A dynamic model with on-line identification for rotary sugar drying processes

A dynamic modelling methodology, which combines on-line variable estimation and parameter identification with physical laws to form an adaptive model for rotary sugar drying processes, is developed in this paper. In contrast to the conventional rate-based models using empirical transfer coefficients, the heat and mass transfer rates are estimated by using on-line measurements in the new model. Furthermore, a set of improved sectional solid transport equations with localized parameters is developed in this work to reidentified on-line using measurement data, the model is able to closely track the dynamic behaviour of rotary drying processes within a broad range of operational conditions. This adaptive model is validated against experimental data obtained from a pilot-scale rotary sugar dryer. The proposed modelling methodology can be easily incorporated into nonlinear model based control schemes to form a unified modelling and control framework.place the global correlation for the computation of solid retention time. Since a number of key model variables and parameters are identified on-line using measurement data, the model is able to closely track the dynamic behaviour of rotary drying processes within a broad range of operational conditions. This adaptive model is validated against experimental data obtained from a pilot-scale rotary sugar dryer. The proposed modelling methodology can be easily incorporated into nonlinear model based control schemes to form a unified modelling and control framework.

Monitoring the composition and form of urban environments based on the vegetation-impervious surface-soil (VIS) model by sub-pixel analysis techniques

The majority of the world's population now resides in urban environments and information on the internal composition and dynamics of these environments is essential to enable preservation of certain standards of living. Remotely sensed data, especially the global coverage of moderate spatial resolution satellites such as Landsat, Indian Resource Satellite and Systeme Pour I'Observation de la Terre (SPOT), offer a highly useful data source for mapping the composition of these cities and examining their changes over time. The utility and range of applications for remotely sensed data in urban environments could be improved with a more appropriate conceptual model relating urban environments to the sampling resolutions of imaging sensors and processing routines. Hence, the aim of this work was to take the Vegetation-Impervious surface-Soil (VIS) model of urban composition and match it with the most appropriate image processing methodology to deliver information on VIS composition for urban environments. Several approaches were evaluated for mapping the urban composition of Brisbane city (south-cast Queensland, Australia) using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper data and 1:5000 aerial photographs. The methods evaluated were: image classification; interpretation of aerial photographs; and constrained linear mixture analysis. Over 900 reference sample points on four transects were extracted from the aerial photographs and used as a basis to check output of the classification and mixture analysis. Distinctive zonations of VIS related to urban composition were found in the per-pixel classification and aggregated air-photo interpretation; however, significant spectral confusion also resulted between classes. In contrast, the VIS fraction images produced from the mixture analysis enabled distinctive densities of commercial, industrial and residential zones within the city to be clearly defined, based on their relative amount of vegetation cover. The soil fraction image served as an index for areas being (re)developed. The logical match of a low (L)-resolution, spectral mixture analysis approach with the moderate spatial resolution image data, ensured the processing model matched the spectrally heterogeneous nature of the urban environments at the scale of Landsat Thematic Mapper data.

Adjustment of homeless adolescents to a crisis shelter: Application of a stress and coping model

The present study examined the utility of a stress and coping model of adaptation to a homeless shelter among homeless adolescents. Seventy-eight homeless adolescents were interviewed and completed self-administered scales at Time 1 (day of shelter entry) and Time 2 (day of discharge). The mean duration of stay at the shelter was 7.23 days (SD = 7.01). Predictors included appraisal (threat and self-efficacy), coping resources, and coping strategies (productive, nonproductive, and reference to others coping). Adjustment outcomes were Time I measures of global distress, physical health, clinician-and youthworker- rated social adjustment, and externalizing behavior and Time 2 youthworker-rated social adjustment and goal achievement. Results of hierarchical regression analyses indicated that after controlling for the effects of relevant background variables (number of other shelters visited, sexual, emotional, and physical abuse), measures of coping resources, appraisal, and coping strategies evidenced distinct relations with measures of adjustment in ways consistent with the model's predictions with few exceptions. In cross-sectional analyses better Time I adjustment was related to reports of higher levels of coping resources, self-efficacy beliefs, and productive coping strategies, and reports of lower levels of threat appraisal and nonproductive coping strategies. Prospective analyses showed a link between reports of higher levels of reference to others coping strategies and greater goal achievement and, unexpectedly, an association between lower self-efficacy beliefs and better Time 2 youthworker-rated social adjustment. Hence, whereas prospective analyses provide only limited support for the use of a stress and coping model in explaining the adjustment of homeless adolescents to a crisis shelter, cross-sectional findings provide stronger support.

Global job satisfaction and facet description: The moderating role of facet importance

Recent research support sLocke's (1976) model of facet satisfaction in which the range of affect of objectively defined facet descriptions is moderated by subjective evaluations of facet importance (McFarlin & Rice, 1992). This study examined the utility of Locke's moderated model of face t satisfaction for the prediction of organizationally important global measures of job satisfaction. A large dataset of two groups of workers allowed testing over different time periods and across a broad range of satisfaction measures. The hypothesis derived from Locke's model, that global satisfaction would represent a linear function of facet satisfaction (i.e., facet description x facet importance), was not supported. Instead, a simple (have-want) discrepancy model (operationalized as facet description) provided the most consistent set of predictors. The results suggests that workers, when providing global measures of job satisfaction, may use cognitive heuristics to reduce the complexity of facet description x importance calculations. The implications of these data for Locke's model and directions for future research are outlined.

SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Methodologies for calibration and predictive analysis of a watershed model

The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.

Conception of a flexible integrator and lean model for integrated management systems

Management systems standards (MSSs) have developed in an unprecedented manner in the last few years. These MSS cover a wide array of different disciplines, aims and activities of organisations. Also, organisations are populated with an enormous diversity of independent management systems (MSs). An integrated management system (IMS) tends to integrate some or all components of the business. Maximising their integration in one coherent and efficient MS is increasingly a strategic priority and constitutes an opportunity for businesses to be more competitive and consequently, promote its sustainable success. Those organisations that are quicker and more efficient in their integration and continuous improvement will have a competitive advantage in obtaining sustainable value in our global and competitive business world. Several scholars have proposed various theoretical approaches regarding the integration of management sub-systems, leading to the conclusion that there is no common practice for all organisations as they encompass different characteristics. One other author shows that several tangible and intangible gains for organisations, as well as to their internal and external stakeholders, are achieved with the integration of the individual standardised MSs. The purpose of this work was to conceive a model, Flexible, Integrator and Lean for IMSs, according to ISO 9001 for quality; ISO 14001 for environment and OHSAS 18001 for occupational health and safety (IMS–QES), that can be adapted and progressively assimilate other MSs, such as, SA 8000/ISO 26000 for social accountability, ISO 31000 for risk management and ISO/IEC 27001 for information security management, among others. The IMS–QES model was designed in the real environment of an industrial Portuguese small and medium enterprise, that over the years has been adopting, gradually, in whole or in part, individual MSSs. The developed model is based on a preliminary investigation conducted through a questionnaire. The strategy and research methods have taken into consideration the case study. Among the main findings of the survey we highlight: the creation of added value for the business through the elimination of several organisational wastes; the integrated management of the sustainability components; the elimination of conflicts between independent MS; dialogue with the main stakeholders and commitment to their ongoing satisfaction and increased contribution to the company’s competitiveness; and greater valorisation and motivation of employees as a result of the expansion of their skill base, actions and responsibilities, with their consequent empowerment. A set of key performance indicators (KPIs) constitute the support, in a perspective of business excellence, to the follow up of the organisation’s progress towards the vision and achievement of the defined objectives in the context of each component of the IMS model. The conceived model had many phases and the one presented in this work is the last required for the integration of quality, environment, safety and others individual standardised MSs. Globally, the investigation results, by themselves, justified and prioritised the conception of an IMS–QES model, to be implemented at the company where the investigation was conducted, but also a generic model of an IMS, which may be more flexible, integrator and lean as possible, potentiating the efficiency, added value both in the present and, fundamentally, for future.

A generic model for integration of Quality, Environment and Safety Management Systems

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a generic model of Integrated Management System of Quality, Environment and Safety (IMS-QES) that can be adapted and progressively to assimilate various Management Systems, of which highlights: ISO 9001 for Quality; ISO 14001 for Environment; OHSAS 18001 for Occupational Health and Safety. Design/methodology/approach – The model was designed in the real environment of a Portuguese Organization and 160 employees were surveyed. The rate response was equal to 86 percent. The conceived model was implemented in a first phase for the integration of Quality, Environment and Safety Management Systems. Findings – Among the main findings of the survey the paper highlights: the elimination of conflicts between individual systems with resources optimization; creation of added value to the business by eliminating several types of wastes; the integrated management of sustainability components in a global market; the improvement of partnerships with suppliers of goods and services; reducing the number of internal and external audits. Originality/value – This case study is one of the first Portuguese empirical researches about IMS-QES and the paper believes that it can be useful in the creation of a Portuguese guideline for integration, namely the Quality Management Systems; Environmental Management Systems and Occupational Health and Safety Management Systems among others.

Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission

OBJECTIVE: To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission. METHODS: The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.

Multi index model - uma abordagem para aplicação ao mercado accionista em Portugal

O mercado accionista, de uma forma global, tem-se revelado nos últimos tempos uma das principais fontes de incentivo ao mercado de valores mobiliários. O seu impacto junto do público em geral é enorme e a sua importância para as empresas é vital. Interessa, então, perceber como é que a teoria financeira tem obordado a avaliação e a compreensão do processo de formação de uma cotação. Desde os anos 50 até aos dias de hoje, interessa perceber como é que os diferentes autores têm tratado esta abordagem e quais os resultados deste confronto. Interessa sobretudo perceber o abordogem de Stephen Ross e a teoria do arbitragem. Na sequência desta obordagem e com o aparecimento do Multi Index Model, passou a ser possível extimar com maior precisão a evolução da cotação, na medida em que esta estaria dependente de um vasto conjunto de variavéis, que abragem uma vasta área de influência. O contributo de Ross é por isso decisivo. No final interessa reter a melhor técnica e teoria, que defende os interesses do investidor. Face o isto resta, então, saber qual a melhor técnica estatística para proceder a estes estudos empíricos.

Constructing Cultural Policies in Romania. A possible model for communicating the national value system

The premise of this paper is that a model for communicating the national value system must start from a strategy aimed at the identification, the cultivation and communication of values that give consistency to the value system. The analysis concentrates on the elements of such strategies and on the implications of applying a value communication program on the identity architecture of the community. The paper will also discuss the role of the national value system in the context of the emerging global culture, where the individual has the power to create his/her own hybrid cultural model.

A feedback-based decentralised coordination model for distributed open real-time systems

Moving towards autonomous operation and management of increasingly complex open distributed real-time systems poses very significant challenges. This is particularly true when reaction to events must be done in a timely and predictable manner while guaranteeing Quality of Service (QoS) constraints imposed by users, the environment, or applications. In these scenarios, the system should be able to maintain a global feasible QoS level while allowing individual nodes to autonomously adapt under different constraints of resource availability and input quality. This paper shows how decentralised coordination of a group of autonomous interdependent nodes can emerge with little communication, based on the robust self-organising principles of feedback. Positive feedback is used to reinforce the selection of the new desired global service solution, while negative feedback discourages nodes to act in a greedy fashion as this adversely impacts on the provided service levels at neighbouring nodes. The proposed protocol is general enough to be used in a wide range of scenarios characterised by a high degree of openness and dynamism where coordination tasks need to be time dependent. As the reported results demonstrate, it requires less messages to be exchanged and it is faster to achieve a globally acceptable near-optimal solution than other available approaches.

Enabling Global Experiments With Interactive Reconfiguration And Steering By Multiple Users

In global scientific experiments with collaborative scenarios involving multinational teams there are big challenges related to data access, namely data movements are precluded to other regions or Clouds due to the constraints on latency costs, data privacy and data ownership. Furthermore, each site is processing local data sets using specialized algorithms and producing intermediate results that are helpful as inputs to applications running on remote sites. This paper shows how to model such collaborative scenarios as a scientific workflow implemented with AWARD (Autonomic Workflow Activities Reconfigurable and Dynamic), a decentralized framework offering a feasible solution to run the workflow activities on distributed data centers in different regions without the need of large data movements. The AWARD workflow activities are independently monitored and dynamically reconfigured and steering by different users, namely by hot-swapping the algorithms to enhance the computation results or by changing the workflow structure to support feedback dependencies where an activity receives feedback output from a successor activity. A real implementation of one practical scenario and its execution on multiple data centers of the Amazon Cloud is presented including experimental results with steering by multiple users.

A coinfection model for HIV and HCV

We study a mathematical model for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatites C virus (HCV) coinfection. The model predicts four distinct equilibria: the disease free, the HIV endemic, the HCV endemic, and the full endemic equilibria. The local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium was calculated for the full model and the HIV and HCV submodels. We present numerical simulations of the full model where the distinct equilibria can be observed. We show simulations of the qualitative changes of the dynamical behavior of the full model for variation of relevant parameters. From the results of the model, we infer possible measures that could be implemented in order to reduce the number of infected individuals.

Proposal for shared services performance management model applied to portugueses public administration

Comunicação apresentada no 8º Congresso Nacional de Administração Pública - Desafios e Soluções, em Carcavelos de 21 a 22 de Novembro de 2011.