Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging because of reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semistructured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. The “Hands-off” scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production under drought conditions. The “Fire management” scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared with the “Fire suppression” scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a “boundary object” to facilitate collaboration and integration of different perceptions of fire in the region. This approach also has the potential to inform decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

The “social” aspect of social-ecological systems: a critique of analytical frameworks and findings from a multisite study of coastal sustainability

We evaluate whether society can adequately be conceptualized as a component of social-ecological systems, given social theory and the current outputs of systems-based research. A mounting critique from the social sciences posits that resilience theory has undertheorized social entities with the concept of social-ecological systems. We trace the way that use of the term has evolved, relating to social science theory. Scientometic and network analysis provide a wide range of empirical data about the origin, growth, and use of this term in academic literature. A content analysis of papers in Ecology and Society demonstrates a marked emphasis in research on institutions, economic incentives, land use, population, social networks, and social learning. These findings are supported by a review of systems science in 18 coastal assessments. This reveals that a systems-based conceptualization tends to limit the kinds of social science research favoring quantitative couplings of social and ecological components and downplaying interpretive traditions of social research. However, the concept of social-ecological systems remains relevant because of the central insights concerning the dynamic coupling between humans and the environment, and its salient critique about the need for multidisciplinary approaches to solve real world problems, drawing on heuristic devices. The findings of this study should lead to more circumspection about whether a systems approach warrants such claims to comprehensiveness. Further methodological advances are required for interdisciplinarity. Yet there is evidence that systems approaches remain highly productive and useful for considering certain social components such as land use and hybrid ecological networks. We clarify advantages and restrictions of utilizing such a concept, and propose a reformulation that supports engagement with wider traditions of research in the social sciences.

From the consciousness industry to the creative industries : consumer-created content, social network markets, & the growth of knowledge

In studies of media industries, too much attention has been paid to providers and firms, too little to consumers and markets. But with user-created content, the question first posed more than a generation ago by the uses & gratifications method and taken up by semiotics and the active audience tradition (‘what do audiences do with media?’), has resurfaced with renewed force. What’s new is that where this question (of what the media industries and audiences did with each other) used to be individualist and functionalist, now, with the advent of social networks using Web 2.0 affordances, it can be re-posed at the level of systems and populations as well.

Designing to maintain human agency in context-aware systems

This paper describes a series of design games, specifically aimed at exploring shifts in human agency, how they are managed, and the impact this will have on the design of future context-aware applications. The games focussed on understanding information handling issues in dental practice with participants from the University of Queensland Dental School playing an active role in the activities. Participatory design activities reveal how technology solution impact on dental practices. By finding methods of representing technological possibilities in ways which can easily be understood we enhance the contribution that dentists can make to the design process.

Developing a participatory impact assessment approach and action research culture within a communication for social change organisation in Nepal

Developing an effective impact evaluation framework, managing and conducting rigorous impact evaluations, and developing a strong research and evaluation culture within development communication organisations presents many challenges. This is especially so when both the community and organisational context is continually changing and the outcomes of programs are complex and difficult to clearly identify.----- This paper presents a case study from a research project being conducted from 2007-2010 that aims to address these challenges and issues, entitled Assessing Communication for Social Change: A New Agenda in Impact Assessment. Building on previous development communication projects which used ethnographic action research, this project is developing, trailing and rigorously evaluating a participatory impact assessment methodology for assessing the social change impacts of community radio programs in Nepal. This project is a collaboration between Equal Access – Nepal (EAN), Equal Access – International, local stakeholders and listeners, a network of trained community researchers, and a research team from two Australian universities. A key element of the project is the establishment of an organisational culture within EAN that values and supports the impact assessment process being developed, which is based on continuous action learning and improvement. The paper describes the situation related to monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and impact assessment before the project began, in which EAN was often reliant on time-bound studies and ‘success stories’ derived from listener letters and feedback. We then outline the various strategies used in an effort to develop stronger and more effective impact assessment and M&E systems, and the gradual changes that have occurred to date. These changes include a greater understanding of the value of adopting a participatory, holistic, evidence-based approach to impact assessment. We also critically review the many challenges experienced in this process, including:----- • Tension between the pressure from donors to ‘prove’ impacts and the adoption of a bottom-up, participatory approach based on ‘improving’ programs in ways that meet community needs and aspirations.----- • Resistance from the content teams to changing their existing M&E practices and to the perceived complexity of the approach.----- • Lack of meaningful connection between the M&E and content teams.----- • Human resource problems and lack of capacity in analysing qualitative data and reporting results.----- • The contextual challenges, including extreme poverty, wide cultural and linguistic diversity, poor transport and communications infrastructure, and political instability.----- • A general lack of acceptance of the importance of evaluation within Nepal due to accepting everything as fate or ‘natural’ rather than requiring investigation into a problem.

Exploratory spatial analysis of social and environmental factors associated with the incidence of Ross River Virus in Brisbane, Australia

We used geographic information systems and a spatial analysis approach to explore the pattern of Ross River virus (RRV) incidence in Brisbane, Australia. Climate, vegetation and socioeconomic data in 2001 were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Brisbane City Council and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Information on the RRV cases was obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Spatial and multiple negative binomial regression models were used to identify the socioeconomic and environmental determinants of RRV transmission. The results show that RRV activity was primarily concentrated in the northeastern, northwestern, and southeastern regions in Brisbane. Multiple negative binomial regression models showed that the spatial pattern of RRV disease in Brisbane seemed to be determined by a combination of local ecologic, socioeconomic, and environmental factors.

Cipher cities : effective user interface design for building a digital social network around location-based gaming

In this paper we explore what is required of a User Interface (UI) design in order to encourage participation around playing and creating Location-Based Games (LBGs). To base our research in practice, we present Cipher Cities, a web based system. Through the design of this system, we investigate how UI design can provide tools for complex content creation to compliment and encourage the use of mobile phones for designing, distributing, and playing LBGs. Furthermore we discuss how UI design can promote and support socialisation around LBGs through the design of functional interface components and services such as groups, user profiles, and player status listings.

The influence of social communication networks on intentions to purchase on the web

Despite the increased offering of online communication channels to support web-based retail systems, there is limited marketing research that investigates how these channels act singly, or in combination with online channels, to influence an individual' s intention to purchase online. If the marketer's strategy is to encourage online transactions, this requires a focus on consumer acceptance of the web-based transaction technology, rather than the purchase of the products per se. The exploratory study reported in this paper examines normative influences from referent groups in an individual's on and offline social communication networks that might affect their intention to use online transaction facilities. The findings suggest that for non-adopters, there is no normative influence from referents in either network. For adopters, one online and one offline referent norm positively influenced this group's intentions to use online transaction facilities. The implications of these findings are discussed together with future research directions.

Social Awareness Concepts to Support Social Computing

Our social life is characterised by norms that manifest as attitudinal and behavioural uniformities among people. With greater awareness about our social context, we can interact more efficiently. Any theory or account of human interaction that fails to include social concepts could be suggested to lack a critical element. This paper identifies social concepts that need to be supported by future context-aware systems. It discusses the limitations of existing context-aware and Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) to support social psychology theories related to the identification and membership of social groups. We argue thatsocial norms are among the core modeling concepts that future context-aware systems need to capture with the view to support and enhance social interactions. The social concepts identified in this paper could be used to simulate agent interactions imbued with social norms or use ICT to facilitate, assist or enhance social interactions. They also could be used in virtual communities modeling where the awareness of a community as well as the process of joining and exiting a community are important.

An institutional understanding of triple bottom line evaluations and the use of social and environmental metrics

Measuring social and environmental metrics of property is necessary for meaningful triple bottom line (TBL) assessments. This paper demonstrates how relevant indicators derived from environmental rating systems provide for reasonably straightforward collations of performance scores that support adjustments based on a sliding scale. It also highlights the absence of a corresponding consensus of important social metrics representing the third leg of the TBL tripod. Assessing TBL may be unavoidably imprecise, but if valuers and managers continue to ignore TBL concerns, their assessments may soon be less relevant given the emerging institutional milieu informing and reflecting business practices and society expectations.

Citizen journalism as social networking : reporting the 2007 Australian Federal Election

One of the perceived Achilles heels of online citizen journalism is its perceived inability to conduct investigative and first-hand reporting. A number of projects have recently addressed this problem, with varying success: the U.S.-based Assignment Zero was described as "a highly satisfying failure" (Howe 2007), while the German MyHeimat.de appears to have been thoroughly successful in attracting a strong community of contributors, even to the point of being able to generate print versions of its content, distributed free of charge to households in selected German cities. In Australia, citizen journalism played a prominent part in covering the federal elections held on 24 November 2007; news bloggers and public opinion Websites provided a strong counterpoint to the mainstream media coverage of the election campaign (Bruns et al., 2007). Youdecide2007.org, a collaboration between researchers at Queensland University of Technology and media practitioners at the public service broadcaster SBS, the public opinion site On Line Opinion, and technology company Cisco Systems, was developed as a dedicated space for a specifically hyperlocal coverage of the election campaign in each of Australia's 150 electorates from the urban sprawls of Sydney and Brisbane to the sparsely populated remote regions of outback Australia. YD07 provided training materials for would-be citizen journalists and encouraged them to contribute electorate profiles, interview candidates, and conduct vox-pops with citizens in their local area. The site developed a strong following especially in its home state of Queensland, and its interviewers influenced national public debate by uncovering the sometimes controversial personal views of mainstream and fringe candidates. At the same time, the success of YD07 was limited by external constraints determined by campaign timing and institutional frameworks. As part of a continuing action research cycle, lessons learnt from Youdecide2007.org are going to be translated into further iterations of the project, which will cover the local government elections in the Australian state of Queensland, to be held in March 2008, and developments subsequent to these elections. This paper will present research outcomes from the Youdecide2007.org project. In particular, it will examine the roles of staff contributors and citizen journalists in attracting members, providing information, promoting discussion, and fostering community on the site: early indications from a study of interaction data on the site indicate notably different contribution patterns and effects for staff and citizen participants, which may point towards the possibility of developing more explicit pro-am collaboration models in line with the Pro-Am phenomenon outlined by Leadbeater & Miller (2004). The paper will outline strengths and weaknesses of the Youdecide model and highlight requirements for the successful development of active citizen journalism communities. In doing so, it will also evaluate the feasibility of hyperlocal citizen journalism approaches, and their interrelationship with broader regional, state, and national journalism in both its citizen and industrial forms.

Generative systems as relational bridges

Generative media systems present an opportunity for users to leverage computational systems to make sense of complex media forms through interactive and collaborative experiences. Generative music and art are a relatively new phenomenon that use procedural invention as a creative technique to produce music and visual media. These kinds of systems present a range of affordances that can facilitate new kinds of relationships with music and media performance and production. Early systems have demonstrated the potential to provide access to collaborative ensemble experiences to users with little formal musical or artistic expertise. This paper examines the relational affordances of these systems evidenced by selected field data drawn from the Network Jamming Project. These generative performance systems enable access to unique ensemble with very little musical knowledge or skill and they further offer the possibility of unique interactive relationships with artists and musical knowledge through collaborative performance. In this presentation I will focus on demonstrating how these simulated experiences might lead to understandings that may be of educational and social benefit. Conference participants will be invited to jam in real time using virtual interfaces and to view video artifacts that demonstrate an interactive relationship with artists.

Eco-retrofitting with building integrated living systems

Building integrated living systems (BILS), such as green roofs and living walls, could mitigate many of the challenges presented by climate change and biodiversity protection. However, few if any such systems have been constructed, and current tools for evaluating them are limited, especially under Australian subtropical conditions. BILS are difficult to assess, because living systems interact with complex, changing and site-specific social and environmental conditions. Our past research in design for eco-services has confirmed the need for better means of assessing the ecological values of BILS - let alone better models for assessing their thermal and hydrological performance. To address this problem, a research project is being developed jointly by researchers at the Central Queensland University (CQ University) and the Queensland University of Technology (QUT), along with industry collaborators. A mathematical model under development at CQ University will be applied and tested to determine its potential for predicting their complex, dynamic behaviour in different contexts. However, the paper focuses on the work at QUT. The QUT school of design is generating designs for living walls and roofs that provide a range of ecosystem goods and services, or ‘eco-services’, for a variety of micro-climates and functional contexts. The research at QUT aims to develop appropriate designs, virtual prototypes and quantitative methods for assessing the potential multiple benefits of BILS in subtropical climates. It is anticipated that the CQ University model for predicting thermal behaviour of living systems will provide a platform for the integration of ecological criteria and indicators. QUT will also explore means to predict and measure the value of eco-services provided by the systems, which is still largely uncharted territory. This research is ultimately intended to facilitate the eco-retrofitting of cities to increase natural capital and urban resource security - an essential component of sustainability. The talk will present the latest range of multifunctional, eco-productive living walls, roofs and urban space frames and their eco-services.