Holt, Johnson and the 1966 Federal Election. A Question of Causality

US President Lyndon Johnson's state visit to Australia in October 1966, came at the pinnacle of support for Australia's military involvement in the Vietnam War. Johnson's visit also occurred just weeks before an election for the House of Representatives at which the ruling Liberal-Country Party Coalition won its eighth successive, and largest victory, The proximity of these events has led many to argue that a causal relationship exists between the two. Advocates of this thesis, however, have failed to support their position with any evidence other than the anecdotal. Contrary to the assertions made by numerous political historians and observers of the period, this paper finds no evidence to support a thesis of causality. This paper argues that the Coalition's landslide victory in 1966 was both a rejection of the tired and lacklustre leadership of Labor's Arthur Calwell and a measure of the electorate's overwhelming support for Holt and his Government's policies of conscription and military involvement in Vietnam.

Deciding who has the right to vote: A comparative analysis of election laws

The paper analyses seven potential restrictions to the right to vote in 63 democracies. Only two of these restrictions have given rise to a near consensus. An overwhelming majority of democracies have decided that the minimum voting age should be 18 and that the right to vote of mentally deficient people should be restricted. There is little consensus about whether the right to vote should be restrcited to citizens, about whether there should be country or electoral district residence requirements, about which electors residing abroad (if any) should retain their right to vote and about which prison inmates (if any) should have the right to vote. The paper also examines two factors that affect right to vote laws: British colonialism and level of political rights. The pattern found with respect to electoral systems, whereby former British colonies emulate their former ruler, is less systematic in the case of right to vote legislation. Finally, “strong” democracies are slightly more inclusive than “weak” ones when deciding who has the right to vote.

Health and demographic characteristics of respondents in an Australian national sexuality survey: comparison with population norms

Study objective: To assess the representativeness of survey participants by systematically comparing volunteers in a national health and sexuality survey with the Australian population in terms of self reported health status (including the SF-36) and a wide range of demographic characteristics. Design: A cross sectional sample of Australian residents were compared with demographic data from the 1996 Australian census and health data from the 1995 National Health Survey. Setting: The Australian population. Participants: A stratified random sample of adults aged 18-59 years drawn from the Australian electoral roll, a compulsory register of voters. Interviews were completed with 1784 people, representing 40% of those initially selected (58% of those for whom a valid telephone number could be located). Main results: Participants were of similar age and sex to the national population. Consistent with prior research, respondents had higher socioeconomic status, more education, were more likely to be employed, and less likely to be immigrants. The prevalence estimates, means, and variances of self reported mental and physical health measures (for example, SF-36 subscales, women's health indicators, current smoking status) were similar to population norms. Conclusions: These findings considerably strengthen inferences about the representativeness of data on health status from volunteer samples used in health and sexuality surveys.

Sexual dysfunction in the Australian population

AIM: To describe the prevalence and forms of sexual dysfunction experienced by Australians, and compare these with people in the United States. METHODS: A cross sectional, telephone interview survey of a randomly selected sample of men (n = 876) and women (n = 908) aged between 18 and 59 years on the electoral roll in all states and territories of Australia (response rate = 61%) was conducted between November 1999 and April 2000. RESULTS: Large proportions of Australian men (55.0%) and women (60.5%) reported at least one sexual problem within the preceding year. More serious sexual dysfunction (> 3 symptoms) was observed in 13.2% of men and 19.7% of women. DISCUSSION: Australia and the USA are similar with regard to the high rate of symptoms of sexual dysfunction observed in the population. The low rate of treatment points to both patient and doctor reluctance to discuss sexual performance and practices.

A pesquisa governamental de opini??o p??blica: raz??es, limites e a experi??ncia recente no Brasil

Este trabalho discute raz??es pelas quais se deve esperar que governos representativos mantenham um programa institucionalizado de pesquisa de opini??o p??blica. O argumento divide-se em quatro se????es. Na primeira, discutem-se raz??es te??ricas e operacionais para que os governos acompanhem ao longo do tempo o comportamento de opini??es e prefer??ncias dos cidad??os. Na segunda, descrevem-se as consequ??ncias da (im)popularidade governamental, medida sint??tica e crucial da rela????o entre representantes e representados. Em seguida, uma terceira se????o aponta poss??veis fronteiras ou limites que permitiriam distinguir o escopo das pesquisas de opini??o p??blica realizadas pelos governos daquele das conduzidas com prop??sito cient??fico, mercadol??gico e, sobretudo, eleitoral. Finalmente, a quarta se????o descreve a recente experi??ncia do governo brasileiro nessa ??rea

Efetividade da participação no legislativo capixaba : um estudo sobre as audiências públicas do orçamento (2007-2014)

Esta pesquisa é um estudo sobre as audiências públicas da Lei Orçamentária Anual (LOA) realizadas pela Assembleia Legislativa do Espírito Santo (ALES) no período de 2007 até 2014. O tema central deste trabalho é a efetividade da participação das audiências, ancorada em duas dimensões: o momento deliberativo e os resultados das audiências. Partimos do pressuposto que, apesar da dificuldade de mensurar efeitos práticos, as Instituições Participativas, tais como as audiências da LOA, atuam em um propósito de aprofundamento da democracia, especialmente na destinação de recursos de acordo com demandas da sociedade. Dentro desse cenário, o presente trabalho analisa elementos constituintes das audiências (perfil dos legisladores, desenho institucional, perfil dos participantes, influência do poder Executivo e as emendas parlamentares) para avaliar a efetividade da participação. Para esta análise, utilizamos uma abordagem multimétodo com a combinação de três ferramentas de pesquisa: análise documental (relatórios da LOA, legislações e vídeos das audiências públicas), survey (aplicado a participantes das audiências de 2014) e entrevista semiestruturada (com os parlamentares que fazem parte da Comissão de Finanças). A análise aponta para a baixa efetividade das audiências a partir da combinação de vários fatores, entre eles a baixa institucionalização, a influência do poder Executivo no processo a partir de sua relação com os parlamentares e o uso das emendas parlamentares como estratégia eleitoral.

Partidos políticos e direito de oposição a Pirro

Art. 114º da Constituição da República Portuguesa: “1. Os partidos políticos participam nos órgãos baseados no sufrágio universal e directo, de acordo com a sua representatividade eleitoral. 2. É reconhecido às minorias o direito de oposição democrática, nos termos da Constituição e da lei. 3. Os partidos políticos representados na Assembleia da República e que não façam parte do Governo gozam, designadamente, do direito de serem informados regular e directamente pelo Governo sobre o andamento dos principais assuntos de interesse público, de igual direito gozando os partidos políticos representados nas Assembleias Legislativas das regiões autónomas e em quaisquer outras assembleias designadas por eleição directa relativamente aos correspondentes executivos de que não façam parte.”. § Article 114 of the Constitution of the Portuguese Republic. "1. Political parties shall participate in organs based on direct and universal suffrage, according to their electoral representation. 2. It is recognized minorities the right to democratic opposition, under the Constitution and the law. 3. Political parties represented in Parliament and not forming part of the Government shall, in particular, the right to be informed regularly and directly by the Government on the progress of the main matters of public interest, equal rights enjoying the political parties represented in Legislative Assemblies of the autonomous regions and any other assemblies formed through direct elections with respect to the corresponding executives who are not part. ".

Observations on the Brazilian presidency, democracy, and governance

This article presents the first results of research on the organization and administration of the Brazilian presidency and problems of democratic governance in Brazil. Biases of Euro-centrism in current views of presidentialism, democracy, governance, and representation are criticized and new comparative analysis of political experiences in the Americas called for. Initial analysis of the Brazilian presidency reveals a unique combination of executive-led electoral representation and muddling through governance since the transition from military rule.

Reelection incentives and political budget cycle: evidence from Brazil

This article tests the presence of political budget cycle (PBC) in municipal elections in Brazil and checks whether mayors who adopt such policy have greater probability of reelection. Based on fiscal and electoral data of 5,406 Brazilian municipalities and applying the difference-in-differences econometric method as well as logistic regressions, the results provide some evidence of PBC in Brazil, although its magnitude and consistency varies depending on the years used as electoral and non-electoral years. On average, reelectable mayors spend close to 3% more in election years than nonreelectables. Moreover, reelectables who do run for reelection present a variation in spending which is close to 5% superior to that of non-reelectables and non-runners. Additionally, the results suggest that mayors who increase public spending during electoral periods have greater chances of being reelected, as long as such spending is done within deficit limits acceptable by voters.

Accuracy of polls in Portugal

This study has a vast analysis, studying almost all the pre-electoral polls published or issued in Portugal in the month previous to each of the elections, since 1991 until the last one that took place in February 2005. The accuracy measures I used were adapted from the study carried out by Frederick Mosteller in the report to the Committee on Analysis of Pre-election Polls, regarding the USA elections of 1948.

EVIV: An end-to-end verifiable Internet voting system

Traditionally, a country's electoral system requires the voter to vote at a specific day and place, which conflicts with the mobility usually seen in modern live styles. Thus, the widespread of Internet (mobile) broadband access can be seen as an opportunity to deal with this mobility problem, i.e. the adoption of an Internet voting system can make the live of voter's much more convenient; however, a widespread Internet voting systems adoption relies on the ability to develop trustworthy systems, i.e. systems that are verifiable and preserve the voter's privacy. Building such a system is still an open research problem. Our contribution is a new Internet voting system: EVIV, a highly sound End-to-end Verifiable Internet Voting system, which offers full voter's mobility and preserves the voter's privacy from the vote casting PC even if the voter votes from a public PC, such as a PC at a cybercafe or at a public library. Additionally, EVIV has private vote verification mechanisms, in which the voter just has to perform a simple match of two small strings (4-5 alphanumeric characters), that detect and protect against vote manipulations both at the insecure vote client platform and at the election server side. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sustentabilidade das finanças locais

Dissertação de Mestrado em Ciências Económicas e Empresariais

Nominations across gender: An empirical investigation of Brazilian municipal elections

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics