Use of the Supermolecule Approach To Model the Syn and Anti Conformations of Solvated Cyclic 3‘,5‘-Adenosine Monophosphate

The supermolecule approach has been used to model the hydration of cyclic 3‘,5‘-adenosine monophosphate, cAMP. Model building combined with PM3 optimizations predict that the anti conformer of cAMP is capable of hydrogen bonding to an additional solvent water molecule compared to the syn conformer. The addition of one water to the syn superstructure with concurrent rotation of the base about the glycosyl bond to form the anti superstructure leads to an additional enthalpy of stabilization of approximately −6 kcal/mol at the PM3 level. This specific solute−solvent interaction is an example of a large solvent effect, as the method predicts that cAMP has a conformational preference for the anti isomer in solution. This conformational preference results from a change in the number of specific solute−solvent interactions in this system. This prediction could be tested by NMR techniques. The number of waters predicted to be in the first hydration sphere around cAMP is in agreement with the results of hydration studies of nucleotides in DNA. In addition, the detailed picture of solvation about this cyclic nucleotide is in agreement with infrared experimental results.

Hydraulic Conductivity of Model Soil-Bentonite Backfills Subjected to Wet-Dry Cycling

The potential for changes in hydraulic conductivity, k, of two model soil-bentonite (SB) backfills subjected to wet-dry cycling was investigated. The backfills were prepared with the same base soil (clean, fine sand) but different bentonite contents (2.7 and 5.6 dry wt %). Saturation (S), volume change, and k of consolidated backfill specimens (effective stress = 24 kPa) were evaluated over three to seven cycles in which the matric suction, Ym, in the drying stage ranged from 50 to 700 kPa. Both backfills exhibited susceptibility to degradation in k caused by wet-dry cycling. Mean values of k for specimens dried at Ym = 50 kPa (S = 30-60 % after drying) remained low after two cycles, but increased by 5- to 300-fold after three or more cycles. Specimens dried at Ym ≥ 150 kPa (S < 30 % after drying) were less resilient and exhibited 500- to 10 000-fold increases in k after three or more cycles. The greater increases in k for these specimens correlated with greater vertical shrinkage upon drying. The findings suggest that increases in hydraulic conductivity due to wet-dry cycling may be a concern for SB vertical barriers located within the zone of a fluctuating groundwater table.

A Cox Model for Biostatistics of the Future

Professor Sir David R. Cox (DRC) is widely acknowledged as among the most important scientists of the second half of the twentieth century. He inherited the mantle of statistical science from Pearson and Fisher, advanced their ideas, and translated statistical theory into practice so as to forever change the application of statistics in many fields, but especially biology and medicine. The logistic and proportional hazards models he substantially developed, are arguably among the most influential biostatistical methods in current practice. This paper looks forward over the period from DRC's 80th to 90th birthdays, to speculate about the future of biostatistics, drawing lessons from DRC's contributions along the way. We consider "Cox's model" of biostatistics, an approach to statistical science that: formulates scientific questions or quantities in terms of parameters gamma in probability models f(y; gamma) that represent in a parsimonious fashion, the underlying scientific mechanisms (Cox, 1997); partition the parameters gamma = theta, eta into a subset of interest theta and other "nuisance parameters" eta necessary to complete the probability distribution (Cox and Hinkley, 1974); develops methods of inference about the scientific quantities that depend as little as possible upon the nuisance parameters (Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox, 1989); and thinks critically about the appropriate conditional distribution on which to base infrences. We briefly review exciting biomedical and public health challenges that are capable of driving statistical developments in the next decade. We discuss the statistical models and model-based inferences central to the CM approach, contrasting them with computationally-intensive strategies for prediction and inference advocated by Breiman and others (e.g. Breiman, 2001) and to more traditional design-based methods of inference (Fisher, 1935). We discuss the hierarchical (multi-level) model as an example of the future challanges and opportunities for model-based inference. We then consider the role of conditional inference, a second key element of the CM. Recent examples from genetics are used to illustrate these ideas. Finally, the paper examines causal inference and statistical computing, two other topics we believe will be central to biostatistics research and practice in the coming decade. Throughout the paper, we attempt to indicate how DRC's work and the "Cox Model" have set a standard of excellence to which all can aspire in the future.

Early resuscitation with polymerized bovine hemoglobin reverses acidosis, but not peripheral tissue oxygenation, in a severe hamster shock model

Awake hamsters equipped with the dorsal window chamber preparation were subjected to hemorrhage of 50% of the estimated blood volume. Initial resuscitation (25% of estimated blood volume) with polymerized bovine hemoglobin (PBH) or 10% hydroxyethyl starch (HES) occurred in concert with an equivolumetric bleeding to simulate the early, prehospital setting (exchange transfusion). Resuscitation (25% of estimated blood volume) without bleeding was performed with PBH, HES, or autologous red blood cells (HES-RBCs). Peripheral microcirculation, tissue oxygenation, and systemic hemodynamic and blood gas parameters were assessed. After exchange transfusion, base deficit was -8.6 +/- 3.7 mmol/L (PBH) and -5.1 +/- 5.3 mmol/L (HES) (not significant). Functional capillary density was 17% +/- 6% of baseline (PBH) and 31% +/- 11% (HES) (P < 0.05) and arteriolar diameter 73% +/- 3% of baseline (PBH) and 90% + 5% (HES) (P < 0.01). At the end, hemoglobin levels were 3.7 +/- 0.3 g/dL with HES, 8.2 +/- 0.6 g/dL with PBH, and 10.4 +/- 0.8 g/dL with HES-RBCs (P < 0.01 HES vs. PBH and HES-RBCs, P < 0.05 PBH vs. HES-RBCs). Base excess was restored to baseline with PBH and HES-RBCs, but not with HES (P < 0.05). Functional capillary density was 46% +/- 5% of baseline (PBH), 62% + 20% (HES-RBCs), and 36% +/- 19% (HES) (P < 0.01 HES-RBCs vs. HES). Peripheral oxygen delivery and consumption was highest with HES-RBCs, followed by PBH (P < 0.05 HES-RBCs vs. PBH, P < 0.01 HES-RBCs and PBH vs. HES). In conclusion, the PBH led to a correction of base deficit comparable to blood transfusion. However, oxygenation of the peripheral tissue was inferior with PBH. This was attributed to its negative impact on the peripheral microcirculation caused by arteriolar vasoconstriction.

Posterior Simulation in the Generalized Linear Model with Semiparmetric Random Effects

Generalized linear mixed models with semiparametric random effects are useful in a wide variety of Bayesian applications. When the random effects arise from a mixture of Dirichlet process (MDP) model, normal base measures and Gibbs sampling procedures based on the Pólya urn scheme are often used to simulate posterior draws. These algorithms are applicable in the conjugate case when (for a normal base measure) the likelihood is normal. In the non-conjugate case, the algorithms proposed by MacEachern and Müller (1998) and Neal (2000) are often applied to generate posterior samples. Some common problems associated with simulation algorithms for non-conjugate MDP models include convergence and mixing difficulties. This paper proposes an algorithm based on the Pólya urn scheme that extends the Gibbs sampling algorithms to non-conjugate models with normal base measures and exponential family likelihoods. The algorithm proceeds by making Laplace approximations to the likelihood function, thereby reducing the procedure to that of conjugate normal MDP models. To ensure the validity of the stationary distribution in the non-conjugate case, the proposals are accepted or rejected by a Metropolis-Hastings step. In the special case where the data are normally distributed, the algorithm is identical to the Gibbs sampler.

Cerebral revascularization model in a swine

The purpose of this study was to analyze the suitability of the cerebral vasculature of the pig regarding a revascularization procedure. In two 60 kg pigs the femoral artery was exposed and canulated for selective angiography and interventional procedures. After the angiography, the pigs were brought to the animal OR for craniotomy and analysis of the intracranial cerebral arteries and the surgical exposure of the carotid arteries under the microscope. Angiography demonstrated the presence of a true internal-, external carotid artery and vertebral arteries. Both the vertebral and internal carotid arteries are feeding a rete mirabilis both at the cranial base and the cranio-cervical junction. At these sites further advancement of the angiography catheter was not possible. Out of these rete mirabilis, an intracranial carotid artery and an intracranial vertebral artery were formed, respectively. The intracranial cerebral vessels were of the dimension of 1 mm and less. The extracranial portion of the internal carotid artery was 2.5 mm of diameter. From these findings, we conclude that a direct cerebral revascularization procedure of the intracranial vessels is not possible in the swine. However, a global revascularization procedure on the extracranial portion of the internal carotid artery is thus feasible, both using a low- and high-flow anastamosis technique.

A prediction model for personal radio frequency electromagnetic field exposure

Radio frequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) in our daily life are caused by numerous sources such as fixed site transmitters (e.g. mobile phone base stations) or indoor devices (e.g. cordless phones). The objective of this study was to develop a prediction model which can be used to predict mean RF-EMF exposure from different sources for a large study population in epidemiological research. We collected personal RF-EMF exposure measurements of 166 volunteers from Basel, Switzerland, by means of portable exposure meters, which were carried during one week. For a validation study we repeated exposure measurements of 31 study participants 21 weeks after the measurements of the first week on average. These second measurements were not used for the model development. We used two data sources as exposure predictors: 1) a questionnaire on potentially exposure relevant characteristics and behaviors and 2) modeled RF-EMF from fixed site transmitters (mobile phone base stations, broadcast transmitters) at the participants' place of residence using a geospatial propagation model. Relevant exposure predictors, which were identified by means of multiple regression analysis, were the modeled RF-EMF at the participants' home from the propagation model, housing characteristics, ownership of communication devices (wireless LAN, mobile and cordless phones) and behavioral aspects such as amount of time spent in public transports. The proportion of variance explained (R2) by the final model was 0.52. The analysis of the agreement between calculated and measured RF-EMF showed a sensitivity of 0.56 and a specificity of 0.95 (cut-off: 90th percentile). In the validation study, the sensitivity and specificity of the model were 0.67 and 0.96, respectively. We could demonstrate that it is feasible to model personal RF-EMF exposure. Most importantly, our validation study suggests that the model can be used to assess average exposure over several months.

Dynamic Synchronization: A Synchronization Model through Behavioral Reflection

In conventional software applications, synchronization code is typically interspersed with functional code, thereby impacting understandability and maintainability of the code base. At the same time, the synchronization defined statically in the code is not capable of adapting to different runtime situations. We propose a new approach to concurrency control which strictly separates the functional code from the synchronization requirements to be used and which adapts objects to be synchronized dynamically to their environment. First-class synchronization specifications express safety requirements, and a dynamic synchronization system dynamically adapts objects to different runtime situations. We present an overview of a prototype of our approach together with several classical concurrency problems, and we discuss open issues for further research.

Development of an ex vivo protocol to model bone fracture in laying hens resulting from collisions.

Fractures of the keel bone, a bone extending ventrally from the sternum, are a serious health and welfare problem in free range laying hens. Recent findings suggest that a major cause of keel damage within extensive systems is collisions with internal housing structures, though investigative efforts have been hindered by difficulties in examining mechanisms and likely influencing factors at the moment of fracture. The objectives of this study were to develop an ex vivo impact protocol to model bone fracture in hens caused by collision, to assess impact and bird-related factors influencing fracture occurrence and severity, and to identify correlations of mechanical and structural properties between different skeletal sites. We induced keel bone fractures in euthanized hens using a drop-weight impact tester able to generate a range of impact energies, producing fractures that replicate those commonly found in commercial settings. The results demonstrated that impact energies of a similar order to those expected in normal housing were able to produce fractures, and that greater collision energies resulted in an increased likelihood of fractures and of greater severity. Relationships were also seen with keel's lateral surface bone mineral density, and the peak reactive force (strength) at the base of the manubrial spine. Correlations were also identified between the keel and long bones with respect to both strength and bone mineral density. This is the first study able to relate impact and bone characteristics with keel bone fracture at the moment of collision. Greater understanding of these relationships will provide means to reduce levels of breakage and severity in commercial systems.

Detailed analysis of sequence changes occurring during vlsE antigenic variation in the mouse model of Borrelia burgdorferi infection.

Lyme disease Borrelia can infect humans and animals for months to years, despite the presence of an active host immune response. The vls antigenic variation system, which expresses the surface-exposed lipoprotein VlsE, plays a major role in B. burgdorferi immune evasion. Gene conversion between vls silent cassettes and the vlsE expression site occurs at high frequency during mammalian infection, resulting in sequence variation in the VlsE product. In this study, we examined vlsE sequence variation in B. burgdorferi B31 during mouse infection by analyzing 1,399 clones isolated from bladder, heart, joint, ear, and skin tissues of mice infected for 4 to 365 days. The median number of codon changes increased progressively in C3H/HeN mice from 4 to 28 days post infection, and no clones retained the parental vlsE sequence at 28 days. In contrast, the decrease in the number of clones with the parental vlsE sequence and the increase in the number of sequence changes occurred more gradually in severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) mice. Clones containing a stop codon were isolated, indicating that continuous expression of full-length VlsE is not required for survival in vivo; also, these clones continued to undergo vlsE recombination. Analysis of clones with apparent single recombination events indicated that recombinations into vlsE are nonselective with regard to the silent cassette utilized, as well as the length and location of the recombination event. Sequence changes as small as one base pair were common. Fifteen percent of recovered vlsE variants contained "template-independent" sequence changes, which clustered in the variable regions of vlsE. We hypothesize that the increased frequency and complexity of vlsE sequence changes observed in clones recovered from immunocompetent mice (as compared with SCID mice) is due to rapid clearance of relatively invariant clones by variable region-specific anti-VlsE antibody responses.

Detailed analysis of sequence changes occurring during vlsE antigenic variation in the mouse model of Borrelia burgdorferi infection.

Lyme disease Borrelia can infect humans and animals for months to years, despite the presence of an active host immune response. The vls antigenic variation system, which expresses the surface-exposed lipoprotein VlsE, plays a major role in B. burgdorferi immune evasion. Gene conversion between vls silent cassettes and the vlsE expression site occurs at high frequency during mammalian infection, resulting in sequence variation in the VlsE product. In this study, we examined vlsE sequence variation in B. burgdorferi B31 during mouse infection by analyzing 1,399 clones isolated from bladder, heart, joint, ear, and skin tissues of mice infected for 4 to 365 days. The median number of codon changes increased progressively in C3H/HeN mice from 4 to 28 days post infection, and no clones retained the parental vlsE sequence at 28 days. In contrast, the decrease in the number of clones with the parental vlsE sequence and the increase in the number of sequence changes occurred more gradually in severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) mice. Clones containing a stop codon were isolated, indicating that continuous expression of full-length VlsE is not required for survival in vivo; also, these clones continued to undergo vlsE recombination. Analysis of clones with apparent single recombination events indicated that recombinations into vlsE are nonselective with regard to the silent cassette utilized, as well as the length and location of the recombination event. Sequence changes as small as one base pair were common. Fifteen percent of recovered vlsE variants contained "template-independent" sequence changes, which clustered in the variable regions of vlsE. We hypothesize that the increased frequency and complexity of vlsE sequence changes observed in clones recovered from immunocompetent mice (as compared with SCID mice) is due to rapid clearance of relatively invariant clones by variable region-specific anti-VlsE antibody responses.

Detection and sequence analysis of a nickel-induced mutation in a retroviral model system

We have developed a novel way to assess the mutagenicity of environmentally important metal carcinogens, such as nickel, by creating a positive selection system based upon the conditional expression of a retroviral transforming gene. The target gene is the v-mos gene in MuSVts110, a murine retrovirus possessing a growth temperature dependent defect in expression of the transforming gene due to viral RNA splicing. In normal rat kidney cells infected with MuSVts110 (6m2 cells), splicing of the MuSVts110 RNA to form the mRNA from which the transforming protein, p85$\sp{\rm gag-mos}$, is translated is growth-temperature dependent, occurring at 33 C and below but not at 39 C and above. This splicing "defect" is mediated by cis-acting viral sequences. Nickel chloride treatment of 6m2 cells followed by growth at 39 C, allowed the selection of "revertant" cells which constitutively express p85$\sp{\rm gag-mos}$ due to stable changes in the viral RNA splicing phenotype, suggesting that nickel, a carcinogen whose mutagenicity has not been well established, could induce mutations in mammalian genes. We also show by direct sequencing of PCR-amplified integrated MuSVts110 DNA from a 6m2 nickel-revertant cell line that the nickel-induced mutation affecting the splicing phenotype is a cis-acting 70-base duplication of a region of the viral DNA surrounding the 3$\sp\prime$ splice site. These findings provide the first example of the molecular basis for a nickel-induced DNA lesion and establish the mutagenicity of this potent carcinogen. ^

Glacier Calving: A Numerical Model of Forces in the Calving-Speed/Water-Depth Relation

Empirical data suggest that the race of calving of grounded glaciers terminating in water is directly proportional to the water depth. Important controls on calving may be the extent to which a calving face tends to become oversteepened by differential flow within the ice and the extent to which bending moments promote extrusion and bottom crevassing at the base of a calving face. Numerical modelling suggests that the tendency to become oversteepened increases roughly linearly with water depth. In addition, extending longitudinal deviatoric stresses at the base of a calving face increase with water depth. These processes provide a possible physical explanation for the observed calving-rate/water-depth relation.

High-flow venous pouch aneurysm in the rabbit carotid artery: A model for large aneurysms.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Currently one of the most widely used models for the development of endovascular techniques and coiling devices for treatment of aneurysm is the elastase-induced aneurysm model in the rabbit carotid artery. Microsurgical techniques for creating an aneurysm with a venous pouch have also been established, although both techniques usually result in aneurysms less than 1 cm in diameter. We investigated whether an increase in blood flow toward the neck would produce larger aneurysms in a microsurgical venous pouch model. MATERIALS AND METHODS Microsurgical operations were performed on 11 New Zealand white rabbits. Both carotid arteries and the right jugular vein were dissected, and the right carotid artery was temporarily clipped followed by an arteriotomy. The left carotid artery was also clipped proximally, ligated distally, and sutured onto the proximal half of the arteriotomy in the right carotid artery. The venous graft was sutured onto the distal half of the arteriotomy. Digital subtraction angiography was also performed. RESULTS Angiography showed patent anastomosed vessels and aneurysms in the seven surviving rabbits. Mean aneurysm measurements among surviving rabbits with patent vessels were: 13.9 mm length, 9.3 mm width, and neck diameter 4.7 mm. The resulting mean aspect ratio was 3.35 and the mean bottleneck ratio was 3.05. CONCLUSION A large venous graft and increased blood flow toward the base of the aneurysm seem to be key factors in the creation of large venous pouch aneurysms. These large aneurysms allow testing of endovascular devices designed for large and giant aneurysms.

STUDIES ON THE PATTERNS OF NUCLEOTIDE AND AMINO ACID SUBSTITUTION (ELECTROPHORESIS, MUTATION RATE, SELECTION, BASE, COMPOSITION)

Theoretical and empirical studies were conducted on the pattern of nucleotide and amino acid substitution in evolution, taking into account the effects of mutation at the nucleotide level and purifying selection at the amino acid level. A theoretical model for predicting the evolutionary change in electrophoretic mobility of a protein was also developed by using information on the pattern of amino acid substitution. The specific problems studied and the main results obtained are as follows: (1) Estimation of the pattern of nucleotide substitution in DNA nuclear genomes. The pattern of point mutations and nucleotide substitutions among the four different nucleotides are inferred from the evolutionary changes of pseudogenes and functional genes, respectively. Both patterns are non-random, the rate of change varying considerably with nucleotide pair, and that in both cases transitions occur somewhat more frequently than transversions. In protein evolution, substitution occurs more often between amino acids with similar physico-chemical properties than between dissimilar amino acids. (2) Estimation of the pattern of nucleotide substitution in RNA genomes. The majority of mutations in retroviruses accumulate at the reverse transcription stage. Selection at the amino acid level is very weak, and almost non-existent between synonymous codons. The pattern of mutation is very different from that in DNA genomes. Nevertheless, the pattern of purifying selection at the amino acid level is similar to that in DNA genomes, although selection intensity is much weaker. (3) Evaluation of the determinants of molecular evolutionary rates in protein-coding genes. Based on rates of nucleotide substitution for mammalian genes, the rate of amino acid substitution of a protein is determined by its amino acid composition. The content of glycine is shown to correlate strongly and negatively with the rate of substitution. Empirical formulae, called indices of mutability, are developed in order to predict the rate of molecular evolution of a protein from data on its amino acid sequence. (4) Studies on the evolutionary patterns of electrophoretic mobility of proteins. A theoretical model was constructed that predicts the electric charge of a protein at any given pH and its isoelectric point from data on its primary and quaternary structures. Using this model, the evolutionary change in electrophoretic mobilities of different proteins and the expected amount of electrophoretically hidden genetic variation were studied. In the absence of selection for the pI value, proteins will on the average evolve toward a mildly basic pI. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.) ^