A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

Intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cell function in relation to age: a pupillometric study in humans with special reference to the age-related optic properties of the lens.

BACKGROUND: The activity of melanopsin containing intrinsically photosensitive ganglion retinal cells (ipRGC) can be assessed by a means of pupil responses to bright blue (appr.480 nm) light. Due to age related factors in the eye, particularly, structural changes of the lens, less light reaches retina. The aim of this study was to examine how age and in vivo measured lens transmission of blue light might affect pupil light responses, in particular, mediated by the ipRGC. METHODS: Consensual pupil responses were explored in 44 healthy subjects aged between 26 and 68 years. A pupil response was recorded to a continuous 20 s light stimulus of 660 nm (red) or 470 nm (blue) both at 300 cd/m2 intensity (14.9 and 14.8 log photons/cm2/s, respectively). Additional recordings were performed using four 470 nm stimulus intensities of 3, 30, 100 and 300 cd/m2. The baseline pupil size was measured in darkness and results were adjusted for the baseline pupil and gender. The main outcome parameters were maximal and sustained pupil contraction amplitudes and the postillumination response assessed as area under the curve (AUC) over two time-windows: early (0-10 s after light termination) and late (10-30 s after light termination). Lens transmission was measured with an ocular fluorometer. RESULTS: The sustained pupil contraction and the early poststimulus AUC correlated positively with age (p=0.02, p=0.0014, respectively) for the blue light stimulus condition only.The maximal pupil contraction amplitude did not correlate to age either for bright blue or red light stimulus conditions.Lens transmission decreased linearly with age (p<0.0001). The pupil response was stable or increased with decreasing transmission, though only significantly for the early poststimulus AUC to 300 cd/m2 light (p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Age did not reduce, but rather enhance pupil responses mediated by ipRGC. The age related decrease of blue light transmission led to similar results, however, the effect of age was greater on these pupil responses than that of the lens transmission. Thus there must be other age related factors such as lens scatter and/or adaptive processes influencing the ipRGC mediated pupil response enhancement observed with advancing age.

Cross-coding from the Swiss Disability Insurance listing to the ICIDH.

It has been suggested that converting, via a process of cross-coding, the listing used by the Swiss Disability Insurance (SDI) for their statistics into codes of the International Classification of Impairments, Disabilities, and Handicaps (ICIDH) would improve the quality and international comparability of disability statistics for Switzerland. Using two different methods we tested the feasibility of this cross-coding on a consecutive sample of 204 insured persons, examined at one of the medical observation centres of the SDI. Cross-coding is impossible, for all practical purposes, in a proportion varying between 30% and 100%, depending on the method of cross-coding, the level of disablement and the required quality of the resulting codes. Failure is due to lack of validity of the SDI codes: diseases are poorly described, consequences of diseases (disability and handicap, including loss of earning capacity), insufficiently described or not at all. Assessment of disability and handicap would provide necessary information for the SDI. It is concluded that the SDI should promote the use of the ICIDH in Switzerland, especially among medical practitioners whose assessment of work capacity is the key element in the decision to award benefits or propose rehabilitation.

From the “Mining Triangle” to the “Greater Region“ (“Großregion”/”Grande Région”). The Institutionalisation of the “SaarLorLux” Euroregion

Gairebé 182 milions d'ciutadans de la Unió Europea (= 37,5% de la població total) viuen en aproximadament 130 regions frontereres i transfrontereres. Aquestes regions contribueixen significativament al procés d'integració europea. Aquesta importància es documenta pel paquet dels Fons Estructurals 2007-2013, que ha estat presentat per la Comissió Europea i que va ser aprovat recentment pel Parlament Europeu. Considerant que la UE ha gastat uns 4875 € milions per a la cooperació transfronterera, transnacional i interregional en el marc de la iniciativa Interreg per al període 2000-2006, la cooperació territorial europea es convertirà en un dels tres objectius dels fons estructurals i rebrà € 7750000000 (5,57 milions d'euros per a la cooperació transfronterera només) per al període 2007-2013 (Comissió Europea, 2006a, 2006b). A part d'això, un nou conjunt de normes per a l'establiment d'una "agrupació europea de cooperació territorial" (AECT) ha estat adoptat i que facilitarà la cooperació transboundray, transnacional i interregional a la UE. Aquest treball s'ocuparà de les estructures de la institucionalització, la presa de decisions i l'execució i les polítiques de la "Gran Regió" / "Großregion" (d'ara endavant: GR o Gran Regió).

The discourse of health managers on aspects related to the delay in tuberculosis diagnosis

The aim of this study was to analyze the discourse of health managers on aspects related to delay in tuberculosis diagnosis. This was a qualitative research study, conducted with 16 Family Health Unit managers. The empirical data were obtained through semi-structured interviews. The analysis was based on the theoretical framework of the French school of discourse analysis. According to the managers’ statements, the delay in tuberculosis diagnosis is related to patient and health service aspects. As for patient aspects, managers report fear, prejudice and lack of information as factors that may promote a delayed diagnosis. Regarding health service aspects, structural problems and lack of professional skills were reported. The discourse of managers should be considered to qualify tuberculosis control actions and to prevent delays in diagnosis.

Structural and Resting State Functional Connectivity of the Subthalamic Nucleus: Identification of Motor STN Parts and the Hyperdirect Pathway.

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) for Parkinson's disease often alleviates the motor symptoms, but causes cognitive and emotional side effects in a substantial number of cases. Identification of the motor part of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) as part of the presurgical workup could minimize these adverse effects. In this study, we assessed the STN's connectivity to motor, associative, and limbic brain areas, based on structural and functional connectivity analysis of volunteer data. For the structural connectivity, we used streamline counts derived from HARDI fiber tracking. The resulting tracks supported the existence of the so-called "hyperdirect" pathway in humans. Furthermore, we determined the connectivity of each STN voxel with the motor cortical areas. Functional connectivity was calculated based on functional MRI, as the correlation of the signal within a given brain voxel with the signal in the STN. Also, the signal per STN voxel was explained in terms of the correlation with motor or limbic brain seed ROI areas. Both right and left STN ROIs appeared to be structurally and functionally connected to brain areas that are part of the motor, associative, and limbic circuit. Furthermore, this study enabled us to assess the level of segregation of the STN motor part, which is relevant for the planning of STN DBS procedures.

Partial melting of basic dykes in the contact aureoles of two shallow-level, gabbro-pyroxenite intrusions, Fuerteventura

THESIS ABSTRACT Low-pressure anatexis of basic dykes gave rise to unusual, zebra-like migmatites, in the contact metamorphic aureoles of two layered gabbro-pyroxenite intrusions, PXl and PX2, in the root zone of an ocean island, Fuerteventura Basal Complex (Canary Islands). This thesis focuses on the understanding of processes attributing to the partial melting and formation of these migmatites, characterised by a dense network of closely spaced, millimetre-wide leucocratic segregations with perfectly preserved igneous textures. The presence of fluids are required to decrease the solidus of basic igneous lithologies, to allow partial melting in such aloes-pressure (1-2 kb) environment. An oxygen isotope study was thus carried out on dykes inside and beyond the PX2 aureole, in order to decipher the nature and origin of such fluids. Low or negative δ18O values were obtained for whole rocks and mineral-separates, decreasing towards the contact, with the intrusion itself retaining fairly high values. This trend has been attributed to the advection of meteoric water during magma emplacement, with increasing fluid/rock ratios (higher dyke intensities towards the intrusion acting as fluid-pathways) and higher temperatures promoting increasing exchange during recrystallisation. A comparison of whole rock and mineral major- and trace- element data allowed the redistribution of elements .between different mineral phases and generations, during contact metamorphism and partial melting to be assessed. Certain trace-elements, e.g. Zr, Hf, Y, and REEs, were internally redistributed during contact metamorphic recrystallisation, causing- the enrichment of neocrystallised diopsides compared to relict phenocrysts. This has been assigned to the liberation of trace elements on the breakdown of primary minerals, kaersutite and sphene, on entering the thermal aureole. Major and trace element compositions of minerals in migmatite melanosomes and leucosomes are almost identical, pointing to a syn- or post- solidus reequilibration on cooling of the migmatite terrain. The mineralogical, textural and geochemical evolution of dykes in a contact metamorphic aureole, is recorded around an apophysis of the PX1 intrusion, where there is evidence of incipient partial melting. Hydrothermal mineral pseudomorphs in the outer parts of the aureole are progressively replaced by dry mineral assemblages, with increasingly recrystallised diopside and evidence of partial melting -the extent of which varies from one lithology to another. The appearance of more mafic lithologies towards the intrusion, with lower whole rock SiO2 and mobile element abundances, e.g. Rb, Cs, K, has been explained by the migration and accumulation of feldspathic material into leucosomes outside the samples. A micro-structural study of leucosomes and leucocratic pods, with the aid of high-resolution X-ray computed micro-tomography (HRXµCT), allowing the visualization and quantification of shapes and orientations, was carried out in order to better understand the processes of melt segregation in the PX1 aureole. Leucocratic pods, representing former amygdales, are considered as natural strain ellipsoids. Their short axes are oriented perpendicular to leucosome planes, which sub-parallel the intrusive contact. Leucosomes thus effectively represent foliation planes. This implies that the direction of maximum shortening, during migmatisation, was perpendicular to the orientation of leucosomes, contradicting earlier models that suggest leucosomes represent tension veins. RESUME DE LA THESE Un phénomène rare de fusion partielle de filons basiques à basse pression a été étudié dans les auréoles de contact de deux intrusions litées de gabbro-pyroxénite, PX1 et PX2, localisées dans le soubassement de l'île volcanique de Fuerteventura aux Canaries. Cette anatexie a engendré des migmatites finement zébrées d'aspect très inhabituel, dont les processus de formation ont été étudiés dans le présent travail. Ces roches sont caractérisées par un réseau dense de veinules leucocrates d'épaisseur millimétrique, dont les textures ignées sont parfaitement préservées. La fusion partielle de roches basiques à basse pression (1-2 kbar) requiert la présence d'eau afin d'abaisser le solidus du système à des températures géologiquement réalistes. Une étude comparative des isotopes de l'oxygène a ainsi été menée sur des filons respectivement affectés et non affectés par le métamorphisme de contact, afin de confirmer la présence de ces fluides, de déterminer l'importance de leur interaction avec les roches et leur origine. Des valeurs de δ180 basses ou négatives ont été mesurées sur roche totale et minéraux séparés, décroissantes en direction du contact, alors que l'intrusion elle-même a conservé des valeurs élevées. Ce gradient a été attribué à l'advection d'eau météorique durant la mise en place du magma, les températures les plus élevées favorisant d'autant plus la circulation des fluides et les échanges isotopiques durant la recristallisation des roches. Cette recristallisation engendré une redistribution chimique complète des éléments entre les différentes générations de minéraux résultant du métamorphisme de contact et de l'anatexie, mise en évidence par microanalyse. Certains éléments traces comme Zr, Hf, Y et les REE ont été concentrés dans le diopside néoformé consécutivement à la déstabilisation de minéraux primaires riches en ces éléments comme la kaersutite ou le sphène. Les compositions en éléments majeurs et traces des minéraux des mélanosomes et leucosomes des migmatites sont pratiquement identiques, indiquant une rééquilibration syn- à postsolidus lors du refroidissement de l'auréole de contact. La transformation progressive des filons basiques au niveau de leur minéralogie, textures et composition chimique a pu être observée en détail à l'approche du contact d'une apophyse de l'intrusion PX1. La paragenèse magmatique initiale n'est jamais préservée, les faciès les plus distants du contact étant constitués d'un assemblage pseudomorphique hydrothermal. Ce dernier est progressivement remplacé par des assemblages anhydres incluant du diopside néoformé, puis apparaissent les premiers signes de fusion partielle, dont l'importance varie fortement d'une lithologie à l'autre. L'apparition de faciès plus basiques en direction du contact, avec des teneurs réduites en SiO2 et en éléments incompatibles tels Rb, Cs, K, a été attribuée à l'échappement de leucosomes feldspathiques hors du système. Une étude microstructurale de la distribution spatiale du matériel leucocrate au sein des migmatites par microtomographie X de haute résolution (HRXµCT) a été menée pour mieux comprendre les processus de ségrégation des liquides dans l'auréole de PX1. De petites entités ovoïdes, représentant d'anciennes structures amygdalaires au sein des filons, ont été considérées comme des ellipsoïdes marqueurs de la déformation finie. Leur petit axe est orienté perpendiculairement aux plans définis par les leucosomes, eux-mêmes subparallèles au contact intrusif. Les leucosomes matérialisent donc des plans de clivage. Ainsi, la direction de raccourcissement maximum durant la fusion partielle était perpendiculaire à l'orientation des leucosomes, contrairement à ce qui a été dit dans de précédentes publications, qui suggéraient que les leucosomes représentaient des veines de tension. RESUME DE LA THESE (POUR LE GRAND PUBLIC) L'observation directe du soubassement d'une île volcanique est une occasion rare, accessible dans le «complexe de base » de l'île canarienne de Fuerteventura. Ce dernier a enregistré divers phénomènes magmatiques, métamorphiques et de fusion partielle induits par l'intrusion répétée de magmas alimentant des appareils volcaniques sus jacents, sous forme de petits plutons, essaims de filons et complexes annulaires de gabbros alcalins, pyroxénites, syénites et carbonatites. Dans ce contexte de flux de chaleur élevé, des filons basiques ont subi une fusion partielle au contact de deux intrusions de gabbro-pyroxénite, un phénomène extrêmement rare à une profondeur aussi réduite, estimée à quelque 3-6 km. Les produits de cette fusion partielle sont des liquides très riches en feldspath, concentrés en un réseau dense de veinules blanches (leucosomes) au sein du matériau résiduel sombre non fondu (mélanosome) pour former ce qu'on appelle des migmatites. Outre les aspects pétrologiques liés à la formation de ces migmatites, l'intérêt majeur du phénomène réside dans le fait qu'il puisse représenter la source des magmas évolués parfois observés sur les îles océaniques. A des pressions aussi faibles que dans le soubassement de Fuerteventura (1-2 Kbar), la présence de fluides abondants est nécessaire pour abaisser la température de début de fusion des roches (solidus) à des valeurs géologiquement réalistes. Des expériences ont montré que même en présence de plusieurs %-poids d'eau, une température de 1000°C était encore nécessaire pour obtenir une proportion de liquide équivalente à celle observée sur le terrain, soit 25%. Or les magmas alcalins des îles océaniques, bien qu'hydratés, n'en contiennent de loin pas autant, ce qui implique une source d'eau externe. Une étude isotopique de l'oxygène a été entreprise afin de tester cette hypothèse. Les valeurs obtenues en 5180 sont basses ou négatives et indiquent l'influence d'eau d'origine météorique. Cette eau de pluie se serait infiltrée le long des filons depuis la surface du volcan et les aurait complètement hydrothermalisés en profondeur (situation encore visible à l'extérieur de l'auréole de contact), leur permettant ainsi de stocker l'eau nécessaire à leur fusion partielle ultérieure. L'interaction entre eau de pluie et filons a été d'autant plus importante que ces derniers étaient proches du contact avec l'intrusion, ce qui suggère que la circulation de ces eaux et leur interaction avec les roches a été favorisée par la chaleur fournie par l'intrusion elle-même. Un autre aspect de ce travail s'est focalisé sur la redistribution des éléments traces au sein des minéraux des filons basiques durant le métamorphisme de contact et la fusion partielle. Ainsi, le pyroxène de seconde génération est-il sensiblement enrichi en traces telles Zr, Hf, Y et les terres rares, par rapport au pyroxène magmatique originel, en relation avec la déstabilisation de minéraux primaires riches en ces éléments tels le sphène et la kaersutite. Cependant, les compositions en éléments majeurs et traces des minéraux recristallisés des migmatites sont pratiquement les mêmes dans les leucosomes et les mélanosomes, suggérant une rééquilibration chimique complète durant le refroidissement de ces lithologies. Si certaines migmatites se sont comportées en système chimiquement fermé (hormis l'eau météorique), d'autres filons ont manifestement perdu une partie de leurs leucosomes, ainsi qu'en témoigne leur composition progressivement appauvrie en silice et autres éléments incompatibles mobiles, tels K et Rb à l'approche du contact de l'intrusion. Parallèlement à cette évolution chimique, les paragenèses hydrothermales distantes du contact sont progressivement remplacées par des paragenèses anhydres, puis par l'apparition des premiers leucosomes, tandis que les textures magmatiques initiales sont complètement effacées au profit d'une combinaison de textures magmatique dans les leucosomes et en mosaïque dans les mélanosomes. Enfin, la distribution spatiale des liquides de fusion partielle a été étudiée par microtomographie X de haute résolution, dans des filons contenant des entités ovoïdes leucocrates, sans doute d'anciennes amygdales à zéolites. Ces dernières ont été considérées comme des ellipsoïdes de la déformation finie. L'orientation de leur petit axe, perpendiculaire au plan défini par les veinules de leucosomes, indique que ces derniers représentent des plans de clivage perpendiculaires à la direction de raccourcissement maximum. Ainsi, la ségrégation des liquides de fusion partielle se serait faite dans les plans de compression et non dans des plans de dilatation, contrairement à ce que laisserait penser le sens commun.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling of arsenic in the mouse

A remarkable feature of the carcinogenicity of inorganic arsenic is that while human exposures to high concentrations of inorganic arsenic in drinking water are associated with increases in skin, lung, and bladder cancer, inorganic arsenic has not typically caused tumors in standard laboratory animal test protocols. Inorganic arsenic administered for periods of up to 2 yr to various strains of laboratory mice, including the Swiss CD-1, Swiss CR:NIH(S), C57Bl/6p53(+/-), and C57Bl/6p53(+/+), has not resulted in significant increases in tumor incidence. However, Ng et al. (1999) have reported a 40% tumor incidence in C57Bl/6J mice exposed to arsenic in their drinking water throughout their lifetime, with no tumors reported in controls. In order to investigate the potential role of tissue dosimetry in differential susceptibility to arsenic carcinogenicity, a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for inorganic arsenic in the rat, hamster, monkey, and human (Mann et al., 1996a, 1996b) was extended to describe the kinetics in the mouse. The PBPK model was parameterized in the mouse using published data from acute exposures of B6C3F1 mice to arsenate, arsenite, monomethylarsonic acid (MMA), and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA) and validated using data from acute exposures of C57Black mice. Predictions of the acute model were then compared with data from chronic exposures. There was no evidence of changes in the apparent volume of distribution or in the tissue-plasma concentration ratios between acute and chronic exposure that might support the possibility of inducible arsenite efflux. The PBPK model was also used to project tissue dosimetry in the C57Bl/6J study, in comparison with tissue levels in studies having shorter duration but higher arsenic treatment concentrations. The model evaluation indicates that pharmacokinetic factors do not provide an explanation for the difference in outcomes across the various mouse bioassays. Other possible explanations may relate to strain-specific differences, or to the different durations of dosing in each of the mouse studies, given the evidence that inorganic arsenic is likely to be active in the later stages of the carcinogenic process. [Authors]

Supplemental Information to the August 2008 Education Task Force Report, August 2008

The Rebuild Iowa Education Task Force is composed of Iowans with experience and expertise related to the impact of the tornadoes, storms, and floods of 2008 on the educational system in Iowa. The massive damage greatly impacted educational facilities and enrollment, resulting in thousands of displaced students and significant long-term rebuilding needs. In addition, the education system is a “community center,” and in many ways acts as a first responder to Iowans experiencing the disasters. It is important to also recognize this role and the need for “non-educational” (and often non-quantifiable) supports as a part of the overall recovery effort. There are a few parts of the state that sustained significant structural and other damage as a result of the disasters. However, many school districts and educational institutions throughout the state experienced damage that resulted in re-allocating building usage, enrollment issues (because of housing and relocation issues in the community), or use of school facilities to assist in the recovery efforts (by housing displaced community agencies and providing temporary shelter for displaced Iowans). At this time, damage estimates are only estimates and numbers are revised often. Estimates of damage are being developed by multiple agencies, including FEMA, the Iowa Department of Education, insurance companies, and schools themselves, since there are many different types of damage to be assessed and repaired. In addition to structural damage, educational institutions and communities are trying to find ways to quantify sometimes unquantifiable data, such as future revenue capabilities, population declines, and impact on mental health in the long-term. The data provided in this report is preliminary and as up to date as possible; information is updated on a regular basis as assessments continue and damage estimates are finalized. Supplemental Information to the August 2008 Education Task Force Report

Intermittent hemodialysis treatment in cefepime-induced neurotoxicity: Case report, pharmacokinetic modeling, and review of the literature.

Cefepime is a broad-spectrum cephalosporin indicated for in-hospital treatment of severe infections. Acute neurotoxicity, an increasingly recognized adverse effect of this drug in an overdose, predominantly affects patients with reduced renal function. Although dialytic approaches have been advocated to treat this condition, their role in this indication remains unclear. We report the case of an 88-year-old female patient with impaired renal function who developed life-threatening neurologic symptoms during cefepime therapy. She was treated with two intermittent 3-hour high-flux, high-efficiency hemodialysis sessions. Serial pre-, post-, and peridialytic (pre- and postfilter) serum cefepime concentrations were measured. Pharmacokinetic modeling showed that this dialytic strategy allowed for serum cefepime concentrations to return to the estimated nontoxic range 15 hours earlier than would have been the case without an intervention. The patient made a full clinical recovery over the next 48 hours. We conclude that at least 1 session of intermittent hemodialysis may shorten the time to return to the nontoxic range in severe clinically patent intoxication. It should be considered early in its clinical course pending chemical confirmation, even in frail elderly patients. Careful dosage adjustment and a high index of suspicion are essential in this population.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

Breaking the panels: an application to the GDP per capita

This paper proposes a test statistic for the null hypothesis of panel stationarity that allows for the presence of multiple structural breaks. Two different speci¿cations are considered depending on the structural breaks affecting the individual effects and/or the time trend. The model is ¿exible enough to allow the number of breaks and their position to differ across individuals. The test is shown to have an exact limit distribution with a good ¿nite sample performance. Its application to a typical panel data set of real per capita GDP gives support to the trend stationarity of these series

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

Breaking the panels: an application to the GDP per capita

This paper proposes a test statistic for the null hypothesis of panel stationarity that allows for the presence of multiple structural breaks. Two different speci¿cations are considered depending on the structural breaks affecting the individual effects and/or the time trend. The model is ¿exible enough to allow the number of breaks and their position to differ across individuals. The test is shown to have an exact limit distribution with a good ¿nite sample performance. Its application to a typical panel data set of real per capita GDP gives support to the trend stationarity of these series

Groundwater Availability Modeling of the Lower Dakota Aquifer in Northwest Iowa, October 2008

The 2007 Iowa General Assembly, recognizing the increased demand for water to support the growth of industries and municipalities, approved funding for the first year of a multi-year evaluation and modeling of Iowa’s major aquifers by the Iowa Department of Natural Resources. The task of conducting this evaluation and modeling was assigned to the Iowa Geological and Water Survey (IGWS). The first aquifer to be studied was the Lower Dakota aquifer in a sixteen county area of northwest Iowa.