Les vaccins contre le zona : efficacité, sécurité, et rapport coût/bénéfices [Vaccines against Herpes zoster: Effectiveness, safety, and cost/benefit ratio].

CONTEXT: A vaccination against herpes zoster and its complication is available in France since June 2015. Its exact benefit for public health is still controversial and its level of protection is not optimal. All those reasons seem to suggest a low acceptation rate from general practitioners. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness, the safety, and the cost/benefit ratio of the vaccination against herpes zoster in people aged 50 year or over. DOCUMENTARY SOURCE: Systematic review in Medline and PubMed with research by key words: "herpes zoster vaccine", "zoster vaccine" and "post herpetic neuralgia vaccine". SELECTION OF STUDIES: Randomized and observational studies published in English and French language have been selected by two readers. RESULTS: On 1886 articles identified, 62 studies were included in this systematic review of which 21 randomized trials, 21 observational studies, and 17 medico-economic studies concerned the unadjuvanted vaccine. Considered studies showed an effectiveness of 50% against herpes zoster and 60% on post-herpetic neuralgia incidence of the unadjuvanted vaccine. Five randomized controlled studies were identified for the adjuvanted vaccine. The overall effectiveness of this vaccine was > 90% whatever the age of subjects including those over age 70 and 80. The medico-economic studies conducted in many countries have shown that vaccine policies were beneficial in individuals aged 60 years or over. LIMITATION OF THE WORK: Most of data of effectiveness, and tolerance result from 2 large controlled studies only (SPS and ZEST) for the unadjuvanted vaccine and only one for the adjuvanted vaccine. CONCLUSION: Despite controversy and few uncertainties, the vaccine significantly reduces herpes zoster and its complication incidence. In terms of public health objectives, it reduces the burden of the disease and has a positive medico-economic impact. Preliminary data concerning the adjuvanted vaccine, whilst very promising, are still too limited. Up to now, no group of people with particularly high risk of herpes zoster-related complication who will beneficiate the most of the vaccination has been identified yet and only an age criteria has been considered for the recommendation.

Sex ratio bias, male aggression, and population collapse in lizards.

The adult sex ratio (ASR) is a key parameter of the demography of human and other animal populations, yet the causes of variation in ASR, how individuals respond to this variation, and how their response feeds back into population dynamics remain poorly understood. A prevalent hypothesis is that ASR is regulated by intrasexual competition, which would cause more mortality or emigration in the sex of increasing frequency. Our experimental manipulation of populations of the common lizard (Lacerta vivipara) shows the opposite effect. Male mortality and emigration are not higher under male-biased ASR. Rather, an excess of adult males begets aggression toward adult females, whose survival and fecundity drop, along with their emigration rate. The ensuing prediction that adult male skew should be amplified and total population size should decline is supported by long-term data. Numerical projections show that this amplifying effect causes a major risk of population extinction. In general, such an "evolutionary trap" toward extinction threatens populations in which there is a substantial mating cost for females, and environmental changes or management practices skew the ASR toward males.

Operational sex ratio, sexual conflict and the intensity of sexual selection.

Modern sexual selection theory indicates that reproductive costs rather than the operational sex ratio predict the intensity of sexual selection. We investigated sexual selection in the polygynandrous common lizard Lacerta vivipara. This species shows male aggression, causing high mating costs for females when adult sex ratios (ASR) are male-biased. We manipulated ASR in 12 experimental populations and quantified the intensity of sexual selection based on the relationship between reproductive success and body size. In sharp contrast to classical sexual selection theory predictions, positive directional sexual selection on male size was stronger and positive directional selection on female size weaker in female-biased populations than in male-biased populations. Thus, consistent with modern theory, directional sexual selection on male size was weaker in populations with higher female mating costs. This suggests that the costs of breeding, but not the operational sex ratio, correctly predicted the strength of sexual selection.

Female common lizards (Lacerta vivipara) do not adjust their sex-biased investment in relation to the adult sex ratio.

Sex allocation theory predicts that facultative maternal investment in the rare sex should be favoured by natural selection when breeders experience predictable variation in adult sex ratios (ASRs). We found significant spatial and predictable interannual changes in local ASRs within a natural population of the common lizard where the mean ASR is female-biased, thus validating the key assumptions of adaptive sex ratio models. We tested for facultative maternal investment in the rare sex during and after an experimental perturbation of the ASR by creating populations with female-biased or male-biased ASR. Mothers did not adjust their clutch sex ratio during or after the ASR perturbation, but produced sons with a higher body condition in male-biased populations. However, this differential sex allocation did not result in growth or survival differences in offspring. Our results thus contradict the predictions of adaptive models and challenge the idea that facultative investment in the rare sex might be a mechanism regulating the population sex ratio.

Dismissal of the illusion of uncertainty in the assessment of a likelihood ratio

The use of the Bayes factor (BF) or likelihood ratio as a metric to assess the probative value of forensic traces is largely supported by operational standards and recommendations in different forensic disciplines. However, the progress towards more widespread consensus about foundational principles is still fragile as it raises new problems about which views differ. It is not uncommon e.g. to encounter scientists who feel the need to compute the probability distribution of a given expression of evidential value (i.e. a BF), or to place intervals or significance probabilities on such a quantity. The article here presents arguments to show that such views involve a misconception of principles and abuse of language. The conclusion of the discussion is that, in a given case at hand, forensic scientists ought to offer to a court of justice a given single value for the BF, rather than an expression based on a distribution over a range of values.

Parental body condition does not correlate with offspring sex-ratio in Cory's shearwater

We analyzed offspring sex ratio variation in Mediterranean Cory's Shearwater (Calonectris d. diomedea) during two consecutive breeding seasons in two colonies. We test for differential breeding conditions between years and colonies looking at several breeding parameters and parental condition. We then explored the relationship between offspring sex ratio and parental condition and breeding parameters. This species is sexually dimorphic with males larger and heavier than females; consequently we expected differential parental cost in rearing sexes, or a greater sensitivity of male chicks to adverse conditions, which may lead to biased sex ratios. Chicks were sexed molecularly by the amplification of the CHD genes. Offspring sex ratio did not differ from parity, either at hatching or fledging, regardless of the colony or year. However, parental body condition and breeding parameters such as egg size and breeding success were different between years and colonies. Nevertheless, neither nestling mortality nor body condition at fledging varied between years or colonies, suggesting that male and female chicks were probably not differentially affected by variability in breeding conditions.

Decay of linkage disequilibrium within genes across HGDP-CEPH human samples: most population isolates do not show increased LD

Background It is well known that the pattern of linkage disequilibrium varies between human populations, with remarkable geographical stratification. Indirect association studies routinely exploit linkage disequilibrium around genes, particularly in isolated populations where it is assumed to be higher. Here, we explore both the amount and the decay of linkage disequilibrium with physical distance along 211 gene regions, most of them related to complex diseases, across 39 HGDP-CEPH population samples, focusing particularly on the populations defined as isolates. Within each gene region and population we use r2 between all possible single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) pairs as a measure of linkage disequilibrium and focus on the proportion of SNP pairs with r2 greater than 0.8. Results Although the average r2 was found to be significantly different both between and within continental regions, a much higher proportion of r2 variance could be attributed to differences between continental regions (2.8% vs. 0.5%, respectively). Similarly, while the proportion of SNP pairs with r2 > 0.8 was significantly different across continents for all distance classes, it was generally much more homogenous within continents, except in the case of Africa and the Americas. The only isolated populations with consistently higher LD in all distance classes with respect to their continent are the Kalash (Central South Asia) and the Surui (America). Moreover, isolated populations showed only slightly higher proportions of SNP pairs with r2 > 0.8 per gene region than non-isolated populations in the same continent. Thus, the number of SNPs in isolated populations that need to be genotyped may be only slightly less than in non-isolates. Conclusion The 'isolated population' label by itself does not guarantee a greater genotyping efficiency in association studies, and properties other than increased linkage disequilibrium may make these populations interesting in genetic epidemiology.

An Interface Damage Model for the Simulation of Delamination Under Variable-Mode Ratio in Composite Materials

A thermodynamically consistent damage model for the simulation of progressive delamination under variable mode ratio is presented. The model is formulated in the context of the Damage Mechanics. The constitutive equation that results from the definition of the free energy as a function of a damage variable is used to model the initiation and propagation of delamination. A new delamination initiation criterion is developed to assure that the formulation can account for changes in the loading mode in a thermodynamically consistent way. The formulation proposed accounts for crack closure effets avoiding interfacial penetration of two adjacent layers aftercomplete decohesion. The model is implemented in a finite element formulation. The numerical predictions given by the model are compared with experimental results

Ratio in assensum divinae veritatis revelatae deducta

Invocatio: Dirigente Jesu.

Influence of initial CaO/SiO2 ratio on the hydration of rice husk ash-Ca(OH)2 and sugar cane bagasse ash-Ca(OH)2 pastes

This work presents the results of a study on the hydration of pastes containing calcium hydroxide and either rice husk ash (RHA) or sugar cane bagasse ash (SCBA) in various initial CaO/SiO2 molar ratios. The products of the reactions were characterized by thermal analyses X-ray diffraction, and scanning electron microscopy. In the case of the RHA pastes, the product was composed of CaO-SiO2-H2O (type I C-S-H) or CaO-SiO2-H2O (type II C-S-H) according to the CaO/SiO2 ratio of the mixture. In contrast, in the case of the SBCA pastes, the product was composed primarily of CaO-SiO2-H2O that differed from both the previous types; the product also contained inclusions of calcium aluminate hydrates.

Influence of plasma modification on surface properties and offset printability of coated paper

The properties of the paper surface play a crucial role in ensuring suitable quality and runnability in various converting and finishing operations, such as printing. Plasma surface modification makes it possible to modify the surface chemistry of paper without altering the bulk material properties. This also makes it possible to investigate the role of the surface chemistry alone on printability without influencing the porous structure of the pigment-coated paper. Since the porous structure of a pigment coating controls both ink setting and optical properties, surface chemical changes created by a plasma modification have a potential to decouple these two effects and to permit a better optimization of them both. The aim of this work was to understand the effects of plasma surface modification on paper properties, and how it influences printability in the sheet-fed offset process. The objective was to broaden the fundamental understanding of the role of surface chemistry on offset printing. The effects of changing the hydrophilicity/ hydrophobicity and the surface chemical composition by plasma activation and plasma coatings on the properties of coated paper and on ink-paper interactions as well as on sheet-fed offset print quality were investigated. In addition, the durability of the plasma surface modification was studied. Nowadays, a typical sheet-fed offset press also contains units for surface finishing, for example UVvarnishing. The role of the surface chemistry on the UV-varnish absorption into highly permeable and porous pigment-coated paper was also investigated. With plasma activation it was possible to increase the surface energy and hydrophilicity of paper. Both polar and dispersion interactions were found to increase, although the change was greater in the polar interactions due to induced oxygen molecular groups. The results indicated that plasma activation takes place particularly in high molecular weight components such as the dispersion chemicals used to stabilize the pigment and latex particles. Surface composition, such as pigment and binder type, was found to influence the response to the plasma activation. The general trend was that pilot-scale treatment modified the surface chemistry without altering the physical coating structure, whereas excessive laboratory-scale treatment increased the surface roughness and reduced the surface strength, which led to micro-picking in printing. It was shown that pilot-scale plasma activation in combination with appropriate ink oils makes it possible to adjust the ink-setting rate. The ink-setting rate decreased with linseed-oil-based inks, probably due to increased acid-base interactions between the polar groups in the oil and the plasma-treated paper surface. With mineral-oil-based inks, the ink setting accelerated due to plasma activation. Hydrophobic plasma coatings were able to reduce or even prevent the absorption of dampening water into pigmentcoated paper, even when the dampening water was applied under the influence of nip pressure. A uniform hydrophobic plasma coating with sufficient chemical affinity with ink gave an improved print quality in terms of higher print density and lower print mottle. It was also shown that a fluorocarbon plasma coating reduced the free wetting of the UV-varnish into the highly permeable and porous pigment coating. However, when the UV-varnish was applied under the influence of nip pressure, which leads to forced wetting, the role of the surface chemical composition seems to be much less. A decay in surface energy and wettability occurred during the first weeks of storage after plasma activation, after which it leveled off. However, the oxygen/carbon elemental ratio did not decrease as a function of time, indicating that ageing could be caused by a re-orientation of polar groups or by a contamination of the surface. The plasma coatings appeared to be more stable when the hydrophobicity was higher, probably due to fewer interactions with oxygen and water vapor in the air.

Temporal variability of soil CO2 emission after conventional and reduced tillage described by an exponential decay in time model

To study Assessing the impact of tillage practices on soil carbon losses dependents it is necessary to describe the temporal variability of soil CO2 emission after tillage. It has been argued that large amounts of CO2 emitted after tillage may serve as an indicator for longer-term changes in soil carbon stocks. Here we present a two-step function model based on soil temperature and soil moisture including an exponential decay in time component that is efficient in fitting intermediate-term emission after disk plow followed by a leveling harrow (conventional), and chisel plow coupled with a roller for clod breaking (reduced) tillage. Emission after reduced tillage was described using a non-linear estimator with determination coefficient (R²) as high as 0.98. Results indicate that when emission after tillage is addressed it is important to consider an exponential decay in time in order to predict the impact of tillage in short-term emissions.

Shewhart's control charts and process capability ratio applied to a sewage treatment station

The current study used statistical methods of quality control to evaluate the performance of a sewage treatment station. The concerned station is located in Cascavel city, Paraná State. The evaluated parameters were hydrogenionic potential, settleable solids, total suspended solids, chemical oxygen demand and biochemical oxygen demand in five days. Statistical analysis was performed through Shewhart control charts and process capability ratio. According to Shewhart charts, only the BOD(5.20) variable was under statistical control. Through capability ratios, we observed that except for pH the sewage treatment station is not capable to produce effluents under characteristics that fulfill specifications or standard launching required by environmental legislation.

Testing Futures Market Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation: Evidence from Futures and Options on RTS

This study investigates futures market efficiency and optimal hedge ratio estimation. First, cointegration between spot and futures prices is studied using Johansen method, with two different model specifications. If prices are found cointegrated, restrictions on cointegrating vector and adjustment coefficients are imposed, to account for unbiasedness, weak exogeneity and prediction hypothesis. Second, optimal hedge ratios are estimated using static OLS, and time-varying DVEC and CCC models. In-sample and out-of-sample results for one, two and five period ahead are reported. The futures used in thesis are RTS index, EUR/RUB exchange rate and Brent oil, traded in Futures and options on RTS.(FORTS) For in-sample period, data points were acquired from start of trading of each futures contract, RTS index from August 2005, EUR/RUB exchange rate March 2009 and Brent oil October 2008, lasting till end of May 2011. Out-of-sample period covers start of June 2011, till end of December 2011. Our results indicate that all three asset pairs, spot and futures, are cointegrated. We found RTS index futures to be unbiased predictor of spot price, mixed evidence for exchange rate, and for Brent oil futures unbiasedness was not supported. Weak exogeneity results for all pairs indicated spot price to lead in price discovery process. Prediction hypothesis, unbiasedness and weak exogeneity of futures, was rejected for all asset pairs. Variance reduction results varied between assets, in-sample in range of 40-85 percent and out-of sample in range of 40-96 percent. Differences between models were found small, except for Brent oil in which OLS clearly dominated. Out-of-sample results indicated exceptionally high variance reduction for RTS index, approximately 95 percent.