SESAM - a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio-temporal patterns of species assemblages

Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realised properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S-SDM) starts with constituent species to approximate assemblage properties. Here, we propose to unify the two approaches in a single 'spatially-explicit species assemblage modelling' (SESAM) framework. This framework uses relevant species source pool designations, macroecological factors, and ecological assembly rules to constrain predictions of the richness and composition of species assemblages obtained by stacking predictions of individual species distributions. We believe that such a framework could prove useful in many theoretical and applied disciplines of ecology and evolution, both for improving our basic understanding of species assembly across spatio-temporal scales and for anticipating expected consequences of local, regional or global environmental changes. In this paper, we propose such a framework and call for further developments and testing across a broad range of community types in a variety of environments.

Range-Wide Sex-Chromosome Sequence Similarity Supports Occasional XY Recombination in European Tree Frogs (Hyla arborea).

In contrast with mammals and birds, most poikilothermic vertebrates feature structurally undifferentiated sex chromosomes, which may result either from frequent turnovers, or from occasional events of XY recombination. The latter mechanism was recently suggested to be responsible for sex-chromosome homomorphy in European tree frogs (Hyla arborea). However, no single case of male recombination has been identified in large-scale laboratory crosses, and populations from NW Europe consistently display sex-specific allelic frequencies with male-diagnostic alleles, suggesting the absence of recombination in their recent history. To address this apparent paradox, we extended the phylogeographic scope of investigations, by analyzing the sequences of three sex-linked markers throughout the whole species distribution. Refugial populations (southern Balkans and Adriatic coast) show a mix of X and Y alleles in haplotypic networks, and no more within-individual pairwise nucleotide differences in males than in females, testifying to recurrent XY recombination. In contrast, populations of NW Europe, which originated from a recent postglacial expansion, show a clear pattern of XY differentiation; the X and Y gametologs of the sex-linked gene Med15 present different alleles, likely fixed by drift on the front wave of expansions, and kept differentiated since. Our results support the view that sex-chromosome homomorphy in H. arborea is maintained by occasional or historical events of recombination; whether the frequency of these events indeed differs between populations remains to be clarified.

Distribution of neuronal and metabolic markers in the human auditory cortex

SUMMARY The human auditory cortex, located on the supratemporal plane of the temporal lobe, is divided in a primary auditory area and several non-primary areas surrounding it. These different areas show anatomical and functional differences. Many studies have focussed on auditory areas in non-human primates, using investigation techniques such as electrophysiological recordings, tracing of neural connections, or immunohistochemical and histochemical staining. Some of these studies have suggested parallel and hierarchical organization of the cortical auditory areas as well as subcortical auditory relays. In humans, only few studies have investigated these regions immunohistochemically, but activation and lesion studies speak in favour of parallel and hierarchical organization, very similar to that of non-human primates. Calcium-binding proteins and metabolic markers were used to investigate possible correlates of hierarchical and parallel organization in man. Calcium-binding proteins, parvalbumin, calretinin and calbindin, modulate the concentration of intracellular free calcium ions and were found in distinct subpopulations of GABAergic neurons in non-human primates species. In our study, their distribution showed several differences between auditory areas: the primary auditory area was darkly stained for both parvalbumin and calbindin, and their expression rapidly decreased while moving away from the primary area. This staining pattern suggests a hierarchical organization of the areas, in which the more darkly stained areas could correspond to an earlier integration level and the areas showing light staining may correspond to higher level integration areas. Parallel organization of primary and non-primary auditory areas was suggested by the complementarity, within a given area, between parvalbumin and calbindin expression across layers. To investigate the possible differences in the energetic metabolism of the cortical auditory areas, several metabolic markers were used: cytochrome oxidase and LDH1 were used as oxidative metabolism markers and LDH5 was used as glycolytic metabolism marker. The results obtained show a difference in the expression of enzymes involved in oxidative metabolism between areas. In the primary auditory area the oxidative metabolism markers were maximally expressed in layer IV. In contrast, higher order areas showed maximal staining in supragranular layers. The expression of LDH5 varied in patches, but did not differ between the different hierarchical auditory areas. The distribution of the two LDH enzymes isoforms also provides information about cellular aspects of metabolic organization, since neurons expressed the LDH1 isoform whereas astrocytes express primarily LDH5, but some astrocytes also contained the LDH1 isoform. This cellular distribution pattern supports the hypothesis of the existence of an astrocyte-neuron lactate shuttle, previously suggested in rodent studies, and in particular of lactate transfer from astrocytes, which produce lactate from the glucose obtained from the circulation, to neurons that use lactate as energy substrate. In conclusion, the hypothesis of parallel and hierarchical organization of the auditory areas can be supported by CaBPs, cytochrome oxidase and LDH1 distribution. Moreover, the two LDHs cellular distribution pattern support the hypothesis of an astrocyte-neuron lactate shuttle in human cortex.

Bioclimatic constraints to Andean cat distribution: a modelling application for rare species

AimTo identify the bioclimatic niche of the endangered Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita), one of the rarest and least known felids in the world, by developing a species distribution model.LocationSouth America, High Andes and Patagonian steppe. Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina.MethodsWe used 108 Andean cat records to build the models, and 27 to test them, applying the Maxent algorithm to sets of uncorrelated bioclimatic variables from global databases, including elevation. We based our biogeographical interpretations on the examination of the predicted geographic range, the modelled response curves and latitudinal variations in climatic variables associated with the locality data.ResultsSimple bioclimatic models for Andean cats were highly predictive with only 3-4 explanatory variables. The climatic niche of the species was defined by extreme diurnal variations in temperature, cold minimum and moderate maximum temperatures, and aridity, characteristic not only of the Andean highlands but also of the Patagonian steppe. Argentina had the highest representation of suitable climates, and Chile the lowest. The most favourable conditions were centrally located and spanned across international boundaries. Discontinuities in suitable climatic conditions coincided with three biogeographical barriers associated with climatic or topographic transitions.Main conclusionsSimple bioclimatic models can produce useful predictions of suitable climatic conditions for rare species, including major biogeographical constraints. In our study case, these constraints are also known to affect the distribution of other Andean species and the genetic structure of Andean cat populations. We recommend surveys of areas with suitable climates and no Andean cat records, including the corridor connecting two core populations. The inclusion of landscape variables at finer scales, crucially the distribution of Andean cat prey, would contribute to refine our predictions for conservation applications.

Formation of the long range Dpp morphogen gradient.

The TGF-β homolog Decapentaplegic (Dpp) acts as a secreted morphogen in the Drosophila wing disc, and spreads through the target tissue in order to form a long range concentration gradient. Despite extensive studies, the mechanism by which the Dpp gradient is formed remains controversial. Two opposing mechanisms have been proposed: receptor-mediated transcytosis (RMT) and restricted extracellular diffusion (RED). In these scenarios the receptor for Dpp plays different roles. In the RMT model it is essential for endocytosis, re-secretion, and thus transport of Dpp, whereas in the RED model it merely modulates Dpp distribution by binding it at the cell surface for internalization and subsequent degradation. Here we analyzed the effect of receptor mutant clones on the Dpp profile in quantitative mathematical models representing transport by either RMT or RED. We then, using novel genetic tools, experimentally monitored the actual Dpp gradient in wing discs containing receptor gain-of-function and loss-of-function clones. Gain-of-function clones reveal that Dpp binds in vivo strongly to the type I receptor Thick veins, but not to the type II receptor Punt. Importantly, results with the loss-of-function clones then refute the RMT model for Dpp gradient formation, while supporting the RED model in which the majority of Dpp is not bound to Thick veins. Together our results show that receptor-mediated transcytosis cannot account for Dpp gradient formation, and support restricted extracellular diffusion as the main mechanism for Dpp dispersal. The properties of this mechanism, in which only a minority of Dpp is receptor-bound, may facilitate long-range distribution.

The HSR on chromosome 1 of the house mouse, Mus domesticus: distribution and frequency in Switzerland.

A total of 357 house mice (Mus domesticus) from 83 localities uniformly distributed throughout Switzerland were screened for the presence of a homogenously staining region (HSR) on chromosome 1. Altogether 47 mice from 11 localities were HSR/+ or HSR/HSR. One sample of 11 individuals all had an HSR/HSR karyotype. Almost all mice with the variant were collected from the Rhone valley (HSR frequency: 61%) and Val Bregaglia (HSR frequency: 81%). For samples from most of the area of Switzerland, the HSR was absent. There was no strong association between the geographic distribution of the HSR and the areas of occurrence of metacentrics. However, at Chiggiogna the HSR was found on Rb (1.3). Possible explanations for the HSR polymorphism are discussed.

Methods for integration site distribution analyses in animal cell genomes.

The question of where retroviral DNA becomes integrated in chromosomes is important for understanding (i) the mechanisms of viral growth, (ii) devising new anti-retroviral therapy, (iii) understanding how genomes evolve, and (iv) developing safer methods for gene therapy. With the completion of genome sequences for many organisms, it has become possible to study integration targeting by cloning and sequencing large numbers of host-virus DNA junctions, then mapping the host DNA segments back onto the genomic sequence. This allows statistical analysis of the distribution of integration sites relative to the myriad types of genomic features that are also being mapped onto the sequence scaffold. Here we present methods for recovering and analyzing integration site sequences.

Inference with the lognormal distribution

Several estimators of the expectation, median and mode of the lognormal distribution are derived. They aim to be approximately unbiased, efficient, or have a minimax property in the class of estimators we introduce. The small-sample properties of these estimators are assessed by simulations and, when possible, analytically. Some of these estimators of the expectation are far more efficient than the maximum likelihood or the minimum-variance unbiased estimator, even for substantial samplesizes.

Unfolding nature "in silico" : overcoming practical and metodological limitations of species distribution models

Abstract : The existence of a causal relationship between the spatial distribution of living organisms and their environment, in particular climate, has been long recognized and is the central principle of biogeography. In turn, this recognition has led scientists to the idea of using the climatic, topographic, edaphic and biotic characteristics of the environment to predict its potential suitability for a given species or biological community. In this thesis, my objective is to contribute to the development of methodological improvements in the field of species distribution modeling. More precisely, the objectives are to propose solutions to overcome limitations of species distribution models when applied to conservation biology issues, or when .used as an assessment tool of the potential impacts of global change. The first objective of my thesis is to contribute to evidence the potential of species distribution models for conservation-related applications. I present a methodology to generate pseudo-absences in order to overcome the frequent lack of reliable absence data. I also demonstrate, both theoretically (simulation-based) and practically (field-based), how species distribution models can be successfully used to model and sample rare species. Overall, the results of this first part of the thesis demonstrate the strong potential of species distribution models as a tool for practical applications in conservation biology. The second objective this thesis is to contribute to improve .projections of potential climate change impacts on species distributions, and in particular for mountain flora. I develop and a dynamic model, MIGCLIM, that allows the implementation of dispersal limitations into classic species distribution models and present an application of this model to two virtual species. Given that accounting for dispersal limitations requires information on seed dispersal, distances, a general methodology to classify species into broad dispersal types is also developed. Finally, the M~GCLIM model is applied to a large number of species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps. Overall, the results indicate that while dispersal limitations can have an important impact on the outcome of future projections of species distributions under climate change scenarios, estimating species threat levels (e.g. species extinction rates) for a mountainous areas of limited size (i.e. regional scale) can also be successfully achieved when considering dispersal as unlimited (i.e. ignoring dispersal limitations, which is easier from a practical point of view). Finally, I present the largest fine scale assessment of potential climate change impacts on mountain vegetation that has been carried-out to date. This assessment involves vegetation from 12 study areas distributed across all major western and central European mountain ranges. The results highlight that some mountain ranges (the Pyrenees and the Austrian Alps) are expected to be more affected by climate change than others (Norway and the Scottish Highlands). The results I obtain in this study also indicate that the threat levels projected by fine scale models are less severe than those derived from coarse scale models. This result suggests that some species could persist in small refugias that are not detected by coarse scale models. Résumé : L'existence d'une relation causale entre la répartition des espèces animales et végétales et leur environnement, en particulier le climat, a été mis en évidence depuis longtemps et est un des principes centraux en biogéographie. Ce lien a naturellement conduit à l'idée d'utiliser les caractéristiques climatiques, topographiques, édaphiques et biotiques de l'environnement afin d'en prédire la qualité pour une espèce ou une communauté. Dans ce travail de thèse, mon objectif est de contribuer au développement d'améliorations méthodologiques dans le domaine de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces dans le paysage. Plus précisément, les objectifs sont de proposer des solutions afin de surmonter certaines limitations des modèles de distribution d'espèces dans des applications pratiques de biologie de la conservation ou dans leur utilisation pour évaluer l'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur l'environnement. Le premier objectif majeur de mon travail est de contribuer à démontrer le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces pour des applications pratiques en biologie de la conservation. Je propose une méthode pour générer des pseudo-absences qui permet de surmonter le problème récurent du manque de données d'absences fiables. Je démontre aussi, de manière théorique (par simulation) et pratique (par échantillonnage de terrain), comment les modèles de distribution d'espèces peuvent être utilisés pour modéliser et améliorer l'échantillonnage des espèces rares. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces comme outils pour des applications de biologie de la conservation. Le deuxième objectif majeur de ce travail est de contribuer à améliorer les projections d'impacts potentiels des changements climatiques sur la flore, en particulier dans les zones de montagnes. Je développe un modèle dynamique de distribution appelé MigClim qui permet de tenir compte des limitations de dispersion dans les projections futures de distribution potentielle d'espèces, et teste son application sur deux espèces virtuelles. Vu que le fait de prendre en compte les limitations dues à la dispersion demande des données supplémentaires importantes (p.ex. la distance de dispersion des graines), ce travail propose aussi une méthode de classification simplifiée des espèces végétales dans de grands "types de disperseurs", ce qui permet ainsi de d'obtenir de bonnes approximations de distances de dispersions pour un grand nombre d'espèces. Finalement, j'applique aussi le modèle MIGCLIM à un grand nombre d'espèces de plantes dans une zone d'études des pré-Alpes vaudoises. Les résultats montrent que les limitations de dispersion peuvent avoir un impact considérable sur la distribution potentielle d'espèces prédites sous des scénarios de changements climatiques. Cependant, quand les modèles sont utilisés pour évaluer les taux d'extinction d'espèces dans des zones de montages de taille limitée (évaluation régionale), il est aussi possible d'obtenir de bonnes approximations en considérant la dispersion des espèces comme illimitée, ce qui est nettement plus simple d'un point dé vue pratique. Pour terminer je présente la plus grande évaluation à fine échelle d'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur la flore des montagnes conduite à ce jour. Cette évaluation englobe 12 zones d'études réparties sur toutes les chaines de montages principales d'Europe occidentale et centrale. Les résultats montrent que certaines chaines de montagnes (les Pyrénées et les Alpes Autrichiennes) sont projetées comme plus sensibles aux changements climatiques que d'autres (les Alpes Scandinaves et les Highlands d'Ecosse). Les résultats obtenus montrent aussi que les modèles à échelle fine projettent des impacts de changement climatiques (p. ex. taux d'extinction d'espèces) moins sévères que les modèles à échelle large. Cela laisse supposer que les modèles a échelle fine sont capables de modéliser des micro-niches climatiques non-détectées par les modèles à échelle large.

Adéquation et choix de modele de marche aléatoire des trajectoires des navires de peches

L'étude du mouvement des organismes est essentiel pour la compréhension du fonctionnement des écosystèmes. Dans le cas des écosystèmes marins exploités, cela amène à s'intéresser aux stratégies spatiales des pêcheurs. L'une des approches les plus utilisées pour la modélisation du mouvement des prédateurs supé- rieurs est la marche aléatoire de Lévy. Une marche aléatoire est un modèle mathématique composé par des déplacements aléatoires. Dans le cas de Lévy, les longueurs des déplacements suivent une loi stable de Lévy. Dans ce cas également, les longueurs, lorsqu'elles tendent vers l'in ni (in praxy lorsqu'elles sont grandes, grandes par rapport à la médiane ou au troisième quartile par exemple), suivent une loi puissance caractéristique du type de marche aléatoire de Lévy (Cauchy, Brownien ou strictement Lévy). Dans la pratique, outre que cette propriété est utilisée de façon réciproque sans fondement théorique, les queues de distribution, notion par ailleurs imprécise, sont modélisée par des lois puissances sans que soient discutées la sensibilité des résultats à la dé nition de la queue de distribution, et la pertinence des tests d'ajustement et des critères de choix de modèle. Dans ce travail portant sur les déplacements observés de trois bateaux de pêche à l'anchois du Pérou, plusieurs modèles de queues de distribution (log-normal, exponentiel, exponentiel tronqué, puissance et puissance tronqué) ont été comparés ainsi que deux dé nitions possible de queues de distribution (de la médiane à l'in ni ou du troisième quartile à l'in ni). Au plan des critères et tests statistiques utilisés, les lois tronquées (exponentielle et puissance) sont apparues les meilleures. Elles intègrent en outre le fait que, dans la pratique, les bateaux ne dépassent pas une certaine limite de longueur de déplacement. Le choix de modèle est apparu sensible au choix du début de la queue de distribution : pour un même bateau, le choix d'un modèle tronqué ou l'autre dépend de l'intervalle des valeurs de la variable sur lequel le modèle est ajusté. Pour nir, nous discutons les implications en écologie des résultats de ce travail.

Construcció d'un refugi situat al terme municipal de Vallfogona de Ripollès, pensat com a final d'etapa per a rutes a cavall

Els negocis relacionats amb les activitats de lleure i els esports d’aventura actualment es troben en expansió, buscant majoritàriament el contacte amb la natura. Les rutes a cavall formen part del gran ventall d’opcions, per aquesta qüestió s’ha pensat en construir un refugi utilitzat com a final d’etapa per a rutes a cavall. En la major part del territori, la presència de població humana es manifesta en pobles, viles i ciutats, les quals disposes d’aigua sanitària, corrent elèctric i sistema de clavegueram. Per altra banda en les urbanitzacions o cases aïllades poder gaudir d’aquests serveis suposa una inversió econòmica elevada, que implica la utilització de sistemes alternatius. En el present projecte s’ha triat un emplaçament on portar a terme el final d’etapa amb una sèrie de requisits a complir : bosc a les proximitats, disposar d’un o varis accessos per a vehicles (transport del material d’intendència), tranquil•litat, bones vistes, i cobertura de telèfon mòbil. S’han acceptat les següents limitacions : no disposar de xarxa pública d’electricitat ni d’aigua. I s’han dimensionat les instal•lacions per a un màxim de dotze persones i els seus respectius cavalls. El principal objectiu del projecte és el dimensionament de les necessitats elèctriques, d’aigua i d’aiguacalenta sanitària en condicions autònomes, i utilitzant energies renovables. La valoració de les possibles solucions per condicionar les instal•lacions, i oferir una resposta eficient per la demanda. No és un objectiu específic del treball la potabilització de l’aigua ni el tractament dels residus produïts. S’han aprofitat els diferents desnivells que presenta l’emplaçament triat a l’hora de distribuir les instal•lacions, i s’ha utilitzat un antic cobert de dos pisos ja existent. Com a residència s’ha triat un model de casa prefabricada de muntanya. Com a sistema de subministrament elèctric, s’instal•laran plaques solars fotovoltaiques i un generador de corrent com a sistema auxiliar. La captació d’aigua s’efectuarà a partir d’un pou que es troba en el terreny i de la recollida d el’aigua pluvial, instal•lant dipòsits d’emmagatzemament d’aigua segons les necessitats. S’utilitzarà un equip de cloració per potabilitzar l’aigua de consum utilitzada a la residència. En la producció d’aigua calenta sanitària s’utilitzaran plaques solars tèrmiques i una caldera instantània de gas propà com a suport. Per cuinar s’ha triat una cuina de gas propà i una barbacoa que s’instal•larà a l’exterior. S’instal•larà una llar de foc amb recuperador d’aire a la residència i una fosa sèptica amb un sistema d’infiltració per poder abocar les aigües provinents de la residència. Els fems dels cavalls podran ser utilitzats com adob pel terreny.

MIGCLIM: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distribution using models based on ecological niche theory. In their basic implementation, niche-based models do not constrain predictions by dispersal limitations. Hence, most niche-based modelling studies published so far have assumed dispersal to be either unlimited or null. However, depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under- or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of "potentially suitable" and "potentially colonisable" habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed MIGCLIM, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. MIGCLIM implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, barriers to dispersal or long distance dispersal. Several simulations were run for two virtual species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps, by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the hundred-year period 2001-2100 and three different IPCC-based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Our results indicate that: (i) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using MIGCLIM can differ significantly (up to more than 95% decrease in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (ii) this divergence increases both with increasing climate warming and over longer time periods; (iii) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be nearly as large as the one related to dispersal parameters; (iv) accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections.

Time-lapse and probabilistic inversion strategies for plane-wave electromagnetic data.

L'utilisation efficace des systèmes géothermaux, la séquestration du CO2 pour limiter le changement climatique et la prévention de l'intrusion d'eau salée dans les aquifères costaux ne sont que quelques exemples qui démontrent notre besoin en technologies nouvelles pour suivre l'évolution des processus souterrains à partir de la surface. Un défi majeur est d'assurer la caractérisation et l'optimisation des performances de ces technologies à différentes échelles spatiales et temporelles. Les méthodes électromagnétiques (EM) d'ondes planes sont sensibles à la conductivité électrique du sous-sol et, par conséquent, à la conductivité électrique des fluides saturant la roche, à la présence de fractures connectées, à la température et aux matériaux géologiques. Ces méthodes sont régies par des équations valides sur de larges gammes de fréquences, permettant détudier de manières analogues des processus allant de quelques mètres sous la surface jusqu'à plusieurs kilomètres de profondeur. Néanmoins, ces méthodes sont soumises à une perte de résolution avec la profondeur à cause des propriétés diffusives du champ électromagnétique. Pour cette raison, l'estimation des modèles du sous-sol par ces méthodes doit prendre en compte des informations a priori afin de contraindre les modèles autant que possible et de permettre la quantification des incertitudes de ces modèles de façon appropriée. Dans la présente thèse, je développe des approches permettant la caractérisation statique et dynamique du sous-sol à l'aide d'ondes EM planes. Dans une première partie, je présente une approche déterministe permettant de réaliser des inversions répétées dans le temps (time-lapse) de données d'ondes EM planes en deux dimensions. Cette stratégie est basée sur l'incorporation dans l'algorithme d'informations a priori en fonction des changements du modèle de conductivité électrique attendus. Ceci est réalisé en intégrant une régularisation stochastique et des contraintes flexibles par rapport à la gamme des changements attendus en utilisant les multiplicateurs de Lagrange. J'utilise des normes différentes de la norme l2 pour contraindre la structure du modèle et obtenir des transitions abruptes entre les régions du model qui subissent des changements dans le temps et celles qui n'en subissent pas. Aussi, j'incorpore une stratégie afin d'éliminer les erreurs systématiques de données time-lapse. Ce travail a mis en évidence l'amélioration de la caractérisation des changements temporels par rapport aux approches classiques qui réalisent des inversions indépendantes à chaque pas de temps et comparent les modèles. Dans la seconde partie de cette thèse, j'adopte un formalisme bayésien et je teste la possibilité de quantifier les incertitudes sur les paramètres du modèle dans l'inversion d'ondes EM planes. Pour ce faire, je présente une stratégie d'inversion probabiliste basée sur des pixels à deux dimensions pour des inversions de données d'ondes EM planes et de tomographies de résistivité électrique (ERT) séparées et jointes. Je compare les incertitudes des paramètres du modèle en considérant différents types d'information a priori sur la structure du modèle et différentes fonctions de vraisemblance pour décrire les erreurs sur les données. Les résultats indiquent que la régularisation du modèle est nécessaire lorsqu'on a à faire à un large nombre de paramètres car cela permet d'accélérer la convergence des chaînes et d'obtenir des modèles plus réalistes. Cependent, ces contraintes mènent à des incertitudes d'estimations plus faibles, ce qui implique des distributions a posteriori qui ne contiennent pas le vrai modèledans les régions ou` la méthode présente une sensibilité limitée. Cette situation peut être améliorée en combinant des méthodes d'ondes EM planes avec d'autres méthodes complémentaires telles que l'ERT. De plus, je montre que le poids de régularisation des paramètres et l'écart-type des erreurs sur les données peuvent être retrouvés par une inversion probabiliste. Finalement, j'évalue la possibilité de caractériser une distribution tridimensionnelle d'un panache de traceur salin injecté dans le sous-sol en réalisant une inversion probabiliste time-lapse tridimensionnelle d'ondes EM planes. Etant donné que les inversions probabilistes sont très coûteuses en temps de calcul lorsque l'espace des paramètres présente une grande dimension, je propose une stratégie de réduction du modèle ou` les coefficients de décomposition des moments de Legendre du panache de traceur injecté ainsi que sa position sont estimés. Pour ce faire, un modèle de résistivité de base est nécessaire. Il peut être obtenu avant l'expérience time-lapse. Un test synthétique montre que la méthodologie marche bien quand le modèle de résistivité de base est caractérisé correctement. Cette méthodologie est aussi appliquée à un test de trac¸age par injection d'une solution saline et d'acides réalisé dans un système géothermal en Australie, puis comparée à une inversion time-lapse tridimensionnelle réalisée selon une approche déterministe. L'inversion probabiliste permet de mieux contraindre le panache du traceur salin gr^ace à la grande quantité d'informations a priori incluse dans l'algorithme. Néanmoins, les changements de conductivités nécessaires pour expliquer les changements observés dans les données sont plus grands que ce qu'expliquent notre connaissance actuelle des phénomenès physiques. Ce problème peut être lié à la qualité limitée du modèle de résistivité de base utilisé, indiquant ainsi que des efforts plus grands devront être fournis dans le futur pour obtenir des modèles de base de bonne qualité avant de réaliser des expériences dynamiques. Les études décrites dans cette thèse montrent que les méthodes d'ondes EM planes sont très utiles pour caractériser et suivre les variations temporelles du sous-sol sur de larges échelles. Les présentes approches améliorent l'évaluation des modèles obtenus, autant en termes d'incorporation d'informations a priori, qu'en termes de quantification d'incertitudes a posteriori. De plus, les stratégies développées peuvent être appliquées à d'autres méthodes géophysiques, et offrent une grande flexibilité pour l'incorporation d'informations additionnelles lorsqu'elles sont disponibles. -- The efficient use of geothermal systems, the sequestration of CO2 to mitigate climate change, and the prevention of seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers are only some examples that demonstrate the need for novel technologies to monitor subsurface processes from the surface. A main challenge is to assure optimal performance of such technologies at different temporal and spatial scales. Plane-wave electromagnetic (EM) methods are sensitive to subsurface electrical conductivity and consequently to fluid conductivity, fracture connectivity, temperature, and rock mineralogy. These methods have governing equations that are the same over a large range of frequencies, thus allowing to study in an analogous manner processes on scales ranging from few meters close to the surface down to several hundreds of kilometers depth. Unfortunately, they suffer from a significant resolution loss with depth due to the diffusive nature of the electromagnetic fields. Therefore, estimations of subsurface models that use these methods should incorporate a priori information to better constrain the models, and provide appropriate measures of model uncertainty. During my thesis, I have developed approaches to improve the static and dynamic characterization of the subsurface with plane-wave EM methods. In the first part of this thesis, I present a two-dimensional deterministic approach to perform time-lapse inversion of plane-wave EM data. The strategy is based on the incorporation of prior information into the inversion algorithm regarding the expected temporal changes in electrical conductivity. This is done by incorporating a flexible stochastic regularization and constraints regarding the expected ranges of the changes by using Lagrange multipliers. I use non-l2 norms to penalize the model update in order to obtain sharp transitions between regions that experience temporal changes and regions that do not. I also incorporate a time-lapse differencing strategy to remove systematic errors in the time-lapse inversion. This work presents improvements in the characterization of temporal changes with respect to the classical approach of performing separate inversions and computing differences between the models. In the second part of this thesis, I adopt a Bayesian framework and use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations to quantify model parameter uncertainty in plane-wave EM inversion. For this purpose, I present a two-dimensional pixel-based probabilistic inversion strategy for separate and joint inversions of plane-wave EM and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. I compare the uncertainties of the model parameters when considering different types of prior information on the model structure and different likelihood functions to describe the data errors. The results indicate that model regularization is necessary when dealing with a large number of model parameters because it helps to accelerate the convergence of the chains and leads to more realistic models. These constraints also lead to smaller uncertainty estimates, which imply posterior distributions that do not include the true underlying model in regions where the method has limited sensitivity. This situation can be improved by combining planewave EM methods with complimentary geophysical methods such as ERT. In addition, I show that an appropriate regularization weight and the standard deviation of the data errors can be retrieved by the MCMC inversion. Finally, I evaluate the possibility of characterizing the three-dimensional distribution of an injected water plume by performing three-dimensional time-lapse MCMC inversion of planewave EM data. Since MCMC inversion involves a significant computational burden in high parameter dimensions, I propose a model reduction strategy where the coefficients of a Legendre moment decomposition of the injected water plume and its location are estimated. For this purpose, a base resistivity model is needed which is obtained prior to the time-lapse experiment. A synthetic test shows that the methodology works well when the base resistivity model is correctly characterized. The methodology is also applied to an injection experiment performed in a geothermal system in Australia, and compared to a three-dimensional time-lapse inversion performed within a deterministic framework. The MCMC inversion better constrains the water plumes due to the larger amount of prior information that is included in the algorithm. The conductivity changes needed to explain the time-lapse data are much larger than what is physically possible based on present day understandings. This issue may be related to the base resistivity model used, therefore indicating that more efforts should be given to obtain high-quality base models prior to dynamic experiments. The studies described herein give clear evidence that plane-wave EM methods are useful to characterize and monitor the subsurface at a wide range of scales. The presented approaches contribute to an improved appraisal of the obtained models, both in terms of the incorporation of prior information in the algorithms and the posterior uncertainty quantification. In addition, the developed strategies can be applied to other geophysical methods, and offer great flexibility to incorporate additional information when available.

Postglacial recolonization at a snail's pace (Trochulus villosus): confronting competing refugia hypotheses using model selection.

The localization of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) refugia is crucial information to understand a species' history and predict its reaction to future climate changes. However, many phylogeographical studies often lack sampling designs intensive enough to precisely localize these refugia. The hairy land snail Trochulus villosus has a small range centred on Switzerland, which could be intensively covered by sampling 455 individuals from 52 populations. Based on mitochondrial DNA sequences (COI and 16S), we identified two divergent lineages with distinct geographical distributions. Bayesian skyline plots suggested that both lineages expanded at the end of the LGM. To find where the origin populations were located, we applied the principles of ancestral character reconstruction and identified a candidate refugium for each mtDNA lineage: the French Jura and Central Switzerland, both ice-free during the LGM. Additional refugia, however, could not be excluded, as suggested by the microsatellite analysis of a population subset. Modelling the LGM niche of T. villosus, we showed that suitable climatic conditions were expected in the inferred refugia, but potentially also in the nunataks of the alpine ice shield. In a model selection approach, we compared several alternative recolonization scenarios by estimating the Akaike information criterion for their respective maximum-likelihood migration rates. The 'two refugia' scenario received by far the best support given the distribution of genetic diversity in T. villosus populations. Provided that fine-scale sampling designs and various analytical approaches are combined, it is possible to refine our necessary understanding of species responses to environmental changes.

Study Regarding Implementation of a Uniform Statewide System to Allow for Electronic Transactions for the Registration and Titling of Motor Vehicles

LEGISLATIVE STUDY – The 83rd General Assembly of the Iowa Legislature, in Senate File 2273, directed the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) to conduct a study of how to implement a uniform statewide system to allow for electronic transactions for the registration and titling of motor vehicles. PARTICIPANTS IN STUDY – As directed by Senate File 2273, the DOT formed a working group to conduct the study that included representatives from the Consumer Protection Division of the Office of the Attorney General, the Department of Public Safety, the Department of Revenue, the Iowa State County Treasurer’s Association, the Iowa Automobile Dealers Association, and the Iowa Independent Automobile Dealers Association. CONDUCT OF THE STUDY – The working group met eight times between June 17, 2010, and October 1, 2010. The group discussed the costs and benefits of electronic titling from the perspectives of new and used motor vehicle dealers, county treasurers, the DOT, lending institutions, consumers and consumer protection, and law enforcement. Security concerns, legislative implications, and implementation timelines were also considered. In the course of the meetings the group: 1. Reviewed the specific goals of S.F. 2273, and viewed a demonstration of Iowa’s current vehicle registration and titling system so participants that were not users of the system could gain an understanding of its current functionality and capabilities. 2. Reviewed the results of a survey of county treasurers conducted by the DOT to determine the extent to which county treasurers had processing backlogs and the extent to which county treasurers limited the number of dealer registration and titling transactions that they would process in a single day and while the dealer waited. Only eight reported placing a limit on the number of dealer transactions that would be processed while the dealer waited (with the number ranging from one to four), and only 11 reported a backlog in processing registration and titling transactions as of June 11, 2010, with most backlogs being reported in the range of one to three days. 3. Conducted conference calls with representatives of the American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators (AAMVA) and representatives of three states -- Kansas, which has an electronic lien and titling (ELT) program, and Wisconsin and Florida, each of which have both an ELT program and an electronic registration and titling (ERT) program – to assess current and best practices for electronic transactions. In addition, the DOT (through AAMVA) submitted a survey to all U.S. jurisdictions to determine how, if at all, other states implemented electronic transactions for the registration and titling of motor vehicles. Twenty-eight states responded to the survey; of the 28 states that responded, only 13 allowed liens to be added or released electronically, and only five indicated allowing applications for registration and titling to be submitted electronically. DOT staff also heard a presentation from South Dakota on its ERT system at an AAMVA regional meeting. ELT information that emerged suggests a multi-vendor approach, in which vendors that meet state specifications for participation are authorized to interface with the state’s system to serve as a portal between lenders and the state system, will facilitate electronic lien releases and additions by offering lenders more choices and the opportunity to use the same vendor in multiple states. The ERT information that emerged indicates a multi-interface approach that offers an interface with existing dealer management software (DMS) systems and through a separate internet site will facilitate ERT by offering access that meets a variety of business needs and models. In both instances, information that emerged indicates that, in the long-term, adoption rates are positively affected by making participation above a certain minimum threshold mandatory. 4. To assess and compare functions or services that might be offered by or through a vendor, the group heard presentations from vendors that offer products or services that facilitate some aspect of ELT or ERT. 5. To assess the concerns, needs and interest of Iowa motor vehicle dealers, the group surveyed dealers to assess registration and titling difficulties experienced by dealers, the types of DMS systems (if any) used by dealers, and the dealers’ interest and preference in using an electronic interface to submit applications for registration and titling. Overall, 40% of the dealers that responded indicated interest and 57% indicated no interest, but interest was pronounced among new car dealers (75% were interested) and dealers with a high number of monthly transactions (85% of dealers averaging more than 50 sales per month were interested). The majority of dealers responding to the dealer survey ranked delays in processing and problems with daily limits on transaction as ―minor difficulty or ―no difficulty. RECOMMENDATIONS -- At the conclusion of the meetings, the working group discussed possible approaches for implementation of electronic transactions in Iowa and reached a consensus that a phased implementation of electronic titling that addressed first electronic lien and title transactions (ELT) and electronic fund transfers (EFT), and then electronic applications for registration and titling (ERT) is recommended. The recommendation of a phased implementation is based upon recognition that aspects of ELT and EFT are foundational to ERT, and that ELT and EFT solutions are more readily and easily attained than the ERT solution, which will take longer and be somewhat more difficult to develop and will require federal approval of an electronic odometer statement to fully implement. ELT – A multi-vendor approach is proposed for ELT. No direct costs to the state, counties, consumers, or dealers are anticipated under this approach. The vendor charges participating lenders user or transaction fees for the service, and it appears the lenders typically absorb those costs due to the savings offered by ELT. Existing staff can complete the programming necessary to interface the state system with vendors’ systems. The estimated time to implement ELT is six to nine months. Mandatory participation is not recommended initially, but should be considered after ELT has been implemented and a suitable number of vendors have enrolled to provide a fair assessment of participation rates and opportunities. EFT – A previous attempt to implement ELT and EFT was terminated due to concern that it would negatively impact county revenues by reducing interest income earned on state funds collected by the county and held until the monthly transfer to the state. To avoid that problem in this implementation, the EFT solution should remain revenue neutral to the counties, by allowing fees submitted by EFT to be immediately directed to the proper county account. Because ARTS was designed and has the capacity to accommodate EFT, a vendor is not needed to implement EFT. The estimated time to implement EFT is six to nine months. It is expected that EFT development will overlap ELT development. ERT – ERT itself must be developed in phases. It will not be possible to quickly implement a fully functioning, paperless ERT system, because federal law requires that transfer of title be accompanied by a written odometer statement unless approval for an alternate electronic statement is granted by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). It is expected that it will take as much as a year or more to obtain NHTSA approval, and that NHTSA approval will require design of a system that requires the seller to electronically confirm the seller’s identity, make the required disclosure to the buyer, and then transfer the disclosure to the buyer, who must also electronically confirm the buyer’s identity and electronically review and accept the disclosure to complete and submit the transaction. Given the time that it will take to develop and gain approval for this solution, initial ERT implementation will focus on completing and submitting applications and issuing registration applied for cards electronically, with the understanding that this process will still require submission of paper documents until an electronic odometer solution is developed. Because continued submission of paper documents undermines the efficiencies sought, ―full‖ ERT – that is, all documents necessary for registration and titling should be capable of approval and/or acceptance by all parties, and should be capable of submission without transmittal or delivery of duplicate paper documents .– should remain the ultimate goal. ERT is not recommended as a means to eliminate review and approval of registration and titling transactions by the county treasurers, or to place registration and titling approval in the hands of the dealers, as county treasurers perform an important role in deterring fraud and promoting accuracy by determining the genuineness and regularity of each application. Authorizing dealers to act as registration agents that approve registration and title applications, issue registration receipts, and maintain and deliver permanent metal license plates is not recommended. Although distribution of permanent plates by dealers is not recommended, it is recommended that dealers participating in ERT generate and print registration applied for cards electronically. Unlike the manually-issued cards currently in use, cards issued in this fashion may be queried by law enforcement and are less susceptible to misuse by customers and dealers. The estimated time to implement the electronic application and registration applied for cards is 12 to 18 months, to begin after ELT and EFT have been implemented. It is recommended that focus during this time be on facilitating transfers through motor vehicle dealers, with initial deployment focused on higher-volume dealers that use DMS systems. In the long term an internet option for access to ERT must also be developed and maintained to allow participation for lower-volume dealers that do not use a DMS system. This option will also lay the ground work for an ERT option for sales between private individuals. Mandatory participation in Iowa is not recommended initially. As with ELT, it is recommended that mandatory participation be considered after at least an initial phase of ERT has been implemented and a suitable number of dealers have enrolled to provide a fair assessment of participation rates and opportunities. The use of vendors to facilitate ERT is not initially proposed because 1) DOT IT support staff is capable of developing a system that will interact with DMS systems and will still have to develop a dealer and public interface regardless of whether a vendor acts as intermediary between the DMS systems, and 2) there is concern that the cost of the vendor-based system, which is funded by transaction-based payments from the dealer to the vendor, will be passed to the consumer in the form of additional documentation or conveyance fees. However, the DOT recommends flexibility on this point, as development and pilot of the system may indicate that a multi-vendor approach similar to that recommended for ELT may increase the adoption rate by larger dealers and may ultimately decrease the user management to be exercised by DOT staff. If vendors are used in the process, additional legislation or administrative rules may be needed to control the fees that may be passed to the consumer. No direct cost to the DOT or county treasurers is expected, as the DOT expects that it may complete necessary programming with existing staff. Use of vendors to facilitate ERT transactions by dealers using DMS systems would result in transaction fees that may ultimately be passed to consumers. LEGISLATION – As a result of the changes implemented in 2004 under Senate File 2070, the only changes to Iowa statutes proposed are to section 321.69 of the Iowa Code, ―Damage disclosure statement,and section 321.71, ―Odometer requirements.‖ In each instance, authority to execute these statements by electronic means would be clarified by authorizing language similar to that used in section 321.20, subsections ―2‖ and ―3,‖ which allows for electronic applications and directs the department to ―adopt rules on the method for providing signatures for applications made by electronic means.‖ In these sections, the authorizing language might read as follows: Notwithstanding contrary provisions of this section, the department may develop and implement a program to allow for any statement required by this section to be made electronically. The department shall adopt rules on the method for providing signatures for statements made by electronic means. Some changes to DOT administrative rules will be useful but only to enable changes to work processes that would be desirable in the long term. Examples of long term work processes that would be enabled by rule changes include allowing for signatures created through electronic means and electronic odometer certifications. The DOT rules, as currently written, do not hinder the ability to proceed with ELT, EFT, and ERT.