958 resultados para Disease outbreaks. epidemiologic methods. Spatial Analysis. Epidemics.


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BACKGROUND The combined inhibition of BRAF and MEK is hypothesized to improve clinical outcomes in patients with melanoma by preventing or delaying the onset of resistance observed with BRAF inhibitors alone. This randomized phase 3 study evaluated the combination of the BRAF inhibitor vemurafenib and the MEK inhibitor cobimetinib. METHODS We randomly assigned 495 patients with previously untreated unresectable locally advanced or metastatic BRAF V600 mutation-positive melanoma to receive vemurafenib and cobimetinib (combination group) or vemurafenib and placebo (control group). The primary end point was investigator-assessed progression-free survival. RESULTS The median progression-free survival was 9.9 months in the combination group and 6.2 months in the control group (hazard ratio for death or disease progression, 0.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.68; P<0.001). The rate of complete or partial response in the combination group was 68%, as compared with 45% in the control group (P<0.001), including rates of complete response of 10% in the combination group and 4% in the control group. Progression-free survival as assessed by independent review was similar to investigator-assessed progression-free survival. Interim analyses of overall survival showed 9-month survival rates of 81% (95% CI, 75 to 87) in the combination group and 73% (95% CI, 65 to 80) in the control group. Vemurafenib and cobimetinib was associated with a nonsignificantly higher incidence of adverse events of grade 3 or higher, as compared with vemurafenib and placebo (65% vs. 59%), and there was no significant difference in the rate of study-drug discontinuation. The number of secondary cutaneous cancers decreased with the combination therapy. CONCLUSIONS The addition of cobimetinib to vemurafenib was associated with a significant improvement in progression-free survival among patients with BRAF V600-mutated metastatic melanoma, at the cost of some increase in toxicity. (Funded by F. Hoffmann-La Roche/Genentech; coBRIM ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01689519.).

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Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an emerging health concern in both developed and non-developed world, encompassing from simple steatosis to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis and liver cancer. Incidence and prevalence of this disease are increasing due to the socioeconomic transition and change to harmful diet. Currently, gold standard method in NAFLD diagnosis is liver biopsy, despite complications and lack of accuracy due to sampling error. Further, pathogenesis of NAFLD is not fully understood, but is well-known that obesity, diabetes and metabolic derangements played a major role in disease development and progression. Besides, gut microbioma and host genetic and epigenetic background could explain considerable interindividual variability. Knowledge that epigenetics, heritable events not caused by changes in DNA sequence, contribute to development of diseases has been a revolution in the last few years. Recently, evidences are accumulating revealing the important role of epigenetics in NAFLD pathogenesis and in NASH genesis. Histone modifications, changes in DNA methylation and aberrant profiles or microRNAs could boost development of NAFLD and transition into clinical relevant status. PNPLA3 genotype GG has been associated with a more progressive disease and epigenetics could modulate this effect. The impact of epigenetic on NAFLD progression could deserve further applications on therapeutic targets together with future non-invasive methods useful for the diagnosis and staging of NAFLD.

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BACKGROUND Obesity is positively associated with colorectal cancer. Recently, body size subtypes categorised by the prevalence of hyperinsulinaemia have been defined, and metabolically healthy overweight/obese individuals (without hyperinsulinaemia) have been suggested to be at lower risk of cardiovascular disease than their metabolically unhealthy (hyperinsulinaemic) overweight/obese counterparts. Whether similarly variable relationships exist for metabolically defined body size phenotypes and colorectal cancer risk is unknown. METHODS AND FINDINGS The association of metabolically defined body size phenotypes with colorectal cancer was investigated in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Metabolic health/body size phenotypes were defined according to hyperinsulinaemia status using serum concentrations of C-peptide, a marker of insulin secretion. A total of 737 incident colorectal cancer cases and 737 matched controls were divided into tertiles based on the distribution of C-peptide concentration amongst the control population, and participants were classified as metabolically healthy if below the first tertile of C-peptide and metabolically unhealthy if above the first tertile. These metabolic health definitions were then combined with body mass index (BMI) measurements to create four metabolic health/body size phenotype categories: (1) metabolically healthy/normal weight (BMI < 25 kg/m2), (2) metabolically healthy/overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2), (3) metabolically unhealthy/normal weight (BMI < 25 kg/m2), and (4) metabolically unhealthy/overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2). Additionally, in separate models, waist circumference measurements (using the International Diabetes Federation cut-points [≥80 cm for women and ≥94 cm for men]) were used (instead of BMI) to create the four metabolic health/body size phenotype categories. Statistical tests used in the analysis were all two-sided, and a p-value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. In multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression models with BMI used to define adiposity, compared with metabolically healthy/normal weight individuals, we observed a higher colorectal cancer risk among metabolically unhealthy/normal weight (odds ratio [OR] = 1.59, 95% CI 1.10-2.28) and metabolically unhealthy/overweight (OR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.01-1.94) participants, but not among metabolically healthy/overweight individuals (OR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.65-1.42). Among the overweight individuals, lower colorectal cancer risk was observed for metabolically healthy/overweight individuals compared with metabolically unhealthy/overweight individuals (OR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.49-0.96). These associations were generally consistent when waist circumference was used as the measure of adiposity. To our knowledge, there is no universally accepted clinical definition for using C-peptide level as an indication of hyperinsulinaemia. Therefore, a possible limitation of our analysis was that the classification of individuals as being hyperinsulinaemic-based on their C-peptide level-was arbitrary. However, when we used quartiles or the median of C-peptide, instead of tertiles, as the cut-point of hyperinsulinaemia, a similar pattern of associations was observed. CONCLUSIONS These results support the idea that individuals with the metabolically healthy/overweight phenotype (with normal insulin levels) are at lower colorectal cancer risk than those with hyperinsulinaemia. The combination of anthropometric measures with metabolic parameters, such as C-peptide, may be useful for defining strata of the population at greater risk of colorectal cancer.

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Background: Several studies have shown that treatment with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) can reduce coronary heart disease (CHD) rates. However, the cost effectiveness of statin treatment in the primary prevention of CHD has not been fully established. Objective: To estimate the costs of CHD prevention using statins in Switzerland according to different guidelines, over a 10-year period. Methods: The overall 10-year costs, costs of one CHD death averted, and of 1 year without CHD were computed for the European Society of Cardiology (ESC), the International Atherosclerosis Society (IAS), and the US Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) guidelines. Sensitivity analysis was performed by varying number of CHD events prevented and costs of treatment. Results: Using an inflation rate of medical costs of 3%, a single yearly consultation, a single total cholesterol measurement per year, and a generic statin, the overall 10-year costs of the ESC, IAS, and ATP-III strategies were 2.2, 3.4, and 4.1 billion Swiss francs (SwF [SwF1 = $US0.97]). In this scenario, the average cost for 1 year of life gained was SwF352, SwF421, and SwF485 thousand, respectively, and it was always higher in women than in men. In men, the average cost for 1 year of life without CHD was SwF30.7, SwF42.5, and SwF51.9 thousand for the ESC, IAS, and ATP-III strategies, respectively, and decreased with age. Statin drug costs represented between 45% and 68% of the overall preventive cost. Changing the cost of statins, inflation rates, or number of fatal and non-fatal cases of CHD averted showed ESC guidelines to be the most cost effective. Conclusion: The cost of CHD prevention using statins depends on the guidelines used. The ESC guidelines appear to yield the lowest costs per year of life gained free of CHD.

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Background: We have recently shown that the median diagnostic delay to establish Crohn's disease (CD) diagnosis (i.e. the period from first symptom onset to diagnosis) in the Swiss IBD Cohort (SIBDC) was 9 months. Seventy five percent of all CD patients were diagnosed within 24 months. The clinical impact of a long diagnostic delay on the natural history of CD is unknown. Aim: To compare the frequency and type of CD-related complications in the patient groups with long diagnostic delay (>24 months) vs. the ones diagnosed within 24 months. Methods: Retrospective analysis of data from the SIBDCS, comprising a large sample of CD patients followed in hospitals and private practices across Switzerland. The proportions of the following outcomes were compared between groups of patients diagnosed 1, 2-5, 6-10, 11-15, and ≥ 16 years ago and stratified according to the length of diagnostic delay: bowel stenoses, internal fistulas, perianal fistulas, CD-related surgical interventions, and extraintestinal manifestations. Results: Two hundred CD patients (121 female, mean age 44.9 ± 15.0 years, 38% smokers, 71% ever treated with immunomodulators and 35% with anti-TNF) with long diagnostic delay were compared to 697 CD patients (358 female, mean age 39.1 ± 14.9 years, 33% smokers, 74% ever treated with immunomodulators and 33% with anti-TNF) diagnosed within 24 months. No differences in the outcomes were observed between the two patient groups within year one after CD diagnosis. Among those diagnosed 2-5 years ago, CD patients with long diagnostic delay (n = 45) presented more frequently with internal fistulas (11.1% vs. 3.1%, p = 0.03) and bowel stenoses (28.9% vs. 15.7%, p = 0.05), and they more frequently underwent CD-related operations (15.6% vs. 5.0%, p = 0.02) compared to the patients diagnosed within 24 months (n = 159). Among those diagnosed 6-10 years ago, CD patients with long diagnostic delay (n = 48) presented more frequently with extraintestinal manifestations (60.4% vs. 34.6%, p = 0.001) than those diagnosed within 24 months (n = 182). For the patients diagnosed 11-15 years ago, no differences in outcomes were found between the long diagnostic delay group (n = 106) and the one diagnosed within 24 months (n = 32). Among those diagnosed ≥ 16 years ago, the group with long diagnostic delay (n = 71) more frequently underwent CD-related operations (63.4% vs. 46.5%, p = 0.01) compared to the group diagnosed with CD within 24 months (n = 241). Conclusions: A long diagnostic delay in CD patients is associated with a more complicated disease course and higher number of CD-related operations in the years following the diagnosis. Our results indicate that efforts should be undertaken to shorten the diagnostic delay in CD patients in order to reduce the risk for progression towards a complicated disease phenotype.

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Spatial evaluation of Culicidae (Diptera) larvae from different breeding sites: application of a geospatial method and implications for vector control. This study investigates the spatial distribution of urban Culicidae and informs entomological monitoring of species that use artificial containers as larval habitats. Collections of mosquito larvae were conducted in the São Paulo State municipality of Santa Bárbara d' Oeste between 2004 and 2006 during house-to-house visits. A total of 1,891 samples and nine different species were sampled. Species distribution was assessed using the kriging statistical method by extrapolating municipal administrative divisions. The sampling method followed the norms of the municipal health services of the Ministry of Health and can thus be adopted by public health authorities in disease control and delimitation of risk areas. Moreover, this type of survey and analysis can be employed for entomological surveillance of urban vectors that use artificial containers as larval habitat.

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OBJECTIVE: To set-up an international cohort of patients suspected with Behçet's disease (BD). The cohort is aimed at defining an algorithm for definition of the disease in children. METHODS: International experts have defined the inclusion criteria as follows: recurrent oral aphthosis (ROA) plus one of following-genital ulceration, erythema nodosum, folliculitis, pustulous/acneiform lesions, positive pathergy test, uveitis, venous/arterial thrombosis and family history of BD. Onset of disease is <16 years, disease duration is ≤3 years, future follow-up duration is ≥4 years and informed consent is obtained. The expert committee has classified the included patients into: definite paediatric BD (PED-BD), probable PED-BD and no PED-BD. Statistical analysis is performed to compare the three groups of patients. Centres document their patients into a single database. RESULTS: At January 2010, 110 patients (56 males/54 females) have been included. Mean age at first symptom: 8.1 years (median 8.2 years). At inclusion, 38% had only one symptom associated with ROA, 31% had two and 31% had three or more symptoms. A total of 106 first evaluations have been done. Seventeen patients underwent the first-year evaluation, and 36 had no new symptoms, 12 had one and 9 had two. Experts have examined 48 files and classified 30 as definite and 18 as probable. Twenty-six patients classified as definite fulfilled the International Study Group criteria. Seventeen patients classified as probable did not meet the international criteria. CONCLUSION: The expert committee has classified the majority of patients in the BD group although they presented with few symptoms independently of BD classification criteria.

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Practical guidelines for monitoring and measuring compounds such as jasmonates, ketols, ketodi(tri)enes and hydroxy-fatty acids as well as detecting the presence of novel oxylipins are presented. Additionally, a protocol for the penetrant analysis of non-enzymatic lipid oxidation is described. Each of the methods, which employ gas chromatography/mass spectrometry, can be applied without specialist knowledge or recourse to the latest analytical instrumentation. Additional information on oxylipin quantification and novel protocols for preparing oxygen isotope-labelled internal standards are provided. Four developing areas of research are identified: (i) profiling of the unbound cellular pools of oxylipins; (ii) profiling of esterified oxylipins and/or monitoring of their release from parent lipids; (iii) monitoring of non-enzymatic lipid oxidation; (iv) analysis of unstable and reactive oxylipins. The methods and protocols presented herein are designed to give technical insights into the first three areas and to provide a platform from which to enter the fourth area.

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Staphylococcus aureus, especially when it is methicillin resistant, has been recognised as a major cause of nosocomial and community-acquired infections. It has also been shown that certain strains were able to cause clonal epidemics whereas others showed a more incidental occurrence. On the basis of this behavioural distinction, a genetic feature underlying this difference in epidemicity can be assumed. Understanding the difference will not only contribute to the development of markers for the identification of epidemic strains but will also shed light on the evolution of clones. Genomes of strains from two independent collections (n=18 and n=10 strains) were analysed. Both collections were composed of carefully selected, genetically diverse strains with clinically well-defined epidemic and sporadic behaviour. Comparative genome hybridisation (CGH) was performed using an Agilent array for one collection (up to 11 probes per open reading frame - ORF), and an Affymetrix array for the other (up to 30 probes per ORF). Presence and absence information of probe homologues and ORFs was taken for analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) at the strain and behaviour levels. Not a single probe showed 100% concordant differences between epidemic and sporadic strains. Moreover, probe differences between groups were always smaller than those within groups. This was also true, when the analysis was focussed on presence versus absence of ORF's or when probe information was transformed into allelic profiles. These findings present strong evidence against the presence or absence of a single common specific genetic factor differentiating epidemic from sporadic S. aureus clones.

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OBJECTIVE(S): To investigate the relationship between detection of HIV drug resistance by 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy and the subsequent risk of progression to AIDS and death. DESIGN: Virological failure was defined as experiencing two consecutive viral loads of more than 400 copies/ml in the time window between 0.5 and 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy (baseline). Patients were grouped according to evidence of virological failure and whether there was detection of the International AIDS Society resistance mutations to one, two or three drug classes in the time window. METHODS: Standard survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-fixed covariates defined at baseline was employed. RESULTS: We studied 8229 patients in EuroSIDA who started antiretroviral therapy and who had at least 2 years of clinical follow-up. We observed 829 AIDS events and 571 deaths during 38,814 person-years of follow-up resulting in an overall incidence of new AIDS and death of 3.6 per 100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI):3.4-3.8]. By 96 months from baseline, the proportion of patients with a new AIDS diagnosis or death was 20.3% (95% CI:17.7-22.9) in patients with no evidence of virological failure and 53% (39.3-66.7) in those with virological failure and mutations to three drug classes (P = 0.0001). An almost two-fold difference in risk was confirmed in the multivariable analysis (adjusted relative hazard = 1.8, 95% CI:1.2-2.7, P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Although this study shows an association between the detection of resistance at failure and risk of clinical progression, further research is needed to clarify whether resistance reflects poor adherence or directly increases the risk of clinical events via exhaustion of drug options.

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Background: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease remains an important cause of morbidity after kidney transplantation and has been associated with acute rejection, graft loss and other indirect effects. A 3-month course of VGC prophylaxis reduces the incidence of CMV disease. However, little is known about the indirect effects of lateonset CMV disease after VGC prophylaxis. Objective: To evaluate the impact and indirect consequences of late-onset CMV disease after VGC prophylaxis in kidney transplant recipients. Methods: Retrospective analysis of 61 consecutive adult kidney transplant recipient with positive CMV serology (donor or recipient) who received VGC prophylaxis for 3 months and completed a follow-up of at least 2 years post-transplantation. Patients who developed CMV disease within 1 year after transplantation were compared to CMV disease-free patients for renal function (plasma creatinine values) at 1, 6, 12 and 24 months and for the incidence of graft loss, acute rejection, diabetes, cancer and opportunistic infections. Results: 8/61 (13%) patients developed CMV disease at a median of 131 days after transplantation (range: 98-220). The CMV incidence in D+/R- high risk patients was 6/18 (33%), while it was 2/43 (5%) in intermediate-risk patients (p < 0.01). All 8 patients were treated by oral valganciclovir (median 39 days; range: 19-119) with a complete resolution of CMV disease. As shown in the figure, there was no difference in creatinine values between the two groups at any time during follow-up. There was no graft loss, and the incidence of acute rejection, cancer and opportunistic infections did not differ between the two groups. The incidence of post-transplant diabetes was higher (38% vs 15%) in patients with CMV disease, but this difference was not significant (p = 0.4). Conclusions: An incidence of 13% of late-onset CMV disease was observed despite 3 months VGC prophylaxis. However, no indirect consequences were found. Moreover, therapy of CMV disease by oral VGC was effective and safe. Larger trials are needed to study whether late-onset CMV disease is associated with indirect consequences, as described with early-onset CMV.

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BACKGROUND: The proportion of adults with positive varicella serology is lower in populations from tropical countries. Therefore immigrants to countries with a temperate climate are at risk of acquiring varicella infection during adulthood. METHODS: We tested two different strategies to prevent varicella outbreaks in housing facilities for asylum seekers arriving in the Canton of Vaud, Switzerland. The first strategy consisted of a rapid response with isolation of the affected individuals and vaccination of the susceptible contacts. The second strategy consisted of a general vaccination upon arrival of all asylum seekers aged 15-39 years with no history of chickenpox. RESULTS: From May 2008 to January 2009 we applied the rapid response strategy. Eight hundred and fifty-eight asylum seekers arrived in the Canton and an attack rate of 2.8% (seven cases among 248 exposed asylum seekers) was observed. The mean cost was US$ 31.35 per asylum seeker. The general vaccination strategy was applied from February 2009 to May 2010, a period during which 966 asylum seekers were registered. This second strategy completely prevented any outbreak at a mean cost of US$ 83.85 per asylum seeker. CONCLUSIONS: Of the two analyzed interventions to prevent varicella outbreaks in housing facilities for asylum seekers, the general vaccination strategy was more effective, more sustainable, and ethically preferable, although more costly.

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of spatial statistical analysis in the selection of genotypes in a plant breeding program and, particularly, to demonstrate the benefits of the approach when experimental observations are not spatially independent. The basic material of this study was a yield trial of soybean lines, with five check varieties (of fixed effect) and 110 test lines (of random effects), in an augmented block design. The spatial analysis used a random field linear model (RFML), with a covariance function estimated from the residuals of the analysis considering independent errors. Results showed a residual autocorrelation of significant magnitude and extension (range), which allowed a better discrimination among genotypes (increase of the power of statistical tests, reduction in the standard errors of estimates and predictors, and a greater amplitude of predictor values) when the spatial analysis was applied. Furthermore, the spatial analysis led to a different ranking of the genetic materials, in comparison with the non-spatial analysis, and a selection less influenced by local variation effects was obtained.

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Background: We have recently shown that the median diagnostic delay to establish Crohn's disease (CD) diagnosis in the Swiss IBD Cohort (SIBDC) was 9 months. Seventy five percent of all CD patients were diagnosed within 24 months. The clinical impact of a long diagnostic delay on the natural history of CD is unknown. Aim: To compare the frequency and type of CD-related complications in the patient groups with long diagnostic delay (>24 months) vs. the ones diagnosed within 24 months. Methods: Retrospective analysis of data from the SIBDCS, comprising a large sample of CD patients followed in hospitals and private practices across Switzerland. Results: Two hundred CD patients (121 female, mean age 44.9 ± 15.0 years, 38% smokers, 71% ever treated with immunomodulators and 35% with anti-TNF) with long diagnostic delay were compared to 697 CD patients (358 female, mean age 39.1 ± 14.9 years, 33% smokers, 74% ever treated with immunomodulators and 33% with anti-TNF) diagnosed within 24 months. No differences in the outcomes were observed between the two patient groups within year one after CD diagnosis. Among those diagnosed 2-5 years ago, CD patients with long diagnostic delay (n = 45) presented more frequently with internal fistulas (11.1% vs. 3.1%, p = 0.03) and bowel stenoses (28.9% vs. 15.7%, p = 0.05), and they more frequently underwent CD-related operations (15.6% vs. 5.0%, p = 0.02) compared to the patients diagnosed within 24 months (n = 159). Among those diagnosed 6-10 years ago, CD patients with long diagnostic delay (n = 48) presented more frequently with extraintestinal manifestations (60.4% vs. 34.6%, p = 0.001) than those diagnosed within 24 months (n = 182). For the patients diagnosed 11-15 years ago, no differences in outcomes were found between the long diagnostic delay group (n = 106) and the one diagnosed within 24 months (n = 32). Among those diagnosed >= 16 years ago, the group with long diagnostic delay (n = 71) more frequently underwent CD-related operations (63.4% vs. 46.5%, p = 0.01) compared to the group diagnosed with CD within 24 months (n = 241). Conclusions: A long diagnostic delay in CD patients is associated with a more complicated disease course and higher number of CD-related operations in the years following the diagnosis. Our results indicate that efforts should be undertaken to shorten the diagnostic delay in CD patients in order to reduce the risk for progression towards a complicated disease phenotype.