Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

Risk factors of postictal generalized EEG suppression in generalized convulsive seizures.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the clinical determinants of occurrence of postictal generalized EEG suppression (PGES) after generalized convulsive seizures (GCS). METHODS: We reviewed the video-EEG recordings of 417 patients included in the REPO2MSE study, a multicenter prospective cohort study of patients with drug-resistant focal epilepsy. According to ictal semiology, we classified GCS into 3 types: tonic-clonic GCS with bilateral and symmetric tonic arm extension (type 1), clonic GCS without tonic arm extension or flexion (type 2), and GCS with unilateral or asymmetric tonic arm extension or flexion (type 3). Association between PGES and person-specific or seizure-specific variables was analyzed after correction for individual effects and the varying number of seizures. RESULTS: A total of 99 GCS in 69 patients were included. Occurrence of PGES was independently associated with GCS type (p < 0.001) and lack of early administration of oxygen (p < 0.001). Odds ratio (OR) for GCS type 1 in comparison with GCS type 2 was 66.0 (95% confidence interval [CI 5.4-801.6]). In GCS type 1, risk of PGES was significantly increased when the seizure occurred during sleep (OR 5.0, 95% CI 1.2-20.9) and when oxygen was not administered early (OR 13.4, 95% CI 3.2-55.9). CONCLUSION: The risk of PGES dramatically varied as a function of GCS semiologic characteristics. Whatever the type of GCS, occurrence of PGES was prevented by early administration of oxygen.

Re-visiting the health care luxury good hypothesis: Aggregation, precision, and publication biases?

[cat] Mentre que una creixent literatura que ha examinat la relació entre la renda i la despesa sanitària suggereix que els serveis sanitaris són un be de luxe (elasticitat renda superior a la unitat), aquesta conclusió es contínuament debatuda atesa l'heterogeneïtat dels resultats. Aquest article testa la hipòtesis dels serveis sanitaris com bens de luxe fent server anàlisi de meta- regressió, particularment analitzant l'existència de biaixos de selecció de publicació, precisió així com biaixos d'agregació. Els resultats apunten l'existència d'un biaix de publicació, robust independentment dels controls analitzats. Els biaixos de precisió i agregació semblen tenir un paper en la generació de les estimacions de l'elasticitat renda. Els nostres resultat suggereixen que l'elasticitat renda dels serveis sanitaris un cop corregir pels biaixos esmentat varien entre 0.26 i 0.84, però no podem rebutjar que la elasticitat renda es igual a la unitat en algunes estimacions de l'elasticitat corregides.

Re-visiting the health care luxury good hypothesis: Aggregation, precision, and publication biases?

[cat] Mentre que una creixent literatura que ha examinat la relació entre la renda i la despesa sanitària suggereix que els serveis sanitaris són un be de luxe (elasticitat renda superior a la unitat), aquesta conclusió es contínuament debatuda atesa l'heterogeneïtat dels resultats. Aquest article testa la hipòtesis dels serveis sanitaris com bens de luxe fent server anàlisi de meta- regressió, particularment analitzant l'existència de biaixos de selecció de publicació, precisió així com biaixos d'agregació. Els resultats apunten l'existència d'un biaix de publicació, robust independentment dels controls analitzats. Els biaixos de precisió i agregació semblen tenir un paper en la generació de les estimacions de l'elasticitat renda. Els nostres resultat suggereixen que l'elasticitat renda dels serveis sanitaris un cop corregir pels biaixos esmentat varien entre 0.26 i 0.84, però no podem rebutjar que la elasticitat renda es igual a la unitat en algunes estimacions de l'elasticitat corregides.

Generalized three-sided assignment markets: consistency and the core

A class of three-sided markets (and games) is considered, where value is generated by pairs or triplets of agents belonging to different sectors, as well as by individuals. For these markets we analyze the situation that arises when some agents leave the market with some payoff To this end, we introduce the derived market (and game) and relate it to the Davis and Maschler (1965) reduced game. Consistency with respect to the derived market, together with singleness best and individual anti-monotonicity axiomatically characterize the core for these generalized three-sided assignment markets. These markets may have an empty core, but we define a balanced subclass, where the worth of each triplet is defined as the addition of the worths of the pairs it contains. Keywords: Multi-sided assignment market, Consistency, Core, Nucleolus. JEL Classification: C71, C78

Parallel characterizations of a generalized shapley value and a generalized banzhaf value for cooperative games with level structure of cooperation

We present parallel characterizations of two different values in the framework of restricted cooperation games. The restrictions are introduced as a finite sequence of partitions defined on the player set, each of them being coarser than the previous one, hence forming a structure of different levels of a priori unions. On the one hand, we consider a value first introduced in Ref. [18], which extends the Shapley value to games with different levels of a priori unions. On the other hand, we introduce another solution for the same type of games, which extends the Banzhaf value in the same manner. We characterize these two values using logically comparable properties.

Genetic diversity and species richness patterns in Baetidae (Ephemeroptera) in the Montseny Mountain range (North-East Iberian Peninsula)

This study aimed to describe patterns of diversity of Baetidae (Ephemeroptera) at the ommunity and population levels within the Montseny Mountain range (North-East Iberian Peninsula). We studied both the distribution of 4 species of baetids in 20 sites among three catchments along the altitudinal gradient (350-1700 masl); and the genetic diversity of the mtDNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (cox1) gene of the two common species Baetis alpinus and Baetis rhodani. We found a gradual replacement of the dominant species along the altitudinal gradient. Baetis alpinus inhabited sites at high-altitudes, and this species was replaced by B. rhodani when the altitude decreased. Baetis melanonyx and Alainites muticus attained low abundance at all river sections, and no clear altitudinal trend appeared. Our hypothesis at the population level was that genetic structuring is associated with geographic distance and limited by drainage boundaries among the three studied catchments because of the short-time dispersion of adults. Unexpectedly, analyses of molecular variance (AMOVA) and isolation-bydistance (IBD) showed genetic diversity was unstructured by distance for both species, which may be explained by the relatively short spatial scale studied and small topographic barriers among the three catchments. The Generalized Mixed Yule-Coalescent (GMYC) model showed that B. rhodani had two differentiated genetic lineages that co-occurred in all sites. Overall, diversity of baetids was structured at the community level along the altitudinal gradient, whereas it was unstructured at the population level within the Montseny Mountain range.

Genetic diversity and species richness patterns in Baetidae (Ephemeroptera) in the Montseny Mountain range (North-East Iberian Peninsula)

This study aimed to describe patterns of diversity of Baetidae (Ephemeroptera) at the ommunity and population levels within the Montseny Mountain range (North-East Iberian Peninsula). We studied both the distribution of 4 species of baetids in 20 sites among three catchments along the altitudinal gradient (350-1700 masl); and the genetic diversity of the mtDNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (cox1) gene of the two common species Baetis alpinus and Baetis rhodani. We found a gradual replacement of the dominant species along the altitudinal gradient. Baetis alpinus inhabited sites at high-altitudes, and this species was replaced by B. rhodani when the altitude decreased. Baetis melanonyx and Alainites muticus attained low abundance at all river sections, and no clear altitudinal trend appeared. Our hypothesis at the population level was that genetic structuring is associated with geographic distance and limited by drainage boundaries among the three studied catchments because of the short-time dispersion of adults. Unexpectedly, analyses of molecular variance (AMOVA) and isolation-bydistance (IBD) showed genetic diversity was unstructured by distance for both species, which may be explained by the relatively short spatial scale studied and small topographic barriers among the three catchments. The Generalized Mixed Yule-Coalescent (GMYC) model showed that B. rhodani had two differentiated genetic lineages that co-occurred in all sites. Overall, diversity of baetids was structured at the community level along the altitudinal gradient, whereas it was unstructured at the population level within the Montseny Mountain range.

Random walk radiosity with generalized absorption probabilities

The author studies random walk estimators for radiosity with generalized absorption probabilities. That is, a path will either die or survive on a patch according to an arbitrary probability. The estimators studied so far, the infinite path length estimator and finite path length one, can be considered as particular cases. Practical applications of the random walks with generalized probabilities are given. A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of the variance is given, together with heuristics to be used in practical cases. The optimal probabilities are also found for the case when one is interested in the whole scene, and are equal to the reflectivities

A Markov chain analysis of emotional exchange in voice-to-voice communication: Testing for the mimicry hypothesis of emotional contagion

Mimicry is a central plank of the emotional contagion theory; however, it was only tested with facial and postural emotional stimuli. This study explores the existence of mimicry in voice-to-voice communication by analyzing 8,747 sequences of emotional displays between customers and employees in a call-center context. We listened live to 967 telephone inter-actions, registered the sequences of emotional displays, and analyzed them with a Markov chain. We also explored other propositions of emotional contagion theory that were yet to be tested in vocal contexts. Results supported that mimicry is significantly present at all levels. Our findings fill an important gap in the emotional contagion theory; have practical implications regarding voice-to-voice interactions; and open doors for future vocal mimicry research.

On the structure of cooperative and competitive solutions for a generalized assignment game

We study cooperative and competitive solutions for a many- to-many generalization of Shapley and Shubik (1972)'s assignment game. We consider the Core, three other notions of group stability and two al- ternative definitions of competitive equilibrium. We show that (i) each group stable set is closely related with the Core of certain games defined using a proper notion of blocking and (ii) each group stable set contains the set of payoff vectors associated to the two definitions of competitive equilibrium. We also show that all six solutions maintain a strictly nested structure. Moreover, each solution can be identified with a set of ma- trices of (discriminated) prices which indicate how gains from trade are distributed among buyers and sellers. In all cases such matrices arise as solutions of a system of linear inequalities. Hence, all six solutions have the same properties from a structural and computational point of view.

Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis on the Baltic Stock Markets

The purpose of the thesis is to analyze whether the returns of general stock market indices of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania follow the random walk hypothesis (RWH), and in addition, whether they are consistent with the weak-form efficiency criterion. Also the existence of the day-of-the-week anomaly is examined in the same regional markets. The data consists of daily closing quotes of the OMX Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius total return indices for the sample period from January 3, 2000 to August 28, 2009. Moreover, the full sample period is also divided into two sub-periods. The RWH is tested by applying three quantitative methods (i.e. the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, serial correlation test and non-parametric runs test). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with dummy variables is employed to detect the day-of-the-week anomalies. The random walk hypothesis (RWH) is rejected in the Estonian and Lithuanian stock markets. The Latvian stock market exhibits more efficient behaviour, although some evidence of inefficiency is also found, mostly during the first sub-period from 2000 to 2004. Day-of-the-week anomalies are detected on every stock market examined, though no longer during the later sub-period.

A generalized 1D particle transport method for convection diffusion reaction model

This work is devoted to the development of numerical method to deal with convection diffusion dominated problem with reaction term, non - stiff chemical reaction and stiff chemical reaction. The technique is based on the unifying Eulerian - Lagrangian schemes (particle transport method) under the framework of operator splitting method. In the computational domain, the particle set is assigned to solve the convection reaction subproblem along the characteristic curves created by convective velocity. At each time step, convection, diffusion and reaction terms are solved separately by assuming that, each phenomenon occurs separately in a sequential fashion. Moreover, adaptivities and projection techniques are used to add particles in the regions of high gradients (steep fronts) and discontinuities and transfer a solution from particle set onto grid point respectively. The numerical results show that, the particle transport method has improved the solutions of CDR problems. Nevertheless, the method is time consumer when compared with other classical technique e.g., method of lines. Apart from this advantage, the particle transport method can be used to simulate problems that involve movingsteep/smooth fronts such as separation of two or more elements in the system.

Generalized Differential Evolution for Global Multi-Objective Optimization with Constraints

The objective of this thesis work is to develop and study the Differential Evolution Algorithm for multi-objective optimization with constraints. Differential Evolution is an evolutionary algorithm that has gained in popularity because of its simplicity and good observed performance. Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms have become popular since they are able to produce a set of compromise solutions during the search process to approximate the Pareto-optimal front. The starting point for this thesis was an idea how Differential Evolution, with simple changes, could be extended for optimization with multiple constraints and objectives. This approach is implemented, experimentally studied, and further developed in the work. Development and study concentrates on the multi-objective optimization aspect. The main outcomes of the work are versions of a method called Generalized Differential Evolution. The versions aim to improve the performance of the method in multi-objective optimization. A diversity preservation technique that is effective and efficient compared to previous diversity preservation techniques is developed. The thesis also studies the influence of control parameters of Differential Evolution in multi-objective optimization. Proposals for initial control parameter value selection are given. Overall, the work contributes to the diversity preservation of solutions in multi-objective optimization.