931 resultados para change-point detection


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Understanding how human influence on climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and expectations that significant changes in regional precipitation should have already occurred as a result of human influence on climate, compelling evidence of anthropogenic fingerprints on regional precipitation is obscured by observational and modelling uncertainties and is likely to remain so using current methods for years to come. This is in spite of substantial ongoing improvements in models, new reanalyses and a satellite record that spans over thirty years. If we are to quantify how human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle, we need to consider novel ways of identifying the effects of natural and anthropogenic influences on precipitation that take full advantage of our physical expectations.

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Aims: To determine the prevalence and expression of metallo-beta-lactamases (MBL)-encoding genes in Aeromonas species recovered from natural water reservoirs in southeastern Brazil. Methods and Results: Eighty-seven Aeromonas isolates belonging to Aeromonas hydrophila (n = 41) and Aer. jandaei (n = 46) species were tested for MBL production by the combined disk test using imipenem and meropenem disks as substrates and EDTA or thioglycolic acid as inhibitors. The presence of MBL genes was investigated by PCR and sequencing using new consensus primer pairs designed in this study. The cphA gene was found in 97.6% and 100% of Aer. hydrophila and Aer. jandaei isolates, respectively, whereas the acquired MBL genes bla(IMP), bla(VIM) and bla(SPM-1) were not detected. On the other hand, production of MBL activity was detectable in 87.8% and 10.9% of the cphA-positive Aer. hydrophila and Aer. jandaei isolates respectively. Conclusions: Our results indicate that cphA seems to be intrinsic in the environmental isolates of Aer. hydrophila and Aer. jandaei in southeastern Brazil, although, based on the combined disk test, not all of them are apparently able to express the enzymatic activity. Significance and Impact of the Study: These data confirm the presence of MBL-producing Aeromonas species in natural water reservoirs. Risk of water-borne diseases owing to domestic and industrial uses of freshwater should be re-examined from the increase of bacterial resistance point of view.

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Cholesterol oxidation gives rise to a mixture of oxidized products. Different types of products are generated according to the reactive species being involved. Recently, attention has been focused on two cholesterol aldehydes, 3 beta-hydroxy-5 beta-hydroxy-B-norcholestane-6 beta-carboxyaldehyde (1a) and 3 beta-hydroxy-5-oxo-5,6-secocholestan-6-al (1b). These aldehydes can be generated by ozone-, as well as by singlet molecular oxygen-mediated cholesterol oxidation. It has been suggested that 1b is preferentially formed by ozone and la is preferentially formed by singlet molecular oxygen. In this study we describe the use of 1-pyrenebutyric hydrazine (PBH) as a fluorescent probe for the detection of cholesterol aldehydes. The formation of the fluorescent adduct between la with PBH was confirmed by HPLC-MS/MS. The fluorescence spectra of PBH did not change upon binding to the aldehyde. Moreover, the derivatization was also effective in the absence of an acidified medium, which is critical to avoid the formation of cholesterol aldehydes through Hock cleavage of 5 alpha-hydroperoxycholesterol. In conclusion, PBH can be used as an efficient fluorescent probe for the detection/quantification of cholesterol aldehydes in biological samples. Its analysis by HPLC coupled to a fluorescent detector provides a sensitive and specific way to quantify cholesterol aldehydes in the low femtomol range.

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Here we report the derivatization of mesoporous TiO(2) thin films for the preparation of H(2)O(2) amperometric sensors. The coordination of the bifunctional ligand 1,10 phenantroline, 5,6 dione on the surface Ti(IV) ions provides open coordination sites for Fe(II) cations which are the starting point for the growth of a layer of Prussian blue polymer. The porous structure of the mesoporous TiO(2) allows the growth, ion by ion of the coordination polymer. Up to four layer of Prussian blue can be deposit without losing the porous structure of the film, which results in an enhanced response of these materials as H(2)O(2) sensors. These porous confined PB modified electrodes are robust sensors that exhibit good reproducibility, environmental stability and high sensitivity towards H(2)O(2) detection. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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ABSTRACT World Heritage sites provide a glimpse into the stories and civilizations of the past. There are currently 1007 unique World Heritage properties with 779 being classified as cultural sites, 197 as natural sites, and 31 falling into the categories of both cultural and natural sites (UNESCO & World Heritage Centre, 1992-2015). However, of these 1007 World Heritage sites, at least 46 are categorized as in danger and this number continues to grow. These unique and irreplaceable sites are exceptional because of their universality. Consequently, since World Heritage sites belong to all the people of the world and provide inspiration and admiration to all who visit them, it is our responsibility to help preserve these sites. The key form of preservation involves the individual monitoring of each site over time. While traditional methods are still extremely valuable, more recent advances in the field of geographic and spatial technologies including geographic information systems (GIS), laser scanning, and remote sensing, are becoming more beneficial for the monitoring and overall safeguarding of World Heritage sites. Through the employment and analysis of more accurately detailed spatial data, World Heritage sites can be better managed. There is a strong urgency to protect these sites. The purpose of this thesis is to describe the importance of taking care of World Heritage sites and to depict a way in which spatial technologies can be used to monitor and in effect preserve World Heritage sites through the utilization of remote sensing imagery. The research conducted in this thesis centers on the Everglades National Park, a World Heritage site that is continually affected by changes in vegetation. Data used include Landsat satellite imagery that dates from 2001-2003, the Everglades' boundaries shapefile, and Google Earth imagery. In order to conduct the in-depth analysis of vegetation change within the selected World Heritage site, three main techniques were performed to study changes found within the imagery. These techniques consist of conducting supervised classification for each image, incorporating a vegetation index known as Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI), and utilizing the change detection tool available in the Environment for Visualizing Images (ENVI) software. With the research and analysis conducted throughout this thesis, it has been shown that within the three year time span (2001-2003), there has been an overall increase in both areas of barren soil (5.760%) and areas of vegetation (1.263%) with a decrease in the percentage of areas classified as sparsely vegetated (-6.987%). These results were gathered through the use of the maximum likelihood classification process available in the ENVI software. The results produced by the change detection tool which further analyzed vegetation change correlate with the results produced by the classification method. As well, by utilizing the NDVI method, one is able to locate changes by selecting a specific area and comparing the vegetation index generated for each date. It has been found that through the utilization of remote sensing technology, it is possible to monitor and observe changes featured within a World Heritage site. Remote sensing is an extraordinary tool that can and should be used by all site managers and organizations whose goal it is to preserve and protect World Heritage sites. Remote sensing can be used to not only observe changes over time, but it can also be used to pinpoint threats within a World Heritage site. World Heritage sites are irreplaceable sources of beauty, culture, and inspiration. It is our responsibility, as citizens of this world, to guard these treasures.

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This paper investigates whether or not multivariate cointegrated process with structural change can describe the Brazilian term structure of interest rate data from 1995 to 2006. In this work the break point and the number of cointegrated vector are assumed to be known. The estimated model has four regimes. Only three of them are statistically different. The first starts at the beginning of the sample and goes until September of 1997. The second starts at October of 1997 until December of 1998. The third starts at January of 1999 and goes until the end of the sample. It is used monthly data. Models that allows for some similarities across the regimes are also estimated and tested. The models are estimated using the Generalized Reduced-Rank Regressions developed by Hansen (2003). All imposed restrictions can be tested using likelihood ratio test with standard asymptotic 1 qui-squared distribution. The results of the paper show evidence in favor of the long run implications of the expectation hypothesis for Brazil.

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Employing a embodied technologic change model in which the time decision of scrapping old vintages of capital and adopt newer one is endogenous we show that the elasticity of substitutions among capital and labor plays a key role in determining the optimum life span of capital. In particular, for the CD case the life span of capital does not depend on the relative price of it. The estimation of the model's long-run investment function shows, for a Panel data set consisting of 125 economies for 25 years, that the price elasticity of investment is lower than one; we rejected the CD specification. Our calibration for the US suggests 0.4 for the technical elasticity of substitution. In order to get a theoretical consistent concept of aggregate capital we derive the relative price profile for a shadow second-hand market for capital. The shape of the model's theoretical price curve reproduces the empírical estimation of it. \lVe plug the calibrate version of the long-run solution of the model to a cross-section of economies data set to get the implied TFP, that is, the part of the productivity which is not explained by the model. We show that the mo dei represent a good improvement, comparing to the standard neoc!assical growth model with CD production function and disembodied technical change, in accounting the world diversity in productivity. In addition the model describes the fact that a very poor economy can experience fast growth based on capital accumulation until the point of becoming a middle income economy; from this point on it has to rely on TFP increase in order to keep growing.

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Purpose: To evaluate the accuracy of Image Tool Software 3.0 (ITS 3.0) to detect marginal microleakage using the stereomicroscope as the validation criterion and ITS 3.0 as the tool under study.Materials and Methods: Class V cavities were prepared at the cementoenamel junction of 61 bovine incisors, and 53 halves of them were used. Using the stereomicroscope, microleakage was classified dichotomously: presence or absence. Next, ITS 3.0 was used to obtain measurements of the microleakage, so that 0.75 was taken as the cut-off point, and values equal to or greater than 0.75 indicated its presence, while values between 0.00 and 0.75 indicated its absence. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated by point and given as 95% confidence interval (95% CI).Results: The accuracy of the ITS 3.0 was verified with a sensitivity of 0.95 (95% CI: 0.89 to 1.00) and a specificity of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.84 to 0.99).Conclusion: Digital diagnosis of marginal microleakage using ITS 3.0 was sensitive and specific.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Aim To evaluate whether observed geographical shifts in the distribution of the blue-winged macaw (Primolius maracana) are related to ongoing processes of global climate change. This species is vulnerable to extinction and has shown striking range retractions in recent decades, withdrawing broadly from southern portions of its historical distribution. Its range reduction has generally been attributed to the effects of habitat loss; however, as this species has also disappeared from large forested areas, consideration of other factors that may act in concert is merited.Location Historical distribution of the blue-winged macaw in Brazil, eastern Paraguay and northern Argentina.Methods We used a correlative approach to test a hypothesis of causation of observed shifts by reduction of habitable areas mediated by climate change. We developed models of the ecological niche requirements of the blue-winged macaw, based on point-occurrence data and climate scenarios for pre-1950 and post-1950 periods, and tested model predictivity for anticipating geographical distributions within time periods. Then we projected each model to the other time period and compared distributions predicted under both climate scenarios to assess shifts of habitable areas across decades and to evaluate an explanation for observed range retractions.Results Differences between predicted distributions of the blue-winged macaw over the twentieth century were, in general, minor and no change in suitability of landscapes was predicted across large areas of the species' original range in different time periods. No tendency towards range retraction in the south was predicted, rather conditions in the southern part of the species' range tended to show improvement for the species.Main conclusions Our test permitted elimination of climate change as a likely explanation for the observed shifts in the distribution of the blue-winged macaw, and points rather to other causal explanations (e.g. changing regional land use, emerging diseases).

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Conjugated polymers have been subject of great interest in the recent literature from both fundamental point of view and applied science perspective. Among the several types of conjugated polymers used in recent investigations, polythiophene and its derivatives have attracted considerable attention over the past 20 years due to their high mobility and other remarkable solid-state properties. They have potential applications in many fields, such as microelectronic devices, catalysts, organic field-effect transistors, chemical sensors, and biosensors. They have been studied as gas and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) sensors using different principles or transduction techniques, such as optical absorption, conductivity, and capacitance measurements. In this work, we report on the fabrication of gas sensors based on a conducting polymer on an interdigitated gold electrode. We use as active layer of the sensor a polythiophene derivative: poly (3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT) and analyzed its conductivity as response for exposure to dynamic flow of saturated vapors of six VOCs [n-hexane, toluene, chloroform, dichloromethane, methanol, and tetrahydrofuran (THE)]. Different responses were obtained upon exposure to all VOCs, THF gave the higher response while methanol the lower response. The influence of moisture on the measurements was also evaluated. (C) 2010 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

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Fractional factorial design and factorial with center point design were applied to the development of an amperometric biosensor for the detection of the hepatitis C virus. Biomolecules were immobilized by adsorption on graphite electrodes modified with siloxane-poly(propyleneoxide) hybrid matrix prepared using the sol-gel method. Several parameters were optimized, such as the streptavidin concentration at 0.01 mg mL(-1) and 1.0% bovine serum albumin, the incubation time of the electrodes in the complementary DNA solution for 30 minutes and a 1: 1500 dilution of the avidin-peroxidase conjugate, among others. The application of chemometric studies has been efficient, since the best conditions have been established with a restricted number of experiments, indicating the influence of different factors on the system.

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Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o efeito do estresse salino sobre a eficiência fotoquímica do fotossistema II (PSII) nas cultivares de manga 'Haden', 'Palmer', 'Tommy Atkins' e 'Ubá' enxertadas sobre o porta-enxerto 'Imbu'. Foi utilizada solução nutritiva de Hoagland modificada contendo 0; 15; 30e 45 mmol L-1 NaCl. Aos 97 dias após a exposição ao estresse salino, foram avaliados os parâmetros da fluorescência da clorofila (F0, Fm, Fv, F0/Fm, Fv/Fm, Fv'/Fm', ΦPSII = [(Fm'-Fs)/(Fm')], D = (1- Fv'/Fm') e ETR = (ΦPSII×PPF×0,84×0,5). Aos 100 dias, foram avaliados a emissão foliar, a área média de folhas (cm²), o índice de toxidez nas folhas e o índice de abscisão foliar. em todas as cultivares, em graus diferenciados, ocorreram decréscimo na eficiência fotoquímica do fotossistema II, na emissão de folhas, e aumento nos índices de toxidez e abscisão foliar, intensificados nas concentrações a partir de 15 mmol L-1 NaCl. As plantas cultivadas em 45 mmol L-1 NaCl apresentaram decréscimos na razão Fv/Fm de 27,9; 18,7; 20,5 e 27,4%, incremento no índice de toxidez foliar de 33,0; 67,5; 41,6 e 80,8% e no índice de abscisão foliar de 71,8; 29,2; 32,5 e 67,9% para as cultivares 'Haden', 'Palmer', 'Tommy Atkins' e 'Uba', respectivamente. Os decréscimos na razão Fv/Fm foram acompanhados de redução na emissão de folhas e aumento no índice de toxidez foliar, mostrando, portanto, o potencial da fluorescência da clorofila na detecção precoce de estresse salino em mangueira.

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Plant extracts are some of the most attractive sources of new drugs and have shown promising results for the treatment of gastric ulcers. Several folk medicinal plants and herbs have been used to treat gastrointestinal disorders, including gastric ulcers. Mammea americana L. (Guttiferae) fruit is very common in the diet of the population of northern South America. Our research interest in this plant arose because of its potential medicinal value as a tonic and against stomachache, as used in folk medicine. In this paper we evaluated three different extracts (ethanolic/EtOH, methanolic/MeOH and dichloromethane/DCM) obtained from M. americana L., for their ability to protect the gastric mucosa against injuries caused by necrotizing agents (0.3 M HCI/60% EtOH), hypothermic restraint stress, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID, indomethacin) and pylorus ligation. In the HCI/EtOH-induced gastriculcer model, EtOH and DCM extracts demonstrated significant inhibition of the ulcerative lesion index by 54% (12.0 +/- 2.6 mm) and 86% (3.7 +/- 1.8 mm), respectively, in relation to the control value (26.0 +/- 1.4 mm) (p < 0.000 1). In the NSAID/cholinomimetic-induced lesion model, both EtOH and DCM extracts showed antiulcerogenic effects with significant reduction in the damage to these gastric lesions of 36% (8.3 +/- 2.0 mm) and 42% (7.5 +/- 1.4 mm), respectively, as compared to the control group (13.0 +/- 0.9 mm) (p < 0.0001). In the gastric ulcer induced by hypothermic-restraint stress, both extracts also showed significant activity, and inhibited the gastric lesion index by 58% and 75%, respectively. The EtOH and DCM extracts also changed gastric juice parameters as well as those of cimetidine, decreased gastric acid secretion significantly (p < 0.0001), increased pH values and promoted reduced acid output (p < 0.0001). In all gastric-ulcer-induced models, MeOH extract did not show any significant antiulcerogenic activity, nor did it change gastric-juice parameters (p > 0.05). The results suggest that EtOH and DCM extracts obtained from M. americana possess excellent antisecretory and/or gastrotective effect in all gastric ulcer models. These results suggest that the antiulcerogenic compound(s) present in M. americana may be clustered in the apolar fraction, which will be investigated by our group for the probable mechanisms of action. (c) 2004 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

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A liquid phase blocking ELISA (LPB-ELISA) was adapted for the detection and quantification of antibodies to Newcastle disease virus. Sera from vaccinated and unvaccinated commercial flocks of ostriches (Struthio camelus) and rheas (Rhea americana) were tested. The purified and nonpurified virus used as the antigen and the capture and detector antibodies were prepared and standardized for this purpose. The hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) test was regarded as the reference method, the cutoff point for the LPB-ELISA was determined by a two-graph receiver operating characteristic analysis. The LPB-ELISA titers regressed significantly (P < 0.0001) on the HI titers with a high correlation coefficient (r = 0.875). The two tests showed good agreement ( = 0.82; P < 0.0001), relative sensitivity (90.91%) and specificity (91.18%), and accuracy (91.02%), suggesting that they are interchangeable.