Does more detailed information mean better performance? An experiment in information explicitness

Purpose – Investors are now able to analyse more noise-free news to inform their trading decisions than ever before. Their expectation that more information means better performance is not supported by previous psychological experiments which argue that too much information actually impairs performance. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the degree of information explicitness improves stock market performance. Design/methodology/approach – An experiment is conducted in a computer laboratory to examine a trading simulation manipulated from a real market-shock. Participants’ performance efficiency and effectiveness are measured separately. Findings – The results indicate that the explicitness of information neither improves nor impairs participants’ performance effectiveness from the perspectives of returns, share and cash positions, and trading volumes. However, participants’ performance efficiency is significantly affected by information explicitness. Originality/value – The novel approach and findings of this research add to the knowledge of the impact of information explicitness on the quality of decision making in a financial market environment.

Performing knowledge requirements analysis for public organisations in a Virtual Learning Environment: a social network analysis approach

This paper describes an application of Social Network Analysis methods for identification of knowledge demands in public organisations. Affiliation networks established in a postgraduate programme were analysed. The course was executed in a distance education mode and its students worked on public agencies. Relations established among course participants were mediated through a virtual learning environment using Moodle. Data available in Moodle may be extracted using knowledge discovery in databases techniques. Potential degrees of closeness existing among different organisations and among researched subjects were assessed. This suggests how organisations could cooperate for knowledge management and also how to identify their common interests. The study points out that closeness among organisations and research topics may be assessed through affiliation networks. This opens up opportunities for applying knowledge management between organisations and creating communities of practice. Concepts of knowledge management and social network analysis provide the theoretical and methodological basis.

The impacts of learning styles, learning patterns and demographic factors on learners’ performance in a blended learning environment

Many studies have widely accepted the assumption that learning processes can be promoted when teaching styles and learning styles are well matched. In this study, the synergy between learning styles, learning patterns, and gender as a selected demographic feature and learners’ performance were quantitatively investigated in a blended learning setting. This environment adopts a traditional teaching approach of ‘one-sizefits-all’ without considering individual user’s preferences and attitudes. Hence, evidence can be provided about the value of taking such factors into account in Adaptive Educational Hypermedia Systems (AEHSs). Felder and Soloman’s Index of Learning Styles (ILS) was used to identify the learning styles of 59 undergraduate students at the University of Babylon. Five hypotheses were investigated in the experiment. Our findings show that there is no statistical significance in some of the assessed factors. However, processing dimension, the total number of hits on course website and gender indicated a statistical significance on learners’ performance. This finding needs more investigation in order to identify the effective factors on students’ achievement to be considered in Adaptive Educational Hypermedia Systems (AEHSs).

Assessing the carcinogenic potential of low-dose exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment: the challenge ahead

Lifestyle factors are responsible for a considerable portion of cancer incidence worldwide, but credible estimates from the World Health Organization and the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) suggest that the fraction of cancers attributable to toxic environmental exposures is between 7% and 19%. To explore the hypothesis that low-dose exposures to mixtures of chemicals in the environment may be combining to contribute to environmental carcinogenesis, we reviewed 11 hallmark phenotypes of cancer, multiple priority target sites for disruption in each area and prototypical chemical disruptors for all targets, this included dose-response characterizations, evidence of low-dose effects and cross-hallmark effects for all targets and chemicals. In total, 85 examples of chemicals were reviewed for actions on key pathways/mechanisms related to carcinogenesis. Only 15% (13/85) were found to have evidence of a dose-response threshold, whereas 59% (50/85) exerted low-dose effects. No dose-response information was found for the remaining 26% (22/85). Our analysis suggests that the cumulative effects of individual (non-carcinogenic) chemicals acting on different pathways, and a variety of related systems, organs, tissues and cells could plausibly conspire to produce carcinogenic synergies. Additional basic research on carcinogenesis and research focused on low-dose effects of chemical mixtures needs to be rigorously pursued before the merits of this hypothesis can be further advanced. However, the structure of the World Health Organization International Programme on Chemical Safety 'Mode of Action' framework should be revisited as it has inherent weaknesses that are not fully aligned with our current understanding of cancer biology.

Assessing how retrofit of traditional buildings impacts indoor environment and occupant’s thermal comfort

Buildings consume a large amount of energy, in both their use and production. Retrofitting aims to achieve a reduction in this energy consumption. However, there are concerns that retrofitting can cause negative impacts on the internal environment including poor thermal comfort and health issues. This research investigates the impact of retrofitting the façade of existing traditional buildings and the resulting impact on the indoor environment and occupant thermal comfort. A Case building located at the University of Reading has been monitored experimentally and modelled using IES software with monitored values as input conditions for the model. The proposed façade related retrofit options have been simulated and provide information on their effect on the indoor environment. The findings show a positive impact on the internal environment. The data shows a 16.2% improvement in thermal comfort after retrofit is simulated. This also achieved a 21.6% reduction in energy consumption from the existing building.

Reducing defects through organizational learning within a Housing Association environment

Housing Associations (HAs) contribute circa 20% of the UK’s housing supply. HAs are however under increasing pressure as a result of funding cuts and rent reductions. Due to the increased pressure, a number of processes are currently being reviewed by HAs, especially how they manage and learn from defects. Learning from defects is considered a useful approach to achieving defect reduction within the UK housebuilding industry. This paper contributes to our understanding of how HAs learn from defects by undertaking an initial round table discussion with key HA stakeholders as part of an ongoing collaborative research project with the National House Building Council (NHBC) to better understand how house builders and HAs learn from defects to reduce their prevalence. The initial discussion shows that defect information runs through a number of groups, both internal and external of a HA during both the defects management process and organizational learning (OL) process. Furthermore, HAs are reliant on capturing and recording defect data as the foundation for the OL process. During the OL process defect data analysis is the primary enabler to recognizing a need for a change to organizational routines. When a need for change has been recognized, new options are typically pursued to design out defects via updates to a HAs Employer’s Requirements. Proposed solutions are selected by a review board and committed to organizational routine. After implementing a change, both structured and unstructured feedback is sought to establish the change’s success. The findings from the HA discussion demonstrates that OL can achieve defect reduction within the house building sector in the UK. The paper concludes by outlining a potential ‘learning from defects model’ for the housebuilding industry as well as describing future work.

GALAXY EVOLUTION IN A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT: A MULTI-WAVELENGTH STUDY OF HCG 7

The environment where galaxies are found heavily influences their evolution. Close groupings, like the ones in the cores of galaxy clusters or compact groups, evolve in ways far more dramatic than their isolated counterparts. We have conducted a multi-wavelength study of Hickson Compact Group 7 (HCG 7), consisting of four giant galaxies: three spirals and one lenticular. We use Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging to identify and characterize the young and old star cluster populations. We find young massive clusters (YMCs) mostly in the three spirals, while the lenticular features a large, unimodal population of globular clusters (GCs) but no detectable clusters with ages less than a few Gyr. The spatial and approximate age distributions of the similar to 300 YMCs and similar to 150 GCs thus hint at a regular star formation history in the group over a Hubble time. While at first glance the HST data show the galaxies as undisturbed, our deep ground-based, wide-field imaging that extends the HST coverage reveals faint signatures of stellar material in the intragroup medium (IGM). We do not, however, detect the IGM in H I or Chandra X-ray observations, signatures that would be expected to arise from major mergers. Despite this fact, we find that the H I gas content of the individual galaxies and the group as a whole are a third of the expected abundance. The appearance of quiescence is challenged by spectroscopy that reveals an intense ionization continuum in one galaxy nucleus, and post-burst characteristics in another. Our spectroscopic survey of dwarf galaxy members yields a single dwarf elliptical galaxy in an apparent stellar tidal feature. Based on all this information, we suggest an evolutionary scenario for HCG 7, whereby the galaxies convert most of their available gas into stars without the influence of major mergers and ultimately result in a dry merger. As the conditions governing compact groups are reminiscent of galaxies at intermediate redshift, we propose that HCGs are appropriate for studying galaxy evolution at z similar to 1-2.

Inference From Aging Information

For many learning tasks the duration of the data collection can be greater than the time scale for changes of the underlying data distribution. The question we ask is how to include the information that data are aging. Ad hoc methods to achieve this include the use of validity windows that prevent the learning machine from making inferences based on old data. This introduces the problem of how to define the size of validity windows. In this brief, a new adaptive Bayesian inspired algorithm is presented for learning drifting concepts. It uses the analogy of validity windows in an adaptive Bayesian way to incorporate changes in the data distribution over time. We apply a theoretical approach based on information geometry to the classification problem and measure its performance in simulations. The uncertainty about the appropriate size of the memory windows is dealt with in a Bayesian manner by integrating over the distribution of the adaptive window size. Thus, the posterior distribution of the weights may develop algebraic tails. The learning algorithm results from tracking the mean and variance of the posterior distribution of the weights. It was found that the algebraic tails of this posterior distribution give the learning algorithm the ability to cope with an evolving environment by permitting the escape from local traps.

A home environment test battery for status assessment in patients with motor fluctuations

Background and aims Evaluating status in patients with motor fluctuations is complex and occasional observations/measurements do not give an adequate picture as to the time spent in different states. We developed a test battery to assess advanced Parkinson patients' status consisting of diary assessments and motor tests. This battery was constructed and implemented on a handheld computer with built-in mobile communication. In fluctuating patients, it should typically be used several times daily in the home environment, over periods of about one week. The aim of this battery is to provide status information in order to evaluate treatment effects in clinical practice and research, follow up treatments and disease progression and predict outcome to optimize treatment strategy. Methods Selection of diary questions was based on a previous study with Duodopa® (DIREQT). Tapping tests (with and without visual cueing) and a spiral drawing test were added. Rapid prototyping was used in development of the user interface. An evaluation with two pilot patients was performed before and after receiving new treatments for advanced disease (one received Duodopa® and one received DBS). Speed and proportion missed taps were calculated for the tapping tests and entropy of the radial drawing velocity was calculated for the spiral tests. Test variables were evaluated using non-parametric statistics. Results Post-treatment improvement was detected in both patients in many of the test variables. Conclusions Although validation work remains, preliminary results are promising and the test battery is currently being evaluated in a long-term health economics study with Duodopa® (DAPHNE).

Essays on growth and environment

This thesis consists of a summary and four self-contained papers. Paper [I] Following the 1987 report by The World Commission on Environment and Development, the genuine saving has come to play a key role in the context of sustainable development, and the World Bank regularly publishes numbers for genuine saving on a national basis. However, these numbers are typically calculated as if the tax system is non-distortionary. This paper presents an analogue to genuine saving in a second best economy, where the government raises revenue by means of distortionary taxation. We show how the social cost of public debt, which depends on the marginal excess burden, ought to be reflected in the genuine saving. We also illustrate by presenting calculations for Greece, Japan, Portugal, U.K., U.S. and OECD average, showing that the numbers published by the World Bank are likely to be biased and may even give incorrect information as to whether the economy is locally sustainable. Paper [II] This paper examines the relationships among per capita CO2 emissions, per capita GDP and international trade based on panel data spanning the period 1960-2008 for 150 countries. A distinction is also made between OECD and Non-OECD countries to capture the differences of this relationship between developed and developing economies. We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests, and estimate a panel error correction model. The results from the error correction model suggest that there are long-term relationships between the variables for the whole sample and for Non-OECD countries. Finally, Granger causality tests show that there is bi-directional short-term causality between per capita GDP and international trade for the whole sample and between per capita GDP and CO2 emissions for OECD countries. Paper [III] Fundamental questions in economics are why some regions are richer than others, why their growth rates differ, whether their growth rates tend to converge, and what key factors contribute to explain economic growth. This paper deals with the average income growth, net migration, and changes in unemployment rates at the municipal level in Sweden. The aim is to explore in depth the effects of possible underlying determinants with a particular focus on local policy variables. The analysis is based on a three-equation model. Our results show, among other things, that increases in the local public expenditure and income taxe rate have negative effects on subsequent income income growth. In addition, the results show conditional convergence, i.e. that the average income among the municipal residents tends to grow more rapidly in relatively poor local jurisdictions than in initially “richer” jurisdictions, conditional on the other explanatory variables. Paper [IV] This paper explores the relationship between income growth and income inequality using data at the municipal level in Sweden for the period 1992-2007. We estimate a fixed effects panel data growth model, where the within-municipality income inequality is one of the explanatory variables. Different inequality measures (Gini coefficient, top income shares, and measures of inequality in the lower and upper part of the income distribution) are examined. We find a positive and significant relationship between income growth and income inequality measured as the Gini coefficient and top income shares, respectively. In addition, while inequality in the upper part of the income distribution is positively associated with the income growth rate, inequality in the lower part of the income distribution seems to be negatively related to the income growth. Our findings also suggest that increased income inequality enhances growth more in municipalities with a high level of average income than in municipalities with a low level of average income.

Assessing the physical environment of older people’s residential care facilities: development of the Swedish version of the Sheffield Care Environment Assessment Matrix (S-SCEAM)

Background There is emerging evidence that the physical environment is important for health, quality of life and care, but there is a lack of valid instruments to assess health care environments. The Sheffield Care Environment Assessment Matrix (SCEAM), developed in the United Kingdom, provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical environment of residential care facilities for older people. This paper reports on the translation and adaptation of SCEAM for use in Swedish residential care facilities for older people, including information on its validity and reliability. Methods SCEAM was translated into Swedish and back-translated into English, and assessed for its relevance by experts using content validity index (CVI) together with qualitative data. After modification, the validity assessments were repeated and followed by test-retest and inter-rater reliability tests in six units within a Swedish residential care facility that varied in terms of their environmental characteristics. Results Translation and back translation identified linguistic and semantic related issues. The results of the first content validity analysis showed that more than one third of the items had item-CVI (I-CVI) values less than the critical value of 0.78.  After modifying the instrument, the second content validation analysis resulted in I-CVI scores above 0.78, the suggested criteria for excellent content validity. Test-retest reliability showed high stability (96% and 95% for two independent raters respectively), and inter-rater reliability demonstrated high levels of agreement (95% and 94% on two separate rating occasions). Kappa values were very good for test-retest (κ= 0.903 and 0.869) and inter-rater reliability (κ= 0.851 and 0.832). Conclusions Adapting an instrument to a domestic context is a complex and time-consuming process, requiring an understanding of the culture where the instrument was developed and where it is to be used. A team, including the instrument’s developers, translators, and researchers is necessary to ensure a valid translation and adaption. This study showed preliminary validity and reliability evidence for the Swedish version (S-SCEAM) when used in a Swedish context. Further, we believe that the S-SCEAM has improved compared to the original instrument and suggest that it can be used as a foundation for future developments of the SCEAM model.

Hedging options in a garch environment: testing the term structure of stochastic volatility models

This paper develops a methodology for testing the term structure of volatility forecasts derived from stochastic volatility models, and implements it to analyze models of S&P500 index volatility. U sing measurements of the ability of volatility models to hedge and value term structure dependent option positions, we fmd that hedging tests support the Black-Scholes delta and gamma hedges, but not the simple vega hedge when there is no model of the term structure of volatility. With various models, it is difficult to improve on a simple gamma hedge assuming constant volatility. Ofthe volatility models, the GARCH components estimate of term structure is preferred. Valuation tests indicate that all the models contain term structure information not incorporated in market prices.

Industry analysis of the high frequency trading industry : an assessment of the industry boundaries, environment and strategic options

O Mercado Acionário Americano evoluiu rapidamente na última década. Este tornou-se uma arquitetura aberta em que participantes com tecnologia inovadora podem competir de forma eficaz. Várias mudanças regulatórias e inovações tecnológicas permitiram mudanças profundas na estrutura do mercado. Essas mudanças, junto com o desenvolvimento tecnológico de redes de alta velocidade, agiu como um catalisador, dando origem a uma nova forma de negociação, denominada Negociação em Alta Frequência (HFT). As empresas de HFT surgiram e se apropriaram em larga escala do negócio de formação de mercado, no fornecimento de liquidez. Embora HFT tem crescido massivamente, ao longo dos últimos quatro anos, HFT perdeu rentabilidade significativamente, uma vez que mais empresas aderiram ao setor reduzindo as margens. Portanto, diante deste contexto, esta tese buscou apresentar uma breve revisão sobre a atividade de HFT, seguida de uma análise dos limites deste setor, bem como, das características do macroambiente do HFT. Para tanto, a tese realizou uma extensa revisão do histórico literário, documentos públicos qualitativos, tais como, jornais, atas de reunião e relatórios oficiais. A tese empregou um ferramental de análise, Barreiras de Entrada e Mobilidade (Porter, 1980); Modelos de Evolução Setorial (McGahan, 2004); Estrutura do Setor de Informação Intensiva (Sampler, 1998), para analisar os limites do setor de HFT. Adicionalmente, empregou as ferramentas de análise, Modelos de Evolução Setorial (McGahan, 2004) e PESTEL (JOHNSON, SCHOLES, and WHITTINGTON, 2011), para analisar o setor e o contexto que envolve o negócio de HFT. A análise concluiu que as empresas que empregam HFT para atuar e competir no mercado acionário, compoem um setor independente.

Flexible information acquisition and optimal Tobin tax in tractable dynamic global games

My dissertation focuses on dynamic aspects of coordination processes such as reversibility of early actions, option to delay decisions, and learning of the environment from the observation of other people’s actions. This study proposes the use of tractable dynamic global games where players privately and passively learn about their actions’ true payoffs and are able to adjust early investment decisions to the arrival of new information to investigate the consequences of the presence of liquidity shocks to the performance of a Tobin tax as a policy intended to foster coordination success (chapter 1), and the adequacy of the use of a Tobin tax in order to reduce an economy’s vulnerability to sudden stops (chapter 2). Then, it analyzes players’ incentive to acquire costly information in a sequential decision setting (chapter 3). In chapter 1, a continuum of foreign agents decide whether to enter or not in an investment project. A fraction λ of them are hit by liquidity restrictions in a second period and are forced to withdraw early investment or precluded from investing in the interim period, depending on the actions they chose in the first period. Players not affected by the liquidity shock are able to revise early decisions. Coordination success is increasing in the aggregate investment and decreasing in the aggregate volume of capital exit. Without liquidity shocks, aggregate investment is (in a pivotal contingency) invariant to frictions like a tax on short term capitals. In this case, a Tobin tax always increases success incidence. In the presence of liquidity shocks, this invariance result no longer holds in equilibrium. A Tobin tax becomes harmful to aggregate investment, which may reduces success incidence if the economy does not benefit enough from avoiding capital reversals. It is shown that the Tobin tax that maximizes the ex-ante probability of successfully coordinated investment is decreasing in the liquidity shock. Chapter 2 studies the effects of a Tobin tax in the same setting of the global game model proposed in chapter 1, with the exception that the liquidity shock is considered stochastic, i.e, there is also aggregate uncertainty about the extension of the liquidity restrictions. It identifies conditions under which, in the unique equilibrium of the model with low probability of liquidity shocks but large dry-ups, a Tobin tax is welfare improving, helping agents to coordinate on the good outcome. The model provides a rationale for a Tobin tax on economies that are prone to sudden stops. The optimal Tobin tax tends to be larger when capital reversals are more harmful and when the fraction of agents hit by liquidity shocks is smaller. Chapter 3 focuses on information acquisition in a sequential decision game with payoff complementar- ity and information externality. When information is cheap relatively to players’ incentive to coordinate actions, only the first player chooses to process information; the second player learns about the true payoff distribution from the observation of the first player’s decision and follows her action. Miscoordination requires that both players privately precess information, which tends to happen when it is expensive and the prior knowledge about the distribution of the payoffs has a large variance.

Information literacy: uma análise nas bibliotecas escolares da rede privada em Natal / RN

GUEDES, Clediane de Araújo; FARIAS, Gabriela Belmont de. Information literacy: uma análise nas bibliotecas escolares da rede privada em Natal / RN. Revista Digital de Biblioteconomia e Ciência da Informação, Campinas, v. 4, n. 2, p. 110-133, jan./jun. 2007