Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in São Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of São Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of São Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

An alternative procedure to decrease the dimension of the frequency dependent modal transformation matrices: Application in three-phase transmission lines with a vertical symmetry plane

The objective of this paper is to show an alternative representation in time domain of a non-transposed three-phase transmission line decomposed in its exact modes by using two transformation matrices. The first matrix is Clarke's matrix that is real, frequency independent, easily represented in computational transient programs (EMTP) and separates the line into Quasi-modes α, β and zero. After that, Quasi-modes α and zero are decomposed into their exact modes by using a modal transformation matrix whose elements can be synthesized in time domain through standard curve-fitting techniques. The main advantage of this alternative representation is to reduce the processing time because a frequency dependent modal transformation matrix of a three-phase line has nine elements to be represented in time domain while a modal transformation matrix of a two-phase line has only four elements. This paper shows modal decomposition process and eigenvectors of a non-transposed three-phase line with a vertical symmetry plane whose nominal voltage is 440 kV and line length is 500 km. © 2006 IEEE.

Corona effect in frequency dependent transmission line models

The inclusion of the corona effect in a frequency dependent transmission line model is proposed in this paper. The transmission line is represented through a cascade of π circuits and the frequency dependence of the longitudinal parameters is synthesized with series and parallel resistors and inductors. The corona effect will be represented using the Gary and Skilling-Umoto models. The currents and voltages along the line are calculated by using state-space technique. To demonstrate the accuracy and validity of the proposed frequency dependent line model, time domain simulations of a 10 km length single-phase line response under energization procedure will be presented. ©2008 IEEE.

Temporal Analysis of Lipopolysaccharide-Induced Sickness Behavior in Virgin and Lactating Female Rats

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fitting the frequency-dependent parameters in the Bergeron line model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Protonation Pattern, Tautomerism, Conformerism, and Physicochemical Analysis in New Crystal Forms of the Antibiotic Doxycycline

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A quantitative analysis of the polarization reversal in the 73 mol % vinylidene fluoride-27 mol % trifluorethylene copolymer

We show that a time-dependent, effective-medium approximation essentially explains the time behavior of the polarization reversals obtained in doped copolymers of vinylidene fluoride and trifluorethylene at 60°C by Ieda, Fukada, and Wada [J. Appl. Phys. 64, 2026 (1988)], who attributed the observed effects to charge accumulation at the boundaries of the permanently polarized crystallites. Moreover, the results seem to indicate that some hindrance (perhaps of mechanical origin) opposes the action of the switching electric field.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal childhood hepatitis A vaccination in Brazil: Regional analyses according to the endemic context

Objective: To To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of a universal childhood hepatitis A vaccination program in Brazil. Methods: An age and time-dependent dynamic model was developed to estimate the incidence of hepatitis A for 24 years. The analysis was run separately according to the pattern of regional endemicity, one for South + Southeast (low endemicity) and one for the North + Northeast + Midwest (intermediate endemicity). The decision analysis model compared universal childhood vaccination with current program of vaccinating high risk individuals. Epidemiologic and cost estimates were based on data from a nationwide seroprevalence survey of viral hepatitis, primary data collection, National Health Information Systems and literature. The analysis was conducted from both the health system and societal perspectives. Costs are expressed in 2008 Brazilian currency (Real). Results: A universal immunization program would have a significant impact on disease epidemiology in all regions, resulting in 64% reduction in the number of cases of icteric hepatitis, 59% reduction in deaths for the disease and a 62% decrease of life years lost, in a national perspective. With a vaccine price of R$16.89 (US$7.23) per dose, vaccination against hepatitis A was a cost-saving strategy in the low and intermediate endemicity regions and in Brazil as a whole from both health system and society perspective. Results were most sensitive to the frequency of icteric hepatitis, ambulatory care and vaccine costs. Conclusions: Universal childhood vaccination program against hepatitis A could be a cost-saving strategy in all regions of Brazil. These results are useful for the Brazilian government for vaccine related decisions and for monitoring population impact if the vaccine is included in the National Immunization Program. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of eruptive and seismic sequences to improve the short-and long-term eruption forecasting

Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

Power Transient Analysis of Experimental Devices for Jules Horowitz Material Testing Reactor (JHR)

The objective of this thesis is the power transient analysis concerning experimental devices placed within the reflector of Jules Horowitz Reactor (JHR). Since JHR material testing facility is designed to achieve 100 MW core thermal power, a large reflector hosts fissile material samples that are irradiated up to total relevant power of 3 MW. MADISON devices are expected to attain 130 kW, conversely ADELINE nominal power is of some 60 kW. In addition, MOLFI test samples are envisaged to reach 360 kW for what concerns LEU configuration and up to 650 kW according to HEU frame. Safety issues concern shutdown transients and need particular verifications about thermal power decreasing of these fissile samples with respect to core kinetics, as far as single device reactivity determination is concerned. Calculation model is conceived and applied in order to properly account for different nuclear heating processes and relative time-dependent features of device transients. An innovative methodology is carried out since flux shape modification during control rod insertions is investigated regarding the impact on device power through core-reflector coupling coefficients. In fact, previous methods considering only nominal core-reflector parameters are then improved. Moreover, delayed emissions effect is evaluated about spatial impact on devices of a diffuse in-core delayed neutron source. Delayed gammas transport related to fission products concentration is taken into account through evolution calculations of different fuel compositions in equilibrium cycle. Provided accurate device reactivity control, power transients are then computed for every sample according to envisaged shutdown procedures. Results obtained in this study are aimed at design feedback and reactor management optimization by JHR project team. Moreover, Safety Report is intended to utilize present analysis for improved device characterization.

Analysis of zinc oxide nanoparticles as a potential mutagen of respiratory epithelia

Metallische Nanopartikel und ihre Oxide (z.B. ZnO NP, TiO2 NP und Fe2O3 NP) werden aufgrund ihrer chemischen und physikalischen Eigenschaften häufig als Additive in der Reifenproduktion, in Katalysatoren, Lebensmitteln, Arzneimitteln und Kosmetikprodukten verwendet. Künftig wird ein kontinuierlicher Anstieg der industriellen Anwendung (~ 1663 Tonnen im Jahr 2025) mit gesteigerter Freisetzung in die Umwelt erwartet, was zwangsläufig zu einer vermehrten Aufnahme über das respiratorische Epithel führt. Metalldampffieber ist als gesundheitsschädigender Effekt von Metalloxid-haltigen Aerosolen (z.B. ZnO) nach Inhalation bekannt. Immunreaktionen, wie beispielsweise Entzündungen, werden häufig mit der Entstehung von Sauerstoffradikalen (ROS) in Verbindung gebracht, die wiederum zu DNA-Schäden führen können. Drei mögliche Ursachen der Genotoxität werden angenommen: direkte Interaktion von Nanopartikeln mit intrazellulären Strukturen, Interaktion von Ionen dissoziierter Partikel mit intrazellulären Strukturen sowie die Entstehung von ROS initiiert durch Partikel oder Ionen.rnDie vorliegende Studie befasst sich mit den Mechanismen der Genotoxizität von ZnO Nanopartikeln (ZnO NP), als Beispiel für metallische Nanopartikel, im respiratorischen Epithel. In der Studie wurde gezielt die intrazelluläre Aufnahme und Verteilung von ZnO NP, deren Toxizität, deren DNA schädigendes Potential sowie die Aktivierung der DNA damage response (DDR) analysiert.rnEs konnten kaum internalisierte ZnO NP mittels TEM detektiert werden. Innerhalb der ersten Sekunden nach Behandlung mit ZnO NP wurde spektrofluorometrisch ein starker Anstieg der intrazellulären Zn2+ Konzentration gemessen. In unbehandelten Zellen war Zn2+ in granulären Strukturen lokalisiert. Die Behandlung mit ZnO NP führte zu einer Akkumulation von Zn2+ in diesen Strukturen. Im zeitlichen Verlauf verlagerten sich die Zn2+-Ionen in das Zytoplasma, sowie in Zellkerne und Mitochondrien. Es wurde keine Kolokalisation von Zn2+ mit den frühen Endosomen und dem endoplasmatischen Retikulum beobachtet. Die Vorbehandlung der Zellen mit Diethylen-triaminpentaessigsäure (DTPA), als extrazellulärem Komplexbildner, verhinderte den intrazellulären Anstieg von Zn2+ nach Behandlung mit den Partikeln.rnDie Behandlung mit ZnO NP resultierte in einer zeit- und dosisabhängigen Reduktion der zellulären Viabilität, während die intrazelluläre ROS-Konzentrationen in den ersten 30 min leicht und anschließend kontinuierlich bis zum Ende der Messung anstiegen. Außerdem verringerte sich das mitochondriale Membranpotential, während sich die Anzahl der frühapoptotischen Zellen in einer zeitabhängigen Weise erhöhte. rnDNA Doppelstrangbrüche (DNA DSB) wurden mittels Immunfluoreszenz-Färbung der γH2A.X foci sichtbar gemacht und konnten nach Behandlung mit ZnO NP detektiert werden. Die Vorbehandlung mit dem Radikalfänger N-Acetyl-L-Cytein (NAC) resultierte in stark reduzierten intrazellulären ROS-Konzentrationen sowie wenigen DNA DSB. Die DNA Schädigung wurde durch Vorbehandlung mit DTPA ganz verhindert.rnDie Aktivierung der DDR wurde durch die Analyse von ATM, ATR, Chk1, Chk2, p53 und p21 mittels Western Blot und ELISA nach Behandlung mit ZnO NP überprüft. Der ATR/Chk1 Signalweg wurde durch ZnO NP nicht aktiviert. Die Komplexierung von Zn2+ resultierte in einer verminderten ATM/Chk2 Signalwegaktivierung. Es zeigte sich, dass das Abfangen von ROS keinen Effekt auf die ATM/Chk2 Signalwegaktivierung hatte.rnZusammengefasst wurde festgestellt, dass die Exposition mit ZnO NP in der Entstehung von ROS, reduzierter Viabilität und vermindertem mitochondrialem Membranpotential resultiert, sowie zeitabhängig eine frühe Apoptose initiiert. ZnO NP dissoziierten extrazellulär und wurden schnell als Zn2+ über unbekannte Mechanismen internalisiert. Die Zn2+-Ionen wurden im Zytoplasma, sowie besonders in den Mitochondrien und dem Zellkern, akkumuliert. Die DDR Signalgebung wurde durch ZnO NP aktiviert, jedoch nicht durch NAC inhibiert. Es wurde gezeigt, dass DTPA die DDR Aktivierung komplett inhibierte. Die Behandlung mit ZnO NP induzierte DNA DSB. Die Inhibition von ROS reduzierte die DNA DSB und die Komplexierung der Zn2+ verhinderte die Entstehung von DNA DSB.rnDiese Daten sprechen für die Dissoziation der Partikel und die hierbei freigesetzten Zn2+ als Hauptmediator der Genotoxizität metallischer Nanopartikel. rn

When to start antiretroviral therapy in children aged 2-5 years: a collaborative causal modelling analysis of cohort studies from southern Africa

BACKGROUND There is limited evidence on the optimal timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in children 2-5 y of age. We conducted a causal modelling analysis using the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaborative dataset to determine the difference in mortality when starting ART in children aged 2-5 y immediately (irrespective of CD4 criteria), as recommended in the World Health Organization (WHO) 2013 guidelines, compared to deferring to lower CD4 thresholds, for example, the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4 percentage (CD4%) <25%. METHODS AND FINDINGS ART-naïve children enrolling in HIV care at IeDEA-SA sites who were between 24 and 59 mo of age at first visit and with ≥1 visit prior to ART initiation and ≥1 follow-up visit were included. We estimated mortality for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds for up to 3 y using g-computation, adjusting for measured time-dependent confounding of CD4 percent, CD4 count, and weight-for-age z-score. Confidence intervals were constructed using bootstrapping. The median (first; third quartile) age at first visit of 2,934 children (51% male) included in the analysis was 3.3 y (2.6; 4.1), with a median (first; third quartile) CD4 count of 592 cells/mm(3) (356; 895) and median (first; third quartile) CD4% of 16% (10%; 23%). The estimated cumulative mortality after 3 y for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds ranged from 3.4% (95% CI: 2.1-6.5) (no ART) to 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5%) (ART irrespective of CD4 value). Estimated mortality was overall higher when initiating ART at lower CD4 values or not at all. There was no mortality difference between starting ART immediately, irrespective of CD4 value, and ART initiation at the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4% <25%, with mortality estimates of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5%) and 2.2% (95% CI: 1.4%-3.5%) after 3 y, respectively. The analysis was limited by loss to follow-up and the unavailability of WHO staging data. CONCLUSIONS The results indicate no mortality difference for up to 3 y between ART initiation irrespective of CD4 value and ART initiation at a threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4% <25%, but there are overall higher point estimates for mortality when ART is initiated at lower CD4 values. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

The sequence of addition of IL-3 and IgE-dependent/IgE-independent stimuli regulates RANKL expression in human basophils

Background: Receptor Activator of Nuclear Factor kappaB Ligand (RANKL), a member of the TNF superfamily, contributes to the imbalance of bone resorption and immunoregulation in rheumatoid arthritis. In mice, collagen induced arthritis was exacerbated by IL-3 and anti-IgER antibodies, two mediators activating basophils that are known as effector cells of allergy. Interestingly, our unpublished microarray data revealed that IL-3 induces RANKL mRNA in human basophils. Here we further investigate under which conditions human basophils express surface and/or soluble RANKL. Methods: One part of purified human basophils was co-stimulated with IL-3 and either IgE-dependent or IgE-independent stimuli. The other part of purified basophils was first primed with IL-3 and subsequently triggered with IgE-dependent or IgE-independent stimuli. Expression of surface and soluble RANKL were detected by flow cytometry, ELISA and real-time PCR. Results: By flow cytometry we show that IL-3 induces de novo expression of surface RANKL on human basophils in a time and dose dependent manner. Co-stimulation of basophils with IL-3 and an IgE-dependent stimulus reduces IL-3-induced expression of surface RANKL in a dose dependent manner while IgE-independent stimuli have no effect. In contrast, both IgE-dependent and IgE-independent stimuli enhance expression of surface and soluble RANKL in basophils that were first primed with IL-3 and then triggered. Real-time PCR analysis shows that surface hRANKL1 and soluble hRANKL3 are induced by IL-3 and reduced by co-stimulation with IL-3 and an IgE-dependent stimulus and thus confirms our flow cytometry data. Conclusion: RANKL expression in human basophils is not only dependent on IL-3 and IgE-dependent/IgE-independent stimuli but also on the sequence of their addition to cell culture. Based on our data, we suggest that basophils might have previously unidentified functions in bone resorption or immunoregulation via RANKL.

Time to renal disease and end-stage renal disease in PROFILE: a multiethnic lupus cohort.

BACKGROUND: Renal involvement is a serious manifestation of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE); it may portend a poor prognosis as it may lead to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The purpose of this study was to determine the factors predicting the development of renal involvement and its progression to ESRD in a multi-ethnic SLE cohort (PROFILE). METHODS AND FINDINGS: PROFILE includes SLE patients from five different United States institutions. We examined at baseline the socioeconomic-demographic, clinical, and genetic variables associated with the development of renal involvement and its progression to ESRD by univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Analyses of onset of renal involvement included only patients with renal involvement after SLE diagnosis (n = 229). Analyses of ESRD included all patients, regardless of whether renal involvement occurred before, at, or after SLE diagnosis (34 of 438 patients). In addition, we performed a multivariable logistic regression analysis of the variables associated with the development of renal involvement at any time during the course of SLE.In the time-dependent multivariable analysis, patients developing renal involvement were more likely to have more American College of Rheumatology criteria for SLE, and to be younger, hypertensive, and of African-American or Hispanic (from Texas) ethnicity. Alternative regression models were consistent with these results. In addition to greater accrued disease damage (renal damage excluded), younger age, and Hispanic ethnicity (from Texas), homozygosity for the valine allele of FcgammaRIIIa (FCGR3A*GG) was a significant predictor of ESRD. Results from the multivariable logistic regression model that included all cases of renal involvement were consistent with those from the Cox model. CONCLUSIONS: Fcgamma receptor genotype is a risk factor for progression of renal disease to ESRD. Since the frequency distribution of FCGR3A alleles does not vary significantly among the ethnic groups studied, the additional factors underlying the ethnic disparities in renal disease progression remain to be elucidated.

Characterization of microcirculation in multiple sclerosis lesions by dynamic texture parameter analysis (DTPA)

OBJECTIVE Texture analysis is an alternative method to quantitatively assess MR-images. In this study, we introduce dynamic texture parameter analysis (DTPA), a novel technique to investigate the temporal evolution of texture parameters using dynamic susceptibility contrast enhanced (DSCE) imaging. Here, we aim to introduce the method and its application on enhancing lesions (EL), non-enhancing lesions (NEL) and normal appearing white matter (NAWM) in multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS We investigated 18 patients with MS and clinical isolated syndrome (CIS), according to the 2010 McDonald's criteria using DSCE imaging at different field strengths (1.5 and 3 Tesla). Tissues of interest (TOIs) were defined within 27 EL, 29 NEL and 37 NAWM areas after normalization and eight histogram-based texture parameter maps (TPMs) were computed. TPMs quantify the heterogeneity of the TOI. For every TOI, the average, variance, skewness, kurtosis and variance-of-the-variance statistical parameters were calculated. These TOI parameters were further analyzed using one-way ANOVA followed by multiple Wilcoxon sum rank testing corrected for multiple comparisons. RESULTS Tissue- and time-dependent differences were observed in the dynamics of computed texture parameters. Sixteen parameters discriminated between EL, NEL and NAWM (pAVG = 0.0005). Significant differences in the DTPA texture maps were found during inflow (52 parameters), outflow (40 parameters) and reperfusion (62 parameters). The strongest discriminators among the TPMs were observed in the variance-related parameters, while skewness and kurtosis TPMs were in general less sensitive to detect differences between the tissues. CONCLUSION DTPA of DSCE image time series revealed characteristic time responses for ELs, NELs and NAWM. This may be further used for a refined quantitative grading of MS lesions during their evolution from acute to chronic state. DTPA discriminates lesions beyond features of enhancement or T2-hypersignal, on a numeric scale allowing for a more subtle grading of MS-lesions.