916 resultados para Dynamic Bayesian Networks
Resumo:
The tightening competition and increasing dynamism have created an emerging need for flexible asset management. This means that the changes of market demand should be responded to with adjustments in the amount of assets tied to the balance sheets of companies. On the other hand, industrial maintenance has recently experienced drastic changes, which have led to an increase in the number of maintenance networks (consisting of customer companies that buy maintenance services, as well as various supplier companies) and inter-organizational partnerships. However, the research on maintenance networks has not followed the changes in the industry. Instead, there is a growing need for new ways of collaboration between partnering companies to enhance the competitiveness of the whole maintenance network. In addition, it is more and more common for companies to pursue lean operations in their businesses. This thesis shows how flexible asset management can increase the profitability of maintenance companies and networks under dynamic operating conditions, and how the additional value can then be shared between the network partners. Firstly, I have conducted a systematic literature review to identify what kind of requirements for asset management models are set by the increasing dynamism. Then I have responded to these requirements by constructing an analytical model for flexible asset management, linking asset management to the profitability and financial state of a company. The thesis uses the model to show how flexible asset management can increase profitability in maintenance companies and networks, and how the created value can be shared in the networks to reach a win-win situation. The research indicates that the existing models for asset management are heterogeneous by nature due to the various definitions of ‘asset management’. I conclude that there is a need for practical asset management models which address assets comprehensively with an inter-organizational, strategic view. The comprehensive perspective, taking all kinds of asset types into account, is needed to integrate the research on asset management with the strategic management of companies and networks. I will show that maintenance companies can improve their profitability by increasing the flexibility of their assets. In maintenance networks, reorganizing the ownership of the assets among the different network partners can create additional value. Finally, I will introduce flexible asset management contracts for maintenance networks. These contracts address the value sharing related to reorganizing the ownership of assets according to the principles of win-win situations.
Resumo:
Background: Fashion is a dynamic and creative industry where larger retailers are enjoying international success. Small businesses however are struggling in the face of international expansion, as they lack the necessary resources and managerial know-how. The Finnish fashion industry has neither been able to develop the industry environment to support small and micro firms nor has Finland relevant finance or public domains, such as, seen in other Nordic countries. Networking has been recognized to facilitate organizational growth and international expansion in industries such as manufacturing and high technology. It has enabled smaller companies to gain resources, knowledge and experiences otherwise unattainable. Objective: The purpose of this study was to explore how networking has been utilized in the Finnish fashion industry. Particularly social relationships and networks are examined, as they emphasize the importance of individuals. Exploration on the past actions should also provide insight how networks and networking could be utilized and developed in the future. Main findings: It was discovered that the Finnish fashion industry (social) network is rather dense. This was mainly due to the small size of the Finnish market. In the early years of the establishment of the company, close contacts seemed to be utilized. As a company expands and extends its business, the relationships tended to move towards more utilitarian in nature. However, in some cases, the long term relationships had also affectionate features, such as trust and commitment. International networking was found to have positive impact on business opportunities. Participation to events, such as trade shows, was perceived as one of the best ways to meet new international contacts and to develop ones network. Active networking in the Finnish market, however, created both domestic and international opportunities. Furthermore, cooperation and open communication were discovered to facilitate innovation and projects. The public sector seemed to lack the interest in supporting the fashion industry according to the interviewees. The major issues for the fashion industry still concerned, among others, funding, administrative guidance and public support for developing the industry as a whole.
Resumo:
This thesis concerns the analysis of epidemic models. We adopt the Bayesian paradigm and develop suitable Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. This is done by considering an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, former Zaïre, 1995 as a case of SEIR epidemic models. We model the Ebola epidemic deterministically using ODEs and stochastically through SDEs to take into account a possible bias in each compartment. Since the model has unknown parameters, we use different methods to estimate them such as least squares, maximum likelihood and MCMC. The motivation behind choosing MCMC over other existing methods in this thesis is that it has the ability to tackle complicated nonlinear problems with large number of parameters. First, in a deterministic Ebola model, we compute the likelihood function by sum of square of residuals method and estimate parameters using the LSQ and MCMC methods. We sample parameters and then use them to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. From the sampled chain from the posterior, we test the convergence diagnostic and confirm the viability of the model. The results show that the Ebola model fits the observed onset data with high precision, and all the unknown model parameters are well identified. Second, we convert the ODE model into a SDE Ebola model. We compute the likelihood function using extended Kalman filter (EKF) and estimate parameters again. The motivation of using the SDE formulation here is to consider the impact of modelling errors. Moreover, the EKF approach allows us to formulate a filtered likelihood for the parameters of such a stochastic model. We use the MCMC procedure to attain the posterior distributions of the parameters of the SDE Ebola model drift and diffusion parts. In this thesis, we analyse two cases: (1) the model error covariance matrix of the dynamic noise is close to zero , i.e. only small stochasticity added into the model. The results are then similar to the ones got from deterministic Ebola model, even if methods of computing the likelihood function are different (2) the model error covariance matrix is different from zero, i.e. a considerable stochasticity is introduced into the Ebola model. This accounts for the situation where we would know that the model is not exact. As a results, we obtain parameter posteriors with larger variances. Consequently, the model predictions then show larger uncertainties, in accordance with the assumption of an incomplete model.
Resumo:
The purpose of this qualitative research is to study how international new ventures change internally during initial internationalization. Based on the analysis of seven INV firms, a framework illustrating this change process, will be developed. This research will also develop earlier theories, and create a solid combination of existing theories to explain the phenomenon. INV firms internationalize more rapidly and aggressively than traditional MNEs. At the same, external and internal drivers cause changes in INVs culture, resources, capabilities, strategic management, and output decisions inside the company. Organizational learning and resource acquisition through international business networks explain how INVs are able to cope with the dynamic high-technology industry and be able to adapt. Internationalization of INVs proceeds through several phases, which may be gone through rapidly due to the network effects and INVs’ special characteristics. The results of this research revealed that INVs internal change process proceeds through four phases; pre-incorporation phase, product development phase, internationalization and growth phase, and maturation phase. INVs culture, resources, capabilities, strategic management, and outputs change significantly during initial internationalization, and INVs develop from small start-ups into fully established companies.
Resumo:
This study presents an understanding of how a U.S. based, international MBA school has been able to achieve competitive advantage within a relatively short period of time. A framework is built to comprehend how the dynamic capability and value co-creation theories are connected and to understand how the dynamic capabilities have enabled value co-creation to happen between the school and its students, leading to such competitive advantage for the school. The data collection method followed a qualitative single-case study with a process perspective. Seven semi-structured interviews were made in September and October of 2015; one current employee of the MBA school was interviewed, with the other six being graduates and/or former employees of the MBA school. In addition, the researcher has worked as a recruiter at the MBA school, enabling to build bridges and a coherent whole of the empirical findings. Data analysis was conducted by first identifying themes from interviews, after which a narrative was written and a causal network model was built. Thus, a combination of thematic analysis, narrative and grounded theory were used as data analysis methods. This study finds that value co-creation is enabled by the dynamic capabilities of the MBA school; also capabilities would not be dynamic if value co-creation did not take place. Thus, this study presents that even though the two theories represent different level analyses, they are intertwined and together they can help to explain competitive advantage. The MBA case school’s dynamic capabilities are identified to be the sales & marketing capabilities and international market creation capabilities, thus the study finds that the MBA school does not only co-create value with existing students (customers) in the school setting, but instead, most of the value co-creation happens between the school and the student cohorts (network) already in the recruiting phase. Therefore, as a theoretical implication, the network should be considered as part of the context. The main value created seem to lie in the MBA case school’s international setting & networks. MBA schools around the world can learn from this study; schools should try to find their own niche and specialize, based on their own values and capabilities. With a differentiating focus and a unique and practical content, the schools can and should be well-marketed and proactively sold in order to receive more student applications and enhance competitive advantage. Even though an MBA school can effectively be treated as a business, as the study shows, the main emphasis should still be on providing quality education. Good content with efficient marketing can be the winning combination for an MBA school.
Resumo:
This thesis examines management of business relationships during conflicts. The context of this study is the international political conflict which started in 2013 and is still affecting international trade relations in 2016. More specifically, this study researches the effects of the conflict in Finnish-Russian trade. The research aim is to identify the implications of a political conflict in the Finnish-Russian business relationships and networks. Furthermore, the study will explore how does a company adapt or overcome the challenges and barriers posed by the international business environment. This research combines relevant theories in management of business relationships and networks in order to review the research data through a critical research frame. The theoretical frameworks are different structures of business relationship development processes, various stages of interaction, and characteristics and functions of business relationships. Moreover, this study will examine the effect of interdependency, commitment and trust in trade relations. Also, what are the important exchange processes and how do these processes affect business relationship and overall performance of joint business operations. Qualitative single case study method was used in this research. Case company was a Finnish multinational company. To understand the changes, the data was collected and analysed through process research approach by pattern-matching and drawing temporal bracketing over two different periods of time, first period in years 2011-2013 and second period in years 2014-2016. Empirical data was collected through a semi-structured interview and additional data was collected from internal and external secondary data sources. The findings of the study confirmed the relationship between trade and conflict. However, the effects are not significant for a company in grocery retail industry which has had earlier experience in Russia and has managed its business relationships and operations effectively. Macroeconomic factors affect companies operating in foreign dynamic markets and in order to sustain changes and to adapt, companies should invest in their business relationships. Trust-based relationships and a higher level of commitment allow companies to have more efficient and beneficial outcomes before and during uncertainty. Furthermore, well-maintained and coordinated business relationships provide the ability to adapt and overcome challenges during uncertainty. Such relationships have information, financial and social exchange processes which allow the partnering firms to have successful business relationship management in dynamic market environments.
Resumo:
Complex networks have recently attracted a significant amount of research attention due to their ability to model real world phenomena. One important problem often encountered is to limit diffusive processes spread over the network, for example mitigating pandemic disease or computer virus spread. A number of problem formulations have been proposed that aim to solve such problems based on desired network characteristics, such as maintaining the largest network component after node removal. The recently formulated critical node detection problem aims to remove a small subset of vertices from the network such that the residual network has minimum pairwise connectivity. Unfortunately, the problem is NP-hard and also the number of constraints is cubic in number of vertices, making very large scale problems impossible to solve with traditional mathematical programming techniques. Even many approximation algorithm strategies such as dynamic programming, evolutionary algorithms, etc. all are unusable for networks that contain thousands to millions of vertices. A computationally efficient and simple approach is required in such circumstances, but none currently exist. In this thesis, such an algorithm is proposed. The methodology is based on a depth-first search traversal of the network, and a specially designed ranking function that considers information local to each vertex. Due to the variety of network structures, a number of characteristics must be taken into consideration and combined into a single rank that measures the utility of removing each vertex. Since removing a vertex in sequential fashion impacts the network structure, an efficient post-processing algorithm is also proposed to quickly re-rank vertices. Experiments on a range of common complex network models with varying number of vertices are considered, in addition to real world networks. The proposed algorithm, DFSH, is shown to be highly competitive and often outperforms existing strategies such as Google PageRank for minimizing pairwise connectivity.
Resumo:
In this thesis we study the properties of two large dynamic networks, the competition network of advertisers on the Google and Bing search engines and the dynamic network of friend relationships among avatars in the massively multiplayer online game (MMOG) Planetside 2. We are particularly interested in removal patterns in these networks. Our main finding is that in both of these networks the nodes which are most commonly removed are minor near isolated nodes. We also investigate the process of merging of two large networks using data captured during the merger of servers of Planetside 2. We found that the original network structures do not really merge but rather they get gradually replaced by newcomers not associated with the original structures. In the final part of the thesis we investigate the concept of motifs in the Barabási-Albert random graph. We establish some bounds on the number of motifs in this graph.
Resumo:
This paper employs the one-sector Real Business Cycle model as a testing ground for four different procedures to estimate Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The procedures are: 1 ) Maximum Likelihood, with and without measurement errors and incorporating Bayesian priors, 2) Generalized Method of Moments, 3) Simulated Method of Moments, and 4) Indirect Inference. Monte Carlo analysis indicates that all procedures deliver reasonably good estimates under the null hypothesis. However, there are substantial differences in statistical and computational efficiency in the small samples currently available to estimate DSGE models. GMM and SMM appear to be more robust to misspecification than the alternative procedures. The implications of the stochastic singularity of DSGE models for each estimation method are fully discussed.
Resumo:
Cette thèse étudie des modèles de séquences de haute dimension basés sur des réseaux de neurones récurrents (RNN) et leur application à la musique et à la parole. Bien qu'en principe les RNN puissent représenter les dépendances à long terme et la dynamique temporelle complexe propres aux séquences d'intérêt comme la vidéo, l'audio et la langue naturelle, ceux-ci n'ont pas été utilisés à leur plein potentiel depuis leur introduction par Rumelhart et al. (1986a) en raison de la difficulté de les entraîner efficacement par descente de gradient. Récemment, l'application fructueuse de l'optimisation Hessian-free et d'autres techniques d'entraînement avancées ont entraîné la recrudescence de leur utilisation dans plusieurs systèmes de l'état de l'art. Le travail de cette thèse prend part à ce développement. L'idée centrale consiste à exploiter la flexibilité des RNN pour apprendre une description probabiliste de séquences de symboles, c'est-à-dire une information de haut niveau associée aux signaux observés, qui en retour pourra servir d'à priori pour améliorer la précision de la recherche d'information. Par exemple, en modélisant l'évolution de groupes de notes dans la musique polyphonique, d'accords dans une progression harmonique, de phonèmes dans un énoncé oral ou encore de sources individuelles dans un mélange audio, nous pouvons améliorer significativement les méthodes de transcription polyphonique, de reconnaissance d'accords, de reconnaissance de la parole et de séparation de sources audio respectivement. L'application pratique de nos modèles à ces tâches est détaillée dans les quatre derniers articles présentés dans cette thèse. Dans le premier article, nous remplaçons la couche de sortie d'un RNN par des machines de Boltzmann restreintes conditionnelles pour décrire des distributions de sortie multimodales beaucoup plus riches. Dans le deuxième article, nous évaluons et proposons des méthodes avancées pour entraîner les RNN. Dans les quatre derniers articles, nous examinons différentes façons de combiner nos modèles symboliques à des réseaux profonds et à la factorisation matricielle non-négative, notamment par des produits d'experts, des architectures entrée/sortie et des cadres génératifs généralisant les modèles de Markov cachés. Nous proposons et analysons également des méthodes d'inférence efficaces pour ces modèles, telles la recherche vorace chronologique, la recherche en faisceau à haute dimension, la recherche en faisceau élagué et la descente de gradient. Finalement, nous abordons les questions de l'étiquette biaisée, du maître imposant, du lissage temporel, de la régularisation et du pré-entraînement.
Resumo:
The proliferation of wireless sensor networks in a large spectrum of applications had been spurered by the rapid advances in MEMS(micro-electro mechanical systems )based sensor technology coupled with low power,Low cost digital signal processors and radio frequency circuits.A sensor network is composed of thousands of low cost and portable devices bearing large sensing computing and wireless communication capabilities. This large collection of tiny sensors can form a robust data computing and communication distributed system for automated information gathering and distributed sensing.The main attractive feature is that such a sensor network can be deployed in remote areas.Since the sensor node is battery powered,all the sensor nodes should collaborate together to form a fault tolerant network so as toprovide an efficient utilization of precious network resources like wireless channel,memory and battery capacity.The most crucial constraint is the energy consumption which has become the prime challenge for the design of long lived sensor nodes.
Resumo:
In wireless sensor networks, the routing algorithms currently available assume that the sensor nodes are stationary. Therefore when mobility modulation is applied to the wireless sensor networks, most of the current routing algorithms suffer from performance degradation. The path breaks in mobile wireless networks are due to the movement of mobile nodes, node failure, channel fading and shadowing. It is desirable to deal with dynamic topology changes with optimal effort in terms of resource and channel utilization. As the nodes in wireless sensor medium make use of wireless broadcast to communicate, it is possible to make use of neighboring node information to recover from path failure. Cooperation among the neighboring nodes plays an important role in the context of routing among the mobile nodes. This paper proposes an enhancement to an existing protocol for accommodating node mobility through neighboring node information while keeping the utilization of resources to a minimum.
Resumo:
In Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN), neglecting the effects of varying channel quality can lead to an unnecessary wastage of precious battery resources and in turn can result in the rapid depletion of sensor energy and the partitioning of the network. Fairness is a critical issue when accessing a shared wireless channel and fair scheduling must be employed to provide the proper flow of information in a WSN. In this paper, we develop a channel adaptive MAC protocol with a traffic-aware dynamic power management algorithm for efficient packet scheduling and queuing in a sensor network, with time varying characteristics of the wireless channel also taken into consideration. The proposed protocol calculates a combined weight value based on the channel state and link quality. Then transmission is allowed only for those nodes with weights greater than a minimum quality threshold and nodes attempting to access the wireless medium with a low weight will be allowed to transmit only when their weight becomes high. This results in many poor quality nodes being deprived of transmission for a considerable amount of time. To avoid the buffer overflow and to achieve fairness for the poor quality nodes, we design a Load prediction algorithm. We also design a traffic aware dynamic power management scheme to minimize the energy consumption by continuously turning off the radio interface of all the unnecessary nodes that are not included in the routing path. By Simulation results, we show that our proposed protocol achieves a higher throughput and fairness besides reducing the delay
Resumo:
In wireless sensor networks, the routing algorithms currently available assume that the sensor nodes are stationary. Therefore when mobility modulation is applied to the wireless sensor networks, most of the current routing algorithms suffer from performance degradation. The path breaks in mobile wireless networks are due to the movement of mobile nodes, node failure, channel fading and shadowing. It is desirable to deal with dynamic topology changes with optimal effort in terms of resource and channel utilization. As the nodes in wireless sensor medium make use of wireless broadcast to communicate, it is possible to make use of neighboring node information to recover from path failure. Cooperation among the neighboring nodes plays an important role in the context of routing among the mobile nodes. This paper proposes an enhancement to an existing protocol for accommodating node mobility through neighboring node information while keeping the utilization of resources to a minimum.
Resumo:
Clustering combined with multihop communication is a promising solution to cope with the energy requirements of large scale Wireless Sensor Networks. In this work, a new cluster based routing protocol referred to as Energy Aware Cluster-based Multihop (EACM) Routing Protocol is introduced, with multihop communication between cluster heads for transmitting messages to the base station and direct communication within clusters. We propose EACM with both static and dynamic clustering. The network is partitioned into near optimal load balanced clusters by using a voting technique, which ensures that the suitability of a node to become a cluster head is determined by all its neighbors. Results show that the new protocol performs better than LEACH on network lifetime and energy dissipation