Determinação de cenários futuros de uso e cobertura do solo e sua influência na vulnerabilidade ambiental : o caso do município de Formosa – GO

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Tecnologia Ambiental e Recursos Hídricos, 2015.

A Fuzzy Decision Strategy for Topic Identification and Dynamic Selection of Language Models

International audience

GESTIÓN HÍDRICA LOCAL

Resumen La Evaluación Múlticriterio (EMC), integra las diferentes dimensiones de una realidad en un sólo marco de análisis, para brindar un acercamiento de la gestión del recurso hídrico en los cantones Barva, Santa Bárbara y San Rafael de Heredia, con el objetivo de generar las políticas hídricas locales adecuadas. Esta estructura metodológica presenta una gran transparencia como herramienta en la toma de decisiones, identificando claramente los diferentes actores involucrados, describiendo, al mismo tiempo los problemas de gestión del recurso hídrico en la zona; a la vez que permite delimitar los conflictos sociales y mostrar diferentes posibilidades para su solución a través de compromisos y diálogo entre las partes. De éste diálogo emergen soluciones concretas, estructuradas como políticas locales hídricas, tales como: Planes de Gestión Hídrica, Inversión Pública y Privada, Coordinación Institucional, Reforma Institucional/legal. La zona presenta una atmósfera conflictiva alrededor de la gestión del agua y por tanto en la estructuración de políticas hídricas locales. Esta conflictividad ‘sectorial’(es decir por cantón) se superpone a una extraordinaria conflictividad ‘territorial’. La escasez o competencia sobre el agua se fundamenta en unas demandas crecientes que son expresión de un proceso de desarrollo urbano y turístico acelerado y desordenado.   Abstract The Evaluation Multi-criteria analysis (EMA), integrates the different dimensions of a reality in an analysis mark, to offer an approach of the administration of the hydric resources in the Heredia´s cities of Barva, Santa Bárbara and San Rafael, with the objective of generating the local adequate hydrics policies. This methodological structure presents a great transparency like tool in the taking of decisions, identifying the different involved actors clearly, describing, at the same time, the problems of administration of the hydric resources in the area; and at the same time, it allows to define the social conflicts, as showing different possibilities for their solution through commitments and dialogue among the parts. Of this dialogue concrete solutions they emerge, structured as hydrics local policies, such as: Plans of hydric management, Public and Private Investment, Institutional Coordination, Institucional/legal reforms. The area presents a conflicting atmosphere around the administration of the water and therefore in the structuring of local hydrics policies. This conflict 'sectorial' (to say for canton) it is superimposed to an extraordinary 'territorial' conflict. The shortage or competition for water are based in some growing demands that are expression of a process of quick and disordered urban and tourist development.

Environmental quality of life index incorporationg MCA & GIS : case study Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal

The study of Quality of Life (Qol) has been conducted on various scales throughout the years with focus on assessing overall quality of living amongst citizens. The main focus in these studies have been on economic factors, with the purpose of creating a Quality of Life Index (QLI).When it comes down to narrowing the focus to the environment and factors like Urban Green Spaces (UGS) and air quality the topic gets more focused on pointing out how each alternative meets this certain criteria. With the benefits of UGS and a healthy environment in focus a new Environmental Quality of Life Index (EQLI) will be proposed by incorporating Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Working with MCA on complex environmental problems and incorporating it with GIS is a challenging but rewarding task, and has proven to be an efficient approach among environmental scientists. Background information on three MCA methods will be shown: Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Regime Analysis and PROMETHEE. A survey based on a previous study conducted on the status of UGS within European cities was sent to 18 municipalities in the study area. The survey consists of evaluating the current status of UGS as well as planning and management of UGS with in municipalities for the purpose of getting criteria material for the selected MCA method. The current situation of UGS is assessed with use of GIS software and change detection is done on a 10 year period using NDVI index for comparison purposes to one of the criteria in the MCA. To add to the criteria, interpolation of nitrogen dioxide levels was performed with ordinary kriging and the results transformed into indicator values. The final outcome is an EQLI map with indicators of environmentally attractive municipalities with ranking based on predefinedMCA criteria using PROMETHEE I pairwise comparison and PROMETHEE II complete ranking of alternatives. The proposed methodology is applied to Lisbon’s Metropolitan Area, Portugal.

Assimetrias no crescimento e no desenvolvimento económico: um diagnóstico tridimensional da região do Algarve

Dissertação de Mestrado, Gestão Empresarial, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

As sociedades de capital de risco em Portugal: Critérios adoptados no processo de tomada de decisão de investimento

Este estudo procura compreender a importância atribuída aos critérios utilizados pelas SCR portuguesas, na seleção e avaliação de projetos do tipo early-stage. Os dados utilizados foram recolhidos com recurso a questionário aplicado a 22 SCR portuguesas. Foram utilizadas técnicas de estatística descritiva, testes não paramétricos e análise de clusters. Concluiu-se que a personalidade e experiência do empreendedor e equipa de gestão são os critérios mais valorizados. As SCR com capital maioritariamente privado consideram mais importante o grupo de critérios relativo à personalidade do empreendedor e equipa de gestão do que as de capital maioritariamente público; e, as SCR que ainda não se internacionalizaram, consideram mais importantes o grupo de critérios relativos à personalidade do empreendedor e equipa de gestão e o grupo de critérios relativo aos aspetos financeiros, do que as SCR que se internacionalizaram. Na análise de clusters identificaram-se três grupos de SCR: Criadores de riqueza de forma sustentada; Monopolistas Impacientes; e, Ciumento. ABSTRACT: This study seeks to understand the relevance of the criteria used by the Portuguese VCs to select and assess early stage type projects. The data used for the study was collected through a questionnaire answered by 22 Portuguese VCs. We employed descriptive statistic techniques, non-parametric tests and cluster analysis. The conclusion of the study was that the personality and experience of an entrepreneur and of the management team are the most valued criteria. VCs with a majority of private share capital found the group of criteria related to the personality of the entrepreneur and of the management team to be more important than the companies with a majority of public share capital; additionally, the VCs that have not yet expanded internationally, consider the personality of the entrepreneur and management team and the group of criteria associated to financial aspects, to be more important than the VCs that have already expanded abroad. Throughout the study of the clusters we were able to identify three VCs groups: Creators of sustained wealth; Impatient Monopolists and Jealous.

Metodologia multicritério para avaliar as condições de operação do transporte de carga por cabotagem no Brasil, sob a ótica dos armadores

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental, 2016.

Development and testing of a Fourier trasform based experimental system for Dynamic Mechanical Thermal Analysis tests

Altough nowadays DMTA is one of the most used techniques to characterize polymers thermo-mechanical behaviour, it is only effective for small amplitude oscillatory tests and limited to a single frequency analysis (linear regime). In this thesis work a Fourier transform based experimental system has proven to give hint on structural and chemical changes in specimens during large amplitude oscillatory tests exploiting multi frequency spectral analysis turning out in a more sensitive tool than classical linear approach. The test campaign has been focused on three test typologies: Strain sweep tests, Damage investigation and temperature sweep tests.

A Retrospective-Longitudinal Examination of the Relationship between Apportionment of Seat Time in Community-College Algebra Courses and Student Academic Performance

During the past decade, there has been a dramatic increase by postsecondary institutions in providing academic programs and course offerings in a multitude of formats and venues (Biemiller, 2009; Kucsera & Zimmaro, 2010; Lang, 2009; Mangan, 2008). Strategies pertaining to reapportionment of course-delivery seat time have been a major facet of these institutional initiatives; most notably, within many open-door 2-year colleges. Often, these enrollment-management decisions are driven by the desire to increase market-share, optimize the usage of finite facility capacity, and contain costs, especially during these economically turbulent times. So, while enrollments have surged to the point where nearly one in three 18-to-24 year-old U.S. undergraduates are community college students (Pew Research Center, 2009), graduation rates, on average, still remain distressingly low (Complete College America, 2011). Among the learning-theory constructs related to seat-time reapportionment efforts is the cognitive phenomenon commonly referred to as the spacing effect, the degree to which learning is enhanced by a series of shorter, separated sessions as opposed to fewer, more massed episodes. This ex post facto study explored whether seat time in a postsecondary developmental-level algebra course is significantly related to: course success; course-enrollment persistence; and, longitudinally, the time to successfully complete a general-education-level mathematics course. Hierarchical logistic regression and discrete-time survival analysis were used to perform a multi-level, multivariable analysis of a student cohort (N = 3,284) enrolled at a large, multi-campus, urban community college. The subjects were retrospectively tracked over a 2-year longitudinal period. The study found that students in long seat-time classes tended to withdraw earlier and more often than did their peers in short seat-time classes (p < .05). Additionally, a model comprised of nine statistically significant covariates (all with p-values less than .01) was constructed. However, no longitudinal seat-time group differences were detected nor was there sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that seat time was predictive of developmental-level course success. A principal aim of this study was to demonstrate—to educational leaders, researchers, and institutional-research/business-intelligence professionals—the advantages and computational practicability of survival analysis, an underused but more powerful way to investigate changes in students over time.

SISTEMA DE INFORMACIÓN GEOGRÁFICA PARA LA GESTIÓN DE RECURSOS HÍDRICOS

Este artículo describe la puesta en funcionamiento de una herramienta de información geográfica para la gestión y planificación de recursos hídricos de Cataluña desarrollada mediante plataformas OpenSource. Esta herramienta ha de permitir responder a sucesos extremos como la sequía, facilitando de manera intuitiva y rápida elementos de  evaluación y toma de decisiones. Este Sistema de Información Geográfica (SIG) de gestión de los recursos hídricos se ha  desarrollado para obtener resultados a medida del cliente. Su interfaz ágil y sencilla, su capacidad multiusuario, su alto  rendimiento y escalabilidad y la ausencia de costes de licencia hacen que, con una inversión limitada, se obtenga una amortización muy rápida. Cabe destacar la automatización de procesos sistemáticos, geoprocesos y análisis multicriterio definidos por el cliente, que le permiten ahorrar tiempo y recursos, así como aumentar la productividad.Palabras clave: Sistema de Información Geográfica (SIG), acceso abierto, gestión, agua, automatizaciónAbstractThis article describes the implementation of a geographical information tool developed on an OpenSource platform for the management and planning of water resources in Catalonia. This Geographic Information System (GIS) is designed to deliver fast and intuitive evaluation and decision making criteria in response to extreme events, such as drought. Its strong customization, user friendliness, multiuser capability, performance and scalability, together with its license-free condition, allow for an extremely fast return on investment. The embedded automation of user-defined systemic processes, geo-processes and multi-criteria analyses provide significant time and resource savings and productivity Key Words: Geographic Information System (GIS), Open Source, water supply management, automation

ESTUDIO PILOTO SOBRE LA EVALUACIÓN CUALITATIVA DE LOS PROBLEMAS Y PROPUESTAS DE SOLUCIÓN PARA EL USO DEL RECURSO HÍDRICO EN LA SUBCUENCA DEL RÍO VIRILLA

La experiencia en la gestión de cuencas, en particular en su aspecto hídrico-social, indica que el problema surge por causalidad recíproca de distintos factores biológicos y socioeconómicos, ligados a una gestión del desarrollo, que por lo común, no atiende los riesgos que crea. La gestión efectiva de los recursos hídricos y bióticos involucrados suele ignorar el conflicto que. en términos sociales, traen consigo los usos no sustentables. Por tanto, una gestión alternativa exige un enfoque integral, que busque relacionar valores sociales (no  únicamente económicos) con criterios ecológicos y con otros parámetros diversos.La integral idad de la gestión de cuencas depende de que las decisiones estén sujetas tanto a sistemas de planificación territorial, con la perspectiva abierta sobre los ecosistemas boscosos (protección de cuencas, control de erosión, ciclo del carbono, recreación, etc.) como a sistemas interdependientes de preferencias o toma de decisiones sociales.Lo anterior no se puede evaluar eficientemente con las técnicas convencionales de valoración, ni con las herramientas de la economía ambiental y de recursos naturales para países en desarrollo. Si bien esas técnicas son útiles en la administración de algunos recursos estratégicos. no son suficientes cuando se trata de valorar ambientes donde se debe enfrentar limitaciones en términos de indeterminación, incertidumbre, indivisibilidad, racionalidades sujetas a decisiones colectivas e individuales o a cuestiones de distribución socioecológica.El diseño metodológico aquí presentado ha permitido identificar los diferentes actores involucrados, describiendo, al mismo tiempo, los problemas de gestión que enfrentan y ha pennitido delimitar los conflictos sociales y mostrar diferentes posibilidades para su solución por medio de compromisos, cooperación y diálogo entre las panes, dando oportunidad que emergieran soluciones para el manejo integral de la subcuenca del no Viruta.Abstract:The experience in the administration of basins, in particular in their social-hydric aspect, it indicates that thc problem anses for reciprocal causation of different biological and socioeconomic factors, bound toan administration of dic development thai in general doesn’t assist dic risks thai shelhe believes. The effectivc administration of the hydrics resources and involved biotic usually ignore dic conflict that, in social terms. she/he brings 1 gel the non sustainablc uses. Therefore. an alternative administration demands an integral focus thai looks for to relate social values (nol only economic) to ecological approaches and other diverse parameters.The composedly of dic basin administration depends thai the decisions are subject to systems of territorial planning. with dic open perspective on the wooded ecosystems (basin protection, erosion control. cycle of the carbon. recreation, etc.) as much as Lo intcrdcpendeni systems of preferences or taking of social decisions.The above-mentioned you can nol evaluate efficiendy with the conventional techniques of valuacion, neithcr with the tools of the environmental economy and of natural resources for countries in development. Although those techniques are useful in ihe administration of sorne strategic resources. they are fol enough when it is to value atmospheres where it should be faced limitations in indetermination terms. uncertainty, indivisibility, rationalities subject to collecuve and individual decisions. or to questions of partner-ecological distribution.The mcthodological design here prescnted it has allowcd lo ideniify. the different involved actors, describing, al the same time, dic administration problems that face and it has allowed to define the social contlicts and to show different possibilities for dic their solution through comrnitments, cooperation and dialogue arnong dic paris. giving opportunity thai solutions emerged for the integral handling of the Vinila river basin.

The Basic Reproduction Number Obtained From Jacobian And Next Generation Matrices - A Case Study Of Dengue Transmission Modelling.

The basic reproduction number is a key parameter in mathematical modelling of transmissible diseases. From the stability analysis of the disease free equilibrium, by applying Routh-Hurwitz criteria, a threshold is obtained, which is called the basic reproduction number. However, the application of spectral radius theory on the next generation matrix provides a different expression for the basic reproduction number, that is, the square root of the previously found formula. If the spectral radius of the next generation matrix is defined as the geometric mean of partial reproduction numbers, however the product of these partial numbers is the basic reproduction number, then both methods provide the same expression. In order to show this statement, dengue transmission modelling incorporating or not the transovarian transmission is considered as a case study. Also tuberculosis transmission and sexually transmitted infection modellings are taken as further examples.

Exploiting Pulsed Flows for Heating Improvement: Application to Determination of Total Reducing Sugars in Molasses and Sugar-Cane Juices

Laminar and pulsed flows typical of multi-commuted and multi-pumping flow systems, were evaluated in relation to analytical procedures carried out at high temperatures. As application, the spectrophotometric determination of total reducing sugars (TRS, hydrolyzed sucrose plus reducing sugars) in sugar-cane juice and molasses was selected. The method involves in-line hydrolysis of sucrose and alkaline degradation of the reducing sugars at about 98 degrees C. Better results were obtained with pulsed flows, due to the efficient radial mass transport inherent to the multi-pumping flow system. The proposed system presents favorable characteristics of ruggedness, analytical precision (r.s.d. < 0.013 for typical samples), stability (no measurable baseline drift during 4-h working periods), linearity of the analytical curve (r > 0.992, n = 5, 0.05-0.50% w/v TRS) and sampling rate (65 h(-1)). Results are in agreement with ion chromatography.

GIS applied to geotechnical and environmental risk management in a Brazilian oil pipeline

The paper presents the development of a decision support system for the management of geotechnical and environmental risks in oil pipelines using a geographical information system. The system covers a 48.5 km long section of the So Paulo to Brasilia (OSBRA) oil pipeline, which crosses three municipalities in the northeast region of the So Paulo state (Brazil) and represents an area of 205.8 km(2). The spatial database was created using geo-processing procedures, surface and intrusive investigations and geotechnical reports. The risk assessment was based mainly on qualitative models (relative numeric weights and multicriteria decision analysis) and considered pluvial erosion, slope movements, soil corrosion and third party activities. The maps were produced at a scale of 1:10,000.

Distortion product otoacoustic emissions in children at school entry: A comparison with pure tone screening and tympanometry results

This study examined the test performance of distortion product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs) when used as a screening tool in the school setting. A total of 1003 children (mean age 6.2 years, SD = 0.4) were tested with pure-tone screening, tympanometry, and DPOAE assessment. Optimal DPOAE test performance was determined in comparison with pure-tone screening results using clinical decision analysis. The results showed hit rates of 0.86, 0.89, and 0.90, and false alarm rates of 0.52, 0.19, and 0.22 for criterion signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) values of 4, 5, and 11 dB at 1.1, 1.9, and 3.8 kHz respectively. DPOAE test performance was compromised at 1.1 kHz. In view of the different test performance characteristics across the frequencies, the use of a fixed SNR as a pass criterion for all frequencies in DPOAE assessments is not recommended. When compared to pure tone plus tympanometry results, the DPOAEs showed deterioration in test performance, suggesting that the use of DPOAEs alone might miss children with subtle middle ear dysfunction. However, when the results of a test protocol, which incorporates both DPOAEs and tympanometry, were used in comparison with the gold standard of pure-tone screening plus tympanometry, test performance was enhanced. In view of its high performance, the use of a protocol that includes both DPOAEs and tympanometry holds promise as a useful tool in the hearing screening of schoolchildren, including difficult-to-test children.