The Timing of Asset Trade and Optimal Policy in Dynamic Open Economies

Using a standard open economy DSGE model, it is shown that the timing of asset trade relative to policy decisions has a potentially important impact on the welfare evaluation of monetary policy at the individual country level. If asset trade in the initial period takes place before the announcement of policy, a national policymaker can choose a policy rule which reduces the work effort of households in the policymaker’s country in the knowledge that consumption is fully insured by optimally chosen international portfolio positions. But if asset trade takes place after the policy announcement, this insurance is absent and households in the policymaker’s country bear the full consumption consequences of the chosen policy rule. The welfare incentives faced by national policymakers are very different between the two cases. Numerical examples confirm that asset market timing has a significant impact on the optimal policy rule.

Distributional and Poverty Consequences of Globalization: A Dynamic Comparative Analysis for Developing Countries

This study examines the impact of globalization on cross-country inequality and poverty using a panel data set for 65 developing counties, over the period 1970-2008. With separate modelling for poverty and inequality, explicit control for financial intermediation, and comparative analysis for developing countries, the study attempts to provide a deeper understanding of cross country variations in income inequality and poverty. The major findings of the study are five fold. First, a non-monotonic relationship between income distribution and the level of economic development holds in all samples of countries. Second, both openness to trade and FDI do not have a favourable effect on income distribution in developing countries. Third, high financial liberalization exerts a negative and significant influence on income distribution in developing countries. Fourth, inflation seems to distort income distribution in all sets of countries. Finally, the government emerges as a major player in impacting income distribution in developing countries.

Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging

We forecast quarterly US inflation based on the generalized Phillips curve using econometric methods which incorporate dynamic model averaging. These methods not only allow for coe¢ cients to change over time, but also allow for the entire forecasting model to change over time. We nd that dynamic model averaging leads to substantial forecasting improvements over simple benchmark regressions and more sophisticated approaches such as those using time varying coe¢ cient models. We also provide evidence on which sets of predictors are relevant for forecasting in each period.

Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging

We forecast quarterly US inflation based on the generalized Phillips curve using econometric methods which incorporate dynamic model averaging. These methods not only allow for coe¢ cients to change over time, but also allow for the entire forecasting model to change over time. We nd that dynamic model averaging leads to substantial forecasting improvements over simple benchmark regressions and more sophisticated approaches such as those using time varying coe¢ cient models. We also provide evidence on which sets of predictors are relevant for forecasting in each period.

Alliance evolutions over the course of short-term dynamic psychotherapy: A case study

Background: Alliance evolutions, i.e. ruptures and resolutions over the course of psychotherapy, have been shown to be important descriptive features in different forms of psychotherapy, and in particular in psychodynamic psychotherapy. This case study of a client presenting elements of adjustment disorder undergoing short-term dynamic psychotherapy is drawn from a systematic naturalistic study and aims at illustrating, on a session-by-session-level, the processes of alliance ruptures and resolutions, by comparing both the client's and the therapist's perspectives. Method: Two episodes of alliance evolution were more fully studied, in relation to the evolution of transference, as well as the client's defensive functioning and core conflictual theme. These concepts were measured by means of valid, reliable observer-rater methods, based on session transcripts: the Defense Mechanisms Rating Scales (DMRS) for defensive functioning and the Core Conflictual Relationship Theme (CCRT) for the conflicts. Alliance was measured after each session using the Helping Alliance questionnaire (HAq-II). Results: The results indicated that these episodes of alliance rupture and resolutions may be understood as key moments of the whole therapeutic process reflecting the client's main relationship stakes. Illustrations are provided based on the client's in-session processes and related to the alliance development over the course of the entire therapy.

Co-movements in Real Effective Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model

We analyze and quantify co-movements in real effective exchange rates while considering the regional location of countries. More specifically, using the dynamic hierarchical factor model (Moench et al. (2011)), we decompose exchange rate movements into several latent components; worldwide and two regional factors as well as country-specific elements. Then, we provide evidence that the worldwide common factor is closely related to monetary policies in large advanced countries while regional common factors tend to be captured by those in the rest of the countries in a region. However, a substantial proportion of the variation in the real exchange rates is reported to be country-specific; even in Europe country-specific movements exceed worldwide and regional common factors.

A Simple Characterization of Dynamic Completeness in Continuous Time

This paper investigates dynamic completeness of financial markets in which the underlying risk process is a multi-dimensional Brownian motion and the risky securities dividends geometric Brownian motions. A sufficient condition, that the instantaneous dispersion matrix of the relative dividends is non-degenerate, was established recently in the literature for single-commodity, pure-exchange economies with many heterogenous agents, under the assumption that the intermediate flows of all dividends, utilities, and endowments are analytic functions. For the current setting, a different mathematical argument in which analyticity is not needed shows that a slightly weaker condition suffices for general pricing kernels. That is, dynamic completeness obtains irrespectively of preferences, endowments, and other structural elements (such as whether or not the budget constraints include only pure exchange, whether or not the time horizon is finite with lump-sum dividends available on the terminal date, etc.)

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Dynamic Copulas

We study the asymmetric and dynamic dependence between financial assets and demonstrate, from the perspective of risk management, the economic significance of dynamic copula models. First, we construct stock and currency portfolios sorted on different characteristics (ex ante beta, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flows), and find substantial evidence of dynamic evolution between the high beta (respectively, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios and the low beta (coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios. Second, using three different dependence measures, we show the presence of asymmetric dependence between these characteristic-sorted portfolios. Third, we use a dynamic copula framework based on Creal et al. (2013) and Patton (2012) to forecast the portfolio Value-at-Risk of long-short (high minus low) equity and FX portfolios. We use several widely used univariate and multivariate VaR models for the purpose of comparison. Backtesting our methodology, we find that the asymmetric dynamic copula models provide more accurate forecasts, in general, and, in particular, perform much better during the recent financial crises, indicating the economic significance of incorporating dynamic and asymmetric dependence in risk management.

Dynamic Relational Contracts under Complete Information

This paper considers a long-term relationship between two agents who both undertake a costly action or investment that together produces a joint benefit. Agents have an opportunity to expropriate some of the joint benefit for their own use. Two cases are considered: (i) where agents are risk neutral and are subject to limited liability constraints and (ii) where agents are risk averse, have quasi-linear preferences in consumption and actions but where limited liability constraints do not bind. The question asked is how to structure the investments and division of the surplus over time so as to avoid expropriation. In the risk-neutral case, there may be an initial phase in which one agent overinvests and the other underinvests. However, both actions and surplus converge monotonically to a stationary state in which there is no overinvestment and surplus is at its maximum subject to the constraints. In the risk-averse case, there is no overinvestment. For this case, we establish that dynamics may or may not be monotonic depending on whether or not it is possible to sustain a first-best allocation. If the first-best allocation is not sustainable, then there is a trade-off between risk sharing and surplus maximization. In general, surplus will not be at its constrained maximum even in the long run.

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Market Risk with Dynamic Asymmetric Copula

We investigate the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure between equity portfolios from the US and UK. We demonstrate the statistical significance of dynamic asymmetric copula models in modelling and forecasting market risk. First, we construct “high-minus-low" equity portfolios sorted on beta, coskewness, and cokurtosis. We find substantial evidence of dynamic and asymmetric dependence between characteristic-sorted portfolios. Second, we consider a dynamic asymmetric copula model by combining the generalized hyperbolic skewed t copula with the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model to capture both the multivariate non-normality and the dynamic and asymmetric dependence between equity portfolios. We demonstrate its usefulness by evaluating the forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for the high-minus-low portfolios. From back-testing, e find consistent and robust evidence that our dynamic asymmetric copula model provides the most accurate forecasts, indicating the importance of incorporating the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure in risk management.

Early antibiotic administration affects the gut barrier function and the immune response to oral antigen in suckling rats

Abstract: The increasingly high hygienic standards characterizing westernized societies correlate with an increasingly high prevalence of allergic disease. Initially based on these observations, the hygiene hypothesis postulates that reduced microbial stimulation during infancy impairs the immune system development and increases the risk of allergy. Moreover, there is increasing evidence that the crosstalk existing between the intestine and the resident microbiota is crucial for gut homeostasis. In particular, bacterial colonization of the gut affects the integrity of the gut barrier and stimulates the development of the gut associated immune tissue, both phenomena being essential for the immune system to mount a controlled response to food antigens. Therefore, alterations in the microbial colonization process, by compromising the barrier homeostasis, may increase the risk of food allergy. In this context, antibiotic treatment, frequently prescribed during infancy, affects gut colonization by bacteria. However, little is known about the impact of alterations in the colonization process on the maturation of the gut barrier and on the immunological response to oral antigens. The objective of this work was to determine the impact of a commercial antibiotic preparation employed in pediatric settings on the gut barrier status at the critical period of the suckling/weaning transition and to evaluate the physiological consequences of this treatment in terms of immune response to food antigens. We established an antibiotic-treated suckling rat model relevant to the pediatric population in terms of type, dose and route of administration of the antibiotic and of changes in the patterns of microbial colonization. Oral tolerance to a novel luminal antigen (ovalbumin) was impaired when the antigen was introduced during antibiotic treatment. These results paralleled to alterations in the intestinal permeability to macromolecules and reduced intestinal expression of genes coding for the major histocomptatibility complex II molecules, which suggest a reduced capacity of antigen handling and presentation in the intestine of the antibiotic-treated animals. In addition, low luminal IgA levels and reduced intestinal expression of genes coding for antimicrobial proteins suggest that protection against pathogens was reduced under antibiotic treatment. In conclusion, we observed in suckling rats that treatment with abroad-spectrum antibiotic commonly used in pediatric practices reduced the capacity of the immune system to develop tolerance. The impact of the antibiotic treatment on the immune response to the antigen-was likely mediated by the alterations of the gut microbiota, through impairment in the mechanisms of antigen handling and presentation. This work reinforces the body of data supporting a key role of the intestinal microbiota modulating the risk of allergy development and leads us to propose that the introduction of new food antigens should be avoided during antibiotic treatment in infants. Résumé: L'augmentation du niveau d'hygiène caractérisant les sociétés occidentales semble être fortement corrélée avec l'augmentation des cas d'allergie dans ces pays. De cette observation est née l'hypothèse qu'une diminution des stimuli microbiens pendant l'enfance modifie le développement du système immunitaire augmentant ainsi le risque d'allergie. En ce sens, un nombre croissant de données indiquent que les interactions existant entre l'intestin et les bactéries résidantes sont cruciales pour l'équilibre du système. En effet, la présence de bactéries dans l'intestin affecte l'intégrité de sa fonction de barrière et stimule le développement du système immunitaire intestinal. Ces deux paramètres étant essentiels à la mise en place d'une réponse contrôlée vis à vis d'un antigène reçu oralement, toute modification du processus naturel de colonisation compromettant l'équilibre intestinal pourrait augmenter le risque d'allergie. Les traitements aux antibiotiques, fréquemment prescrits en pédiatrie, modifient de façon conséquente le processus de colonisation bactérienne. Cependant peu de données existent concernant l'impact d'une altération du processus de colonisation sur la maturation de la barrière intestinale et de la réponse immunitaire dirigée contre un antigène. L'objectif de ce travail était de déterminer l'impact d'un antibiotique commercial et employé en pédiatrie sur l'état de la barrière intestinale au moment critique du sevrage et d'évaluer les conséquences physiologiques d'un tel traitement sur la réponse immune à un antigène alimentaire. Nous avons mis en place un modèle de rats allaités, traités à l'antibiotique, le plus proche possible des pratiques pédiatriques, en terme de nature, dose et voie d'administration de l'antibiotique. Nous avons constaté que l'établissement de la tolérance orale à un nouvel antigène (l'ovalbumine) est altéré quand celui-ci est donné pour la première fois au cours du traitement antibiotique. Ces résultats coïncident avec une diminution de la perméabilité intestinale aux macromolécules, ainsi qu'avec une diminution de l'expression des gènes codant pour les molécules du complexe majeur d'histocomptatibilité de classe II, suggérant une modification de l'apprêtement et de la présentation de l'antigène au niveau intestinal chez les rats traités à l'antibiotique. De plus, un faible taux d'IgA et une diminution de l'expression des gènes codant pour des protéines antimicrobiennes, observés après l'administration d'antibiotique, laissent à penser que la protection contre un pathogène est diminuée lors d'un traitement antibiotique. En conclusion, nous avons observé qu'un traitement antibiotique à large spectre d'activité, couramment utilisé en pédiatrie, réduit la capacité d'induction de la tolérance orale chez le rat allaité. L'impact du traitement antibiotique sur la réponse immune semble induite par l'altération de la flore intestinale via son effet sur les mécanismes d'apprêtement et de présentation de l'antigène. Ce travail renforce l'ensemble des données existantes qui accorde à la flore intestinale un rôle clef dans la modulation du risque de développement d'allergie et nous amène à recommander d'éviter l'introduction d'un nouvel aliment lorsqu'un enfant est traité aux antibiotiques.

Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Abstract. Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Because conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. It is shown that as the number of simulations diverges, the estimator is consistent and a higher-order expansion reveals the stochastic difference between the infeasible GMM estimator based on the same moment conditions and the simulated version. In particular, we show how to adjust standard errors to account for the simulations. Monte Carlo results show how the estimator may be applied to a range of dynamic latent variable (DLV) models, and that it performs well in comparison to several other estimators that have been proposed for DLV models.

Dynamic stackelberg game with risk-averse players: optimal risk-sharing under asymmetric information

The objective of this paper is to clarify the interactive nature of the leader-follower relationship when both players are endogenously risk-averse. The analysis is placed in the context of a dynamic closed-loop Stackelberg game with private information. The case of a risk-neutral leader, very often discussed in the literature, is only a borderline possibility in the present study. Each player in the game is characterized by a risk-averse type which is unknown to his opponent. The goal of the leader is to implement an optimal incentive compatible risk-sharing contract. The proposed approach provides a qualitative analysis of adaptive risk behavior profiles for asymmetrically informed players in the context of dynamic strategic interactions modelled as incentive Stackelberg games.

Nash equilibrium strategies in discrete-time finite-horizon dynamic games with risk-and effort-averse players

The objective of this paper is to re-examine the risk-and effort attitude in the context of strategic dynamic interactions stated as a discrete-time finite-horizon Nash game. The analysis is based on the assumption that players are endogenously risk-and effort-averse. Each player is characterized by distinct risk-and effort-aversion types that are unknown to his opponent. The goal of the game is the optimal risk-and effort-sharing between the players. It generally depends on the individual strategies adopted and, implicitly, on the the players' types or characteristics.