Incentive-based demand response programs designed by asset-light retailers for day-ahead market

Following the deregulation experience of retail electricity markets in most countries, the majority of the new entrants of the liberalized retail market were pure REP (retail electricity providers). These entities were subject to financial risks because of the unexpected price variations, price spikes, volatile loads and the potential for market power exertion by GENCO (generation companies). A REP can manage the market risks by employing the DR (demand response) programs and using its' generation and storage assets at the distribution network to serve the customers. The proposed model suggests how a REP with light physical assets, such as DG (distributed generation) units and ESS (energy storage systems), can survive in a competitive retail market. The paper discusses the effective risk management strategies for the REPs to deal with the uncertainties of the DAM (day-ahead market) and how to hedge the financial losses in the market. A two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated. It aims to establish the financial incentive-based DR programs and the optimal dispatch of the DG units and ESSs. The uncertainty of the forecasted day-ahead load demand and electricity price is also taken into account with a scenario-based approach. The principal advantage of this model for REPs is reducing the risk of financial losses in DAMs, and the main benefit for the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand and reducing the peak demand.

Vibration control with shape-memory alloys in civil engineering structures

Dissertação apresentada à Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Engenharia Civil

The application of Basel III in Portugal: previsions based on 2012 and 2013 banking balance-sheets

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) introduced new regulations for banking supervision in December 2010, better known as Basel III recommendations that aimed at guaranteeing the solidity of banks worldwide and the mitigation of new banking crises risks. The European Union transposed these directives through the Credit Review Directives IV (CRD IV). Portugal adopted CRD IV by a new decree-law no. 157/2014, on 24 th October 2014, enforced from 24 th November 2014. While individual banks have been given the option of using the internal ratings based method, this study analyses the compliance levels of all Portuguese banking institutions using the standard method, also prescribed by BCBS. Our results show that out of thirteen banks on 31-12-2013 only five banks were in a comfortable position and the remaining eight could not reach the minimum requirements set up by BCBS for 1-1-2014.

Prevenção e mitigação do risco de incumprimento mais eficaz na banca de retalho

O âmbito deste trabalho é o da prevenção e mitigação do risco de uma carteira de crédito de um Banco de retalho, com uma quota significativa no mercado Português. A antecipação de potencial incumprimento é crítica para a atuação atempada do Banco junto dos clientes. Pretendeu-se analisar o poder preditivo de uma base de informação exógena (a Central) que inclui as responsabilidades creditícias dos clientes do Banco no Sistema Financeiro Português. As principais fases deste trabalho consistiram na análise e estruturação da informação da Central, de modo a integrá-la com a do Banco, compreensão das condicionantes desta informação, nomeadamente o desfasamento temporal, e finalmente, no desenvolvimento de um modelo de scoring, compatível com os sistemas e tecnologias do Banco, e de modo a alavancar o processo existente.

Catástrofes naturais em saúde pública : impactos e planos de emergência : caso de estudo : São Miguel-Açores

RESUMO - Nos últimos anos, as catástrofes naturais têm sido a causa frequente de problemas de Saúde Pública; além disso representam um sério obstáculo ao desenvolvimento das comunidades atingidas, na medida em que consomem ponderáveis recursos para a mitigação dos danos sofridos. Pode-se dizer que não existe nenhum país que não esteja exposto ao risco de catástrofes naturais, tais como Sismos, Tsunamis, Erupções Vulcânicas, Movimentos de Vertentes, Ciclones Tropicais, Ondas de Frio e de Calor, Secas e Inundações, e como tal, este é um problema global emergente. Como, actualmente, é impossível prever e controlar a ocorrência destes fenómenos, as acções humanas têm de ser direccionadas para a implementação de soluções que possam mitigar e/ou prevenir o seu impacto na sociedade. A integração do lugar, do espaço e do tempo na Saúde Pública, como componentes de investigação relativas aos problemas da população, são uma ferramenta metodológica importante no auxílio do planeamento, monitorização e avaliação das acções em saúde. O que está em causa neste estudo é o pensar, o preparar e o adaptar os nossos territórios e populações a cenários de crise que podem aparecer sem aviso prévio. Este trabalho é, sobretudo, uma forma de pensar e planear o futuro numa lógica de adaptação e valorização do território, construindo referenciais de suporte à acção. Assim, a finalidade deste estudo é contribuir para melhorar/aperfeiçoar a resposta perante novas situações de catástrofe natural, através da percepção e caracterização de situações anteriores de catástrofes naturais a que a Ilha de São Miguel, nos Açores, esteve sujeita nos últimos vinte e seis anos, através da construção e análise de cartas de localização de risco, caracterização da população em risco e da avaliação dos respectivos Planos de Emergência. ---------------------- ABSTRACT - In the last years, the natural disasters have been the frequent cause of Public Health problems and additionally they represent a serious obstacle to the development of the communities affected, in so far as they consume ponderable resources to the mitigation of the damages. It is possible to be said that there is not any country that is not exposed to the risk of natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, landslides, tropical cyclones, waves of heat and coldness, droughts and floods, and as such, this is an emerging global problem. As it is now impossible to predict and control the occurrence of these phenomena, human actions must be directed to implement solutions that can mitigate and / or prevent their impact on society. The integration of place, space and time on Public Health, as part of research on problems of the population, are an important methodological tool to aid planning, monitoring and evaluation of activities in health. The main issue in this study is to think, prepare and adapt our territories and populations to crisis scenarios that may occur without notice. This work is mainly a way of thinking and planning ahead in a logic of adapting and improving the area, building frameworks to support the action. Thus, the purpose of this study is to contribute to improve / optimize the answer for new natural disaster situations, through the perception and characterization of previous situations of natural catastrophes that the Island of São Miguel, in the Azores, has been subject in the last twenty six years, through the construction and analysis of risk maps, characterization of the population in risk and of the evaluation of the respective Plans of Emergence.

Gripe A (H1N1) 2009 : a transição da etapa de contenção para a de mitigação em Po

RESUMO - Os autores relatam a transição da etapa de retenção para a etapa de mitigação da Gripe A (H1N1), de acordo com a experiência portuguesa. Admitem que a curva epidémica da gripe poderia ser atrasada, mas não contida exactamente. A linha divisória entre os casos importados e os casos com origem em Portugal esteve na base da decisão de passar para a etapa de mitigação. ----------------- ---------ABSTRACT – The authors report the transition from the containment phase into the mitigation one, according to the Portuguese experience. They further admit that the epidemic flu curve could be delayed, but not exactly contained. The cross line between the imported cases and those generated in Portugal supported the decision to step forward into the mi

PV inverters for module level applications

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Energias Renováveis – Conversão Eléctrica e Utilização Sustentáveis

Efficiency of strengthening techniques assessed for existing masonry buildings

The Azores archipelago is a zone with a vast cultural heritage, presenting a building stock mainly constructed in traditional stone masonry. It is known that this type of construction exhibits poor behaviour under seismic excitations; however it is extensively used in seismic prone areas, such as this case. The 9th of July of 1998 earthquake was the last seismic event in the islands, leaving many traditional stone constructions severely damaged or totally destroyed. This scenario led to an effort by the local government of improving the seismic resistance of these constructions, with the application of several reinforcement techniques. This work aims to study some of the most used reinforcement schemes after the 1998 earthquake, and to assess their effectiveness in the mitigation of the construction’s seismic vulnerability. A brief evaluation of the cost versus benefit of these retrofitting techniques is also made, seeking to identify those that are most suitable for each building typology. Thus, it was sought to analyze the case of real structures with different geometrical and physical characteristics, by establishing a comparison between the seismic performance of reinforced and non-reinforced structures. The first section contains the analysis of a total of six reinforcement scenarios for each building chosen. Using the recorded 1998 earthquake accelerograms, a linear time-history analysis was performed for each reinforcement scenario. A comparison was then established between the maximum displacements, inter-storey drift and maximum stress obtained, in order to evaluate the global seismic response of each reinforced structure. In the second part of the work, the examination of the performance obtained in the previous section, in relation to the cost of implementing each reinforcement technique, allowed to draw conclusions concerning the viability of implementing each reinforcement method, based on the book value of the buildings in study.

Landslide susceptibility assessment in Karanganyar regency - Indonesia - Comparison of knowledge-based and Data-driven Models

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Erros pré-analíticos em anatomia patológica : prevalência, caracterização e consequências para a segurança do doente

RESUMO - A literatura disponível revela que a maioria dos erros relacionados com os exames anatomopatológicos ocorre na fase pré-analítica. Existem alguns estudos que quantificam e caracterizam estes erros mas, não foram encontrados artigos publicados sobre o tema em hospitais portugueses. Foi objetivo deste estudo determinar qual a prevalência e características dos erros pré-analíticos em amostras anatomopatológicas e as suas consequências para a segurança do doente. Analisaram-se 10574 casos de exames anatomopatológicos, de cinco hospitais da região de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo. Os serviços de anatomia patológica registaram e caracterizaram, durante vinte dias, erros detetados nas amostras anatomopatológicas com origem nos serviços requisitantes. Posteriormente os hospitais foram caracterizados quanto aos procedimentos relativos à fase pré-analítica. A prevalência de erros aferida foi de 3,1% (n=330), com um intervalo de confiança a 95% compreendido entre os valores 2,8% e 3,5%. Para além destes resultados destacam-se os seguintes pontos: i. As amostras histológicas têm 4,1% de prevalentes e as de citologia 0,9%; ii. Foram registados erros em 2,6% das requisições e em 1,5% dos contentores com as amostras; iii. A aceitação dos casos com erro é a ação mais frequente (66,9%), seguida pela devolução (24,4%) e retenção (8,7%); iv. Os hospitais com sistemas de notificação de erros e normas escritas para aceitação de amostras têm menor prevalência de erros; v. O impacte dos erros detetados na segurança dos doentes é difícil de determinar, sendo que os mais críticos relacionam-se com amostras devolvidas a fresco, meio de colheita inadequado ou com amostras danificadas. Este estudo permitiu determinar a prevalência e caracterizar os erros pré-analíticos envolvendo amostras anatomopatológicas em hospitais portugueses. Reflete a dimensão atual do problema e efetua recomendações para a sua mitigação. A prevalência de erros encontrada é inferior às publicadas em estudos semelhantes.

Resilience of logistic service providers facing a port strike: a case study

The purpose of this thesis is to study the impact of a port strike on companies that perform as logistic service providers in a supply chain (SC), here denominated 3PL (third-party logistic providers). These companies are highly dependent on ports to perform their activity, since they provide international services. Consequently, a disruption in a port can seriously impair their business. A stevedores’ strike is one of the possible disruptions that can affect ports. This study aims to analyze the negative effects caused by this disruption, and what strategies 3PLs may implement in order to keep their performance levels stable and have a quick recovery time. Within this objective, the first step will be to establish a theoretical context about the maritime port’s sector and 3PLs in a SC context, to then expand the concept of a resilient SC, and finally to develop a theoretical framework in order to better contextualize the case study. Subsequently, the impact of a port strike will be quantified by using a case study comprising three companies, covering the areas of land and sea distribution and port operations. Information from primary sources was assembled in two phases: first via e-mail and, in a second phase, through a personal interview. The information from secondary sources was obtained through television news, internet and conferences, enabling its cross-analysis. Finally, by analyzing the collected data, it will be possible to draw conclusions about the measures carried out by each company to minimize the negative effects of the strike, thus contributing to a more resilient SC. As a conclusion, a stevedores’ strike will create a snow-ball of negative effects in the SC, degrading all relevant KPIs (key performance indicators) of the 3PLs under study. No mitigation and contingency strategies available proved really effective to reduce the negative effects of a port strike disruption.

Botnet cluster identification

Botnets are a group of computers infected with a specific sub-set of a malware family and controlled by one individual, called botmaster. This kind of networks are used not only, but also for virtual extorsion, spam campaigns and identity theft. They implement different types of evasion techniques that make it harder for one to group and detect botnet traffic. This thesis introduces one methodology, called CONDENSER, that outputs clusters through a self-organizing map and that identify domain names generated by an unknown pseudo-random seed that is known by the botnet herder(s). Aditionally DNS Crawler is proposed, this system saves historic DNS data for fast-flux and double fastflux detection, and is used to identify live C&Cs IPs used by real botnets. A program, called CHEWER, was developed to automate the calculation of the SVM parameters and features that better perform against the available domain names associated with DGAs. CONDENSER and DNS Crawler were developed with scalability in mind so the detection of fast-flux and double fast-flux networks become faster. We used a SVM for the DGA classififer, selecting a total of 11 attributes and achieving a Precision of 77,9% and a F-Measure of 83,2%. The feature selection method identified the 3 most significant attributes of the total set of attributes. For clustering, a Self-Organizing Map was used on a total of 81 attributes. The conclusions of this thesis were accepted in Botconf through a submited article. Botconf is known conferênce for research, mitigation and discovery of botnets tailled for the industry, where is presented current work and research. This conference is known for having security and anti-virus companies, law enforcement agencies and researchers.

The Portuguese contemporary art as an investment

In this paper we investigate what drives the prices of Portuguese contemporary art at auction and explore the potential of art as an asset. Based on a hedonic prices model we construct an Art Price Index as a proxy for the Portuguese contemporary art market over the period of 1994 to 2014. A performance analysis suggests that art underperforms the S&P500 but overperforms the Portuguese stock market and American Government bonds. However, It does it at the cost of higher risk. Results also show that art as low correlation with financial markets, evidencing some potential in risk mitigation when added to traditional equity portfolios.

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009: epidemiological analysis of cases in a tropical/semi-arid region of Brazil

IntroductionThe year 2009 marked the beginning of a pandemic caused by a new variant of influenza A (H1N1). After spreading through North America, the pandemic influenza virus (H1N1) 2009 spread rapidly throughout the world. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of cases of pandemic influenza in a tropical/semi-arid region of Brazil.MethodsA retrospective study analyzed all suspected cases of pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 reported in the Ceará State through the National Information System for Notifiable Diseases during the pandemic period between 28 April, 2009 and November 25, 2010.ResultsA total of 616 suspected cases were notified, 58 (9.4%) in the containment phase and 558 (90.6%) in the mitigation phase. Most cases were of affected young people resident in the City of Fortaleza, the largest urban center in the State of Ceará. The most frequent symptoms presented by the cases with confirmed infection were fever, cough, myalgia, arthralgia, and nasal congestion. Mortality rate was 0.0009/1,000 inhabitants and lethality was 5.6%. Deaths were observed only in the mitigation phase. Mortality rates were similar for both sexes but were higher in the age group under 5 years.ConclusionsThe study suggests that the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in this tropical/semi-arid region had a lower magnitude when compared to states in the Southern and Southeastern regions of Brazil.

A negociação no mercado a prazo do MIBEL

This master thesis has been developed during the internship in the Supervision Department of Supervision of the Intermediation and Market Structures of CMVM. My collaboration in such department was mainly focused on the derivatives market of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL). MIBEL embodies two organized markets – the derivatives market in Portugal and the spot market in Spain The trading activity in the derivatives market of MIBEL is processed through the trading platform of the regulated market managed by OMIP, however, much of the negotiation is over-the-counter. The aim of this work is to describe the market from a legal and economic perspective and to analyse the evolution of the negotiation, namely the impact of OTC in the regulated market trading. To achieve this, I propose to analyse also MiFID and EMIR rules over derivative contracts and the role of central counterparties, as they both are important to the discussion. In parallel, we found that OTC transactions are considerably higher than those traded in the regulated market managed by OMIP, those findings can be justified by the contractual relationships based on trust already established between the partiesarties. Nevertheless, since 2011 this trend changed by an increase of the registered OTC. Thereafter, although the parties continued to trade bilaterally, these transactions were registered in a central counterparty in order to eliminate the inherent risks related to the OTC derivatives transactions. This change in the negotiation pattern may also be influenced by the mandatory reporting of transactions imposed by EMIR, that requires for some classes of derivatives the centralized clearing and for all other requires the implementation of risk mitigation techniques.