Rank-based regression for analysis of repeated measures

We consider rank-based regression models for repeated measures. To account for possible withinsubject correlations, we decompose the total ranks into between- and within-subject ranks and obtain two different estimators based on between- and within-subject ranks. A simple perturbation method is then introduced to generate bootstrap replicates of the estimating functions and the parameter estimates. This provides a convenient way for combining the corresponding two types of estimating function for more efficient estimation.

Unbiased estimating equations from working correlation models for irregularly timed repeated measures

The method of generalized estimating equation-, (GEEs) has been criticized recently for a failure to protect against misspecification of working correlation models, which in some cases leads to loss of efficiency or infeasibility of solutions. However, the feasibility and efficiency of GEE methods can be enhanced considerably by using flexible families of working correlation models. We propose two ways of constructing unbiased estimating equations from general correlation models for irregularly timed repeated measures to supplement and enhance GEE. The supplementary estimating equations are obtained by differentiation of the Cholesky decomposition of the working correlation, or as score equations for decoupled Gaussian pseudolikelihood. The estimating equations are solved with computational effort equivalent to that required for a first-order GEE. Full details and analytic expressions are developed for a generalized Markovian model that was evaluated through simulation. Large-sample ".sandwich" standard errors for working correlation parameter estimates are derived and shown to have good performance. The proposed estimating functions are further illustrated in an analysis of repeated measures of pulmonary function in children.

Mitigating undesirable impacts in the marine environment: A review of market-based management measures

Internationally, marine biodiversity conservation objectives are having an increasing influence on the management of commercial fisheries. While this is largely being implemented through Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) other management measures, such as market based instruments (MBIs), have proved to be effective at managing target species catch in fisheries and reducing environmental impacts in industries such as mining and tourism. Market-based management measures aim to mitigate the impacts of activities by better aligning the incentives their participants face with the objectives of management, changing their behavior as a consequence. In this paper, we review the potential of MBIs as management tools to mitigate undesirable environmental impacts associated with commercial fishing. Where they exist, examples of previous applications are described and the factors that influence their applicability and effectiveness are discussed. Several fishing methods and impacts are considered and suggest that whilst no single approach is most appropriate in all circumstances either replacing or complementing existing management arrangements with MBIs has the potential to improve environmental performance. This has a number of implications. From the environmental perspective they should enable levels of undesirable impacts such as damage to sensitive habitat or the bycatch of protected species of turtles, marine mammals, and seabirds to be reduced. The increased flexibility MBIs allow industry when developing solutions also has the potential to reduce costs to both the industry and managers, improving the cost-effectiveness of regulation as a result. Further, in the increasingly relevant case of MPAs the need for publicly funded compensation, often paid to industry when vessels are excluded from grounds, may also be significantly reduced if improved environmental performance makes it possible for some industry members to continue operating.

Chlorophyll fluorescence measures of seagrasses Halophila ovalis and Zostera capricorni reveal differences in response to experimental shading

In coastal waters and estuaries, seagrass meadows are often subject to light deprivation over short time scales (days to weeks) in response to increased turbidity from anthropogenic disturbances. Seagrasses may exhibit negative physiological responses to light deprivation and suffer stress, or tolerate such stresses through photo-adaptation of physiological processes allowing more efficient use of low light. Pulse Amplitude Modulated (PAM) fluorometery has been used to rapidly assess changes in photosynthetic responses along in situ gradients in light. In this study, however, light is experimentally manipulated in the field to examine the photosynthesis of Halophila ovalis and Zostera capricorni. We aimed to evaluate the tolerance of these seagrasses to short-term light reductions. The seagrasses were subject to four light treatments, 0, 5, 60, and 90% shading, for a period of 14 days. In both species, as shading increased the photosynthetic variables significantly (P < 0.05) decreased by up to 40% for maximum electron transport rates (ETRmax) and 70% for saturating irradiances (Ek). Photosynthetic efficiencies (a) and effective quantum yields (ΔF/Fm′ ) increased significantly (P < 0.05), in both species, for 90% shaded plants compared with 0% shaded plants. H. ovalis was more sensitive to 90% shading than Z. capricorni, showing greater reductions in ETR max, indicative of a reduced photosynthetic capacity. An increase in Ek, Fm′ and ΔF/Fm′ for H. ovalis and Z. capricorni under 90% shading suggested an increase in photochemical efficiency and a more efficient use of low-photon flux, consistent with photo-acclimation to shading. Similar responses were found along a depth gradient from 0 to10 m, where depth related changes in ETRmax and Ek in H. ovalis implied a strong difference of irradiance history between depths of 0 and 5-10 m. The results suggest that H. ovalis is more vulnerable to light deprivation than Z. capricorni and that H. ovalis, at depths of 5-10 m, would be more vulnerable to light deprivation than intertidal populations. Both species showed a strong degree of photo-adaptation to light manipulation that may enable them to tolerate and adapt to short-term reductions in light. These consistent responses to changes in light suggest that photosynthetic variables can be used to rapidly assess the status of seagrasses when subjected to sudden and prolonged periods of reduced light

Assessment of transit quality of service with occupancy load factor and passenger travel time measures

This paper investigates quality of service (QoS) and resource productivity implications of transit route passenger loading and travel time. It highlights the value of occupancy load factor as a direct passenger comfort QoS measure. Automatic Fare Collection data for a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia, is used to investigate time series correlation between occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time. Correlation is strong across the entire span of service in both directions. Passengers tend to be making longer, peak direction commuter trips under significantly less comfortable conditions than off-peak. The Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual uses segment based load factor as a measure of onboard loading comfort QoS. This paper provides additional insight into QoS by relating the two route based dimensions of occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time together in a two dimensional format, both from the passenger’s and operator’s perspectives. Future research will apply Value of Time to QoS measurement, reflecting perceived passenger comfort through crowding and average time spent onboard. This would also assist in transit service quality econometric modeling. The methodology can be readily applied in a practical setting where AFC data for fixed scheduled routes is available. The study outcomes also provide valuable research and development directions.

Evaluation of the most effective measures of infectivity of a precocious line of Eimeria acervulina in poultry

Coccidiosis is an economically important parasitic disease of chickens that, in Australia, is caused by seven species of the genus Eimeria.1 The disease has traditionally been controlled by prophylactic drugs, but vaccination with attenuated lines of the parasites2–4 is rapidly gaining acceptance world wide. Live Eimeria vaccines are produced in batches which are not frozen and have a limited shelf life. The per cent infectivity of vaccine seed stocks and the vaccines produced from them must therefore be accurately monitored using standardised dose dependant assays to ensure that shelf life, quality control and vaccine release specifications are met. Infectivity for the chicken host cannot readily be determined by microscopic observation of oocysts or sporocyst hatching.5 Dose dependent parameters such as body weight gain, feed conversion ratio, visual lesion scores, mortality, oocysts production, clinical symptoms and microscopic lesion counts could be used as measures of infectivity.6–11 These parameters show significant dose dependant effects with field strains, but lines of vaccine parasites that have been selected for precocious development with associated reduced virulence and reproductive capability may not have the same effect.3,4 The aim of this trial was to determine which parameters provide the most effective measures of infective dose in birds inoculated with a precocious vaccine strain.

Do elasmobranch reactions to magnetic fields in water show promise for bycatch mitigation?

Elasmobranchs are under increasing pressure from targeted fisheries worldwide, but unregulated bycatch is perhaps their greatest threat. This study tested five elasmobranch bycatch species (Sphyrna lewini, Carcharhinus tilstoni, Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos, Rhizoprionodon acutus, Glyphis glyphis) and one targeted teleost species (Lates calcarifer) to determine whether magnetic fields caused a reaction response and/or change in spatial use of an experimental arena. All elasmobranch species reacted to magnets at distances between 0.26 and 0.58 m at magnetic strengths between 25 and 234 gauss and avoided the area around the magnets. Contrastingly, the teleosts showed no reaction response and congregated around the magnets. The different reactions of the teleosts and elasmobranchs are presumably driven by the presence of ampullae of Lorenzini in the elasmobranchs; different reaction distances between elasmobranch species appeared to correlate with their feeding ecology. Elasmobranchs with a higher reliance on the electroreceptive sense to locate prey reacted to the magnets at the greatest distance, except G. glyphis. Notably, this is the only elasmobranch species tested with a fresh- and saltwater phase in their ecology, which may account for the decreased magnetic sensitivity. The application of magnets worldwide to mitigate the bycatch of elasmobranchs appears promising based on these results.

Inconsistency of surrogate measures of alcohol-related accidents in South Australia

Three major changes in drink driving enforcement have occurred in South Australia since 1981. The effect of these changes on a number of surrogate measures of alcohol involvement in accidents were investigated. The surrogates included alcohol involvement of driver fatalities, and combinations of casualty, serious casualty, single vehicle and nighttime accidents. Data from previous studies were also cited. It was found that relationships between surrogate measures were inconsistent, and incompatible with assumptions about drink driving levels and related accidents. It was concluded that until these effects are understood the use of surrogate measures should be treated with caution.

Methanotrophs from natural ecosystems for ruminant methane mitigation

Enteric fermentation of methane by ruminant animals represents a major source of anthropogenic methane production. Methane produced in this manner is released to the atmosphere where it is highly efficient at absorbing thermal radiation, which consequently increases the global surface temperature. Although many different strategies to control ruminant methane emissions have been considered, few are currently considered viable. Obligate and acultative methane oxidising bacteria (MOB) and anaerobic methane oxidising archaea (ANME) play a fundamental role in the carbon cycle by metabolising methane before it is released into the atmosphere. Because of this, methanotrophic microorganisms represent a novel biological control agent in mitigating ruminant methane emissions. This project aims to characterise methanotrophic microorganisms from a range of environments, and to subsequently determine the metabolic activity of these microorganisms under in vitro rumen-like conditions.

Anthropometric measures of obesity-their association with type 2 diabetes and hypertension across ethnic groups

Clinical trials have shown that weight reduction with lifestyles can delay or prevent diabetes and reduce blood pressure. An appropriate definition of obesity using anthropometric measures is useful in predicting diabetes and hypertension at the population level. However, there is debate on which of the measures of obesity is best or most strongly associated with diabetes and hypertension and on what are the optimal cut-off values for body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in this regard. The aims of the study were 1) to compare the strength of the association for undiagnosed or newly diagnosed diabetes (or hypertension) with anthropometric measures of obesity in people of Asian origin, 2) to detect ethnic differences in the association of undiagnosed diabetes with obesity, 3) to identify ethnic- and sex-specific change point values of BMI and WC for changes in the prevalence of diabetes and 4) to evaluate the ethnic-specific WC cutoff values proposed by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) in 2005 for central obesity. The study population comprised 28 435 men and 35 198 women, ≥ 25 years of age, from 39 cohorts participating in the DECODA and DECODE studies, including 5 Asian Indian (n = 13 537), 3 Mauritian Indian (n = 4505) and Mauritian Creole (n = 1075), 8 Chinese (n =10 801), 1 Filipino (n = 3841), 7 Japanese (n = 7934), 1 Mongolian (n = 1991), and 14 European (n = 20 979) studies. The prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and central obesity was estimated, using descriptive statistics, and the differences were determined with the χ2 test. The odds ratios (ORs) or  coefficients (from the logistic model) and hazard ratios (HRs, from the Cox model to interval censored data) for BMI, WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-stature ratio (WSR) were estimated for diabetes and hypertension. The differences between BMI and WC, WHR or WSR were compared, applying paired homogeneity tests (Wald statistics with 1 df). Hierarchical three-level Bayesian change point analysis, adjusting for age, was applied to identify the most likely cut-off/change point values for BMI and WC in association with previously undiagnosed diabetes. The ORs for diabetes in men (women) with BMI, WC, WHR and WSR were 1.52 (1.59), 1.54 (1.70), 1.53 (1.50) and 1.62 (1.70), respectively and the corresponding ORs for hypertension were 1.68 (1.55), 1.66 (1.51), 1.45 (1.28) and 1.63 (1.50). For diabetes the OR for BMI did not differ from that for WC or WHR, but was lower than that for WSR (p = 0.001) in men while in women the ORs were higher for WC and WSR than for BMI (both p < 0.05). Hypertension was more strongly associated with BMI than with WHR in men (p < 0.001) and most strongly with BMI than with WHR (p < 0.001), WSR (p < 0.01) and WC (p < 0.05) in women. The HRs for incidence of diabetes and hypertension did not differ between BMI and the other three central obesity measures in Mauritian Indians and Mauritian Creoles during follow-ups of 5, 6 and 11 years. The prevalence of diabetes was highest in Asian Indians, lowest in Europeans and intermediate in others, given the same BMI or WC category. The  coefficients for diabetes in BMI (kg/m2) were (men/women): 0.34/0.28, 0.41/0.43, 0.42/0.61, 0.36/0.59 and 0.33/0.49 for Asian Indian, Chinese, Japanese, Mauritian Indian and European (overall homogeneity test: p > 0.05 in men and p < 0.001 in women). Similar results were obtained in WC (cm). Asian Indian women had lower  coefficients than women of other ethnicities. The change points for BMI were 29.5, 25.6, 24.0, 24.0 and 21.5 in men and 29.4, 25.2, 24.9, 25.3 and 22.5 (kg/m2) in women of European, Chinese, Mauritian Indian, Japanese, and Asian Indian descent. The change points for WC were 100, 85, 79 and 82 cm in men and 91, 82, 82 and 76 cm in women of European, Chinese, Mauritian Indian, and Asian Indian. The prevalence of central obesity using the 2005 IDF definition was higher in Japanese men but lower in Japanese women than in their Asian counterparts. The prevalence of central obesity was 52 times higher in Japanese men but 0.8 times lower in Japanese women compared to the National Cholesterol Education Programme definition. The findings suggest that both BMI and WC predicted diabetes and hypertension equally well in all ethnic groups. At the same BMI or WC level, the prevalence of diabetes was highest in Asian Indians, lowest in Europeans and intermediate in others. Ethnic- and sex-specific change points of BMI and WC should be considered in setting diagnostic criteria for obesity to detect undiagnosed or newly diagnosed diabetes.

Participatory adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change on mixed farms

The project uses participatory methods to engage primary producers and advisers in central Queensland, southern Queensland, and north east New South Wales on-farm trials and demonstrations to adapt mixed farming systems to changed climate conditions. The focus is adaptation to climate change but will support abatement of greenhouse gas emissions by building soil carbon, better managing soil nitrogen and soil organic carbon. Data will be collected and integrated with data from Round 1 of the Climate Change Research Program to extend industry understanding beyond a general awareness of ‘climate change’. Nitrous oxide and soil carbon data will help farmers/advisers understand the implications of climate change and develop adaptation strategies for a more sustainable, climate sensitive future.

PA0187 Enhanced On-farm Monitoring and Mitigation of Pesticide and Nutrient Transport

Enhanced On-farm Monitoring and Mitigation of Pesticide and Nutrient Transport.

Control measures for an unidentified disorder in sunflower crops in Central Queensland

Control measures for an unidentified disorder in sunflower crops in Central Queensland.

Genome-wide linkage analysis of multiple measures of neuroticism of 2 large cohorts from Australia and the Netherlands

CONTEXT People meeting diagnostic criteria for anxiety or depressive disorders tend to score high on the personality scale of neuroticism. Studying this personality dimension can give insights into the etiology of these important psychiatric disorders. OBJECTIVES To undertake a comprehensive genome-wide linkage study of neuroticism using large study samples that have been measured multiple times and to compare the results between countries for replication and across time within countries for consistency. DESIGN Genome-wide linkage scan. SETTING Twin individuals and their family members from Australia and the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS Nineteen thousand six hundred thirty-five sibling pairs completed self-report questionnaires for neuroticism up to 5 times over a period of up to 22 years. Five thousand sixty-nine sibling pairs were genotyped with microsatellite markers. METHODS Nonparametric linkage analyses were conducted in MERLIN-REGRESS for the mean neuroticism scores averaged across time. Additional analyses were conducted for the time-specific measures of neuroticism from each country to investigate consistency of linkage results. RESULTS Three chromosomal regions exceeded empirically derived thresholds for suggestive linkage using mean neuroticism scores: 10p 5 Kosambi cM (cM) (Dutch study sample), 14q 103 cM (Dutch study sample), and 18q 117 cM (combined Australian and Dutch study sample), but only 14q retained significance after correction for multiple testing. These regions all showed evidence for linkage in individual time-specific measures of neuroticism and 1 (18q) showed some evidence for replication between countries. Linkage intervals for these regions all overlap with regions identified in other studies of neuroticism or related traits and/or in studies of anxiety in mice. CONCLUSIONS Our results demonstrate the value of the availability of multiple measures over time and add to the optimism reported in recent reviews for replication of linkage regions for neuroticism. These regions are likely to harbor causal variants for neuroticism and its related psychiatric disorders and can inform prioritization of results from genome-wide association studies.

Metsän kiertoajan vaikutus hiilensidontaan ja metsänkasvatuksen kannattavuuteen

Cost-effective mitigation of climate change is essential for both climate and environmental policy. Forest rotation age is one of the silvicultural measures by which the forest carbon stocks can be influenced with in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol, Article 3.4. The purpose of this study is to evaluate how forest rotation age affects carbon sequestration and the profitability of forestry. The relation between the forest rotation period optimizing forest owners’ discounted net returns over time and rotations which are 10, 20 and 30 years longer than the optimal rotation is examined. In addition, the cost of lengthening the rotation period is studied as well as whether carbon sequestration revenues can improve the profitability of forestry. The data used in the study consist of 16 stands located in Southern Finland. The main tree species in these stands were Norway spruce and Scots pine. Forest simulation tool MOTTI was used in the analysis. The results indicate that by lengthening the rotation period forest carbon stocks increase. However, as the rotation period is lengthened by more than 10 years, as a result of the diminishing growth curve, the rate of carbon sequestration slows down. The average discounted cost of carbon sequestration varied between 2.4 – 14.1 €/tCO2. Carbon sequestration rates in spruce stands were higher and the costs lower than those obtained from pine stands. The absence of carbon trading schemes is an obstacle for the commercialization of forest carbon sinks. In the future, research should concentrate on analysing what kind of operational models of carbon trading could be feasible in Finland.