Spatial clustering analysis of the foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Mato Grosso do Sul state, Brazil - 2005

In the southern region of Mato Grosso do Sul state, Brazil, a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic started in September 2005. A total of 33 outbreaks were detected and 33,741 FMD-susceptible animals were slaughtered and destroyed. There were no reports of FMD cases in other species than bovines. Based on the data of this epidemic, it was carried out an analysis using the K-function and it was observed spatial clustering of outbreaks within a range of 25km. This observation may be related to the dynamics of foot-and-mouth disease spread and to the measures undertaken to control the disease dissemination. The control measures were effective once the disease did not spread to farms more than 47 km apart from the initial outbreaks.

The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

A spatial approach for the epidemiology of antibiotic use and resistance in community-based studies: the emergence of urban clusters of Escherichia coli quinolone resistance in Sao Paulo, Brasil

Background: Population antimicrobial use may influence resistance emergence. Resistance is an ecological phenomenon due to potential transmissibility. We investigated spatial and temporal patterns of ciprofloxacin (CIP) population consumption related to E. coli resistance emergence and dissemination in a major Brazilian city. A total of 4,372 urinary tract infection E. coli cases, with 723 CIP resistant, were identified in 2002 from two outpatient centres. Cases were address geocoded in a digital map. Raw CIP consumption data was transformed into usage density in DDDs by CIP selling points influence zones determination. A stochastic model coupled with a Geographical Information System was applied for relating resistance and usage density and for detecting city areas of high/low resistance risk. Results: E. coli CIP resistant cluster emergence was detected and significantly related to usage density at a level of 5 to 9 CIP DDDs. There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. Conclusions: There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. The usage density of 5-9 CIP DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants within the same influence zone was the resistance triggering level. This level led to E. coli resistance clustering, proving that individual resistance emergence and dissemination was affected by antimicrobial population consumption.

Some questions about the Metropolitan Areas in Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo and Santiago regions

Among the numerous problems that are common to the Latin-American metropolises, such as the deep socio-spatial segregation, the impressive territorial fragmentation and the real estate valorisation that overvalues some territories, whilst it depreciates others, we have chosen to focus on the management of the metropolitan regions. That question clearly indicates that due to the great current changes of the economical restructuring - a process that strengthened the capitalist logic of social development - the traditional form of thinking urban planning has found its limits. Consequently, this issue of metropolitan management shows the need to look for new ways of metropolitan administration that can answer to the The main metropolitan regions of South America: Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo and Santiago form our references to characterize the recent changes from a territorial point of view on the one hand; and relative to the new determinations of the metropolis on the other hand. This leads us to discuss the challenges that metropolitan management face in a scenario of governability fragmentation.

Spatial patterns of malaria in a land reform colonization project, Juruena municipality, Mato Grosso, Brazil

Background: In Brazil, 99% of malaria cases are concentrated in the Amazon, and malaria's spatial distribution is commonly associated with socio-environmental conditions on a fine landscape scale. In this study, the spatial patterns of malaria and its determinants in a rural settlement of the Brazilian agricultural reform programme called ""Vale do Amanhecer"" in the northern Mato Grosso state were analysed. Methods: In a fine-scaled, exploratory ecological study, geocoded notification forms corresponding to malaria cases from 2005 were compared with spectral indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the third component of the Tasseled Cap Transformation (TC_3) and thematic layers, derived from the visual interpretation of multispectral TM-Landsat 5 imagery and the application of GIS distance operators. Results: Of a total of 336 malaria cases, 102 (30.36%) were caused by Plasmodium falciparum and 174 (51.79%) by Plasmodium vivax. Of all the cases, 37.6% (133 cases) were from residents of a unique road. In total, 276 cases were reported for the southern part of the settlement, where the population density is higher, with notification rates higher than 10 cases per household. The local landscape mostly consists of open areas (38.79 km(2)). Training forest occupied 27.34 km(2) and midsize vegetation 7.01 km(2). Most domiciles with more than five notified malaria cases were located near areas with high NDVI values. Most domiciles (41.78%) and malaria cases (44.94%) were concentrated in areas with intermediate values of the TC_3, a spectral index representing surface and vegetation humidity. Conclusions: Environmental factors and their alteration are associated with the occurrence and spatial distribution of malaria cases in rural settlements.

High spatial resolution spectroscopy of W51IRS 2E and IRS 2W: Two very massive young stars in early formation stages

We present K-band spectra of the near infrared counterparts to IRS 2E and IRS 2W which is associated with the ultracompact H II region W51d, both of them embedded sources in the Galactic compact H II region W51 IRS 2. The high spatial resolution observations were obtained with the laser guide star facility and Near-infrared Integral Field Spectrograph (NIFS) mounted at the Gemini-North observatory. The spectrum of the ionizing source of W51d shows the photospheric features N III ( 21155 angstrom) in emission and He II ( 21897 angstrom) in absorption which lead us to classify it as a young O3 type star. We detected CO overtone in emission at 23000 angstrom in the spectrum of IRS 2E, suggesting that it is a massive young object still surrounded by an accretion disk, probably transitioning from the hot core phase to an ultracompact H II region.

Spatial patterns in the brood combs of Nannotrigona testaceicornis (Hymenoptera: Meliponinae): male clusters

Genetic models of sex and caste determination in eusocial stingless bees suggest specific patterns of male, worker and gyne cell distribution in the brood comb. Conflict between queen and laying workers over male parentage and center-periphery gradients of conditions, such as food and temperature, could also contribute to non-random spatial configuration. We converted the positions of the hexagonal cells in a brood comb to Cartesian coordinates, labeled by sex or caste of the individuals inside. To detect and locate clustered patterns, the mapped brood combs were evaluated by indexes of dispersion (MMC, mean distance of cells of a given category from their centroid) and eccentricity (DMB, distance between this centroid and the overall brood comb centroid) that we developed. After randomizing the labels and recalculating the indexes, we calculated probabilities that the original values had been generated by chance. We created sets of binary brood combs in which males were aggregated, regularly or randomly distributed among females. These stylized maps were used to describe the power of MMC and DMB, and they were applied to evaluate the male distribution in the sampled Nannotrigona testaceicornis brood combs. MMC was very sensitive to slight deviations from a perfectly rounded clump; DMB detected any asymmetry in the location of these compact to fuzzy clusters. Six of the 82 brood combs of N. testaceicornis that we analyzed had more than nine males, distributed according to variations in spatial patterns, as indicated by the two indexes.

Gene Expression Noise in Spatial Patterning: hunchback Promoter Structure Affects Noise Amplitude and Distribution in Drosophila Segmentation

Positional information in developing embryos is specified by spatial gradients of transcriptional regulators. One of the classic systems for studying this is the activation of the hunchback (hb) gene in early fruit fly (Drosophila) segmentation by the maternally-derived gradient of the Bicoid (Bcd) protein. Gene regulation is subject to intrinsic noise which can produce variable expression. This variability must be constrained in the highly reproducible and coordinated events of development. We identify means by which noise is controlled during gene expression by characterizing the dependence of hb mRNA and protein output noise on hb promoter structure and transcriptional dynamics. We use a stochastic model of the hb promoter in which the number and strength of Bcd and Hb (self-regulatory) binding sites can be varied. Model parameters are fit to data from WT embryos, the self-regulation mutant hb(14F), and lacZ reporter constructs using different portions of the hb promoter. We have corroborated model noise predictions experimentally. The results indicate that WT (self-regulatory) Hb output noise is predominantly dependent on the transcription and translation dynamics of its own expression, rather than on Bcd fluctuations. The constructs and mutant, which lack self-regulation, indicate that the multiple Bcd binding sites in the hb promoter (and their strengths) also play a role in buffering noise. The model is robust to the variation in Bcd binding site number across a number of fly species. This study identifies particular ways in which promoter structure and regulatory dynamics reduce hb output noise. Insofar as many of these are common features of genes (e. g. multiple regulatory sites, cooperativity, self-feedback), the current results contribute to the general understanding of the reproducibility and determinacy of spatial patterning in early development.

Effect of spatial inhomogeneity on the mapping between strongly interacting fermions and weakly interacting spins

A combined analytical and numerical study is performed of the mapping between strongly interacting fermions and weakly interacting spins, in the framework of the Hubbard, t-J, and Heisenberg models. While for spatially homogeneous models in the thermodynamic limit the mapping is thoroughly understood, we here focus on aspects that become relevant in spatially inhomogeneous situations, such as the effect of boundaries, impurities, superlattices, and interfaces. We consider parameter regimes that are relevant for traditional applications of these models, such as electrons in cuprates and manganites, and for more recent applications to atoms in optical lattices. The rate of the mapping as a function of the interaction strength is determined from the Bethe-Ansatz for infinite systems and from numerical diagonalization for finite systems. We show analytically that if translational symmetry is broken through the presence of impurities, the mapping persists and is, in a certain sense, as local as possible, provided the spin-spin interaction between two sites of the Heisenberg model is calculated from the harmonic mean of the onsite Coulomb interaction on adjacent sites of the Hubbard model. Numerical calculations corroborate these findings also in interfaces and superlattices, where analytical calculations are more complicated.

Environmental and grazing influence on spatial variability of intertidal biofilm on subtropical rocky shores

Epilithic biofilm on rocky shores is regulated by physico-chemical and biological factors and is important as a source of food for benthic organisms. The influences of environmental and grazing pressure on spatial variability of biomass of biofilm were evaluated on shores on the north coast of Sao Paulo State (SE Brazil). A general trend of greater abundance of microalgae was observed lower on the shore, but neither of the environmental factors evaluated (wave exposure and shore level) showed consistent effects, and differences were found among specific shores or times (September 2007 and March 2008). The abundance of slow-moving grazers (limpets and littorinids) showed a negative correlation with chlorophyll a concentration on shores. However, experimental exclusion of these grazers failed to show consistent results at small spatial scales. Observations of divergent abundances of the isopod Ligia exotica and biomass of biofilm on isolated boulders on shores led to a short exclusion experiment, where the grazing pressure by L. exotica significantly decreased microalgal biomass. The result suggests that grazing activities of this fast-moving consumer probably mask the influence of slow-moving grazers at small spatial scales, while both have an additive effect at larger scales that masks environmental influences. This is the first evaluation of the impact of the fast-moving herbivore L. exotica on microalgal biomass on rocky shores and opens an interesting discussion about the role of these organisms in subtropical coastal environments.

Understanding the Influences of Spatial Patterns on N Availability Within the Brazilian Amazon Forest

Nitrogen variations at different spatial scales and integrated across functional groups were addressed for lowland tropical forests in the Brazilian Amazon as follows: (1) how does N availability vary across the region over different spatial scales (regional x landscape scale); ( 2) how are these variations in N availability integrated across plant functional groups ( legume 9 non-legume trees). Leaf N, P, and Ca concentrations as well the leaf N isotope ratios (delta(15)N) from a large set of legume and non-legume tree species were measured. Legumes had higher foliar N/Ca ratios than non-legumes, consistent with the high energetic costs in plant growth associated with higher foliar P/Ca ratios found in legumes than in non-legumes. At the regional level, foliar delta(15)N decreased with increasing rainfall. At the landscape level, N availability was higher in the forests on clayey soils on the plateau than in forests on sandier soils. The isotope as well as the non-isotope data relationships here documented, explain to a large extent the variation in delta(15)N signatures across gradients of rainfall and soil. Although at the regional level, the precipitation regime is a major determinant of differences in N availability, at the landscape level, under the same precipitation regime, soil type seems to be a major factor influencing the availability of N in the Brazilian Amazon forest.

Spatial variation in the strength of mutualism between a jumping spider and a terrestrial bromeliad: Evidence from the stable isotope N-15

Psecas chapoda, a neotropical jumping spider strictly associated with the terrestrial bromeliad Bromelia balansae in cerrados and semi-deciduous forests in South America, effectively contributes to plant nutrition and growth. In this study, our goal was to investigate if spider density caused spatial variations in the strength of this spider-plant mutualism. We found a positive significant relationship between spider density and delta N-15 values for bromeliad leaves in different forest fragments. Open grassland Bromeliads were associated with spiders and had higher delta N-15 values compared to forest bromeliads. Although forest bromeliads had no association with spiders their total N concentrations were higher. These results suggest that bromeliad nutrition is likely more litter-based in forests and more spider-based in open grasslands. This study is one of the few to show nutrient provisioning and conditionality in a spider-plant system. (c) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Combined heuristic with fuzzy system to transmission system expansion planning

A heuristic algorithm that employs fuzzy logic is proposed to the power system transmission expansion planning problem. The algorithm is based on the divide to conquer strategy, which is controlled by the fuzzy system. The algorithm provides high quality solutions with the use of fuzzy decision making, which is based on nondeterministic criteria to guide the search. The fuzzy system provides a self-adjusting mechanism that eliminates the manual adjustment of parameters to each system being solved. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-objective analysis of impacts of distributed generation placement on the operational characteristics of networks for distribution system planning

Recent advances in energy technology generation and new directions in electricity regulation have made distributed generation (DG) more widespread, with consequent significant impacts on the operational characteristics of distribution networks. For this reason, new methods for identifying such impacts are needed, together with research and development of new tools and resources to maintain and facilitate continued expansion towards DG. This paper presents a study aimed at determining appropriate DG sites for distribution systems. The main considerations which determine DG sites are also presented, together with an account of the advantages gained from correct DG placement. The paper intends to define some quantitative and qualitative parameters evaluated by Digsilent (R), GARP3 (R) and DSA-GD software. A multi-objective approach based on the Bellman-Zadeh algorithm and fuzzy logic is used to determine appropriate DG sites. The study also aims to find acceptable DG locations both for distribution system feeders, as well as for nodes inside a given feeder. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating an Agile Method for Planning and Controlling Innovative Projects

This article presents an extensive investigation carried out in two technology-based companies of the So Carlos technological pole in Brazil. Based on this multiple case study and literature review, a method, entitled hereafter IVPM2, applying agile project management (APM) principles was developed. After the method implementation, a qualitative evaluation was carried out by a document analysis and questionnaire application. This article shows that the application of this method at the companies under investigation evidenced the benefits of using simple, iterative, visual, and agile techniques to plan and control innovative product projects combined with traditional project management best practices, such as standardization.