Robust accelerated failure time regression

Robust estimators for accelerated failure time models with asymmetric (or symmetric) error distribution and censored observations are proposed. It is assumed that the error model belongs to a log-location-scale family of distributions and that the mean response is the parameter of interest. Since scale is a main component of mean, scale is not treated as a nuisance parameter. A three steps procedure is proposed. In the first step, an initial high breakdown point S estimate is computed. In the second step, observations that are unlikely under the estimated model are rejected or down weighted. Finally, a weighted maximum likelihood estimate is computed. To define the estimates, functions of censored residuals are replaced by their estimated conditional expectation given that the response is larger than the observed censored value. The rejection rule in the second step is based on an adaptive cut-off that, asymptotically, does not reject any observation when the data are generat ed according to the model. Therefore, the final estimate attains full efficiency at the model, with respect to the maximum likelihood estimate, while maintaining the breakdown point of the initial estimator. Asymptotic results are provided. The new procedure is evaluated with the help of Monte Carlo simulations. Two examples with real data are discussed.

Improvement of therapeutic drug monitoring of imatinib by Bayesian prediction of trough levels. Personalized drug dosage

Aims: Plasma concentrations of imatinib differ largely between patients despite same dosage, owing to large inter-individual variability in pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters. As the drug concentration at the end of the dosage interval (Cmin) correlates with treatment response and tolerability, monitoring of Cmin is suggested for therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of imatinib. Due to logistic difficulties, random sampling during the dosage interval is however often performed in clinical practice, thus rendering the respective results not informative regarding Cmin values.Objectives: (I) To extrapolate randomly measured imatinib concentrations to more informative Cmin using classical Bayesian forecasting. (II) To extend the classical Bayesian method to account for correlation between PK parameters. (III) To evaluate the predictive performance of both methods.Methods: 31 paired blood samples (random and trough levels) were obtained from 19 cancer patients under imatinib. Two Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) methods were implemented: (A) a classical method ignoring correlation between PK parameters, and (B) an extended one accounting for correlation. Both methods were applied to estimate individual PK parameters, conditional on random observations and covariate-adjusted priors from a population PK model. The PK parameter estimates were used to calculate trough levels. Relative prediction errors (PE) were analyzed to evaluate accuracy (one-sample t-test) and to compare precision between the methods (F-test to compare variances).Results: Both Bayesian MAP methods allowed non-biased predictions of individual Cmin compared to observations: (A) - 7% mean PE (CI95% - 18 to 4 %, p = 0.15) and (B) - 4% mean PE (CI95% - 18 to 10 %, p = 0.69). Relative standard deviations of actual observations from predictions were 22% (A) and 30% (B), i.e. comparable to the intraindividual variability reported. Precision was not improved by taking into account correlation between PK parameters (p = 0.22).Conclusion: Clinical interpretation of randomly measured imatinib concentrations can be assisted by Bayesian extrapolation to maximum likelihood Cmin. Classical Bayesian estimation can be applied for TDM without the need to include correlation between PK parameters. Both methods could be adapted in the future to evaluate other individual pharmacokinetic measures correlated to clinical outcomes, such as area under the curve(AUC).

Heritability of blood pressure in the swiss population: the family-based skipogh study

Objective: Blood pressure is known to aggregate in families. Yet, heritability estimates are population-specific and no Swiss data have been published so far. Moreover, little is known on the heritability of the white-coat effect. We investigated the heritability of various blood pressure (BP) traits in a Swiss population-based sample. Methods: SKIPOGH (Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension) is a family-based multi-centre (Lausanne, Bern, Geneva) cross-sectional study that examines the role of genes in determining BP levels. Office and 24-hour ambulatory BP were measured using validated devices (A&D UM-101 and Diasys Integra). We estimated the heritability of systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP (DBP), heart rate (HR), pulse pressure (PP), proportional white-coat effect (i.e. [office BP-mean ambulatory daytime BP]/mean ambulatory daytime BP), and nocturnal BP dipping (difference between mean ambulatory daytime and night-time BP) using a maximum likelihood method implemented in the SAGE software. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and study centre. Analyses involving PP were additionally adjusted for DBP. Results: The 517 men and 579 women included in this analysis had a mean (}SD) age of 46.8 (17.8) and 47.8 (17.1) years and a mean BMI of 26.0 (4.2) and 24.2 (4.6) kg/m2, respectively. Heritability estimates (}SE) for office SBP, DBP, HR, and PP were 0.20}0.07, 0.20}0.07, 0.39}0.08, and 0.16}0.07 (all P<0.01). Heritability estimates for 24-hour ambulatory SBP, DBP, HR, and PP were, respectively, 0.39}0.07, 0.30}.08, 0.19}0.09, and 0.25}0.08 (all P<0.05). The heritability of the white-coat effect was 0.29}0.07 for SBP and 0.31}0.07 for DBP (both P<0.001). The heritability of nocturnal BP dipping was 0.15}0.08 for SBP and 0.22}0.07 for DBP (both P<0.05). Conclusions: We found that the white-coat effect is significantly heritable. Our findings show that BP traits are moderately heritable in a multi-centric study in Switzerland, in line with previous population-based studies, justifying the ongoing search for genetic determinants in this field.

Clustering of HCV coinfections on HIV phylogeny indicates domestic and sexual transmission of HCV.

BACKGROUND: HCV coinfection remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality among HIV-infected individuals and its incidence has increased dramatically in HIV-infected men who have sex with men(MSM). METHODS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study(SHCS) was studied by combining clinical data with HIV-1 pol-sequences from the SHCS Drug Resistance Database(DRDB). We inferred maximum-likelihood phylogenetic trees, determined Swiss HIV-transmission pairs as monophyletic patient pairs, and then considered the distribution of HCV on those pairs. RESULTS: Among the 9748 patients in the SHCS-DRDB with known HCV status, 2768(28%) were HCV-positive. Focusing on subtype B(7644 patients), we identified 1555 potential HIV-1 transmission pairs. There, we found that, even after controlling for transmission group, calendar year, age and sex, the odds for an HCV coinfection were increased by an odds ratio (OR) of 3.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2, 4.7) if a patient clustered with another HCV-positive case. This strong association persisted if transmission groups of intravenous drug users (IDUs), MSMs and heterosexuals (HETs) were considered separately(in all cases OR>2). Finally we found that HCV incidence was increased by a hazard ratio of 2.1 (1.1, 3.8) for individuals paired with an HCV-positive partner. CONCLUSIONS: Patients whose HIV virus is closely related to the HIV virus of HIV/HCV-coinfected patients have a higher risk for carrying or acquiring HCV themselves. This indicates the occurrence of domestic and sexual HCV transmission and allows the identification of patients with a high HCV-infection risk.

Estimating soybean crop areas using spectral-temporal surfaces derived from MODIS images in Mato Grosso, Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate the application of the spectral-temporal response surface (STRS) classification method on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, 250 m) sensor images in order to estimate soybean areas in Mato Grosso state, Brazil. The classification was carried out using the maximum likelihood algorithm (MLA) adapted to the STRS method. Thirty segments of 30x30 km were chosen along the main agricultural regions of Mato Grosso state, using data from the summer season of 2005/2006 (from October to March), and were mapped based on fieldwork data, TM/Landsat-5 and CCD/CBERS-2 images. Five thematic classes were considered: Soybean, Forest, Cerrado, Pasture and Bare Soil. The classification by the STRS method was done over an area intersected with a subset of 30x30-km segments. In regions with soybean predominance, STRS classification overestimated in 21.31% of the reference values. In regions where soybean fields were less prevalent, the classifier overestimated 132.37% in the acreage of the reference. The overall classification accuracy was 80%. MODIS sensor images and the STRS algorithm showed to be promising for the classification of soybean areas in regions with the predominance of large farms. However, the results for fragmented areas and smaller farms were less efficient, overestimating soybean areas.

Quantitative genetic analysis of methylxanthines and phenolic compounds in mate progenies

The objective of this work was to determine the contents of methylxanthines, caffeine and theobromine, and phenolic compounds, chlorogenic and caffeic acids, in 51 mate progenies (half-sib families) and estimate the heritability of genetic parameters. Mate progenies were from five Brazilian municipalities: Pinhão, Ivaí, Barão de Cotegipe, Quedas do Iguaçu, and Cascavel. The progenies were grown in the Ivaí locality. The contents of the compounds were obtained by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The estimation of genetic parameters by the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) and the prediction of genotypic values via best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) were obtained by the Selegen - REML/BLUP software. Caffeine (0.248-1.663%) and theobromine (0.106-0.807%) contents were significantly different (p<0.05) depending on the region of origin, with high individual heritability (ĥ²>0.5). The two different progeny groups determined for chlorogenic (1.365-2.281%) and caffeic (0.027-0.037%) acid contents were not significantly different (p<0.05) depending on the locality of origin. Individual heritability values were low to medium for chlorogenic (ĥ²<0.4) and caffeic acid (ĥ²<0.3). The content of the compounds and the values of genetic parameters could support breeding programs for mate.

Confirmatory factor analysis of an integrated model of psycopathology assessed with MMPI-2-RF and the MCMI-III

We presented an integrated hierarchical model of psychopathology that more accurately captures empirical patterns of comorbidity between clinical syndromes and personality disorders.In order to verify the structural validity of the model proposed, this study aimed to analyze the convergence between the Restructured Clinical (RC) scales and Personality scales (PSY-5) of the MMPI-2-RF and the Clinical Syndrome and Personality Disorder scales of the MCMI-III.The MMPI-2-RF and MCMI-III were administered to a clinical sample of 377 outpatients (167 men and 210 women).The structural hypothesiswas assessed by using a Confirmatory Factor Analytic design with four common superordinate factors. An independent-cluster-basis solution was proposed based on maximum likelihood estimation and the application of several fit indices.The fit of the proposed model can be considered as good and more so if we take into account its complexity.

Novel method to estimate the phenotypic variation explained by genome-wide association studies reveals large fraction of the missing heritability.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are conducted with the promise to discover novel genetic variants associated with diverse traits. For most traits, associated markers individually explain just a modest fraction of the phenotypic variation, but their number can well be in the hundreds. We developed a maximum likelihood method that allows us to infer the distribution of associated variants even when many of them were missed by chance. Compared to previous approaches, the novelty of our method is that it (a) does not require having an independent (unbiased) estimate of the effect sizes; (b) makes use of the complete distribution of P-values while allowing for the false discovery rate; (c) takes into account allelic heterogeneity and the SNP pruning strategy. We applied our method to the latest GWAS meta-analysis results of the GIANT consortium. It revealed that while the explained variance of genome-wide (GW) significant SNPs is around 1% for waist-hip ratio (WHR), the observed P-values provide evidence for the existence of variants explaining 10% (CI=[8.5-11.5%]) of the phenotypic variance in total. Similarly, the total explained variance likely to exist for height is estimated to be 29% (CI=[28-30%]), three times higher than what the observed GW significant SNPs give rise to. This methodology also enables us to predict the benefit of future GWA studies that aim to reveal more associated genetic markers via increased sample size.

Land use/cover classification in the Brazilian Amazon using satellite images

Land use/cover classification is one of the most important applications in remote sensing. However, mapping accurate land use/cover spatial distribution is a challenge, particularly in moist tropical regions, due to the complex biophysical environment and limitations of remote sensing data per se. This paper reviews experiments related to land use/cover classification in the Brazilian Amazon for a decade. Through comprehensive analysis of the classification results, it is concluded that spatial information inherent in remote sensing data plays an essential role in improving land use/cover classification. Incorporation of suitable textural images into multispectral bands and use of segmentation‑based method are valuable ways to improve land use/cover classification, especially for high spatial resolution images. Data fusion of multi‑resolution images within optical sensor data is vital for visual interpretation, but may not improve classification performance. In contrast, integration of optical and radar data did improve classification performance when the proper data fusion method was used. Among the classification algorithms available, the maximum likelihood classifier is still an important method for providing reasonably good accuracy, but nonparametric algorithms, such as classification tree analysis, have the potential to provide better results. However, they often require more time to achieve parametric optimization. Proper use of hierarchical‑based methods is fundamental for developing accurate land use/cover classification, mainly from historical remotely sensed data.

Evidence for adaptive radiation from a phylogenetic study of plant defenses.

One signature of adaptive radiation is a high level of trait change early during the diversification process and a plateau toward the end of the radiation. Although the study of the tempo of evolution has historically been the domain of paleontologists, recently developed phylogenetic tools allow for the rigorous examination of trait evolution in a tremendous diversity of organisms. Enemy-driven adaptive radiation was a key prediction of Ehrlich and Raven's coevolutionary hypothesis [Ehrlich PR, Raven PH (1964) Evolution 18:586-608], yet has remained largely untested. Here we examine patterns of trait evolution in 51 North American milkweed species (Asclepias), using maximum likelihood methods. We study 7 traits of the milkweeds, ranging from seed size and foliar physiological traits to defense traits (cardenolides, latex, and trichomes) previously shown to impact herbivores, including the monarch butterfly. We compare the fit of simple random-walk models of trait evolution to models that incorporate stabilizing selection (Ornstein-Ulenbeck process), as well as time-varying rates of trait evolution. Early bursts of trait evolution were implicated for 2 traits, while stabilizing selection was implicated for several others. We further modeled the relationship between trait change and species diversification while allowing rates of trait evolution to vary during the radiation. Species-rich lineages underwent a proportionately greater decline in latex and cardenolides relative to species-poor lineages, and the rate of trait change was most rapid early in the radiation. An interpretation of this result is that reduced investment in defensive traits accelerated diversification, and disproportionately so, early in the adaptive radiation of milkweeds.

Parentesco na seleção para produtividade e teores de óleo e proteína em soja via modelos mistos

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar influência da informação de parentesco na seleção de progênies de soja quanto à produtividade e aos teores de óleo e proteína, com base no uso de modelos mistos de predição dos valores genéticos. Novecentas progênies F4:6 e 200 progênies F4:7 de soja foram avaliadas nas safras 2010/2011 e 2011/2012, respectivamente. As progênies foram obtidas de cruzamentos múltiplos a partir de 57 progenitores. Os dados foram analisados por meio de modelos aleatórios (quadrados mínimos) e mistos BLUP/REML ("best linear unbiased prediction/restricted maximum likelihood"). Os maiores valores de ganhos preditos foram obtidos com o BLUP/REML. Os valores genéticos preditos com o método BLUP/REML, sem informação de parentesco, apresentaram alta correlação com aqueles obtidos com o modelo aleatório, além de detectada alta coincidência das progênies selecionadas. A inclusão da matriz de parentesco resultou na seleção de progênies diferentes e em maior acurácia na predição dos valores genéticos.

The Gaussian assumption in second-order estimation problems in digital communications

This paper deals with the goodness of the Gaussian assumption when designing second-order blind estimationmethods in the context of digital communications. The low- andhigh-signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) asymptotic performance of the maximum likelihood estimator—derived assuming Gaussiantransmitted symbols—is compared with the performance of the optimal second-order estimator, which exploits the actualdistribution of the discrete constellation. The asymptotic study concludes that the Gaussian assumption leads to the optimalsecond-order solution if the SNR is very low or if the symbols belong to a multilevel constellation such as quadrature-amplitudemodulation (QAM) or amplitude-phase-shift keying (APSK). On the other hand, the Gaussian assumption can yield importantlosses at high SNR if the transmitted symbols are drawn from a constant modulus constellation such as phase-shift keying (PSK)or continuous-phase modulations (CPM). These conclusions are illustrated for the problem of direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation of multiple digitally-modulated signals.

A performance lower bound for quadratic timing recovery accounting for the symbol transition density

The symbol transition density in a digitally modulated signal affects the performance of practical synchronization schemes designed for timing recovery. This paper focuses on the derivation of simple performance limits for the estimation of the time delay of a noisy linearly modulated signal in the presence of various degrees of symbol correlation produced by the varioustransition densities in the symbol streams. The paper develops high- and low-signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) approximations of the so-called (Gaussian) unconditional Cramér–Rao bound (UCRB),as well as general expressions that are applicable in all ranges of SNR. The derived bounds are valid only for the class of quadratic, non-data-aided (NDA) timing recovery schemes. To illustrate the validity of the derived bounds, they are compared with the actual performance achieved by some well-known quadratic NDA timing recovery schemes. The impact of the symbol transitiondensity on the classical threshold effect present in NDA timing recovery schemes is also analyzed. Previous work on performancebounds for timing recovery from various authors is generalized and unified in this contribution.

Joint array combining and MLSE for single-user receivers in multipath Gaussian multiuser channels

The well-known structure of an array combiner along with a maximum likelihood sequence estimator (MLSE) receiveris the basis for the derivation of a space-time processor presentinggood properties in terms of co-channel and intersymbol interferencerejection. The use of spatial diversity at the receiver front-endtogether with a scalar MLSE implies a joint design of the spatialcombiner and the impulse response for the sequence detector. Thisis faced using the MMSE criterion under the constraint that thedesired user signal power is not cancelled, yielding an impulse responsefor the sequence detector that is matched to the channel andcombiner response. The procedure maximizes the signal-to-noiseratio at the input of the detector and exhibits excellent performancein realistic multipath channels.

Waveform-independent frame-timing acquisition for UWB signals

In this paper, the problem of frame-level symboltiming acquisition for UWB signals is addressed. The main goalis the derivation of a frame-level timing estimator which does notrequire any prior knowledge of neither the transmitted symbolsnor the received template waveform. The independence withrespect to the received waveform is of special interest in UWBcommunication systems, where a fast and accurate estimation ofthe end-to-end channel response is a challenging and computationallydemanding task. The proposed estimator is derived under theunconditional maximum likelihood criterion, and because of thelow power of UWB signals, the low-SNR assumption is adopted. Asa result, an optimal frame-level timing estimator is derived whichoutperforms existing acquisition methods in low-SNR scenarios.