creatinine, Ck, folic acid, and total cholesterol. Evidently, the small sample size might have had an effect on the statistical analyses and further studies are needed. However, Hcy in patients on dialysis treatment may not have the same effect as observed in the general population. In this respect, the association between malnutrition and inflammation may be a confounding factor in the determination of the true relationship between Hcy, nutritional status, and cardiovascular risk factors in this group. (C) 2011 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Background: Coffee consumption has been associated with a lower risk of diabetes, but little is known about the mechanisms responsible for this association, especially related to the time when coffee is consumed. Objective: We examined the long-term effect of coffee, globally and according to the accompanying meal, and of tea, chicory, and caffeine on type 2 diabetes risk. Design: This was a prospective cohort study including 69,532 French women, aged 41-72 y from the E3N/EPIC (Etude Epidemiologique aupres de Femmes de la Mutuelle Generale de l`Education Nationale/European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) cohort study, without diabetes at baseline. Food and drink intakes per meal were assessed by using a validated diet-history questionnaire in 1993-1995. Results: During a mean follow-up of 11 y, 1415 new cases of diabetes were identified. In multivariable Cox regression models, the hazard ratio in the highest category of coffee consumption [>= 3 cups (375 mL)/d] was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.61, 0.87; P for trend < 0.001), in comparison with no coffee consumption. This inverse association was restricted to coffee consumed at lunchtime (hazard ratio: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.57, 0.76) when comparing >1.1 cup (125 mL)/meal with no intake. At lunchtime, this inverse association was observed for both regular and decaffeinated coffee and for filtered and black coffee, with no effect of sweetening. Total caffeine intake was also associated with a statistically significantly lower risk of diabetes. Neither tea nor chicory consumption was associated with diabetes risk. Conclusions: Our data support an inverse association between coffee consumption and diabetes and suggest that the time of drinking coffee plays a distinct role in glucose metabolism. Am J Clin Nutr 2010; 91: 1002-12.
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Context: Genetic factors that influence the response to recombinant human GH (rhGH) therapy remain mostly unknown. To date, only the GH receptor gene has been investigated. Objective: The aim of the study was to assess the influence of a polymorphism in the IGF-binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) promoter region (-202 A/C) on circulating IGFBP-3 levels and growth response to rhGH therapy in children with GH deficiency (GHD). Design and Patients: -202 A/C IGFBP3 genotyping (rs2854744) was correlated with data of 71 children with severe GHD who remained prepubertal during the first year of rhGH treatment. Main Outcome Measures: We measured IGFBP-3 levels and first year growth velocity (GV) during rhGH treatment. Results: Clinical and laboratory data at the start of treatment were indistinguishable among patients with different -202 A/C IGFBP3 genotypes. Despite similar rhGH doses, patients homozygous for the A allele presented higher IGFBP-3 SD score levels and higher mean GV in the first year of rhGH treatment than patients with AC or CC genotypes (first year GV, AA = 13.0 +/- 2.1 cm/yr, AC = 11.4 +/- 2.5 cm/yr, and CC = 10.8 +/- 1.9 cm/yr; P = 0.016). Multiple linear regression analyses demonstrated that the influence of -202 A/C IGFBP3 genotype on IGFBP-3 levels and GV during the first year of rhGH treatment was independent of other variables. Conclusion: The -202 A allele of IGFBP3 promoter region is associated with increased IGFBP-3 levels and GV during rhGH treatment in prepubertal GHD children. (J Clin Endocrinol Metab 94: 588-595, 2009)
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Background. Respiratory symptoms associated with smoking habit seem to be age dependent. However, there are few reports about the effect of tobacco in young populations. The objective of this study was to analyze the effect of smoking on respiratory symptoms and lung function in 23- to 25-year-old adults in Brazil. This study had a cross-sectional design and included 2063 young people in the city of Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo State. Methods: Subjects completed a questionnaire used by the European Community Respiratory Health Survey and underwent spirometry and bronchial challenge test with methacholine. Multiple logistic regression analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were carried out to assess the association between smoking and respiratory symptoms, bronchial hyperresponsiveness, forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), and forced vital capacity (FVC), adjusted for confounding variables. Results: Prevalence of smoking habit was 17.2% with consumption (median) of 10 cigarettes per day (interquartile range 3-20). There was a significant association between smoking and respiratory symptoms. Smoking was associated to wheezing with odds ratio (95%Cl) of 6.11 (4.03-9.28) among those smoking :10 cigarettes per day and 3.36 (2.11-5.37) among those smoking <10 cigarettes per day. Associations were found for other respiratory symptoms. Smoking was associated with lower FEV1/FVC ratio. No association was detected between smoking and FEV1 or bronchial hyperresponsiveness. Conclusions: These findings highlight the early health consequences of smoking among young adults. These results prompt the necessity to elaborate urgent programs to reduce tobacco habit in young populations.
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Objective. To estimate physical violence between intimate partners and to examine the association between violence and sociodemographic variables, use of alcohol, and other related factors. Method. This epidemiologic survey included a stratified probabilistic sample representative of the population from the city of Sao Paulo in economic and educational terms. The Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study (GENACIS) questionnaire was employed. The sampling unit was the home, where all individuals older than 18 years were candidates for interview. The final sample included 1 631 people. Statistical analysis employed the Rao Scott test and logistic regression. Results. The response rate was 74.5%. Most participants were female (58.8%), younger than 40 years of age (52%), or had 5 to 12 years of schooling. Of the overall group, 5.4% reported having been victims of physical violence by an intimate partner and 5.4% declared having been aggressors of intimate partners in the past 2 years. Most men declared that none of those involved had ingested alcohol at the moment of aggression. Most women reported that nobody or only the man had drunk. Being a victim or an aggressor was associated with younger age and having a heavy-drinking partner. Women suffered more serious aggression, requiring medical care, and expressed more anger and disgust at aggression than men. Conclusions. The results underscore the importance of the association between alcohol use and risk of aggression between intimate partners, and may contribute to the design of public policies aimed to control this situation.