David Hume on probability and the Gambler’s fallacy

Cette présentation examinera le degré de certitude qui peut être atteint dans le domaine scientifique. Le paradigme scientifique est composé de deux extrêmes; causalité et déterminisme d'un côté et probabilité et indéterminisme de l'autre. En faisant appel aux notions de Hume de la ressemblance et la contiguïté, on peut rejeter la causalité ou le hasard objectif comme étant sans fondement et non empirique. Le problème de l'induction et le sophisme du parieur proviennent d’une même source cognitif / heuristique. Hume décrit ces tendances mentales dans ses essais « Of Probability » et « Of the Idea of Necessary Connexion ». Une discussion sur la conception de la probabilité de Hume ainsi que d'autres interprétations de probabilité sera nécessaire. Même si la science glorifie et idéalise la causalité, la probabilité peut être comprise comme étant tout aussi cohérente. Une attitude probabiliste, même si elle est également non empirique, pourrait être plus avantageuse que le vieux paradigme de la causalité.

Interpretação e análise do problema da indução sob uma visão fundamentada em teorias de conjuntos e teoria de probabilidades

The following work is to interpret and analyze the problem of induction under a vision founded on set theory and probability theory as a basis for solution of its negative philosophical implications related to the systems of inductive logic in general. Due to the importance of the problem and the relatively recent developments in these fields of knowledge (early 20th century), as well as the visible relations between them and the process of inductive inference, it has been opened a field of relatively unexplored and promising possibilities. The key point of the study consists in modeling the information acquisition process using concepts of set theory, followed by a treatment using probability theory. Throughout the study it was identified as a major obstacle to the probabilistic justification, both: the problem of defining the concept of probability and that of rationality, as well as the subtle connection between the two. This finding called for a greater care in choosing the criterion of rationality to be considered in order to facilitate the treatment of the problem through such specific situations, but without losing their original characteristics so that the conclusions can be extended to classic cases such as the question about the continuity of the sunrise

Differential induction, isolation, physicochemical and molecular characterization of temperate phages of environmental Vibrio cholerae as evidence of phage mediated Horizontal Gene Transfer

The resurgence of the enteric pathogen Vibrio cholerae, the causative organism of epidemic cholera, remains a major health problem in many developing countries like India. The southern Indian state of Kerala is endemic to cholera. The outbreaks of cholera follow a seasonal pattern in regions of endemicity. Marine aquaculture settings and mangrove environments of Kerala serve as reservoirs for V. cholerae. The non-O1/non-O139 environmental isolates of V. cholerae with incomplete ‘virulence casette’ are to be dealt with caution as they constitute a major reservoir of diverse virulence genes in the marine environment and play a crucial role in pathogenicity and horizontal gene transfer. The genes coding cholera toxin are borne on, and can be infectiously transmitted by CTXΦ, a filamentous lysogenic vibriophages. Temperate phages can provide crucial virulence and fitness factors affecting cell metabolism, bacterial adhesion, colonization, immunity, antibiotic resistance and serum resistance. The present study was an attempt to screen the marine environments like aquafarms and mangroves of coastal areas of Alappuzha and Cochin, Kerala for the presence of lysogenic V. cholerae, to study their pathogenicity and also gene transfer potential. Phenotypic and molecular methods were used for identification of isolates as V. cholerae. The thirty one isolates which were Gram negative, oxidase positive, fermentative, with or without gas production on MOF media and which showed yellow coloured colonies on TCBS (Thiosulfate Citrate Bile salt Sucrose) agar were segregated as vibrios. Twenty two environmental V. cholerae strains of both O1 and non- O1/non-O139 serogroups on induction with mitomycin C showed the presence of lysogenic phages. They produced characteristic turbid plaques in double agar overlay assay using the indicator strain V. cholerae El Tor MAK 757. PCR based molecular typing with primers targeting specific conserved sequences in the bacterial genome, demonstrated genetic diversity among these lysogen containing non-O1 V. cholerae . Polymerase chain reaction was also employed as a rapid screening method to verify the presence of 9 virulence genes namely, ctxA, ctxB, ace, hlyA, toxR, zot,tcpA, ninT and nanH, using gene specific primers. The presence of tcpA gene in ALPVC3 was alarming, as it indicates the possibility of an epidemic by accepting the cholera. Differential induction studies used ΦALPVC3, ΦALPVC11, ΦALPVC12 and ΦEKM14, underlining the possibility of prophage induction in natural ecosystems, due to abiotic factors like antibiotics, pollutants, temperature and UV. The efficiency of induction of prophages varied considerably in response to the different induction agents. The growth curve of lysogenic V. cholerae used in the study drastically varied in the presence of strong prophage inducers like antibiotics and UV. Bacterial cell lysis was directly proportional to increase in phage number due to induction. Morphological characterization of vibriophages by Transmission Electron Microscopy revealed hexagonal heads for all the four phages. Vibriophage ΦALPVC3 exhibited isometric and contractile tails characteristic of family Myoviridae, while phages ΦALPVC11 and ΦALPVC12 demonstrated the typical hexagonal head and non-contractile tail of family Siphoviridae. ΦEKM14, the podophage was distinguished by short non-contractile tail and icosahedral head. This work demonstrated that environmental parameters can influence the viability and cell adsorption rates of V. cholerae phages. Adsorption studies showed 100% adsorption of ΦALPVC3 ΦALPVC11, ΦALPVC12 and ΦEKM14 after 25, 30, 40 and 35 minutes respectively. Exposure to high temperatures ranging from 50ºC to 100ºC drastically reduced phage viability. The optimum concentration of NaCl required for survival of vibriophages except ΦEKM14 was 0.5 M and that for ΦEKM14 was 1M NaCl. Survival of phage particles was maximum at pH 7-8. V. cholerae is assumed to have existed long before their human host and so the pathogenic clones may have evolved from aquatic forms which later colonized the human intestine by progressive acquisition of genes. This is supported by the fact that the vast majority of V. cholerae strains are still part of the natural aquatic environment. CTXΦ has played a critical role in the evolution of the pathogenicity of V. cholerae as it can transmit the ctxAB gene. The unusual transformation of V. cholerae strains associated with epidemics and the emergence of V. cholera O139 demonstrates the evolutionary success of the organism in attaining greater fitness. Genetic changes in pathogenic V. cholerae constitute a natural process for developing immunity within an endemically infected population. The alternative hosts and lysogenic environmental V. cholerae strains may potentially act as cofactors in promoting cholera phage ‘‘blooms’’ within aquatic environments, thereby influencing transmission of phage sensitive, pathogenic V. cholerae strains by aquatic vehicles. Differential induction of the phages is a clear indication of the impact of environmental pollution and global changes on phage induction. The development of molecular biology techniques offered an accessible gateway for investigating the molecular events leading to genetic diversity in the marine environment. Using nucleic acids as targets, the methods of fingerprinting like ERIC PCR and BOX PCR, revealed that the marine environment harbours potentially pathogenic group of bacteria with genetic diversity. The distribution of virulence associated genes in the environmental isolates of V. cholerae provides tangible material for further investigation. Nucleotide and protein sequence analysis alongwith protein structure prediction aids in better understanding of the variation inalleles of same gene in different ecological niche and its impact on the protein structure for attaining greater fitness of pathogens. The evidences of the co-evolution of virulence genes in toxigenic V. cholerae O1 from different lineages of environmental non-O1 strains is alarming. Transduction studies would indicate that the phenomenon of acquisition of these virulence genes by lateral gene transfer, although rare, is not quite uncommon amongst non-O1/non-O139 V. cholerae and it has a key role in diversification. All these considerations justify the need for an integrated approach towards the development of an effective surveillance system to monitor evolution of V. cholerae strains with epidemic potential. Results presented in this study, if considered together with the mechanism proposed as above, would strongly suggest that the bacteriophage also intervenes as a variable in shaping the cholera bacterium, which cannot be ignored and hinting at imminent future epidemics.

Long-term hyperexcitability of sensory and motor axons in Aplysia californica: Induction by axotomy, serotonin, and transient depolarization

Neuropathic pain is a debilitating neurological disorder that may appear after peripheral nerve trauma and is characterized by persistent, intractable pain. The well-studied phenomenon of long-term hyperexcitability (LTH), in which sensory somata become hyperexcitable following peripheral nerve injury may be important for both chronic pain and long-lasting memory formation, since similar cellular alterations take place after both injury and learning. Though axons have previously been considered simple conducting cables, spontaneous afferent signals develop from some neuromas that form at severed nerve tips, indicating intrinsic changes in sensory axonal excitability may contribute to this intractable pain. Here we show that nerve transection, exposure to serotonin, and transient depolarization induce long-lasting sensory axonal hyperexcitability that is localized to the treated nerve segment and requires local translation of new proteins. Long-lasting functional plasticity may be a general property of axons, since both injured and transiently depolarized motor axons display LTH as well. Axonal hyperexcitability may represent an adaptive mechanism to overcome conduction failure after peripheral injury, but also displays key features shared with cellular analogues of memory including: site-specific changes in neuronal function, dependence on transient, focal depolarization for induction, and requirement for synthesis of new proteins for expression of long-lasting effects. The finding of axonal hyperexcitability after nerve injury sheds new light on the clinical problem of chronic neuropathic pain, and provides more support for the hypothesis that mechanisms of long-term memory storage evolved from primitive adaptive responses to injury. ^

Induction of through-thickness compressive residual stress fields in thin Al2024-T351 plates by laser shock processing

Laser Shock Processing (LSP) has been demonstrated as an emerging technique for the induction of RS’s fields in subsurface layers of relatively thick specimens. However, the LSP treatment of relatively thin specimens brings, as an additional consequence, the possible bending in a process of laser shock forming. This effect poses a new class of problems regarding the attainment of specified RS’s depth profiles in the mentioned type of sheets, and, what can be more critical, an overall deformation of the treated component. The analysis of the problem of LSP treatment for induction of tentatively through-thickness RS’s fields for fatigue life enhancement in relatively thin sheets in a way compatible with reduced overall workpiece deformation due to spring-back self-equilibration is envisaged in this paper. The coupled theoretical-experimental predictive approach developed by the authors has been applied to the specification of LSP treatments for achievement of RS's fields tentatively able to retard crack propagation on normalized specimens. A convergence between numerical code results and experimental results coming from direct RS's measurement is presented as a first step for the treatment of the normalized specimens under optimized conditions and verification of the crack retardation properties virtually induced.

An antibody-interleukin 2 fusion protein overcomes tumor heterogeneity by induction of a cellular immune response.

Antibody-based therapies for cancer rely on the expression of defined antigens on neoplastic cells. However, most tumors display heterogeneity in the expression of such antigens. We demonstrate here that antibody-targeted interleukin 2 delivery overcomes this problem by induction of a host immune response. Immunohistochemical analysis demonstrated that the antibody-interleukin 2 fusion protein-induced eradication of established tumors is mediated by host immune cells, particularly CD8+ T cells. Because of this cellular immune response, antibody-directed interleukin 2 therapy is capable to address established metastases displaying substantial heterogeneity in expression of the targeted antigen. This effector mechanism further enables the induction of partial regressions of large subcutaneous tumors that exceeded more than 5% of the body weight. These observations indicate that antibody-directed cytokine delivery offers an effective new tool for cancer therapy.

An alternative to the Pythagorean rule? Reevaluating Problem 1 of cuneiform tablet BM 34 568

The first problem of the Seleucid mathematical cuneiform tablet BM 34 568 calculates the diagonal of a rectangle from its sides without resorting to the Pythagorean rule. For this reason, it has been a source of discussion among specialists ever since its first publication. but so far no consensus in relation to its mathematical meaning has been attained. This paper presents two new interpretations of the scribe`s procedure. based on the assumption that he was able to reduce the problem to a standard Mesopotamian question about reciprocal numbers. These new interpretations are then linked to interpretations of the Old Babylonian tablet Plimpton 322 and to the presence of Pythagorean triples in the contexts of Old Babylonian and Hellenistic mathematics. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The application of adaptive partitioned random search in feature selection problem

Feature selection is one of important and frequently used techniques in data preprocessing. It can improve the efficiency and the effectiveness of data mining by reducing the dimensions of feature space and removing the irrelevant and redundant information. Feature selection can be viewed as a global optimization problem of finding a minimum set of M relevant features that describes the dataset as well as the original N attributes. In this paper, we apply the adaptive partitioned random search strategy into our feature selection algorithm. Under this search strategy, the partition structure and evaluation function is proposed for feature selection problem. This algorithm ensures the global optimal solution in theory and avoids complete randomness in search direction. The good property of our algorithm is shown through the theoretical analysis.

Value of the Qrs-T Angle in Predicting the Induction of Ventricular Tachyarrhythmias in Patients with Chagas Disease

Background:The QRS-T angle correlates with prognosis in patients with heart failure and coronary artery disease, reflected by an increase in mortality proportional to an increase in the difference between the axes of the QRS complex and T wave in the frontal plane. The value of this correlation in patients with Chagas heart disease is currently unknown.Objective:Determine the correlation of the QRS-T angle and the risk of induction of ventricular tachycardia / ventricular fibrillation (VT / VF) during electrophysiological study (EPS) in patients with Chagas disease.Methods:Case-control study at a tertiary center. Patients without induction of VT / VF on EPS were used as controls. The QRS-T angle was categorized as normal (0-105º), borderline (105-135º) or abnormal (135-180º). Differences between groups for continuous variables were analyzed with the t test or Mann-Whitney test, and for categorical variables with Fisher's exact test. P values < 0.05 were considered significant.Results:Of 116 patients undergoing EPS, 37.9% were excluded due to incomplete information / inactive records or due to the impossibility to correctly calculate the QRS-T angle (presence of left bundle branch block and atrial fibrillation). Of 72 patients included in the study, 31 induced VT / VF on EPS. Of these, the QRS-T angle was normal in 41.9%, borderline in 12.9% and abnormal in 45.2%. Among patients without induction of VT / VF on EPS, the QRS-T angle was normal in 63.4%, borderline in 14.6% and abnormal in 17.1% (p = 0.04). When compared with patients with normal QRS-T angle, those with abnormal angle had a fourfold higher risk of inducing ventricular tachycardia / ventricular fibrillation on EPS [odds ratio (OR) 4; confidence interval (CI) 1.298-12.325; p = 0.028]. After adjustment for other variables such as age, ejection fraction (EF) and QRS size, there was a trend for the abnormal QRS-T angle to identify patients with increased risk of inducing VT / VF during EPS (OR 3.95; CI 0.99-15.82; p = 0.052). The EF also emerged as a predictor of induction of VT / VF: for each point increase in EF, there was a 4% reduction in the rate of sustained ventricular arrhythmia on EPS.Conclusions:Changes in the QRS-T angle and decreases in EF were associated with an increased risk of induction of VT / VF on EPS.

Effects of One Resistance Exercise Session on Vascular Smooth Muscle of Hypertensive Rats

AbstractBackground:Hypertension is a public health problem and increases the incidence of cardiovascular diseases.Objective:To evaluate the effects of a resistance exercise session on the contractile and relaxing mechanisms of vascular smooth muscle in mesenteric arteries of NG-nitro L-arginine methyl ester (L-NAME)-induced hypertensive rats.Methods:Wistar rats were divided into three groups: control (C), hypertensive (H), and exercised hypertensive (EH). Hypertension was induced by administration of 20 mg/kg of L-NAME for 7 days prior to experimental protocols. The resistance exercise protocol consisted of 10 sets of 10 repetitions and intensity of 40% of one repetition maximum. The reactivity of vascular smooth muscle was evaluated by concentration‑response curves to phenylephrine (PHEN), potassium chloride (KCl) and sodium nitroprusside (SNP).Results:Rats treated with L-NAME showed an increase (p < 0.001) in systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) compared to the initial period of induction. No difference in PHEN sensitivity was observed between groups H and EH. Acute resistance exercise reduced (p < 0.001) the contractile response induced by KCl at concentrations of 40 and 60 mM in group EH. Greater (p < 0.01) smooth muscle sensitivity to NPS was observed in group EH as compared to group H.Conclusion:One resistance exercise session reduces the contractile response induced by KCl in addition to increasing the sensitivity of smooth muscle to NO in mesenteric arteries of hypertensive rats.

Treatment rationale and study design for a phase III, double-blind, placebo-controlled study of maintenance pemetrexed plus best supportive care versus best supportive care immediately following induction treatment with pemetrexed plus cisplatin for advanced nonsquamous non-small cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: To improve the efficacy of first-line therapy for advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), additional maintenance chemotherapy may be given after initial induction chemotherapy in patients who did not progress during the initial treatment, rather than waiting for disease progression to administer second-line treatment. Maintenance therapy may consist of an agent that either was or was not present in the induction regimen. The antifolate pemetrexed is efficacious in combination with cisplatin for first-line treatment of advanced NSCLC and has shown efficacy as a maintenance agent in studies in which it was not included in the induction regimen. We designed a phase III study to determine if pemetrexed maintenance therapy improves progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) after cisplatin/pemetrexed induction therapy in patients with advanced nonsquamous NSCLC. Furthermore, since evidence suggests expression levels of thymidylate synthase, the primary target of pemetrexed, may be associated with responsiveness to pemetrexed, translational research will address whether thymidylate synthase expression correlates with efficacy outcomes of pemetrexed. METHODS/DESIGN: Approximately 900 patients will receive four cycles of induction chemotherapy consisting of pemetrexed (500 mg/m2) and cisplatin (75 mg/m2) on day 1 of a 21-day cycle. Patients with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 or 1 who have not progressed during induction therapy will randomly receive (in a 2:1 ratio) one of two double-blind maintenance regimens: pemetrexed (500 mg/m2 on day 1 of a 21-day cycle) plus best supportive care (BSC) or placebo plus BSC. The primary objective is to compare PFS between treatment arms. Secondary objectives include a fully powered analysis of OS, objective tumor response rate, patient-reported outcomes, resource utilization, and toxicity. Tumor specimens for translational research will be obtained from consenting patients before induction treatment, with a second biopsy performed in eligible patients following the induction phase. DISCUSSION: Although using a drug as maintenance therapy that was not used in the induction regimen exposes patients to an agent with a different mechanism of action, evidence suggests that continued use of an agent present in the induction regimen as maintenance therapy enables the identification of patients most likely to benefit from maintenance treatment.

Lack of Discipline in Cape Verdean Secondary Schools: The Need to Better Define the Problem and Develop Strategies to Prevent or Manage the Situation

This research paper has been written with the intention to discuss the problem of discipline in Cape Verdean secondary schools. While many of us discuss the effects that student misbehavior has on the student misbehavior has on the student, school and society as a whole, very few of us seek solutions which would impact on the prevention and management of this problem that each day becomes more complicated and harder to handle. This paper will discuss the need to better define discipline at the school level; identify the causes and factors that aggravate the problem, in addition, to provide what I hope to be useful strategies to better manage the problem as we make the effort to reclaim our schools and better educate our students. My research included surveys completed by teachers and student alike as they baffled over the question: what is discipline and how can we better manage discipline problems at our schools?

Heterogeneity of the induction of HLA-DR expression by human immune interferon on glioma cell lines and their clones.

The modulation of HLA-DR and HLA-A, -B, and -C by human recombinant immune interferon (IFN-gamma) was studied on 10 malignant glioma cell lines established in our laboratory, on 8 clones or subclones derived from these lines, and on a fetal astrocyte cell line. Comparative studies were performed with recombinant leukocyte interferon (IFN-alpha). The results not only confirmed the selective activity of IFN-gamma on the modulation of HLA-DR expression, as opposed to that of IFN-alpha, but also demonstrated a marked heterogeneity in the response of glioma cell lines and their clones to the two types of IFN tested. For example, all 3 clones of an inducible cell line could be modulated to express HLA-DR, whereas only 2 of 5 clones derived from a noninducible line were modulated. This heterogeneity did not seem to be due to the absence of the receptor for IFN-gamma on the surface of these cells, since almost all of the cell lines or clones tested (17 of 19) responded to IFN-gamma by the induction or enhancement of the expression for either HLA-DR or HLA-A, -B, and -C (or both). The heterogeneity of induction was also demonstrated between clones derived from a glioma line that did not express HLA-DR after IFN-gamma treatment. The production of HLA-DR by one of the clones was abundant enough to be confirmed by immunoprecipitation and sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis analysis.

Feasibility of radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy after taxane-based induction chemotherapy for nonoperated locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinomas.

To assess the use of radiotherapy (RT) or concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) following taxane-based induction chemotherapy (T-ICT) in locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (LAHNSCC) and to evaluate the tolerability of CRT after T-ICT. From 01/2006 to 08/2012, 173 LAHNSCC patients treated as a curative intent by T-ICT, followed by definitive RT/CRT were included in this analysis. There was an 86% objective response (OR) after ICT among 154 evaluable patients. Forty-four patients received less than three cycles (25%) and 20 received only one cycle of T-ICT. The 3-year actuarial overall survival (OS) was 49% and there was no OS difference according to the type of ICT (regimen or number of cycle) or the addition of concurrent CT (cisplatin, carboplatin, or cetuximab) to RT. In multivariate analysis (MVA), clinically involved lymph node (cN+), age more than 60 years, the absence of OR after ICT, and performance status of at least 1 predicted for a decreased OS, with hazard ratios (HR) of 2.8, 2.2, 2.1, and 2, respectively. The 3-year actuarial locoregional control (LRC) and distant control (DC) rates were 52 and 73%, respectively. In MVA, the absence of OR after ICT (HR: 3.2), cN+ (HR: 3), and age more than 60 years (HR: 1.7) were prognostic for a lower LRC whereas cN+ (HR: 4.2) and carboplatin-based T-ICT (HR: 2.9) were prognostic for a lower DC. The number of cycles (≤ 2) received during ICT was borderline significant for DC in the MVA (P=0.08). Among patients receiving less than or equal to three cycles of ICT, higher outcomes were observed in patients who received cisplatin-based T-ICT (vs. carboplatin-based T-ICT) or subsequent CRT (vs. RT). T-ICT in our experience, followed by RT or CRT, raises several questions on the role and type of induction, and the efficacy of CRT over RT. The role of RT or CRT following induction, although feasible in these advanced patients, awaits answers from randomized trials.

Impact of lung function changes after induction radiochemotherapy on resected T4 non-small cell lung cancer outcome.

BACKGROUND: Induction radiochemotherapy, followed by resection, for T4 non-small cell lung cancer, has shown promising long-term survival but may be associated with increased postoperative morbidity and death, depending on patient selection. Here, we determined the effect of induction radiochemotherapy on pulmonary function and whether postinduction pulmonary function changes predict hospital morbidity and death and long-term survival. METHODS: A consecutive prospective cohort of 72 patients with T4 N0-2 M0 non-small cell lung cancer managed by radiochemotherapy, followed by resection, is reported. All patients underwent thoracoabdominal computed tomography or fusion positron emission tomography-computed tomography, brain imaging, mediastinoscopy, echocardiography, ventilation-perfusion scintigraphy, and pulmonary function testing before and after induction therapy. Resection was performed if the postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second and diffusion capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide exceeded 30% predicted and if the postoperative maximum oxygen consumption exceeded 10 mL/kg/min. RESULTS: The postoperative 90-day mortality rate was 8% (lobectomy, 2%; pneumonectomy, 21%; p=0.01). All deaths after pneumonectomy occurred after right-sided procedures. The 3-year and 5-year survival was 50% (95% confidence interval, 36% to 62%) and 45% (95% confidence interval, 31% to 57%) and was significantly associated with completeness of resection (p=0.004) and resection type (pneumonectomy vs lobectomy, p=0.01). There was no correlation between postinduction pulmonary function changes and postoperative morbidity or death or long-term survival in patients managed by lobectomy or pneumonectomy. CONCLUSIONS: In properly selected patients with T4 N0-2 M0 non-small cell lung cancer, resection after induction radiochemotherapy can be performed with a reasonable postoperative mortality rate and long-term survival, provided the resection is complete and a right-sided pneumonectomy is avoided. Postinduction pulmonary function changes did not correlate with postoperative morbidity or death or with long-term outcome.