Fragility of information cascades: an experimental study using elicited beliefs

This paper examines the occurrence and fragility of information cascades in two laboratory experiments. One group of low informed participants sequentially guess which of two states has been randomly chosen. In a matched pairs design, another group of high informed participants make similar guesses after having observed the guesses of the low informed participants. In the second experiment, participants' beliefs about the chosen state are elicited. In equilibrium, low informed players who observe an established pattern of identical guesses herd without regard to their private information whereas high informed players always guess according to their private information. Equilibrium behavior implies that information cascades emerge in the group of low informed participants, the belief based solely on cascade guesses is stationary, and information cascades are systematically broken by high informed participants endowed with private information contradicting the cascade guesses. Experimental results show that the behavior of low informed participants is qualitatively in line with the equilibrium prediction. Information cascades often emerge in our experiments. The tendency of low informed participants to engage in cascade behavior increases with the number of identical guesses. Our main finding is that information cascades are not fragile. The behavior of high informed participants differs markedly from the equilibrium prediction. Only one-third of laboratory cascades are broken by high informed participants endowed with private information contradicting the cascade guesses. The relative frequency of cascade breaks is 15% for the situations where five or more identical guesses are observed. Participants' elicited beliefs are strongly consistent with their own behavior and show that, unlike in equilibrium, the more cascade guesses participants observe the more they believe in the state favored by those guesses.

A Theoretical and Experimental Study of Resonance in a High Performance Engine Intake System: Part 2

The unsteady gas dynamic phenomena in a racecar airbox have been examined, and resonant tuning effects have been considered. A coupled 1D/3D analysis, using the engine simulation package Virtual 4-Stroke and the CFD package FLUENT, was used to model the engine and airbox. The models were experimentally validated. An airbox was designed with a natural frequency in the region of 75 Hz. A coupled 1D/3D analysis of the airbox and a Yamaha R6 4 cylinder engine predicted resonance at the single-cylinder induction frequency; 75 Hz at an engine speed of 9000 rpm.

Physical Activity Loyalty Cards for Behavior Change:A Quasi-Experimental Study

Background: Financial incentives have been advocated by the UK and U.S. governments to encourage adoption of healthy lifestyles. However, evidence to support the use of incentives for changing physical activity (PA) behavior is sparse.
Purpose:To investigate the effectiveness of?nancial incentives to increase PA in adults in the workplace.
Design: Two-arm quasi-experimental design.
Setting/participants: Employees (n¼406) in a workplace setting in Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK.
Intervention: Using a loyalty card to collect points and earn rewards, participants (n¼199) in the Incentive Group monitored their PA levels and received ?nancial incentives (retail vouchers) for minutes of PA completed over the course of a 12-week intervention period. Participants (n¼207) in the comparison group used their loyalty card to self-monitor their PA levels but were not able to earn points or obtain incentives (No Incentive Group).
Main outcome measures:The primary outcome was minutes of PA objectively measured using a novel PA tracking system at baseline (April 2011); Week 6 (June 2011); and Week 12 (July 2011).
Other outcomes, including a self-report measure of PA, were collected at baseline, Week 12, and 6 months (October 2011). Data were analyzed in June 2012.
Results: No signi?cant differences between groups were found for primary or secondary outcomes at the 12-week and 6-month assessments. Participants in the Incentive Group recorded 17.52 minutes of PA/week (95% CI¼12.49, 22.56) compared to 16.63 minutes/week (95% CI¼11.76, 21.51) in the No Incentive Group at Week 12 (p¼0.59). At 6 months, participants in the Incentive Group recorded 26.18 minutes of PA/week (95% CI¼20.06, 32.29) compared to 24.00 minutes/week (95% CI¼17.45, 30.54) in the No Incentive Group (p¼0.45).
Conclusions: Financial incentives did not encourage participants to undertake more PA than selfmonitoring PA. This study contributes to the evidence base and has important implications for increasing participation in physical activity and fostering links with the business sector. (Am J Prev Med 2013;45(1):56–63) © 2013 American Journal of Preventive Medicine

An experimental study of quinine blindness

An experimental model of quinine induced blindness is presented. Electrophysiological, angiographical and morphological examinations were made. The occurrence of blindness and any recovery from blindness was dependent upon the dose of quinine taken. As no evidence of acute retinal ischaemia was found it is concluded that quinine is retinotoxic.