973 resultados para probability models
Resumo:
The indoor air quality (IAQ) in buildings is currently assessed by measurement of pollutants during building operation for comparison with air quality standards. Current practice at the design stage tries to minimise potential indoor air quality impacts of new building materials and contents by selecting low-emission materials. However low-emission materials are not always available, and even when used the aggregated pollutant concentrations from such materials are generally overlooked. This paper presents an innovative tool for estimating indoor air pollutant concentrations at the design stage, based on emissions over time from large area building materials, furniture and office equipment. The estimator considers volatile organic compounds, formaldehyde and airborne particles from indoor materials and office equipment and the contribution of outdoor urban air pollutants affected by urban location and ventilation system filtration. The estimated pollutants are for a single, fully mixed and ventilated zone in an office building with acceptable levels derived from Australian and international health-based standards. The model acquires its dimensional data for the indoor spaces from a 3D CAD model via IFC files and the emission data from a building products/contents emissions database. This paper describes the underlying approach to estimating indoor air quality and discusses the benefits of such an approach for designers and the occupants of buildings.
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Queensland Department of Main Roads, Australia, spends approximately A$ 1 billion annually for road infrastructure asset management. To effectively manage road infrastructure, firstly road agencies not only need to optimise the expenditure for data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. This paper presents the results of case studies in using the probability-based method for an integrated approach (i.e. assessing optimal costs of pavement strength data collection; calibrating deterioration prediction models that suit local condition and assessing risk-adjusted budget estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation for assessing life-cycle budget estimates). The probability concept is opening the path to having the means to predict life-cycle maintenance and rehabilitation budget estimates that have a known probability of success (e.g. produce budget estimates for a project life-cycle cost with 5% probability of exceeding). The paper also presents a conceptual decision-making framework in the form of risk mapping in which the life-cycle budget/cost investment could be considered in conjunction with social, environmental and political issues.
Resumo:
The validation of Computed Tomography (CT) based 3D models takes an integral part in studies involving 3D models of bones. This is of particular importance when such models are used for Finite Element studies. The validation of 3D models typically involves the generation of a reference model representing the bones outer surface. Several different devices have been utilised for digitising a bone’s outer surface such as mechanical 3D digitising arms, mechanical 3D contact scanners, electro-magnetic tracking devices and 3D laser scanners. However, none of these devices is capable of digitising a bone’s internal surfaces, such as the medullary canal of a long bone. Therefore, this study investigated the use of a 3D contact scanner, in conjunction with a microCT scanner, for generating a reference standard for validating the internal and external surfaces of a CT based 3D model of an ovine femur. One fresh ovine limb was scanned using a clinical CT scanner (Phillips, Brilliance 64) with a pixel size of 0.4 mm2 and slice spacing of 0.5 mm. Then the limb was dissected to obtain the soft tissue free bone while care was taken to protect the bone’s surface. A desktop mechanical 3D contact scanner (Roland DG Corporation, MDX 20, Japan) was used to digitise the surface of the denuded bone. The scanner was used with the resolution of 0.3 × 0.3 × 0.025 mm. The digitised surfaces were reconstructed into a 3D model using reverse engineering techniques in Rapidform (Inus Technology, Korea). After digitisation, the distal and proximal parts of the bone were removed such that the shaft could be scanned with a microCT (µCT40, Scanco Medical, Switzerland) scanner. The shaft, with the bone marrow removed, was immersed in water and scanned with a voxel size of 0.03 mm3. The bone contours were extracted from the image data utilising the Canny edge filter in Matlab (The Mathswork).. The extracted bone contours were reconstructed into 3D models using Amira 5.1 (Visage Imaging, Germany). The 3D models of the bone’s outer surface reconstructed from CT and microCT data were compared against the 3D model generated using the contact scanner. The 3D model of the inner canal reconstructed from the microCT data was compared against the 3D models reconstructed from the clinical CT scanner data. The disparity between the surface geometries of two models was calculated in Rapidform and recorded as average distance with standard deviation. The comparison of the 3D model of the whole bone generated from the clinical CT data with the reference model generated a mean error of 0.19±0.16 mm while the shaft was more accurate(0.08±0.06 mm) than the proximal (0.26±0.18 mm) and distal (0.22±0.16 mm) parts. The comparison between the outer 3D model generated from the microCT data and the contact scanner model generated a mean error of 0.10±0.03 mm indicating that the microCT generated models are sufficiently accurate for validation of 3D models generated from other methods. The comparison of the inner models generated from microCT data with that of clinical CT data generated an error of 0.09±0.07 mm Utilising a mechanical contact scanner in conjunction with a microCT scanner enabled to validate the outer surface of a CT based 3D model of an ovine femur as well as the surface of the model’s medullary canal.
Resumo:
Toll plazas are particularly susceptible to build-ups of vehicle-emitted pollutants because vehicles pass through in low gear. To look at this, three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics simulations of pollutant dispersion are used on the standard k e turbulence model. The effects of wind speed, wind direction and topography on pollutant dispersion were discussed. The Wuzhuang toll plaza on the Hefei-Nanjing expressway is considered, and the effects of the retaining walls along both sides of the plaza on pollutant dispersion is analysed. There are greater pollutant concentrations near the tollbooths as the angle between the direction of the wind and traffic increases implying that retaining walls impede dispersion. The slope of the walls has little influence on the variations in pollutant concentration.
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Aiming at the shortage of prevailing prediction methods about highway truck conveyance configuration in over-limit freight research that transferring the goods attributed to over-limit portion to another fully loaded truck of the same configuration and developing the truck traffic volume synchronously, a new way to get accumulated probability function of truck power tonnage in basal year by highway truck classified by wheel and axle type load mass spectrum investigation was presented. Logit models were used to forecast overall highway freight diversion and single cargo tonnage diversion when the weight rules and strict of enforcement intensity of overload were changed in scheme year. Assumption that the probability distribution of single truck loadage should be consistent with the probability distribution of single goods freighted, the model describes the truck conveyance configuration in the future under strict over-limit prohibition. The model was used and tested in Highway Over-limit Research Project in Anhui by World Bank.
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Two studies were conducted to investigate empirical support for two models relating to the development of self-concepts and self-esteem in upper-primary school children. The first study investigated the social learning model by examining the relationship between mothers' and fathers' self-reported self-concepts and self-esteem and the self-reported self-concepts and self-esteem of their children. The second study investigated the symbolic interaction model by examining the relationship between children's perception of the frequency of positive and negative statements made by parents and their self-reported self-concepts and self-esteem. The results of these studies suggested that what parents say to their children and how they interact with them is more closely related to their children's self-perceptions than the role of modelling parental attitudes and behaviours. The findings highlight the benefits of parents talking positively to their children.
Resumo:
With increasingly complex engineering assets and tight economic requirements, asset reliability becomes more crucial in Engineering Asset Management (EAM). Improving the reliability of systems has always been a major aim of EAM. Reliability assessment using degradation data has become a significant approach to evaluate the reliability and safety of critical systems. Degradation data often provide more information than failure time data for assessing reliability and predicting the remnant life of systems. In general, degradation is the reduction in performance, reliability, and life span of assets. Many failure mechanisms can be traced to an underlying degradation process. Degradation phenomenon is a kind of stochastic process; therefore, it could be modelled in several approaches. Degradation modelling techniques have generated a great amount of research in reliability field. While degradation models play a significant role in reliability analysis, there are few review papers on that. This paper presents a review of the existing literature on commonly used degradation models in reliability analysis. The current research and developments in degradation models are reviewed and summarised in this paper. This study synthesises these models and classifies them in certain groups. Additionally, it attempts to identify the merits, limitations, and applications of each model. It provides potential applications of these degradation models in asset health and reliability prediction.
Resumo:
This research examines how men react to male models in print advertisements. In two experiments, we show that the gender identity of men influences their responses to advertisements featuring a masculine, feminine, or androgynous male model. In addition, we explore the extent to which men feel they will be classified by others as similar to the model as a mechanism for these effects. Specifically, masculine men respond most favorably to masculine models and are negative toward feminine models. In contrast, feminine men prefer feminine models when their private self is salient. Yet in a collective context, they prefer masculine models.These experiments shed light on how gender identity and self-construal influence male evaluations and illustrate the social pressure on men to endorse traditional masculine portrayals. We also present implications for advertising practice.
Resumo:
In two experiments, we show that the beliefs women have about the controllability of their weight (i.e., weight locus of control) influences their responses to advertisements featuring a larger-sized female model or a slim female model. Further, we examine self-referencing as a mechanism for these effects. Specifically, people who believe they can control their weight (“internals”), respond most favorably to slim models in advertising, and this favorable response is mediated by self-referencing. In contrast, people who feel powerless about their weight (“externals”), self-reference larger-sized models, but only prefer larger-sized models when the advertisement is for a non-fattening product. For fattening products, they exhibit a similar preference for larger-sized models and slim models. Together, these experiments shed light on the effect of model body size and the role of weight locus of control in influencing consumer attitudes.
Resumo:
A configurable process model provides a consolidated view of a family of business processes. It promotes the reuse of proven practices by providing analysts with a generic modelling artifact from which to derive individual process models. Unfortunately, the scope of existing notations for configurable process modelling is restricted, thus hindering their applicability. Specifically, these notations focus on capturing tasks and control-flow dependencies, neglecting equally important ingredients of business processes such as data and resources. This research fills this gap by proposing a configurable process modelling notation incorporating features for capturing resources, data and physical objects involved in the performance of tasks. The proposal has been implemented in a toolset that assists analysts during the configuration phase and guarantees the correctness of the resulting process models. The approach has been validated by means of a case study from the film industry.
Resumo:
Advertising research has generally not gone beyond offering support for a positive effect where ethnic models in advertising are viewed by consumers of the same ethnicity. This study offers an explanation behind this phenomenon that can be useful to marketers using self-reference theory. Our experiment reveals a strong self-referencing effect for ethnic minority individuals. Specifically, Asian subjects (the ethnic minority group) self-referenced ads with Asian models more than white subjects (the ethnic majority group). However, this result was not evident for white subjects. Implications for academics and advertisers are discussed.
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Australia needs highly skilled workers to sustain a healthy economy. Current employment-based training models have limitations in meeting the demands for highly skilled labour supply. The research explored current and emerging models of employment-based training to propose more effective models at higher VET qualifications that can maintain a balance between institution and work-based learning.
Resumo:
Cognitive modelling of phenomena in clinical practice allows the operationalisation of otherwise diffuse descriptive terms such as craving or flashbacks. This supports the empirical investigation of the clinical phenomena and the development of targeted treatment interventions. This paper focuses on the cognitive processes underpinning craving, which is recognised as a motivating experience in substance dependence. We use a high-level cognitive architecture, Interacting Cognitive Subsystems (ICS), to compare two theories of craving: Tiffany's theory, centred on the control of automated action schemata, and our own Elaborated Intrusion theory of craving. Data from a questionnaire study of the subjective aspects of everyday desires experienced by a large non-clinical population are presented. Both the data and the high-level modelling support the central claim of the Elaborated Intrusion theory that imagery is a key element of craving, providing the subjective experience and mediating much of the associated disruption of concurrent cognition.
Resumo:
Query reformulation is a key user behavior during Web search. Our research goal is to develop predictive models of query reformulation during Web searching. This article reports results from a study in which we automatically classified the query-reformulation patterns for 964,780 Web searching sessions, composed of 1,523,072 queries, to predict the next query reformulation. We employed an n-gram modeling approach to describe the probability of users transitioning from one query-reformulation state to another to predict their next state. We developed first-, second-, third-, and fourth-order models and evaluated each model for accuracy of prediction, coverage of the dataset, and complexity of the possible pattern set. The results show that Reformulation and Assistance account for approximately 45% of all query reformulations; furthermore, the results demonstrate that the first- and second-order models provide the best predictability, between 28 and 40% overall and higher than 70% for some patterns. Implications are that the n-gram approach can be used for improving searching systems and searching assistance.
Resumo:
Modern Engineering Asset Management (EAM) requires the accurate assessment of current and the prediction of future asset health condition. Appropriate mathematical models that are capable of estimating times to failures and the probability of failures in the future are essential in EAM. In most real-life situations, the lifetime of an engineering asset is influenced and/or indicated by different factors that are termed as covariates. Hazard prediction with covariates is an elemental notion in the reliability theory to estimate the tendency of an engineering asset failing instantaneously beyond the current time assumed that it has already survived up to the current time. A number of statistical covariate-based hazard models have been developed. However, none of them has explicitly incorporated both external and internal covariates into one model. This paper introduces a novel covariate-based hazard model to address this concern. This model is named as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM). Both the semi-parametric and non-parametric forms of this model are presented in the paper. The major purpose of this paper is to illustrate the theoretical development of EHM. Due to page limitation, a case study with the reliability field data is presented in the applications part of this study.