Non-industrial private forest landowners’ choices of timber management strategies.

The factors affecting the non-industrial, private forest landowners' (hereafter referred to using the acronym NIPF) strategic decisions in management planning are studied. A genetic algorithm is used to induce a set of rules predicting potential cut of the landowners' choices of preferred timber management strategies. The rules are based on variables describing the characteristics of the landowners and their forest holdings. The predictive ability of a genetic algorithm is compared to linear regression analysis using identical data sets. The data are cross-validated seven times applying both genetic algorithm and regression analyses in order to examine the data-sensitivity and robustness of the generated models. The optimal rule set derived from genetic algorithm analyses included the following variables: mean initial volume, landowner's positive price expectations for the next eight years, landowner being classified as farmer, and preference for the recreational use of forest property. When tested with previously unseen test data, the optimal rule set resulted in a relative root mean square error of 0.40. In the regression analyses, the optimal regression equation consisted of the following variables: mean initial volume, proportion of forestry income, intention to cut extensively in future, and positive price expectations for the next two years. The R2 of the optimal regression equation was 0.34 and the relative root mean square error obtained from the test data was 0.38. In both models, mean initial volume and positive stumpage price expectations were entered as significant predictors of potential cut of preferred timber management strategy. When tested with the complete data set of 201 observations, both the optimal rule set and the optimal regression model achieved the same level of accuracy.

Semi-Supervised Classification Using Sparse Gaussian Process Regression

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are promising Bayesian methods for classification and regression problems. They have also been used for semi-supervised learning tasks. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm for solving semi-supervised binary classification problem using sparse GP regression (GPR) models. It is closely related to semi-supervised learning based on support vector regression (SVR) and maximum margin clustering. The proposed algorithm is simple and easy to implement. It gives a sparse solution directly unlike the SVR based algorithm. Also, the hyperparameters are estimated easily without resorting to expensive cross-validation technique. Use of sparse GPR model helps in making the proposed algorithm scalable. Preliminary results on synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrate the efficacy of the new algorithm.

Optimization of an ammonia reactor using regression analysis

This paper presents an optimization algorithm for an ammonia reactor based on a regression model relating the yield to several parameters, control inputs and disturbances. This model is derived from the data generated by hybrid simulation of the steady-state equations describing the reactor behaviour. The simplicity of the optimization program along with its ability to take into account constraints on flow variables make it best suited in supervisory control applications.

Lypsylehmän energiataseen mallintaminen tuotoskauden alkuvaiheessa

Energiataseen mallinnus on osa KarjaKompassi-hankkeeseen liittyvää kehitystyötä. Tutkielman tavoitteena oli kehittää lypsylehmän energiatasetta etukäteen ennustavia ja tuotoskauden aikana saatavia tietoja hyödyntäviä matemaattisia malleja. Selittävinä muuttujina olivat dieetti-, rehu-, maitotuotos-, koelypsy-, elopaino- ja kuntoluokkatiedot. Tutkimuksen aineisto kerättiin 12 Suomessa tehdyistä 8 – 28 laktaatioviikon pituisesta ruokintakokeesta, jotka alkoivat heti poikimisen jälkeen. Mukana olleista 344 lypsylehmästä yksi neljäsosa oli friisiläis- ja loput ayshire-rotuisia. Vanhempien lehmien päätiedosto sisälsi 2647 havaintoa (koe * lehmä * laktaatioviikko) ja ensikoiden 1070. Aineisto käsiteltiin SAS-ohjelmiston Mixed-proseduuria käyttäen ja poikkeavat havainnot poistettiin Tukeyn menetelmällä. Korrelaatioanalyysillä tarkasteltiin energiataseen ja selittävien muuttujien välisiä yhteyksiä. Energiatase mallinnettiin regressioanalyysillä. Laktaatiopäivän vaikutusta energiataseeseen selitettiin viiden eri funktion avulla. Satunnaisena tekijänä mallissa oli lehmä kokeen sisällä. Mallin sopivuutta aineistoon tarkasteltiin jäännösvirheen, selitysasteen ja Bayesin informaatiokriteerin avulla. Parhaat mallit testattiin riippumattomassa aineistossa. Laktaatiopäivän vaikutusta energiataseeseen selitti hyvin Ali-Schaefferin funktio, jota käytettiin perusmallina. Kaikissa energiatasemalleissa vaihtelu kasvoi laktaatioviikosta 12. alkaen, kun havaintojen määrä väheni ja energiatase muuttui positiiviseksi. Ennen poikimista käytettävissä olevista muuttujista dieetin väkirehuosuus ja väkirehun syönti-indeksi paransivat selitysastetta ja pienensivät jäännösvirhettä. Ruokinnan onnistumista voidaan seurata maitotuotoksen, maidon rasvapitoisuuden ja rasva-valkuaissuhteen tai EKM:n sisältävillä malleilla. EKM:n vakiointi pienensi mallin jäännösvirhettä. Elopaino ja kuntoluokka olivat heikkoja selittäjiä. Malleja voidaan hyödyntää karjatason ruokinnan suunnittelussa ja seurannassa, mutta yksittäisen lehmän energiataseen ennustamiseen ne eivät sovellu.

The effect of progesterone replacement on gene expression in the corpus luteum during induced regression and late luteal phase in the bonnet monkey (Macaca radiata)

Background: In higher primates, although LH/CG play a critical role in the control of corpus luteum (CL) function, the direct effects of progesterone (P4) in the maintenance of CL structure and function are unclear. Several experiments were conducted in the bonnet monkey to examine direct effects of P4 on gene expression changes in the CL, during induced luteolysis and the late luteal phase of natural cycles. Methods: To identify differentially expressed genes encoding PR, PR binding factors, cofactors and PR downstream signaling target genes, the genome-wide analysis data generated in CL of monkeys after LH/P-4 depletion and LH replacement were mined and validated by real-time RT-PCR analysis. Initially, expression of these P4 related genes were determined in CL during different stages of luteal phase. The recently reported model system of induced luteolysis, yet capable of responsive to tropic support, afforded an ideal situation to examine direct effects of P4 on structure and function of CL. For this purpose, P4 was infused via ALZET pumps into monkeys 24 h after LH/P4 depletion to maintain mid luteal phase circulating P4 concentration (P4 replacement). In another experiment, exogenous P4 was supplemented during late luteal phase to mimic early pregnancy. Results: Based on the published microarray data, 45 genes were identified to be commonly regulated by LH and P4. From these 19 genes belonging to PR signaling were selected to determine their expression in LH/P-4 depletion and P4 replacement experiments. These 19 genes when analyzed revealed 8 genes to be directly responsive to P4, whereas the other genes to be regulated by both LH and P4. Progesterone supplementation for 24 h during the late luteal phase also showed changes in expression of 17 out of 19 genes examined. Conclusion: These results taken together suggest that P4 regulates, directly or indirectly, expression of a number of genes involved in the CL structure and function.

Counselling and predictive testing for familial adenomatous polyposis in a rural South Indian community

Background—Mutations of the APC gene cause familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP), a hereditary colorectal cancer predisposition syndrome.Aims—To conduct a cost comparison analysis of predictive genetic testing versus conventional clinical screening for individuals at risk of inheriting FAP, using the perspective of a third party payer. Methods—All direct health care costs for both screening strategies were measured according to time and motion, and the expected costs evaluated using a decision analysis model.Results—The baseline analysis predicted that screening a prototype FAP family would cost $4975/£3109 by molecular testingand $8031/£5019 by clinical screening strategy, when family members were monitored with the same frequency of clinical surveillance (every two to three years). Sensitivity analyses revealed that the genetic testing approach is cost saving for key variables including the kindred size, the age of screening onset, and the cost of mutation identification in a proband. However, if the APC mutation carriers were monitored at an increased (annual) frequency, the cost of the genetic screening strategy increased to $7483/ £4677 and was especially sensitive to variability in age of onset of screening, family size, and cost of genetic testing of at risk relatives. Conclusions—In FAP kindreds, a predictive genetic testing strategy costs less than conventional clinical screening, provided that the frequency of surveillance is identical using either strategy. An additional significant benefit is the elimination of unnecessary colonic examinations for those family members found to be noncarriers.

Predictive uncertainty of chaotic daily streamflow using ensemble wavelet networks approach

Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%-50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

Online character recognition using regression techniques

This paper introduces a scheme for classification of online handwritten characters based on polynomial regression of the sampled points of the sub-strokes in a character. The segmentation is done based on the velocity profile of the written character and this requires a smoothening of the velocity profile. We propose a novel scheme for smoothening the velocity profile curve and identification of the critical points to segment the character. We also porpose another method for segmentation based on the human eye perception. We then extract two sets of features for recognition of handwritten characters. Each sub-stroke is a simple curve, a part of the character, and is represented by the distance measure of each point from the first point. This forms the first set of feature vector for each character. The second feature vector are the coeficients obtained from the B-splines fitted to the control knots obtained from the segmentation algorithm. The feature vector is fed to the SVM classifier and it indicates an efficiency of 68% using the polynomial regression technique and 74% using the spline fitting method.

Optimal local polynomial regression of noisy time varying signals

We address the problem of local-polynomial modeling of smooth time-varying signals with unknown functional form, in the presence of additive noise. The problem formulation is in the time domain and the polynomial coefficients are estimated in the pointwise minimum mean square error (PMMSE) sense. The choice of the window length for local modeling introduces a bias-variance tradeoff, which we solve optimally by using the intersection-of-confidence-intervals (ICI) technique. The combination of the local polynomial model and the ICI technique gives rise to an adaptive signal model equipped with a time-varying PMMSE-optimal window length whose performance is superior to that obtained by using a fixed window length. We also evaluate the sensitivity of the ICI technique with respect to the confidence interval width. Simulation results on electrocardiogram (ECG) signals show that at 0dB signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), one can achieve about 12dB improvement in SNR. Monte-Carlo performance analysis shows that the performance is comparable to the basic wavelet techniques. For 0 dB SNR, the adaptive window technique yields about 2-3dB higher SNR than wavelet regression techniques and for SNRs greater than 12dB, the wavelet techniques yield about 2dB higher SNR.

Nonlinear Model Predictive Spread Acceleration Guidance with Impact Angle Constraint for Stationary Targets

A new technique named as model predictive spread acceleration guidance (MPSAG) is proposed in this paper. It combines nonlinear model predictive control and spread acceleration guidance philosophies. This technique is then used to design a nonlinear suboptimal guidance law for a constant speed missile against stationary target with impact angle constraint. MPSAG technique can be applied to a class of nonlinear problems, which leads to a closed form solution of the lateral acceleration (latax) history update. Guidance command assumed is the lateral acceleration (latax), applied normal to the velocity vector. The new guidance law is validated by considering the nonlinear kinematics with both lag-free as well as first order autopilot delay. The simulation results show that the proposed technique is quite promising to come up with a nonlinear guidance law that leads to both very small miss distance as well as the desired impact angle.

Computationally Efficient Sub-optimal Mid Course Guidance Using Model Predictive Static Programming (MPSP)

For a homing interceptor, suitable initial condition must be achieved by mid course guidance scheme for its maximum effectiveness. To achieve desired end goal of any mid course guidance scheme, two point boundary value problem must be solved online with all realistic constrain. A Newly developed computationally efficient technique named as MPSP (Model Predictive Static Programming) is utilized in this paper for obtaining suboptimal solution of optimal mid course guidance. Time to go uncertainty is avoided in this formulation by making use of desired position where midcourse guidance terminate and terminal guidance takes over. A suitable approach angle towards desired point also can be specified in this guidance law formulation. This feature makes this law particularly attractive because warhead effectiveness issue can be indirectly solved in mid course phase.

Nonlinear Model Predictive Spread Acceleration Guidance with Impact Angle Constraint for Slow-moving Targets

A new technique named as model predictive spread acceleration guidance (MPSAG) is proposed in this paper. It combines nonlinear model predictive control and spread acceleration guidance philosophies. This technique is then used to design a nonlinear suboptimal guidance law for a constant speed missile against stationary target with impact angle constraint. MPSAG technique can be applied to a class of nonlinear problems, which leads to a closed form solution of the lateral acceleration (latax) history update. Guidance command assumed is the lateral acceleration (latax), applied normal to the velocity vector. The new guidance law is validated by considering the nonlinear kinematics with both lag-free as well as first order autopilot delay. The simulation results show that the proposed technique is quite promising to come up with a nonlinear guidance law that leads to both very small miss distance as well as the desired impact angle.

Focussed Crawling with large scale Ordinal Regression Solvers

In this paper we propose a novel, scalable, clustering based Ordinal Regression formulation, which is an instance of a Second Order Cone Program (SOCP) with one Second Order Cone (SOC) constraint. The main contribution of the paper is a fast algorithm, CB-OR, which solves the proposed formulation more eficiently than general purpose solvers. Another main contribution of the paper is to pose the problem of focused crawling as a large scale Ordinal Regression problem and solve using the proposed CB-OR. Focused crawling is an efficient mechanism for discovering resources of interest on the web. Posing the problem of focused crawling as an Ordinal Regression problem avoids the need for a negative class and topic hierarchy, which are the main drawbacks of the existing focused crawling methods. Experiments on large synthetic and benchmark datasets show the scalability of CB-OR. Experiments also show that the proposed focused crawler outperforms the state-of-the-art.