Estimating the girth of fish by applying an elliptic model

A new method for estimating the maximum girth of roundfish is proposed as illustrated; this is based on an elliptic approximation of the cross sections of the fish body. Results derived from a small sample horse mackerel, Trachurus trachurus, suggest that maximum girth estimates based on the elliptic model are more precise than the values estimated by applying a conventional method.

Food conversion efficiency and the von Bertalanffy growth function 1: a modification of Pauly's model

A simple modification of Pauly's model for relating food conversion efficiency (K sub(1)) and body weight is proposed. The key parameter is an index to how efficiently food can be absorbed; the other parameter is related to the surface-limiting growth, an important component of von Bertalanff's and Pauly's theories of fish growth.

Food conversion efficiency and the von Bertalanffy growth function. Part II and conclusion: Extension of the new model to the generalized von Bertalanffy growth function

The simple model relating food conversion efficiency (K sub(1)) to body weight derived from the theoretical concepts behind von Bertalanffy's growth model, is extended here in the context of Pauly's generalization of that model. The exponent, which was fixed to 1/3 in the simple model, is in the extended model equivalent to 1-d, with d being the weight exponent of the anabolism term in Pauly's growth model. This makes the model applicable to fish for which the assumptions of the original (special) version of von Bertalanffy's growth model are violated.

Using wildlife activity and antibiotic resistance analysis to model bacterial water quality in coastal ponds

Models that help predict fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) levels in environmental waters can be important tools for resource managers. In this study, we used animal activity along with antibiotic resistance analysis (ARA), land cover, and other variables to build models that predict bacteria levels in coastal ponds that discharge into an estuary. Photographic wildlife monitoring was used to estimate terrestrial and aquatic wildlife activity prior to sampling. Increased duck activity was an important predictor of increased FCB in coastal ponds. Terrestrial animals like deer and raccoon, although abundant, were not significant in our model. Various land cover types, rainfall, tide, solar irradiation, air temperature, and season parameters, in combination with duck activity, were significant predictors of increased FCB. It appears that tidal ponds allow for settling of bacteria under most conditions. We propose that these models can be used to test different development styles and wildlife management techniques to reduce bacterial loading into downstream shellfish harvesting and contact recreation areas.

Wave forecasts associated with hurricane landfalls in the vicinity of Cape Lookout, North Carolina

Hurricanes can cause extensive damage to the coastline and coastal communities due to wind-generated waves and storm surge. While extensive modeling efforts have been conducted regarding storm surge, there is far less information about the effects of waves on these communities and ecosystems as storms make landfall. This report describes a preliminary use of NCCOS’ WEMo (Wave Exposure Model; Fonseca and Malhotra 2010) to compute the wind wave exposure within an area of approximately 25 miles radius from Beaufort, North Carolina for estuarine waters encompassing Bogue Sound, Back Sound and Core Sound during three hurricane landfall scenarios. The wind wave heights and energy of a site was a computation based on wind speed, direction, fetch and local bathymetry. We used our local area (Beaufort, North Carolina) as a test bed for this product because it is frequently impacted by hurricanes and we had confidence in the bathymetry data. Our test bed conditions were based on two recent Hurricanes that strongly affected this area. First, we used hurricane Isabel which made landfall near Beaufort in September 2003. Two hurricane simulations were run first by passing hurricane Isabel along its actual path (east of Beaufort) and second by passing the same storm to the west of Beaufort to show the potential effect of the reversed wind field. We then simulated impacts by a hurricane (Ophelia) with a different landfall track, which occurred in September of 2005. The simulations produced a geographic description of wave heights revealing the changing wind and wave exposure of the region as a consequence of landfall location and storm intensity. This highly conservative simulation (water levels were that of low tide) revealed that many inhabited and developed shorelines would receive wind waves for prolonged periods of time at heights far above that found during even the top few percent of non-hurricane events. The simulations also provided a sense for how rapidly conditions could transition from moderate to highly threatening; wave heights were shown to far exceed normal conditions often long before the main body of the storm arrived and importantly, at many locations that could impede and endanger late-fleeing vessels seeking safe harbor. When joined with other factors, such as storm surge and event duration, we anticipate that the WEMo forecasting tool will have significant use by local emergency agencies and the public to anticipate the relative exposure of their property arising as a function of storm location and may also be used by resource managers to examine the effects of storms in a quantitative fashion on local living marine resources.

El Niño reconstructions and confirmation of a pan-Californian model via Radiolarian evidence

Radiolarian number and/or flux rates extracted from Holocene and fossil sediments are used to help detect the presence of, type of (weak or strong), and exact location of the depocenter under an El Niño. These data, along with known provenances of certain radiolarians, support an earlier model that suggests a weak El Niño is a northern and coupled expression of a more southerly strong component dominated by eastern tropical Pacific water underlain by California current and gyre water.

Validation of a semi-Lagrangian, canonical regression model of climates in the southwestern United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): A local climate model (LCM) has been developed to simulate the modern and 18 ka climate of the southwestern United States. ... LCM solutions indicate summers were about 1°C cooler and winters 11°C cooler at 18 ka. Annual PREC increased 68% at 18 ka, with large increases in spring and fall PREC and diminished summer monsoonal PREC. ... Validation of simulations of 18 ka climate indicate general agreement with proxy estimates of climate for that time. However, the LCM estimates of summer temperatures are about 5 to 10°C higher than estimates from proxy reconstructions.

The Los Alamos General Circulation Model hydrologic cycle

As the global population has increased, so have human influences on the global environment. ... How can we better understand and predict these natural and potential anthropogenic variations? One way is to develop a model that can accurately describe all the components of the hydrologic cycle, rather than just the end result variables such as precipitation and soil moisture. If we can predict and simulate variations in evaporation and moisture convergence, as well as precipitation, then we will have greater confidence in our ability to at least model precipitation variations. Therefore, we describe here just how well we can model relevant aspects of the global hydrologic cycle. In particular, we determine how well we can model the annual and seasonal mean global precipitation, evaporation, and atmospheric water vapor transport.

A 139-year dendroclimatic cycle, cultural/environmental history, sunspots, and longer-term cycles

Higher resolution time-stratigraphic records suggest correlation of lower frequency paleoclimatic events with Milankovitch obliquity/precessional cycles and of higher frequency events with the evidently resonance-related Pettersson maximum tidal force (MTF) model. Subsequently published records, mainly pollen, seemingly confirm that atmospheric resonances may have modulated past climatic changes in phase with average MTF cycles of 1668, 1112, and 556 years, as calculated in anomalistic years from planetary movements by Stacey. Stacey accepts Pettersson's dating of AD 1433 (517 YBP) for the last major perihelian spring tide based solely on calculations of moon- and earth-orbital relations to the sun. Use of AD 1433 as an origin for the tidal resonance model seemingly continues to provide a best fit for the timing of cyclical patterns in the presented paleoclimate time series.

Addendum I: Paleoclimate and the Solar-Insolation/Tidal-Resonance Climate Model

Recent papers provide detailed analyses of more than 40 high-resolution time series culled from the extensive paleoclimate literature that appear to define cyclical elements of the Solar-Insolation/Tidal-Resonance Climate Model. This model was earlier referred to as the Milankovitch/Pettersson Climatic Theory. This paper provides comparable analyses of an additional 20 or so, evidently supportive, climate and volcanic time series. The tree-ring, historical, pollen, cultural, time-frequency, and hydrologic records range in length from 400 to 90,000 years and spatially from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego.

DEVELOPMENT OF MULTI-ANCHOR EARTH RETENTION SYSTEMS.

This paper discusses two projects, the first relating to tests on 'reinforced earth' conducted on the 1. 5 m radius centrifuge at U. M. I. S. T. and the second concerning a short pilot study on the T. R. R. L concept of 'anchored earth' carried out on the 5 m radius Cambridge Geotechnical Centrifuge. The paper proposes a role for centrifugal model testing in design evaluation, whether by the designer himself, his centrification authority, a rival patent holder, or a research worker.

Case study on a deep excavation in soft ground by centrifuge model tests

This paper provides a case study on the deepest excavation carried out so far in the construction of the metro network in Shanghai, which typically features soft ground. The excavation is 38 m deep with retaining walls 65 m deep braced by 9 levels of concrete props. To obtain a quick and rough prediction, two centrifuge model tests were conducted, in which one is for the 'standard' section with green field surrounding and the other with an adjacent piled building. The tests were carried out in a run-stop-excavation-run style, in which excavation was conducted manually. By analyzing the lateral wall displacement, ground deformation, bending moment and earth pressure, the test results are shown to be reasonably convincing and the design and construction were validated. Such industry orientated centrifuge modeling was shown to be useful in understanding the performance of geotechnical processes, especially when engineers lack relevant field experience. © 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, London.

Task-level control of the lateral leg spring model of cockroach locomotion

The Lateral Leg Spring model (LLS) was developed by Schmitt and Holmes to model the horizontal-plane dynamics of a running cockroach. The model captures several salient features of real insect locomotion, and demonstrates that horizontal plane locomotion can be passively stabilized by a well-tuned mechanical system, thus requiring minimal neural reflexes. We propose two enhancements to the LLS model. First, we derive the dynamical equations for a more flexible placement of the center of pressure (COP), which enables the model to capture the phase relationship between the body orientation and center-of-mass (COM) heading in a simpler manner than previously possible. Second, we propose a reduced LLS "plant model" and biologically inspired control law that enables the model to follow along a virtual wall, much like antenna-based wall following in cockroaches. © 2006 Springer.

Self-excited circumferential instabilities in a model annular gas turbine combustor: Global flame dynamics

In this paper the global flame dynamics of a model annular gas turbine combustor undergoing strong self-excited circumferential instabilities is presented. The combustor consisted of either 12, 15 or 18 turbulent premixed bluff-body flames arranged around an annulus of fixed circumference so that the effect of flame separation distance, S, on the global heat release dynamics could be investigated. Reducing S was found to produce both an increase in the resonant frequency and the limit-cycle amplitudes of pressure and heat release for the same equivalence ratio. The phase-averaged global heat release, obtained from high-speed OH- chemiluminescence imaging from above, showed that these changes are caused by large-scale modifications to the flame structure around the annulus. For the largest S studied (12 flame configuration) the azimuthal instability produced a helical-like global heat release structure for each flame. When S was decreased, large-scale merging or linking between adjacent flames occurred spanning approximately half of the annulus with the peak heat release concentrated at the outer annular wall. The circumferential nature of the instability was evident from both the pressure measurements and the phase-averaged OH- chemiluminescence showing the phase of the heat release on either side of the annulus to be ≈180°apart and spinning in the counter clockwise direction. Both spinning and standing modes were found but only spinning modes are considered in this paper. To the best of the authors knowledge, these are the first experiments to provide a phase-averaged picture of self-excited azimuthal instabilities in a laboratory-scale annular combustor relevant to gas turbines. © 2012 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An experimental study on engine dynamics model based in-cylinder pressure estimation

The information provided by the in-cylinder pressure signal is of great importance for modern engine management systems. The obtained information is implemented to improve the control and diagnostics of the combustion process in order to meet the stringent emission regulations and to improve vehicle reliability and drivability. The work presented in this paper covers the experimental study and proposes a comprehensive and practical solution for the estimation of the in-cylinder pressure from the crankshaft speed fluctuation. Also, the paper emphasizes the feasibility and practicality aspects of the estimation techniques, for the real-time online application. In this study an engine dynamics model based estimation method is proposed. A discrete-time transformed form of a rigid-body crankshaft dynamics model is constructed based on the kinetic energy theorem, as the basis expression for total torque estimation. The major difficulties, including load torque estimation and separation of pressure profile from adjacent-firing cylinders, are addressed in this work and solutions to each problem are given respectively. The experimental results conducted on a multi-cylinder diesel engine have shown that the proposed method successfully estimate a more accurate cylinder pressure over a wider range of crankshaft angles. Copyright © 2012 SAE International.