Colorectal cancer risk following adenoma removal: a large prospective population-based cohort study

Background: Randomised controlled trials have demonstrated significant reductions in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality associated with polypectomy. However, little is known about whether polypectomy is effective at reducing CRC risk in routine clinical practice. The aim of this investigation was to quantify CRC risk following polypectomy in a large prospective population-based cohort study.

Methods: Patients with incident colorectal polyps between 2000 and 2005 in Northern Ireland (NI) were identified via electronic pathology reports received to the NI Cancer Registry (NICR). Patients were matched to the NICR to detect CRC and deaths up to 31st December 2010. CRC standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated and Cox proportional hazards modelling applied to determine CRC risk.

Results: During 44,724 person-years of follow-up, 193 CRC cases were diagnosed amongst 6,972 adenoma patients, representing an annual progression rate of 0.43%. CRC risk was significantly elevated in patients who had an adenoma removed (SIR 2.85; 95% CI: 2.61 to 3.25) compared with the general population. Male sex, older age, rectal site and villous architecture were associated with an increased CRC risk in adenoma patients. Further analysis suggested that not having a full colonoscopy performed at, or following, incident polypectomy contributed to the excess CRC risk.

Conclusions: CRC risk was elevated in individuals following polypectomy for adenoma, outside of screening programmes.

Impact: This finding emphasises the need for full colonoscopy and adenoma clearance, and appropriate surveillance, after endoscopic diagnosis of adenoma.

Effect of a Web-Based Behavior Change Program on Weight Loss and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Overweight and Obese Adults at High Risk of Developing Cardiovascular Disease:Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND: Web-based programs are a potential medium for supporting weight loss because of their accessibility and wide reach. Research is warranted to determine the shorter- and longer-term effects of these programs in relation to weight loss and other health outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: The aim was to evaluate the effects of a Web-based component of a weight loss service (Imperative Health) in an overweight/obese population at risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) using a randomized controlled design and a true control group.

METHODS: A total of 65 overweight/obese adults at high risk of CVD were randomly allocated to 1 of 2 groups. Group 1 (n=32) was provided with the Web-based program, which supported positive dietary and physical activity changes and assisted in managing weight. Group 2 continued with their usual self-care (n=33). Assessments were conducted face-to-face. The primary outcome was between-group change in weight at 3 months. Secondary outcomes included between-group change in anthropometric measurements, blood pressure, lipid measurements, physical activity, and energy intake at 3, 6, and 12 months. Interviews were conducted to explore participants' views of the Web-based program.

RESULTS: Retention rates for the intervention and control groups at 3 months were 78% (25/32) vs 97% (32/33), at 6 months were 66% (21/32) vs 94% (31/33), and at 12 months were 53% (17/32) vs 88% (29/33). Intention-to-treat analysis, using baseline observation carried forward imputation method, revealed that the intervention group lost more weight relative to the control group at 3 months (mean -3.41, 95% CI -4.70 to -2.13 kg vs mean -0.52, 95% CI -1.55 to 0.52 kg, P<.001), at 6 months (mean -3.47, 95% CI -4.95 to -1.98 kg vs mean -0.81, 95% CI -2.23 to 0.61 kg, P=.02), but not at 12 months (mean -2.38, 95% CI -3.48 to -0.97 kg vs mean -1.80, 95% CI -3.15 to -0.44 kg, P=.77). More intervention group participants lost ≥5% of their baseline body weight at 3 months (34%, 11/32 vs 3%, 1/33, P<.001) and 6 months (41%, 13/32 vs 18%, 6/33, P=.047), but not at 12 months (22%, 7/32 vs 21%, 7/33, P=.95) versus control group. The intervention group showed improvements in total cholesterol, triglycerides, and adopted more positive dietary and physical activity behaviors for up to 3 months verus control; however, these improvements were not sustained.

CONCLUSIONS: Although the intervention group had high attrition levels, this study provides evidence that this Web-based program can be used to initiate clinically relevant weight loss and lower CVD risk up to 3-6 months based on the proportion of intervention group participants losing ≥5% of their body weight versus control group. It also highlights a need for augmenting Web-based programs with further interventions, such as in-person support to enhance engagement and maintain these changes.

Long-Term Follow-Up of a Large Active Surveillance Cohort of Patients With Prostate Cancer

PURPOSE: Active surveillance is increasingly accepted as a treatment option for favorable-risk prostate cancer. Long-term follow-up has been lacking. In this study, we report the long-term outcome of a large active surveillance protocol in men with favorable-risk prostate cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a prospective single-arm cohort study carried out at a single academic health sciences center, 993 men with favorable- or intermediate-risk prostate cancer were managed with an initial expectant approach. Intervention was offered for a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) doubling time of less than 3 years, Gleason score progression, or unequivocal clinical progression. Main outcome measures were overall and disease-specific survival, rate of treatment, and PSA failure rate in the treated patients.

RESULTS: Among the 819 survivors, the median follow-up time from the first biopsy is 6.4 years (range, 0.2 to 19.8 years). One hundred forty-nine (15%) of 993 patients died, and 844 patients are alive (censored rate, 85.0%). There were 15 deaths (1.5%) from prostate cancer. The 10- and 15-year actuarial cause-specific survival rates were 98.1% and 94.3%, respectively. An additional 13 patients (1.3%) developed metastatic disease and are alive with confirmed metastases (n = 9) or have died of other causes (n = 4). At 5, 10, and 15 years, 75.7%, 63.5%, and 55.0% of patients remained untreated and on surveillance. The cumulative hazard ratio for nonprostate-to-prostate cancer mortality was 9.2:1.

CONCLUSION: Active surveillance for favorable-risk prostate cancer is feasible and seems safe in the 15-year time frame. In our cohort, 2.8% of patients have developed metastatic disease, and 1.5% have died of prostate cancer. This mortality rate is consistent with expected mortality in favorable-risk patients managed with initial definitive intervention.

Caregiving reduces mortality risk for most caregivers: a census-based record linkage study

Importance Countries with advanced welfare systems are increasingly relying on the input of informal caregivers and there are growing concerns for their mental and physical wellbeing. However, the evidence about the relationship between caregiving and mortality risk is less clear.

Methods A census-based record linkage study with mortality follow-up of thirty-three months. A total of 1,122,779 individuals including 183,842 caregivers, of whom 28.2% (51,927) were providing fifty or more hours caregiving per week.

Results Over thirty-three months of follow-up a total of 29,335 deaths occurred, with 2,443 of these to caregivers. Mortality risk for caregivers was lower than for non-caregivers (HR= 0.72: 95%CI=0.69, 0.75 in the fully adjusted model), and the lower risk was evident even for those providing fifty or more hours of caregiving per week (adjusted Hazard Ratio=0.77: 95%CI=0.71, 0.83 and 0.76: 95%CI=0.69, 0.83 for men and women respectively). There was no evidence that this relationship varied by either age or marital status. Even amongst people with chronic health problems such as poor mental health, caregivers had lower mortality risk than non-caregivers. Caregiving is associated with reduced mortality risk for most causes - for example, the risk of death from Ischaemic Heart Disease for caregivers providing fifty or more hours was 27% and 31% lower for men and for women respectively compared to non-caregivers (HR=0.73: 95%CI=0.60, 0.88 and HR=0.69: 95%CI=0.51, 0.92).

Conclusions This large population-based study confirms that for the majority of caregivers the beneficial effects of caregiving in terms of short-term mortality risk appear to outweigh any negative effects, even amongst people with significant health problems. These results underscore the need for a reappraisal of how caregiving is perceived.


Keywords: caregiving, carers, mortality, longitudinal follow-up.
marital status. Even amongst people with chronic health problems such as poor mental health, caregivers had lower mortality risk than non-caregivers. Caregiving is associated with reduced mortality risk for most causes - for example, the risk of death from Ischaemic Heart Disease for caregivers providing fifty or more hours was 27% and 31% lower for men and for women respectively compared to non-caregivers (HR=0.73: 95%CI=0.60, 0.88 and HR=0.69: 95%CI=0.51, 0.92).

Conclusions This large population-based study confirms that for the majority of caregivers the beneficial effects of caregiving in terms of short-term mortality risk appear to outweigh any negative effects, even amongst people with significant health problems. These results underscore the need for a reappraisal of how caregiving is perceived.

HOXB13, RFX6 and prostate cancer risk

A new study shows that HOXB13 is preferentially recruited to the risk allele of a prostate cancer-associated SNP, enhancing the expression of RFX6, a driver of prostate cancer cell migration and predictor of disease progression. The work illustrates how a single risk locus contributes both to prostate cancer incidence and, through functional follow-up, to disease progression.

Integration of copy number and transcriptomics provides risk stratification in prostate cancer: A discovery and validation cohort study

BACKGROUND: Understanding the heterogeneous genotypes and phenotypes of prostate cancer is fundamental to improving the way we treat this disease. As yet, there are no validated descriptions of prostate cancer subgroups derived from integrated genomics linked with clinical outcome.

METHODS: In a study of 482 tumour, benign and germline samples from 259 men with primary prostate cancer, we used integrative analysis of copy number alterations (CNA) and array transcriptomics to identify genomic loci that affect expression levels of mRNA in an expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) approach, to stratify patients into subgroups that we then associated with future clinical behaviour, and compared with either CNA or transcriptomics alone.

FINDINGS: We identified five separate patient subgroups with distinct genomic alterations and expression profiles based on 100 discriminating genes in our separate discovery and validation sets of 125 and 103 men. These subgroups were able to consistently predict biochemical relapse (p = 0.0017 and p = 0.016 respectively) and were further validated in a third cohort with long-term follow-up (p = 0.027). We show the relative contributions of gene expression and copy number data on phenotype, and demonstrate the improved power gained from integrative analyses. We confirm alterations in six genes previously associated with prostate cancer (MAP3K7, MELK, RCBTB2, ELAC2, TPD52, ZBTB4), and also identify 94 genes not previously linked to prostate cancer progression that would not have been detected using either transcript or copy number data alone. We confirm a number of previously published molecular changes associated with high risk disease, including MYC amplification, and NKX3-1, RB1 and PTEN deletions, as well as over-expression of PCA3 and AMACR, and loss of MSMB in tumour tissue. A subset of the 100 genes outperforms established clinical predictors of poor prognosis (PSA, Gleason score), as well as previously published gene signatures (p = 0.0001). We further show how our molecular profiles can be used for the early detection of aggressive cases in a clinical setting, and inform treatment decisions.

INTERPRETATION: For the first time in prostate cancer this study demonstrates the importance of integrated genomic analyses incorporating both benign and tumour tissue data in identifying molecular alterations leading to the generation of robust gene sets that are predictive of clinical outcome in independent patient cohorts.

Challenging conventional risk assessment with respect to human exposure to multiple food contaminants in food: A case study using maize

Mycotoxins and heavy metals are ubiquitous in the environment and contaminate many foods. The widespread use of pesticides in crop production to control disease contributes further to the chemical contamination of foods. Thus multiple chemical contaminants threaten the safety of many food commodities; hence the present study used maize as a model crop to identify the severity in terms of human exposure when multiple contaminants are present. High Content Analysis (HCA) measuring multiple endpoints was used to determine cytotoxicity of complex mixtures of mycotoxins, heavy metals and pesticides. Endpoints included nuclear intensity (NI), nuclear area (NA), plasma membrane permeability (PMP), mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP) and mitochondrial mass (MM). At concentrations representing legal limits of each individual contaminant in maize (3. ng/ml ochratoxin A (OTA), 1. μg/ml fumonisin B1 (FB1), 2. ng/ml aflatoxin B1 (AFB1), 100. ng/ml cadmium (Cd), 150. ng/ml arsenic (As), 50. ng/ml chlorpyrifos (CP) and 5. μg/ml pirimiphos methyl (PM), the mixtures (tertiary mycotoxins plus Cd/As) and (tertiary mycotoxins plus Cd/As/CP/PM) were cytotoxic for NA and MM endpoints with a difference of up to 13.6% (. p≤. 0.0001) and 12% (. p≤. 0.0001) respectively from control values. The most cytotoxic mixture was (tertiary mycotoxins plus Cd/As/CP/PM) across all 4 endpoints (NA, NI, MM and MMP) with increases up to 61.3%, 23.0%, 61.4% and 36.3% (. p≤. 0.0001) respectively. Synergy was evident for two endpoints (NI and MM) at concentrations contaminating maize above legal limits, with differences between expected and measured values of (6.2-12.4% (. p≤. 0.05-. p≤. 0.001) and 4.5-12.3% (. p≤. 0.05-. p≤. 0.001) for NI and MM, respectively. The study introduces for the first time, a holistic approach to identify the impact in terms of toxicity to humans when multiple chemical contaminants are present in foodstuffs. Governmental regulatory bodies must begin to contemplate how to safeguard the population when such mixtures of contaminants are found in foods and this study starts to address this critical issue.

Long working hours and risk of coronary heart disease and stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis of published and unpublished data for 603 838 individuals

Background: Long working hours might increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, but prospective evidence is scarce, imprecise, and mostly limited to coronary heart disease. We aimed to assess long working hours as a risk factor for incident coronary heart disease and stroke. 

Methods We identified published studies through a systematic review of PubMed and Embase from inception to Aug 20, 2014. We obtained unpublished data for 20 cohort studies from the Individual-Participant-Data Meta-analysis in Working Populations (IPD-Work) Consortium and open-access data archives. We used cumulative random-effects meta-analysis to combine effect estimates from published and unpublished data. 

Findings We included 25 studies from 24 cohorts in Europe, the USA, and Australia. The meta-analysis of coronary heart disease comprised data for 603 838 men and women who were free from coronary heart disease at baseline; the meta-analysis of stroke comprised data for 528 908 men and women who were free from stroke at baseline. Follow-up for coronary heart disease was 5·1 million person-years (mean 8·5 years), in which 4768 events were recorded, and for stroke was 3·8 million person-years (mean 7·2 years), in which 1722 events were recorded. In cumulative meta-analysis adjusted for age, sex, and socioeconomic status, compared with standard hours (35-40 h per week), working long hours (≥55 h per week) was associated with an increase in risk of incident coronary heart disease (relative risk [RR] 1·13, 95% CI 1·02-1·26; p=0·02) and incident stroke (1·33, 1·11-1·61; p=0·002). The excess risk of stroke remained unchanged in analyses that addressed reverse causation, multivariable adjustments for other risk factors, and different methods of stroke ascertainment (range of RR estimates 1·30-1·42). We recorded a dose-response association for stroke, with RR estimates of 1·10 (95% CI 0·94-1·28; p=0·24) for 41-48 working hours, 1·27 (1·03-1·56; p=0·03) for 49-54 working hours, and 1·33 (1·11-1·61; p=0·002) for 55 working hours or more per week compared with standard working hours (p_trend<0·0001).

Interpretation Employees who work long hours have a higher risk of stroke than those working standard hours; the association with coronary heart disease is weaker. These findings suggest that more attention should be paid to the management of vascular risk factors in individuals who work long hours. 

Six-year follow-up of the SPHERE RCT: secondary prevention of heart disease in general practice.

Objective: To determine the long-term effectiveness of a complex intervention in primary care aimed at improving outcomes for patients with coronary heart disease.

Design: A 6-year follow-up of a cluster randomised controlled trial, which found after 18 months that both total and cardiovascular hospital admissions were significantly reduced in intervention practices (8% absolute reduction).

Setting: 48 general practices in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Participants: 903 patients with established coronary heart disease at baseline in the original trial.

Intervention: The original intervention consisted of tailored practice and patient plans; training sessions for practitioners in medication prescribing and behavioural change; and regular patient recall system. Control practices provided usual care. Following the intervention period, all supports from the research team to intervention practices ceased.

Outcome measures: Primary outcome: hospital admissions, all cause and cardiovascular; secondary outcomes: mortality; blood pressure and cholesterol control.

Results: At 6-year follow-up, data were collected from practice records of 696 patients (77%). For those who had died, we censored their data at the point of death and cause of death was established. There were no significant differences between the intervention and control practices in either total (OR 0.83 (95% CI 0.54 to 1.28)) or cardiovascular hospital admissions (OR 0.91 (95% CI 0.49 to 1.65)). We confirmed mortality status of 886 of the original 903 patients (98%). There were no significant differences in mortality (15% in intervention and 16% in control) or in the proportions of patients above target control for systolic blood pressure or total cholesterol.

Conclusions: Initial significant differences in the numbers of total and cardiovascular hospital admissions were not maintained at 6 years and no differences were found in mortality or blood pressure and cholesterol control. Policymakers need to continue to assess the effectiveness of previously efficacious programmes.

Trial registration number: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN24081411.

Hypofractionated radiotherapy versus conventionally fractionated radiotherapy for patients with intermediate-risk localised prostate cancer: 2-year patient-reported outcomes of the randomised, non-inferiority, phase 3 CHHiP trial

BACKGROUND: Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) might detect more toxic effects of radiotherapy than do clinician-reported outcomes. We did a quality of life (QoL) substudy to assess PROs up to 24 months after conventionally fractionated or hypofractionated radiotherapy in the Conventional or Hypofractionated High Dose Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy in Prostate Cancer (CHHiP) trial.

METHODS: The CHHiP trial is a randomised, non-inferiority phase 3 trial done in 71 centres, of which 57 UK hospitals took part in the QoL substudy. Men with localised prostate cancer who were undergoing radiotherapy were eligible for trial entry if they had histologically confirmed T1b-T3aN0M0 prostate cancer, an estimated risk of seminal vesicle involvement less than 30%, prostate-specific antigen concentration less than 30 ng/mL, and a WHO performance status of 0 or 1. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to receive a standard fractionation schedule of 74 Gy in 37 fractions or one of two hypofractionated schedules: 60 Gy in 20 fractions or 57 Gy in 19 fractions. Randomisation was done with computer-generated permuted block sizes of six and nine, stratified by centre and National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk group. Treatment allocation was not masked. UCLA Prostate Cancer Index (UCLA-PCI), including Short Form (SF)-36 and Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Prostate (FACT-P), or Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite (EPIC) and SF-12 quality-of-life questionnaires were completed at baseline, pre-radiotherapy, 10 weeks post-radiotherapy, and 6, 12, 18, and 24 months post-radiotherapy. The CHHiP trial completed accrual on June 16, 2011, and the QoL substudy was closed to further recruitment on Nov 1, 2009. Analysis was on an intention-to-treat basis. The primary endpoint of the QoL substudy was overall bowel bother and comparisons between fractionation groups were done at 24 months post-radiotherapy. The CHHiP trial is registered with ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN97182923.

FINDINGS: 2100 participants in the CHHiP trial consented to be included in the QoL substudy: 696 assigned to the 74 Gy schedule, 698 assigned to the 60 Gy schedule, and 706 assigned to the 57 Gy schedule. Of these individuals, 1659 (79%) provided data pre-radiotherapy and 1444 (69%) provided data at 24 months after radiotherapy. Median follow-up was 50·0 months (IQR 38·4-64·2) on April 9, 2014, which was the most recent follow-up measurement of all data collected before the QoL data were analysed in September, 2014. Comparison of 74 Gy in 37 fractions, 60 Gy in 20 fractions, and 57 Gy in 19 fractions groups at 2 years showed no overall bowel bother in 269 (66%), 266 (65%), and 282 (65%) men; very small bother in 92 (22%), 91 (22%), and 93 (21%) men; small bother in 26 (6%), 28 (7%), and 38 (9%) men; moderate bother in 19 (5%), 23 (6%), and 21 (5%) men, and severe bother in four (<1%), three (<1%) and three (<1%) men respectively (74 Gy vs 60 Gy, ptrend=0.64, 74 Gy vs 57 Gy, ptrend=0·59). We saw no differences between treatment groups in change of bowel bother score from baseline or pre-radiotherapy to 24 months.

INTERPRETATION: The incidence of patient-reported bowel symptoms was low and similar between patients in the 74 Gy control group and the hypofractionated groups up to 24 months after radiotherapy. If efficacy outcomes from CHHiP show non-inferiority for hypofractionated treatments, these findings will add to the growing evidence for moderately hypofractionated radiotherapy schedules becoming the standard treatment for localised prostate cancer.

FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Department of Health, and the National Institute for Health Research Cancer Research Network.

Predictive Value of Depressive Symptoms for All-Cause Mortality: Findings From the PRIME Belfast Study Examining the Role of Inflammation and Cardiovascular Risk Markers

OBJECTIVES: To improve understanding about the potential underlying biological mechanisms in the link between depression and all-cause mortality and to investigate the role that inflammatory and other cardiovascular risk factors may play in the relationship between depressive symptoms and mortality.

METHODS: Depression and blood-based biological markers were assessed in the Belfast PRIME prospective cohort study (N = 2389 men, aged 50-59 years) in which participants were followed up for 18 years. Depression was measured using the 10-item Welsh Pure Depression Inventory. Inflammation markers (C-reactive protein [CRP], neopterin, interleukin [IL]-1 receptor antagonist [IL-1Ra], and IL-18) and cardiovascular-specific risk factors (N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-adrenomedullin, C-terminal pro-endothelin-1 [CT-proET]) were obtained at baseline. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to examine the association between depression and biological measures in relation to all-cause mortality and explore the mediating effects.

RESULTS: During follow-up, 418 participants died. Higher levels of depressive symptoms were associated with higher levels of CRP, IL-1Ra, and CT-proET. After adjustment for socioeconomic and life-style risk factors, depressive symptoms were significantly associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 1.10 per scale unit, 95% confidence interval = 1.04-1.16). This association was partly explained by CRP (7.3%) suggesting a minimal mediation effect. IL-1Ra, N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-adrenomedullin, and CT-proET contributed marginally to the association between depression and subsequent mortality.

CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory and cardiovascular risk markers are associated with depression and with increased mortality. However, depression and biological measures show additive effects rather than a pattern of meditation of biological factors in the association between depression and mortality.

Protocol-driven adjustment of ocular hypotensive medication in patients at low risk of conversion to glaucoma

AIM: To investigate the safety and potential savings of decreasing medication use in low-risk patients with ocular hypertension (OH).
METHODS: Patients with OH receiving pressure-lowering medication identified by medical record review at a university hospital underwent examination by a glaucoma specialist with assessment of visual field (VF), vertical cup-to-disc ratio (vCDR), central corneal thickness and intraocular pressure (IOP). Subjects with estimated 5-year risk of glaucoma conversion <15% were asked to discontinue ≥1 medication, IOP was remeasured 1 month later and risk was re-evaluated at 1 year.
RESULTS: Among 212 eyes of 126 patients, 44 (20.8%) had 5-year risk >15% and 14 (6.6%) had unreliable baseline VF. At 1 month, 15 patients (29 eyes, 13.7%) defaulted follow-up or refused to discontinue medication and 11 eyes (5.2%) had risk >15%. The remaining 69 patients (107 eyes, 50.7%) successfully discontinued 141 medications and completed 1-year follow-up. Mean IOP (20.5±2.65 mm Hg vs 20.3±3.40, p=0.397) did not change, though mean VF pattern SD (1.58±0.41 dB vs 1.75±0.56 dB, p=0.001) and glaucoma conversion risk (7.31±3.74% vs 8.76±6.28%, p=0.001) increased at 1 year. Mean defect decreased (-1.42±1.60 vs -1.07±1.52, p=0.022). One eye (0.47%) developed a repeatable VF defect and 13 eyes (6.1%) had 5-year risk >15% at 1 year. The total 1-year cost of medications saved was US$4596.
CONCLUSIONS: Nearly half (43.9%) of low-risk OH eyes in this setting could safely reduce medications over 1 year, realising substantial savings.Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Growing Up On an Interface: Findings and Implications for the Social Needs, Mental Health and Lifetime Opportunities of Belfast Youth

In this research we aimed to find out what types of risk (if any) affected young people and children growing up in places of high religious segregation or what we normally call interface communities. This is important as we know that risk and experiences of harm and violence can have negative impacts upon development, emotional well-being and future prospects. It is important to understand what types of risk affect young people and children so as we can respond to these in terms of aiding better personal and community development with regard to health, work, education and wider opportunities.

Quantification of the smoking-associated cancer risk with rate advancement periods: meta-analysis of individual participant data from cohorts of the CHANCES consortium

BACKGROUND: Smoking is the most important individual risk factor for many cancer sites but its association with breast and prostate cancer is not entirely clear. Rate advancement periods (RAPs) may enhance communication of smoking related risk to the general population. Thus, we estimated RAPs for the association of smoking exposure (smoking status, time since smoking cessation, smoking intensity, and duration) with total and site-specific (lung, breast, colorectal, prostate, gastric, head and neck, and pancreatic) cancer incidence and mortality.

METHODS: This is a meta-analysis of 19 population-based prospective cohort studies with individual participant data for 897,021 European and American adults. For each cohort we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of smoking exposure with cancer outcomes using Cox regression adjusted for a common set of the most important potential confounding variables. RAPs (in years) were calculated as the ratio of the logarithms of the HRs for a given smoking exposure variable and age. Meta-analyses were employed to summarize cohort-specific HRs and RAPs.

RESULTS: Overall, 140,205 subjects had a first incident cancer, and 53,164 died from cancer, during an average follow-up of 12 years. Current smoking advanced the overall risk of developing and dying from cancer by eight and ten years, respectively, compared with never smokers. The greatest advancements in cancer risk and mortality were seen for lung cancer and the least for breast cancer. Smoking cessation was statistically significantly associated with delays in the risk of cancer development and mortality compared with continued smoking.

CONCLUSIONS: This investigation shows that smoking, even among older adults, considerably advances, and cessation delays, the risk of developing and dying from cancer. These findings may be helpful in more effectively communicating the harmful effects of smoking and the beneficial effect of smoking cessation.

The design and implementation of a study to investigate the effectiveness of community vs hospital eye service follow-up for patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration with quiescent disease

Introduction
Standard treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) is intravitreal injections of anti-VEGF drugs. Following multiple injections, nAMD lesions often become quiescent but there is a high risk of reactivation, and regular review by hospital ophthalmologists is the norm. The present trial examines the feasibility of community optometrists making lesion reactivation decisions.

Methods
The Effectiveness of Community vs Hospital Eye Service (ECHoES) trial is a virtual trial; lesion reactivation decisions were made about vignettes that comprised clinical data, colour fundus photographs, and optical coherence tomograms displayed on a web-based platform. Participants were either hospital ophthalmologists or community optometrists. All participants were provided with webinar training on the disease, its management, and assessment of the retinal imaging outputs. In a balanced design, 96 participants each assessed 42 vignettes; a total of 288 vignettes were assessed seven times by each professional group.The primary outcome is a participant's judgement of lesion reactivation compared with a reference standard. Secondary outcomes are the frequency of sight threatening errors; judgements about specific lesion components; participant-rated confidence in their decisions about the primary outcome; cost effectiveness of follow-up by optometrists rather than ophthalmologists.

Discussion
This trial addresses an important question for the NHS, namely whether, with appropriate training, community optometrists can make retreatment decisions for patients with nAMD to the same standard as hospital ophthalmologists. The trial employed a novel approach as participation was entirely through a web-based application; the trial required very few resources compared with those that would have been needed for a conventional randomised controlled clinical trial.