Chlorophyll fluorescence measures of seagrasses Halophila ovalis and Zostera capricorni reveal differences in response to experimental shading

In coastal waters and estuaries, seagrass meadows are often subject to light deprivation over short time scales (days to weeks) in response to increased turbidity from anthropogenic disturbances. Seagrasses may exhibit negative physiological responses to light deprivation and suffer stress, or tolerate such stresses through photo-adaptation of physiological processes allowing more efficient use of low light. Pulse Amplitude Modulated (PAM) fluorometery has been used to rapidly assess changes in photosynthetic responses along in situ gradients in light. In this study, however, light is experimentally manipulated in the field to examine the photosynthesis of Halophila ovalis and Zostera capricorni. We aimed to evaluate the tolerance of these seagrasses to short-term light reductions. The seagrasses were subject to four light treatments, 0, 5, 60, and 90% shading, for a period of 14 days. In both species, as shading increased the photosynthetic variables significantly (P < 0.05) decreased by up to 40% for maximum electron transport rates (ETRmax) and 70% for saturating irradiances (Ek). Photosynthetic efficiencies (a) and effective quantum yields (ΔF/Fm′ ) increased significantly (P < 0.05), in both species, for 90% shaded plants compared with 0% shaded plants. H. ovalis was more sensitive to 90% shading than Z. capricorni, showing greater reductions in ETR max, indicative of a reduced photosynthetic capacity. An increase in Ek, Fm′ and ΔF/Fm′ for H. ovalis and Z. capricorni under 90% shading suggested an increase in photochemical efficiency and a more efficient use of low-photon flux, consistent with photo-acclimation to shading. Similar responses were found along a depth gradient from 0 to10 m, where depth related changes in ETRmax and Ek in H. ovalis implied a strong difference of irradiance history between depths of 0 and 5-10 m. The results suggest that H. ovalis is more vulnerable to light deprivation than Z. capricorni and that H. ovalis, at depths of 5-10 m, would be more vulnerable to light deprivation than intertidal populations. Both species showed a strong degree of photo-adaptation to light manipulation that may enable them to tolerate and adapt to short-term reductions in light. These consistent responses to changes in light suggest that photosynthetic variables can be used to rapidly assess the status of seagrasses when subjected to sudden and prolonged periods of reduced light

Satellite evidence of harmful algal blooms and related oceanographic features in the Bohai Sea during autumn 1998

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are truly global marine phenomena of increasing significance. Some HAB occurrences are different to observe because of their high spatial and temporal variability and their advection, once formed, by surface currents. A serious HAB occurred in the Bohai Sea during autumn 1998, causing the largest fisheries economic loss. The present study analyzes the formation, distribution, and advection of HAB using satellite SeaWiFS ocean color data and other oceanographic data. The results show that the bloom originated in the western coastal waters of the Bohai Sea in early September, and developed southeastward when sea surface temperature (SST) increased to 25-26 °C. The bloom with a high Chl-a concentration (6.5 mg m-3) in center portion covered an area of 60 × 65 km2. At the end of September, the bloom decayed when SST decreased to 22-23 °C. The HAB may have been initiated by a combination of the river discharge nutrients in the west coastal waters and the increase of SST; afterwards it may have been transported eastward by the local circulation that was enhanced by northwesterly winds in late September and early October.

Spatial variation in life history reveals insight into connectivity and geographic population structure of a tropical estuarine teleost: king threadfin, Polydactylus macrochir

Understanding the life history of exploited fish species is not only critical in developing stock assessments and productivity models, but has a dual function in the delineation of connectivity and geographical population structure. In this study, patterns in growth and length and age at sex change of Polydactylus macrochir, an ecologically and economically important protandrous estuarine teleost, were examined to provide preliminary information on the species' connectivity and geographic structure across northern Australia. Considerable variation in life history parameters was observed among the 18 locations sampled. Both unconstrained and constrained (t(0) = 0) estimates of von Bertalanffy growth function parameters differed significantly among all neighbouring locations with the exception of two locations in Queensland's east coast and two in Queensland's Gulf of Carpentaria waters, respectively. Comparisons of back-calculated length-at-age 2 provided additional evidence for growth differences among some locations, but were not significantly different among locations in the south-eastern Gulf of Carpentaria or on Queensland's east coast. The length and age at sex change differed markedly among locations, with fish from the east coast of Australia changing sex from males to females at significantly greater lengths and ages than elsewhere. Sex change occurred earliest at locations within Queensland's Gulf of Carpentaria, where a large proportion of small, young females were recorded. The observed differences suggest that P. macrochir likely form a number of geographically and/or reproductively distinct groups in Australian waters and suggest that future studies examining connectivity and geographic population structure of estuarine fishes will likely benefit from the inclusion of comparisons of life history parameters. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dasatinib, nilotinib and standard-dose imatinib for the first line treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia: Systematic reviews and economic analyses

- Background Nilotinib and dasatinib are now being considered as alternative treatments to imatinib as a first-line treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML). - Objective This technology assessment reviews the available evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dasatinib, nilotinib and standard-dose imatinib for the first-line treatment of Philadelphia chromosome-positive CML. - Data sources Databases [including MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE, Current Controlled Trials, ClinicalTrials.gov, the US Food and Drug Administration website and the European Medicines Agency website] were searched from search end date of the last technology appraisal report on this topic in October 2002 to September 2011. - Review methods A systematic review of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness studies; a review of surrogate relationships with survival; a review and critique of manufacturer submissions; and a model-based economic analysis. - Results Two clinical trials (dasatinib vs imatinib and nilotinib vs imatinib) were included in the effectiveness review. Survival was not significantly different for dasatinib or nilotinib compared with imatinib with the 24-month follow-up data available. The rates of complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and major molecular response (MMR) were higher for patients receiving dasatinib than for those with imatinib for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR 83% vs 72%, p < 0.001; MMR 46% vs 28%, p < 0.0001). The rates of CCyR and MMR were higher for patients receiving nilotinib than for those receiving imatinib for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR 80% vs 65%, p < 0.001; MMR 44% vs 22%, p < 0.0001). An indirect comparison analysis showed no difference between dasatinib and nilotinib for CCyR or MMR rates for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR, odds ratio 1.09, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.92; MMR, odds ratio 1.28, 95% CI 0.77 to 2.16). There is observational association evidence from imatinib studies supporting the use of CCyR and MMR at 12 months as surrogates for overall all-cause survival and progression-free survival in patients with CML in chronic phase. In the cost-effectiveness modelling scenario, analyses were provided to reflect the extensive structural uncertainty and different approaches to estimating OS. First-line dasatinib is predicted to provide very poor value for money compared with first-line imatinib, with deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of between £256,000 and £450,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Conversely, first-line nilotinib provided favourable ICERs at the willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000-30,000 per QALY. - Limitations Immaturity of empirical trial data relative to life expectancy, forcing either reliance on surrogate relationships or cumulative survival/treatment duration assumptions. - Conclusions From the two trials available, dasatinib and nilotinib have a statistically significant advantage compared with imatinib as measured by MMR or CCyR. Taking into account the treatment pathways for patients with CML, i.e. assuming the use of second-line nilotinib, first-line nilotinib appears to be more cost-effective than first-line imatinib. Dasatinib was not cost-effective if decision thresholds of £20,000 per QALY or £30,000 per QALY were used, compared with imatinib and nilotinib. Uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness analysis would be substantially reduced with better and more UK-specific data on the incidence and cost of stem cell transplantation in patients with chronic CML. - Funding The Health Technology Assessment Programme of the National Institute for Health Research.

Turing and the Trans-Pacific Partnership: Intellectual Property, Public Health, and Access to Essential Medicines

A recent controversy in the United States over drug pricing by Turing Pharmaceuticals AG has raised larger issues in respect of intellectual property, access to medicines, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). In August 2015, Turing Pharmaceuticals AG – a private biopharmaceutical company with offices in New York, the United States, and Zug, Switzerland - acquired the exclusive marketing rights to Daraprim in the United States from Impax Laboratories Incorporated. Martin Shkreli, Turing’s Founder and Chief Executive Officer, maintained: “The acquisition of Daraprim and our toxoplasmosis research program are significant steps along Turing’s path of bringing novel medications to patients with serious disorders, some of whom often go undiagnosed and untreated.” He emphasised: “We intend to invest in the development of new drug candidates that we hope will yield an even better clinical profile, and also plan to launch an educational effort to help raise awareness and improve diagnosis for patients with toxoplasmosis.” In September 2015, there was much public controversy over the decision of Martin Shkreli to raise the price of a 62 year old drug, Daraprim, from $US13.50 to $US750 a pill. The drug is particularly useful in respect to the treatment and prevention of malaria, and in the treatment of infections in individuals with HIV/AIDS. Daraprim is listed on the World Health Organization’s (WHO) List of Essential Medicines. In the face of much criticism, Martin Shkreli has said that he will reduce the price of Daraprim. He observed: “We've agreed to lower the price on Daraprim to a point that is more affordable and is able to allow the company to make a profit, but a very small profit.” He maintained: “We think these changes will be welcomed.” However, he has been vague and ambiguous about the nature of the commitment. Notably, the lobby group, Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhARMA), disassociated itself from the claims of Turing Pharmaceuticals. The group said: “PhRMA members have a long history of drug discovery and innovation that has led to increased longevity and improved lives for millions of patients.” The group noted: “Turing Pharmaceutical is not a member of PhRMA and we do not embrace either their recent actions or the conduct of their CEO.” The biotechnology peak body Biotechnology Industry Organization also sought to distance itself from Turing Pharmaceuticals. A hot topic: United States political debate about access to affordable medicines This controversy over Daraprim is unusual – given the age of drug concerned. Daraprim is not subject to patent protection. Nonetheless, there remains a monopoly in respect of the marketplace. Drug pricing is not an isolated problem. There have been many concerns about drug pricing – particularly in respect of essential medicines for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria. This recent controversy is part of a larger debate about access to affordable medicines. The dispute raises larger issues about healthcare, consumer rights, competition policy, and trade. The Daraprim controversy has provided impetus for law reform in the US. US Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton commented: “Price gouging like this in this specialty drug market is outrageous.” In response to her comments, the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index fell sharply. Hillary Clinton has announced a prescription drug reform plan to protect consumers and promote innovation – while putting an end to profiteering. On her campaign site, she has emphasised that “affordable healthcare is a basic human right.” Her rival progressive candidate, Bernie Sanders, was also concerned about the price hike. He wrote a letter to Martin Shkreli, complaining about the price increase for the drug Daraprim. Sanders said: “The enormous, overnight price increase for Daraprim is just the latest in a long list of skyrocketing price increases for certain critical medications.” He has pushed for reforms to intellectual property to make medicines affordable. The TPP and intellectual property The Daraprim controversy and political debate raises further issues about the design of the TPP. The dispute highlights the dangers of extending the rights of pharmaceutical drug companies under intellectual property, investor-state dispute settlement, and drug administration. Recently, the civil society group Knowledge Ecology International published a leaked draft of the Intellectual Property Chapter of the TPP. Knowledge Ecology International Director, James Love, was concerned the text revealed that the US “continues to be the most aggressive supporter of expanded intellectual property rights for drug companies.” He was concerned that “the proposals contained in the TPP will harm consumers and in some cases block innovation.” James Love feared: “In countless ways, the Obama Administration has sought to expand and extend drug monopolies and raise drug prices.” He maintained: “The astonishing collection of proposals pandering to big drug companies make more difficult the task of ensuring access to drugs for the treatment of cancer and other diseases and conditions.” Love called for a different approach to intellectual property and trade: “Rather than focusing on more intellectual property rights for drug companies, and a death-inducing spiral of higher prices and access barriers, the trade agreement could seek new norms to expand the funding of medical research and development (R&D) as a public good, an area where the US has an admirable track record, such as the public funding of research at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and other federal agencies.” In addition, there has been much concern about the Investment Chapter of the TPP. The investor-state dispute settlement regime would enable foreign investors to challenge government policy making, which affected their investments. In the context of healthcare, there is a worry that pharmaceutical drug companies will deploy their investor rights to challenge public health measures – such as, for instance, initiatives to curb drug pricing and profiteering. Such concerns are not merely theoretical. Eli Lilly has brought an investor action against the Canadian Government over the rejection of its drug patents under the investor-state dispute settlement regime of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The Health Annex to the TPP also raises worries that pharmaceutical drug companies will able to object to regulatory procedures in respect of healthcare. It is disappointing that the TPP – in the leaks that we have seen – has only limited recognition of the importance of access to essential medicines. There is a need to ensure that there are proper safeguards to provide access to essential medicines – particularly in respect of HIV/AIDs, malaria, and tuberculosis. Moreover, there must be protection against drug profiteering and price gouging in any trade agreement. There should be strong measures against the abuse of intellectual property rights. The dispute over Turing Pharmaceuticals AG and Daraprim is an important cautionary warning in respect of some of the dangers present in the secret negotiations in respect of the TPP. There is a need to preserve consumer rights, competition policy, and public health in trade negotiations over an agreement covering the Pacific Rim.

Benthic-pelagic coupling in the northern Baltic Sea: importance of bioturbation and benthic predation

Benthic-pelagic coupling describes processes that operate across and between the seafloor and open-water ecosystems. In soft-sediment communities, bioturbation by sediment-dwelling and epibenthic organisms may strongly shape habitat characteristics and influence processes, e.g. biogeochemical cycling, which supplies bioavailable nutrients to pelagic primary producers. In addition, benthic fauna may mediate benthic-pelagic coupling by affecting the survival and hatching of zooplankton dormant eggs in the sediment. In the shallow waters and seasonally fluctuating environment of the Baltic Sea, emergence from the seafloor essentially contributes to the dynamics of zooplankton pelagic populations. In this thesis, I examine how benthic organisms with different functional traits affect the link between the benthic and pelagic systems in the northern Baltic Sea. By means of experimental laboratory studies, the effects of sediment-dwelling (Monoporeia affinis, Macoma balthica and Marenzelleria spp.) and nectobenthic (Mysis spp.) taxa on the survival and hatching of zooplankton benthic eggs and on benthic nutrient fluxes and sediment structure were investigated. In the predation studies, the nectobenthic mysids Mysis spp. preyed upon benthic eggs of the cladoceran Bosmina longispina maritima (syn. B. coregoni maritima), both in pelagic and benthic environments. Of the sediment-dwelling species, the amphipod M. affinis and the bivalve M. balthica reduced the number of cladoceran eggs in the sediment, whereas the polychaetes Marenzelleria spp. had no effects on cladoceran eggs. Both M. balthica and M. affinis also increased the mortality rates of benthic eggs of copepods and rotifers. It was estimated that zooplankton eggs provide an additional carbon source for food-limited benthic communities. The results indicate that predation pressure on zooplankton benthic eggs may be strong, but varies widely depending on the season and the functional characteristics of the macrofauna. Macoma balthica buried cladoceran eggs and a fluorescent tracer from the sediment surface to a depth of 3 4 cm, indicating efficient sediment mixing. In contrast, the other taxa had fewer effects on particle distributions. In addition to organic matter mineralization, particle mixing is crucial to the success of benthic recruitment of zooplankton, since only eggs close to the sediment surface may hatch. Macoma balthica and M. affinis altered the patterns of zooplankton emergence from the sediment. In general, the highest emergence rates were observed in the absence of macroscopic fauna, and M. balthica exerted a stronger suppressive effect than M. affinis. Moreover, copepods were less severely affected than cladocerans, while only one species (Temora longicornis) clearly benefited from the presence of the macrofauna. These differences probably result from species-specific differences in the resistance of eggs to disturbances. The results show that benthic fauna may considerably alter the patterns of zooplankton emergence from the seafloor, thereby shaping zooplankton pelagic populations. The semi-motile M. balthica and Marenzelleria spp. increased the fluxes of phosphate and ammonium from the sediment to the water, whereas the motile M. affinis and Mysis mixta had a contrasting effect. In the eutrophied Baltic Sea, efficient internal cycling of bioavailable nutrients forms a strong feedback inhibiting the recovery of the ecosystem. Based on the results, a change in species dominance from the two motile taxa, susceptible to oxygen deficiency, to the more tolerant semi-motile taxa provides additional feedback, strengthening internal nutrient cycling and accelerating eutrophication, with deteriorating near-bottom oxygen conditions and changes in the benthic communities. In shallow-water ecosystems, benthic nutrient regeneration plays a key role in determining the overall productivity of the ecosystem. In addition, the results of this study show that the communities in the benthos may essentially contribute to the structure of those in the plankton.

Genistein and 17β-estradiol fatty acid esters in blood and adipose tissue and the structure-related antioxidant activity of estrogens on lipoproteins

Soy-derived phytoestrogen genistein and 17β-estradiol (E2), the principal endogenous estrogen in women, are also potent antioxidants protecting LDL and HDL lipoproteins against oxidation. This protection is enhanced by esterification with fatty acids, resulting in lipophilic molecules that accumulate in lipoproteins or fatty tissues. The aims were to investigate, whether genistein becomes esterified with fatty acids in human plasma accumulating in lipoproteins, and to develop a method for their quantitation; to study the antioxidant activity of different natural and synthetic estrogens in LDL and HDL; and to determine the E2 esters in visceral and subcutaneous fat in late pregnancy and in pre- and postmenopause. Human plasma was incubated with [3H]genistein and its esters were analyzed from lipoprotein fractions. Time-resolved fluoroimmunoassay (TR-FIA) was used to quantitate genistein esters in monkey plasma after subcutaneous and oral administration. The E2 esters in women s serum and adipose tissue were also quantitated using TR-FIA. The antioxidant activity of estrogen derivatives (n=43) on LDL and HDL was assessed by monitoring the copper induced formation of conjugated dienes. Human plasma was shown to produce lipoprotein-bound genistein fatty acid esters, providing a possible explanation for the previously reported increased oxidation resistance of LDL particles during intake of soybean phytoestrogens. Genistein esters were introduced into blood by subcutaneous administration. The antioxidant effect of estrogens on lipoproteins is highly structure-dependent. LDL and HDL were protected against oxidation by many unesterified, yet lipophilic derivatives. The strongest antioxidants had an unsubstituted A-ring phenolic hydroxyl group with one or two adjacent methoxy groups. E2 ester levels were high during late pregnancy. The median concentration of E2 esters in pregnancy serum was 0.42 nmol/l (n=13) and in pre- (n=8) and postmenopause (n=6) 0.07 and 0.06 nmol/l, respectively. In pregnancy visceral fat the concentration of E2 esters was 4.24 nmol/l and in pre- and postmenopause 0.82 and 0.74 nmol/l. The results from subcutaneous fat were similar. In serum and fat during pregnancy, E2 esters constituted about 0.5 and 10% of the free E2. In non-pregnant women most of the E2 in fat was esterified (the ester/free ratio 150 - 490%). In postmenopause, E2 levels in fat highly exceeded those in serum, the majority being esterified. The pathways for fatty acid esterification of steroid hormones are found in organisms ranging from invertebrates to vertebrates. The evolutionary preservation and relative abundance of E2 esters, especially in fat tissue, suggest a biological function, most likely in providing a readily available source of E2. The body s own estrogen reservoir could be used as a source of E2 by pharmacologically regulating the E2 esterification or hydrolysis.

Adhesion,Presence and Antifouling of Deinococcus geothermalis in Paper Machine Environment

This thesis has two items: biofouling and antifouling in paper industry. Biofouling means unwanted microbial accumulation on surfaces causing e.g. disturbances in industrial processes, contamination of medical devices or of water distribution networks. Antifouling focuses on preventing accumulation of the biofilms in undesired places. Deinococcus geothermalis is a pink-pigmented, thermophilic bacterium, and extremely resistant towards radiation, UV-light and desiccation and known as a biofouler of paper machines forming firm and biocide resistant biofilms on the stainless steel surfaces. The compact structure of biofilm microcolonies of D. geothermalis E50051 and the adhesion into abiotic surfaces were investigated by confocal laser scanning microscope combined with carbohydrate specific fluorescently labelled lectins. The extracellular polymeric substance in D. geothermalis microcolonies was found to be a composite of at least five different glycoconjugates contributing to adhesion, functioning as structural elements, putative storages for water, gliding motility and likely also to protection. The adhesion threads that D. geothermalis seems to use to adhere on an abiotic surface and to anchor itself to the neighbouring cells were shown to be protein. Four protein components of type IV pilin were identified. In addition, the lectin staining showed that the adhesion threads were covered with galactose containing glycoconjugates. The threads were not exposed on planktic cells indicating their primary role in adhesion and in biofilm formation. I investigated by quantitative real-time PCR the presence of D. geothermalis in biofilms, deposits, process waters and paper end products from 24 paper and board mills. The primers designed for doing this were targeted to the 16S rRNA gene of D. geothermalis. We found D. geothermalis DNA from 9 machines, in total 16 samples of the 120 mill samples searched for. The total bacterial content varied in those samples between 107 to 3 ×1010 16S rRNA gene copies g-1. The proportion of D. geothermalis in those same samples was minor, 0.03 1.3 % of the total bacterial content. Nevertheless D. geothermalis may endanger paper quality as its DNA was shown in an end product. As an antifouling method towards biofilms we studied the electrochemical polarization. Two novel instruments were designed for this work. The double biofilm analyzer was designed for search for a polarization program that would eradicate D. geothermalis biofilm or from stainless steel under conditions simulating paper mill environment. The Radbox instrument was designed to study the generation of reactive oxygen species during the polarization that was effective in antifouling of D. geothermalis. We found that cathodic character and a pulsed mode of polarization were required to achieve detaching D. geothermalis biofilm from stainless steel. We also found that the efficiency of polarization was good on submerged, and poor on splash area biofilms. By adding oxidative biocides, bromochloro-5,5-dimethylhydantoin, 2,2-dibromo-2-cyanodiacetamide or peracetic acid gave additive value with polarization, being active on splash area biofilms. We showed that the cathodically weighted pulsed polarization that was active in removing D. geothermalis was also effective in generation of reactive oxygen species. It is possible that the antifouling effect relied on the generation of ROS on the polarized steel surfaces. Antifouling method successful towards D. geothermalis that is a tenacious biofouler and possesses a high tolerance to oxidative stressors could be functional also towards other biofoulers and applicable in wet industrial processes elsewhere.

Effect of soil tillage on erosion and nutrient transport in plough layer runoff

Yhteenveto: Viljelymenetelmien vaikutus eroosioon ja ravinteiden huuhtoutumiseen

The thickness and volume of lake ice in Finland

Yhteenveto: Järvijään paksuus ja volyymi Suomessa jaksolla 1961-90

The watershed simulation and forecasting system in the National Board of and the Environment

Yhteenveto: Vesistömalleihin perustuva vesistöjen seuranta- ja ennustejärjestelmä vesi- ja ympäristöhallinnossa

Iron and manganese in groundwater in Finland : Occurrence in glacifluvial aquifers and removal by biofiltration

Yhteenveto: Rauta ja mangaani Suomen glasifluviaalisten akviferien pohjavedessä ja poisto biosuodatuksella

Determinants and Consequences of Information Sharing with Key Suppliers

As companies become more efficient with respect to their internal processes, they begin to shift the focus beyond their corporate boundaries. Thus, the recent years have witnessed an increased interest by practitioners and researchers in interorganizational collaboration, which promises better firm performance through more effective supply chain management. It is no coincidence that this interest comes in parallel with the recent advancements in Information and Communication Technologies, which offer many new collaboration possibilities for companies. However, collaboration, or any other type of supply chain integration effort, relies heavily on information sharing. Hence, this study focuses on information sharing, in particular on the factors that determine it and on its value. The empirical evidence from Finnish and Swedish companies suggests that uncertainty (both demand and environmental) and dependency in terms of switching costs and asset specific investments are significant determinants of information sharing. Results also indicate that information sharing improves company performance regarding resource usage, output, and flexibility. However, companies share information more intensely at the operational rather than the strategic level. The use of supply chain practices and technologies is substantial but varies across the two countries. This study sheds light on a common trend in supply chains today. Whereas the results confirm the value of information sharing, the contingent factors help to explain why the intensity of information shared across companies differ. In the future, competitive pressures and uncertainty are likely to intensify. Therefore, companies may want to continue with their integration efforts by focusing on the determinants discussed in this study. However, at the same time, the possibility of opportunistic behavior by the exchange partner cannot be disregarded.

Modeling and Forecasting Implied Volatility: Implications for Trading, Pricing, and Risk Management

Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied volatility surface (IVS). This implies that the assumptions behind the Black-Scholes (1973) model do not hold empirically, as asset prices are mostly influenced by many underlying risk factors. This thesis, consists of four essays, is modeling and forecasting implied volatility in the presence of options markets’ empirical regularities. The first essay is modeling the dynamics IVS, it extends the Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (DFW) (1998) framework; for instance, using moneyness in the implied forward price and OTM put-call options on the FTSE100 index, a nonlinear optimization is used to estimate different models and thereby produce rich, smooth IVSs. Here, the constant-volatility model fails to explain the variations in the rich IVS. Next, it is found that three factors can explain about 69-88% of the variance in the IVS. Of this, on average, 56% is explained by the level factor, 15% by the term-structure factor, and the additional 7% by the jump-fear factor. The second essay proposes a quantile regression model for modeling contemporaneous asymmetric return-volatility relationship, which is the generalization of Hibbert et al. (2008) model. The results show strong negative asymmetric return-volatility relationship at various quantiles of IV distributions, it is monotonically increasing when moving from the median quantile to the uppermost quantile (i.e., 95%); therefore, OLS underestimates this relationship at upper quantiles. Additionally, the asymmetric relationship is more pronounced with the smirk (skew) adjusted volatility index measure in comparison to the old volatility index measure. Nonetheless, the volatility indices are ranked in terms of asymmetric volatility as follows: VIX, VSTOXX, VDAX, and VXN. The third essay examines the information content of the new-VDAX volatility index to forecast daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates and compares its VaR forecasts with the forecasts of the Filtered Historical Simulation and RiskMetrics. All daily VaR models are then backtested from 1992-2009 using unconditional, independence, conditional coverage, and quadratic-score tests. It is found that the VDAX subsumes almost all information required for the volatility of daily VaR forecasts for a portfolio of the DAX30 index; implied-VaR models outperform all other VaR models. The fourth essay models the risk factors driving the swaption IVs. It is found that three factors can explain 94-97% of the variation in each of the EUR, USD, and GBP swaption IVs. There are significant linkages across factors, and bi-directional causality is at work between the factors implied by EUR and USD swaption IVs. Furthermore, the factors implied by EUR and USD IVs respond to each others’ shocks; however, surprisingly, GBP does not affect them. Second, the string market model calibration results show it can efficiently reproduce (or forecast) the volatility surface for each of the swaptions markets.