Statistical modelling of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

Extreme rainfall events have triggered a significant number of flash floods in Madeira Island along its past and recent history. Madeira is a volcanic island where the spatial rainfall distribution is strongly affected by its rugged topography. In this thesis, annual maximum of daily rainfall data from 25 rain gauge stations located in Madeira Island were modelled by the generalised extreme value distribution. Also, the hypothesis of a Gumbel distribution was tested by two methods and the existence of a linear trend in both distributions parameters was analysed. Estimates for the 50– and 100–year return levels were also obtained. Still in an univariate context, the assumption that a distribution function belongs to the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution for monthly maximum rainfall data was tested for the rainy season. The available data was then analysed in order to find the most suitable domain of attraction for the sampled distribution. In a different approach, a search for thresholds was also performed for daily rainfall values through a graphical analysis. In a multivariate context, a study was made on the dependence between extreme rainfall values from the considered stations based on Kendall’s τ measure. This study suggests the influence of factors such as altitude, slope orientation, distance between stations and their proximity of the sea on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall. Groups of three pairwise associated stations were also obtained and an adjustment was made to a family of extreme value copulas involving the Marshall–Olkin family, whose parameters can be written as a function of Kendall’s τ association measures of the obtained pairs.

Method of numerical correction of errors occasioned by delay of records during the monitoring of environmental variables of interest for animal production

As condições de ambiente térmico e aéreo, no interior de instalações para animais, alteram-se durante o dia, devido à influência do ambiente externo. Para que análises estatísticas e geoestatísticas sejam representativas, uma grande quantidade de pontos distribuídos espacialmente na área da instalação deve ser monitorada. Este trabalho propõe que a variação no tempo das variáveis ambientais de interesse para a produção animal, monitoradas no interior de instalações para animais, pode ser modelada com precisão a partir de registros discretos no tempo. O objetivo deste trabalho foi desenvolver um método numérico para corrigir as variações temporais dessas variáveis ambientais, transformando os dados para que tais observações independam do tempo gasto durante a aferição. O método proposto aproximou os valores registrados com retardos de tempo aos esperados no exato momento de interesse, caso os dados fossem medidos simultaneamente neste momento em todos os pontos distribuídos espacialmente. O modelo de correção numérica para variáveis ambientais foi validado para o parâmetro ambiental temperatura do ar, sendo que os valores corrigidos pelo método não diferiram pelo teste Tukey, a 5% de probabilidade dos valores reais registrados por meio de dataloggers.

A non-invasive method for silencing gene transcription in honeybees maintained under natural conditions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Influence of sample type and collection method on Streptococcus mutans and Lactobacillus spp. counts in the oral cavity

Objectives: This study compared three methods of Streptococcus mutans and Lactobacillus spp. detection in the oral cavity: saliva swab (SS)-sample of stimulated saliva collected with swab; whole saliva (WS)-sample of 2 ml of stimulated saliva; and the dental plaque method (DP)-plaque sample of all dental surfaces.Methods: Thirty children were included in this study. In the first 15 children, the SS and WS methods were carried out before the dental plaque collection, and in the following 15, the sequence was inverted to evaluate possible interference of the methods sequence. The samples were diluted and inoculated in SB20 and Rogosa agar, respectively for S. mutans and Lactobacillus spp., at 37 degrees C for 48 h.Results: the results (cfu/mL) of S. mutans were analysed by the statistical Friedman's test. The levels of Lactobacillus spp. were analysed by descriptive statistics due to the high proportion of zero counts in the culture. In the first sequence of methods, the number of S. mutans counted for the SS method was inferior to DP and WS (P < 0.05), and the results for the WS and DP methods were similar. The detection of Lactobacillus spp. was observed just by the WS (100 %) and SS (14.3 %) methods. However, in the second experimental set the number of S. mutans detected by the DP method was similar to those of the SS and WS, however, the WS method showed higher values than SS (P < 0.05). A greater number of Lactobacillus spp. was detected by the WS method (100 %), followed by SS (55.5 %) and DP (33.3 %).Conclusions: the dental plaque collection and the sample of stimulated whole saliva presented similar results in the S. mutans count. The most suitable method to detect the Lactobacillus spp. level in the oral cavity is the stimulated whole saliva method. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influences of the insertion method in glass ionomer cement porosity

The aim of this study was to evaluate the presence of porosities inside the glass ionomer cement (GIC) after different techniques of material insertion. MATERIAL and METHOD: Specimens were prepared with high-viscosity GIC Ketac Molar Easymix and divided into three groups according to the insertion method: spatula (PI), Centrix injector (CI), and low-cost syringe (LCS). The specimens were fractured and observed with scanning electronic microscopy to quantitatively evaluate porosity inside the material using Image J Software. RESULTS: Statistical analysis, ANOVA application, and Tukey test to significance level of 5%, revealed that there was no statistical difference between the groups. CONCLUSION: Although the use of LCS has not decreased the porosity of the material, this insertion method is easy, accessible, and low cost, which makes it a viable alternative of use in the ART technique and in others bucal health programs. Microsc. Res. Tech., 2012. (c) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effects of Surface Hydration and Application Method on the Bond Strength of Self-Etching Adhesives to Dentin

The effect of application methods and dentin hydration on the bond strength of three self-etching adhesives (SEA) were evaluated; 195 extracted bovine incisors were used. The buccal surface was ground in order to expose the dentin, which remained 2-mm minimum thickness, measured by a thickness meter through an opening on the lingual surface. Adper Single Bond 2 (TM) was used for the control group. The SEA were applied following two modes of application: passive or active and two hydration states of the dentin surface-dry and wet. After light-curing, composite buildups were made using Grandio (TM) composite. The specimens were sectioned and tested with a microtensile bond strength test. The application method and the hydration state resulted in statistical differences (p = 0.000) making the values of active application for mu TBS to dentin higher than passive application. The wet surfaces showed higher mu TBS to dentin ratios than dry surfaces. There were no statistical differences in mu TBS among the SEA tested but there were differences regarding to control group.

Measurement of the top quark mass in the lepton plus jets final state with the matrix element method

We present a measurement of the top quark mass with the matrix element method in the lepton+jets final state. As the energy scale for calorimeter jets represents the dominant source of systematic uncertainty, the matrix element likelihood is extended by an additional parameter, which is defined as a global multiplicative factor applied to the standard energy scale. The top quark mass is obtained from a fit that yields the combined statistical and systematic jet energy scale uncertainty. Using a data set of 0.4 fb(-1) taken with the D0 experiment at Run II of the Fermilab Tevatron Collider, the mass of the top quark is measured using topological information to be: m(top)(center dot+jets)(topo)=169.2(-7.4)(+5.0)(stat+JES)(-1.4)(+1.5)(syst) GeV, and when information about identified b jets is included: m(top)(center dot+jets)(b-tag)=170.3(-4.5)(+4.1)(stat+ JES)(-1.8)(+1.2)(syst) GeV. The measurements yield a jet energy scale consistent with the reference scale.

A novel method for modeling the recoil in W boson events at hadron colliders

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effective thermal conductivity of beans via a steady-state method

Steady-state concentric cylinder equipment was used to determine the effective thermal conductivity of beans (Phaseolus vulgaris). The measuring cell had no heated end guards and its length to diameter ratio was 10.5. Glass beads were employed to assess the accuracy and repeatability of the experimental system under heat transfer conditions. The results agree well with those reported in the literature so that the system can be considered reliable. Corn was used to verify the system's accuracy under heat and mass transfer conditions. Again the results were satisfactory. Moisture migration was observed and measured during the tests with beans, but this behavior does not compromise thermal conductivity values if both thermal and mass transfer steady-states are correctly interpreted. The effective thermal conductivity increases linearly with increasing grain moisture content. Statistical regression leads to good estimates of the fitted parameters.

Multivariate quality control studies applied to Ca(II) and Mg(II) determination by a portable method

A portable or field test method for simultaneous spectrophotometric determination of calcium and magnesium in water using multivariate partial least squares (PLS) calibration methods is proposed. The method is based on the reaction between the analytes and methylthymol blue at pH 11. The spectral information was used as the X-block, and the Ca(II) and Mg(II) concentrations obtained by a reference technique (ICP-AES) were used as the Y-block. Two series of analyses were performed, with a month's difference between them. The first series was used as the calibration set and the second one as the validation set. Multivariate statistical process control (MSPC) techniques, based on statistics from principal component models, were used to study the features and evolution with time of the spectral signals. Signal standardization was used to correct the deviations between series. Method validation was performed by comparing the predictions of the PLS model with the reference Ca(II) and Mg(II) concentrations determined by ICP-AES using the joint interval test for the slope and intercept of the regression line with errors in both axes. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Clinical evaluation of abutment teeth of removable partial denture by means of the Periotest method

Prosthodontics should be one of the means of establishing conditions for the maintenance of periodontal health. The forces applied to the abutment teeth and their effects are very important considerations in the design and construction of the removable partial dentures. This 6-month follow-up clinical study evaluated the degree of mobility of abutment teeth of distal extension and tooth supported removable partial dentures by using Periotest. Two types of clasp design were selected for evaluation. In cases with unilateral and bilateral distal-extension, a clasp design including a T clasp of Roach retentive arm, a rigid reciprocal arm and a mesial rest were used. For the abutments of tooth-supported removable partial dentures, a second clasp design with a cast circumferential buccal retentive arm, a rigid reciprocal clasp arm and a rest adjacent to the edentulous ridges was selected. A total of 68 abutment teeth was analysed. Periotest values were made at the time of denture placement (control) and at 1, 3 and 6 months after the denture placement. The statistical analysis was performed using Friedman test. All analysis was performed at a 0.05 level of significance. The results revelled that no significant changes in tooth mobility were observed during the 6-months follow-up (P > 0.05). In conclusion, our findings suggest that adequate oral hygiene instructions, careful prosthetic treatment planning and regular recall appointments play an important role in preventing changes in abutment tooth mobility caused by removable partial denture placement.

Anaerobic threshold estimation by statistical modelling.

Anaerobic threshold (AT) is usually estimated as a change point problem by visual analysis of the cardiorespiratory response to incremental dynamic exercise. In this study, two phase linear (TPL) models of the linear-linear and linear-quadratic type were used for the estimation of AT. The correlation coefficient between the classical and statistical approaches was 0.88, and 0.89 after outlier exclusion. The TPL models provide a simple method for estimating AT that can be easily implemented using a digital computer for the automatic pattern recognition of AT.

Determination and statistical treatment of short-circuit currents for faults on the lines of networks of 440 kV CESP system

The distribution of short-circuit current is investigated by means of two methods, one direct and the other analytic; both methods consider uniform probability distribution of line faults. In the direct method, the procedure consists of calculating fault currents at equidistant points along the line, starting from one of the end points and considering the other end open. The magnitude of the current is classified according to Brazilian standards (regulation NBR-7118). The analytic method assumes that the distribution of short-circuit currents through the busbar and the distribution of the line length connected to it are known, as well as the independence of values. The method is designed to determine the probability that fault currents through a line will surpass the pre-established magnitude, thus generating frequency distribution curves of short-circuit currents along the lines.

Development and validation of an UV spectrophotometric method for determination of gatifloxacin in tablets

A simple, sensitive and accurate spectrophotometric method was developed for the assay of gatifloxacin in raw material and tablets. Validation of the method yielded good results concerning range, linearity, precision and accuracy. The absorbance was measured at 287 nm for gatifloxacin tablet solutions. The linearity range was found to be 4.0-14.0 μg/mL for gatifloxacin. It was also found that the excipients in the commercial tablets did not interfere with the method.

Decrease of the DNA damage levels after sperm preparation by layering method

The aim of this prospective study was to determine the DNA fragmentation levels before and after sperm preparation by layering method. A total of 78 patients submitted to assisted reproduction technology (ART) for infertility treatment were evaluated. Ejaculated spermatozoa were obtained by masturbation on the day of ART procedure. The evaluation of DNA fragmentation was performed in the fresh semen and after preparation by a layering method, respectively. After washing with PBS, the sperm pellets were smears and then processed for the terminal deoxyribonucleotidyl transferase (TdT)-mediated dUTP nick-end labelling (TUNEL) assay that was performed using a Cell Death Detection Kit with tetramethylrhodamine-labelled dUTP. For quantitative evaluation, 200 spermatozoa in randomly selected areas on microscope slides were evaluated and the percentage of TUNEL positive spermatozoa was determined. If ≥20% of selected sperm were TUNEL positive, the exam was considered abnormal. The mean percentage of DNA sperm fragmentation before sperm preparation was 17±8.3% and after 7.8±6.5% (p<0.0001). The exam was considered normal in 49 patients before preparation and in 73 patients after (p<0.0001). The sperm preparation with a layering method for the ART procedure is effective to select sperm with a significant decrease of the DNA damage.