Transient simulations of the carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands: from the Last Glacial Maximum to the 21st century

The development of northern high-latitude peatlands played an important role in the carbon (C) balance of the land biosphere since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). At present, carbon storage in northern peatlands is substantial and estimated to be 500 ± 100 Pg C (1 Pg C = 1015 g C). Here, we develop and apply a peatland module embedded in a dynamic global vegetation and land surface process model (LPX-Bern 1.0). The peatland module features a dynamic nitrogen cycle, a dynamic C transfer between peatland acrotelm (upper oxic layer) and catotelm (deep anoxic layer), hydrology- and temperature-dependent respiration rates, and peatland specific plant functional types. Nitrogen limitation down-regulates average modern net primary productivity over peatlands by about half. Decadal acrotelm-to-catotelm C fluxes vary between −20 and +50 g C m−2 yr−1 over the Holocene. Key model parameters are calibrated with reconstructed peat accumulation rates from peat-core data. The model reproduces the major features of the peat core data and of the observation-based modern circumpolar soil carbon distribution. Results from a set of simulations for possible evolutions of northern peat development and areal extent show that soil C stocks in modern peatlands increased by 365–550 Pg C since the LGM, of which 175–272 Pg C accumulated between 11 and 5 kyr BP. Furthermore, our simulations suggest a persistent C sequestration rate of 35–50 Pg C per 1000 yr in present-day peatlands under current climate conditions, and that this C sink could either sustain or turn towards a source by 2100 AD depending on climate trajectories as projected for different representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways.

A hybrid method for large-scale short-term scheduling of make-and-pack production processes

Due to the ongoing trend towards increased product variety, fast-moving consumer goods such as food and beverages, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals are typically manufactured through so-called make-and-pack processes. These processes consist of a make stage, a pack stage, and intermediate storage facilities that decouple these two stages. In operations scheduling, complex technological constraints must be considered, e.g., non-identical parallel processing units, sequence-dependent changeovers, batch splitting, no-wait restrictions, material transfer times, minimum storage times, and finite storage capacity. The short-term scheduling problem is to compute a production schedule such that a given demand for products is fulfilled, all technological constraints are met, and the production makespan is minimised. A production schedule typically comprises 500–1500 operations. Due to the problem size and complexity of the technological constraints, the performance of known mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulations and heuristic approaches is often insufficient. We present a hybrid method consisting of three phases. First, the set of operations is divided into several subsets. Second, these subsets are iteratively scheduled using a generic and flexible MILP formulation. Third, a novel critical path-based improvement procedure is applied to the resulting schedule. We develop several strategies for the integration of the MILP model into this heuristic framework. Using these strategies, high-quality feasible solutions to large-scale instances can be obtained within reasonable CPU times using standard optimisation software. We have applied the proposed hybrid method to a set of industrial problem instances and found that the method outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

A comprehensive discussion of HMBC pulse sequences. III. Solving the problem of missing and weakly observed long-range correlations

The intensity of long-range correlations observed with the classical HMBC pulse sequence using static optimization of the long-range coupling delay is directly related to the size of the coupling constant and is often set as a compromise. As such, some long-range correlations might appear with a reduced intensity or might even be completely absent from the spectra. After a short introduction, this third manuscript will give a detailed review of some selected HMBC variants dedicated to improve the detection of long-range correlations, such as the ACCORD-HMBC, CIGAR-HMBC, and Broadband HMBC experiments. Practical details about the accordion optimization, which affords a substantial improvement in both the number and intensity of the long-range correlations observed, but introduces a modulation in F1, will be discussed. The incorporation of the so-called constant time variable delay in the CIGAR-HMBC experiment, which can trigger or even completely suppress 1H–1H coupling modulation inherent to the utilization of the accordion principle, will be also discussed. The broadband HMBC scheme, which consists of recording a series of HMBC spectra with different delays set as a function of the long-range heteronuclear coupling constant ranges and transverse relaxation times T2, is also examined.

Polytomies and bayesian phylogenetic inference

Bayesian phylogenetic analyses are now very popular in systematics and molecular evolution because they allow the use of much more realistic models than currently possible with maximum likelihood methods. There are, however, a growing number of examples in which large Bayesian posterior clade probabilities are associated with very short edge lengths and low values for non-Bayesian measures of support such as nonparametric bootstrapping. For the four-taxon case when the true tree is the star phylogeny, Bayesian analyses become increasingly unpredictable in their preference for one of the three possible resolved tree topologies as data set size increases. This leads to the prediction that hard (or near-hard) polytomies in nature will cause unpredictable behavior in Bayesian analyses, with arbitrary resolutions of the polytomy receiving very high posterior probabilities in some cases. We present a simple solution to this problem involving a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that allows exploration of all of tree space, including unresolved tree topologies with one or more polytomies. The reversible-jump MCMC approach allows prior distributions to place some weight on less-resolved tree topologies, which eliminates misleadingly high posteriors associated with arbitrary resolutions of hard polytomies. Fortunately, assigning some prior probability to polytomous tree topologies does not appear to come with a significant cost in terms of the ability to assess the level of support for edges that do exist in the true tree. Methods are discussed for applying arbitrary prior distributions to tree topologies of varying resolution, and an empirical example showing evidence of polytomies is analyzed and discussed.

Polytomies and bayesian phylogenetic inference

Bayesian phylogenetic analyses are now very popular in systematics and molecular evolution because they allow the use of much more realistic models than currently possible with maximum likelihood methods. There are, however, a growing number of examples in which large Bayesian posterior clade probabilities are associated with very short edge lengths and low values for non-Bayesian measures of support such as nonparametric bootstrapping. For the four-taxon case when the true tree is the star phylogeny, Bayesian analyses become increasingly unpredictable in their preference for one of the three possible resolved tree topologies as data set size increases. This leads to the prediction that hard (or near-hard) polytomies in nature will cause unpredictable behavior in Bayesian analyses, with arbitrary resolutions of the polytomy receiving very high posterior probabilities in some cases. We present a simple solution to this problem involving a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that allows exploration of all of tree space, including unresolved tree topologies with one or more polytomies. The reversible-jump MCMC approach allows prior distributions to place some weight on less-resolved tree topologies, which eliminates misleadingly high posteriors associated with arbitrary resolutions of hard polytomies. Fortunately, assigning some prior probability to polytomous tree topologies does not appear to come with a significant cost in terms of the ability to assess the level of support for edges that do exist in the true tree. Methods are discussed for applying arbitrary prior distributions to tree topologies of varying resolution, and an empirical example showing evidence of polytomies is analyzed and discussed.

Pigment data set from the SeaWiFS Bio-optical Archive and Storage System (1961-1996)

The oceans play a critical role in the Earth's climate, but unfortunately, the extent of this role is only partially understood. One major obstacle is the difficulty associated with making high-quality, globally distributed observations, a feat that is nearly impossible using only ships and other ocean-based platforms. The data collected by satellite-borne ocean color instruments, however, provide environmental scientists a synoptic look at the productivity and variability of the Earth's oceans and atmosphere, respectively, on high-resolution temporal and spatial scales. Three such instruments, the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) onboard ORBIMAGE's OrbView-2 satellite, and two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS) onboard the National Aeronautic and Space Administration's (NASA) Terra and Aqua satellites, have been in continuous operation since September 1997, February 2000, and June 2002, respectively. To facilitate the assembly of a suitably accurate data set for climate research, members of the NASA Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) Project and SeaWiFS Project Offices devote significant attention to the calibration and validation of these and other ocean color instruments. This article briefly presents results from the SIMBIOS and SeaWiFS Project Office's (SSPO) satellite ocean color validation activities and describes the SeaWiFS Bio-optical Archive and Storage System (SeaBASS), a state-of-the-art system for archiving, cataloging, and distributing the in situ data used in these activities.

Maximum and mean diameter record of Orbulina universa from DSDP Hole 47-397 of Cape Bojador, eastern North Atlantic

Measurements of the diameter of O. universa carried out on 30 specimens from 39 samples covering a sediment thickness of 78 m and going back in time to approximately 750 000 y resulted in the construction of a curve of the mean diameter and a curve of the maximum diameter. Both curves, as well as those calculated with the running-averages technique, display cyclic fluctuations with durations of the order of 100 000 y and downwards decreasing amplitudes. These curves are compared with a carbonate curve (on bulk sediment) and an isotopic curve (on benthic foraminifers) obtained from the same set of samples. Correlations are fair to good, but a timelag is noticed between the isotopic curve and the faunal (O. universa mean diameter) curve, with the isotopic signal coming first, in the middle part of the Brunhes Epoch. Biostratigraphic calibration to the paleomagnetic record is provided by four datum planes (two based on calcareous nannofossils, two on diatoms) identified in the succession. Changes recorded in test porosity seem to be less meaningful than changes in test size.

Modeling the sensitivity of precipitation oxygen isotopes to the Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions: A study using Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.0)

To understand the validity of d18O proxy records as indicators of past temperature change, a series of experiments was conducted using an atmospheric general circulation model fitted with water isotope tracers (Community Atmosphere Model version 3.0, IsoCAM). A pre-industrial simulation was performed as the control experiment, as well as a simulation with all the boundary conditions set to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) values. Results from the pre-industrial and LGM simulations were compared to experiments in which the influence of individual boundary conditions (greenhouse gases, ice sheet albedo and topography, sea surface temperature (SST), and orbital parameters) were changed each at a time to assess their individual impact. The experiments were designed in order to analyze the spatial variations of the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (d18Oprecip) in response to individual climate factors. The change in topography (due to the change in land ice cover) played a significant role in reducing the surface temperature and d18Oprecip over North America. Exposed shelf areas and the ice sheet albedo reduced the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and d18Oprecip further. A global mean cooling of 4.1 °C was simulated with combined LGM boundary conditions compared to the control simulation, which was in agreement with previous experiments using the fully coupled Community Climate System Model (CCSM3). Large reductions in d18Oprecip over the LGM ice sheets were strongly linked to the temperature decrease over them. The SST and ice sheet topography changes were responsible for most of the changes in the climate and hence the d18Oprecip distribution among the simulations.

Reference list of 120 datasets from time series station Payerne used for exploratory search

The analysis of time-dependent data is an important problem in many application domains, and interactive visualization of time-series data can help in understanding patterns in large time series data. Many effective approaches already exist for visual analysis of univariate time series supporting tasks such as assessment of data quality, detection of outliers, or identification of periodically or frequently occurring patterns. However, much fewer approaches exist which support multivariate time series. The existence of multiple values per time stamp makes the analysis task per se harder, and existing visualization techniques often do not scale well. We introduce an approach for visual analysis of large multivariate time-dependent data, based on the idea of projecting multivariate measurements to a 2D display, visualizing the time dimension by trajectories. We use visual data aggregation metaphors based on grouping of similar data elements to scale with multivariate time series. Aggregation procedures can either be based on statistical properties of the data or on data clustering routines. Appropriately defined user controls allow to navigate and explore the data and interactively steer the parameters of the data aggregation to enhance data analysis. We present an implementation of our approach and apply it on a comprehensive data set from the field of earth bservation, demonstrating the applicability and usefulness of our approach.

Dust fluxes and iron fertilization in Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum climates

Mineral dust aerosols play a major role in present and past climates. To date, we rely on climate models for estimates of dust fluxes to calculate the impact of airborne micronutrients on biogeochemical cycles. Here we provide a new global dust flux data set for Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions based on observational data. A comparison with dust flux simulations highlights regional differences between observations and models. By forcing a biogeochemical model with our new data set and using this model's results to guide a millennial-scale Earth System Model simulation, we calculate the impact of enhanced glacial oceanic iron deposition on the LGM-Holocene carbon cycle. On centennial timescales, the higher LGM dust deposition results in a weak reduction of <10?ppm in atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced efficiency of the biological pump. This is followed by a further ~10?ppm reduction over millennial timescales due to greater carbon burial and carbonate compensation.