Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

A coupled model for carbon and radiocarbon evolution during the last deglaciation, link to model results

Changes in the ventilation of the Southern Ocean are thought to play an important role on deglacial carbon and radiocarbon evolution, but have not been tested within a coupled climate-carbon model. Here, we present such a simulation based on a simple scenario of transient deglacial sinking of brines - sea-ice salt rejections - around Antarctica, which modulates Southern Ocean ventilation. This experiment is able to reproduce deglacial atmospheric changes in carbon and radiocarbon but also ocean radiocarbon records measured in the Atlantic, Southern and Pacific Oceans. Simulated for the first time in a fully coupled climate-carbon model including radiocarbon, our modeling results suggest that the deglacial changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and radiocarbon were achieved by means of a breakdown in the glacial brine-induced stratification of the Southern Ocean.

Adaptation to enemy shifts: rapid resistance evolution to local Vibrio spp. in invasive Pacific oysters

One hypothesis for the success of invasive species is reduced pathogen burden, resulting from a release from infections or high immunological fitness (low immunopathology) of invaders. Despite of strong selection exerted on the host, the evolutionary response of invaders to newly acquired pathogens has rarely been considered. The two independent and genetically distinct invasions of the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas into the North Sea represent an ideal model system to study fast evolutionary responses of invasive populations. By exposing both invasion sources to ubiquitous and phylogenetically diverse pathogens (Vibrio spp.) we demonstrate that within a few generations hosts adapted to sympatric pathogen communities. However, this local adaptation only became apparent in selective environments, i.e. at elevated temperatures reflecting patterns of disease outbreaks in natural populations. Resistance against sympatric and allopatric Vibrio spp. strains was dominantly inherited in crosses between both invasion sources, resulting in an overall higher resistance of admixed individuals than pure lines. Therefore we suggest that a simple genetic resistance mechanism of the host is matched to a common virulence mechanism shared by local Vibrio strains. This combination might have facilitated a fast evolutionary response that can explain another dimension of why invasive species can be so successful in newly invaded ranges.

Evolvable 2D computing matrix model for intrinsic evolution in commercial FPGAs with native reconfiguration support

This paper addresses the modelling and validation of an evolvable hardware architecture which can be mapped on a 2D systolic structure implemented on commercial reconfigurable FPGAs. The adaptation capabilities of the architecture are exercised to validate its evolvability. The underlying proposal is the use of a library of reconfigurable components characterised by their partial bitstreams, which are used by the Evolutionary Algorithm to find a solution to a given task. Evolution of image noise filters is selected as the proof of concept application. Results show that computation speed of the resulting evolved circuit is higher than with the Virtual Reconfigurable Circuits approach, and this can be exploited on the evolution process by using dynamic reconfiguration

Decomposition driven interface evolution for layers of binary mixtures: I. Model dirivation and base states

A dynamical model is proposed to describe the coupled decomposition and profile evolution of a free surfacefilm of a binary mixture. An example is a thin film of a polymer blend on a solid substrate undergoing simultaneous phase separation and dewetting. The model is based on model-H describing the coupled transport of the mass of one component (convective Cahn-Hilliard equation) and momentum (Navier-Stokes-Korteweg equations) supplemented by appropriate boundary conditions at the solid substrate and the free surface. General transport equations are derived using phenomenological nonequilibrium thermodynamics for a general nonisothermal setting taking into account Soret and Dufour effects and interfacial viscosity for the internal diffuse interface between the two components. Focusing on an isothermal setting the resulting model is compared to literature results and its base states corresponding to homogeneous or vertically stratified flat layers are analyzed.

Decomposition driven interface evolution for layers of binary mixtures: I. Model dirivation and base states

Algebraic topology (homology) is used to analyze the state of spiral defect chaos in both laboratory experiments and numerical simulations of Rayleigh-Bénard convection. The analysis reveals topological asymmetries that arise when non-Boussinesq effects are present. The asymmetries are found in different flow fields in the simulations and are robust to substantial alterations to flow visualization conditions in the experiment. However, the asymmetries are not observable using conventional statistical measures. These results suggest homology may provide a new and general approach for connecting spatiotemporal observations of chaotic or turbulent patterns to theoretical models.

First 20 years of DNDC: Model evolution and GRAMP.

The DNDC (DeNitrification and DeComposition) model was first developed by Li et al. (1992) as a rain event-driven process-orientated simulation model for nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and nitrogen gas emissions from the agricultural soils in the U.S. Over the last 20 years, the model has been modified and adapted by various research groups around the world to suit specific purposes and circumstances. The Global Research Alliance Modelling Platform (GRAMP) is a UK-led initiative for the establishment of a purposeful and credible web-based platform initially aimed at users of the DNDC model. With the aim of improving the predictions of soil C and N cycling in the context of climate change the objectives of GRAMP are to: 1) to document the existing versions of the DNDC model; 2) to create a family tree of the individual DNDC versions; 3) to provide information on model use and development; and 4) to identify strengths, weaknesses and potential improvements for the model.

Technology transfer of renewable energy for rural development: historical evolution and lessons of experience from the model WWP

Technology transfer (TT) in the area of renewable energy (RE) throughout history has been an important tool for rural development (RD). Initially, the TT has been conceptualized as the purchase or donation of machinery from first world countries - without any consideration of staff training and contextual conditions for the adaptation of technology to the needs of the country. Various researches have revealed the existence of different approaches to planning the TT of RE, demonstrating the high complexity of projects from the social and contextual dimension. This paper addresses the conceptual evolution of the TT of RE for RD, examining its different periods considered for three criteria: historical events occurred, the role of stakeholders and changing objectives for the TT of RE for RD. For the conceptual analysis of changes the model Working With People (WWP) is used for planning and project management of high social complexity in RD. The analysis defines the existence of four historical periods in the TT of RE and synthesizes the lessons of experience from the three dimensions (ethical-social, technical-entrepreneurial, and political-contextual) of the WWP model.

An ICT-based closed-loop model to improve care for heart failure patients

Durante las últimas décadas se ha producido un fenómeno global de envejecimiento en la población. Esta tendencia se puede observar prácticamente en todos los países del mundo y se debe principalmente a los avances en la medicina, y a los descensos en las tasas de fertilidad y mortalidad. El envejecimiento de la población tiene un gran impacto en la salud de los ciudadanos, y a menudo es la causa de aparición de enfermedades crónicas. Este tipo de enfermedades supone una amenaza y una carga importantes para la sociedad, especialmente en aspectos como la mortalidad o los gastos en los sistemas sanitarios. Entre las enfermedades cardiovasculares, la insuficiencia cardíaca es probablemente la condición con mayor prevalencia y afecta a 23-26 millones de personas en todo el mundo. Normalmente, la insuficiencia cardíaca presenta un mal pronóstico y una tasa de supervivencia bajas, en algunos casos peores que algún tipo de cáncer. Además, suele ser la causa de hospitalizaciones frecuentes y es una de las enfermedades más costosas para los sistemas sanitarios. La tendencia al envejecimiento de la población y la creciente incidencia de las enfermedades crónicas están llevando a una situación en la que los sistemas de salud no son capaces de hacer frente a la demanda de la sociedad. Los servicios de salud existentes tendrán que adaptarse para ser efectivos y sostenibles en el futuro. Es necesario identificar nuevos paradigmas de cuidado de pacientes, así como mecanismos para la provisión de servicios que ayuden a transformar estos sistemas sanitarios. En este contexto, esta tesis se plantea la búsqueda de soluciones, basadas en las Tecnologías de la Información y la Comunicación (TIC), que contribuyan a realizar la transformación en los sistemas sanitarios. En concreto, la tesis se centra en abordar los problemas de una de las enfermedades con mayor impacto en estos sistemas: la insuficiencia cardíaca. Las siguientes hipótesis constituyen la base para la realización de este trabajo de investigación: 1. Es posible definir un modelo basado en el paradigma de lazo cerrado y herramientas TIC que formalice el diseño de mejores servicios para pacientes con insuficiencia cardíaca. 2. El modelo de lazo cerrado definido se puede utilizar para definir un servicio real que ayude a gestionar la insuficiencia cardíaca crónica. 3. La introducción, la adopción y el uso de un servicio basado en el modelo definido se traducirá en mejoras en el estado de salud de los pacientes que sufren insuficiencia cardíaca. a. La utilización de un sistema basado en el modelo de lazo cerrado definido mejorará la experiencia del usuario de los pacientes. La definición del modelo planteado se ha basado en el estándar ISO / EN 13940- Sistema de conceptos para dar soporte a la continuidad de la asistencia. Comprende un conjunto de conceptos, procesos, flujos de trabajo, y servicios como componentes principales, y representa una formalización de los servicios para los pacientes con insuficiencia cardíaca. Para evaluar el modelo definido se ha definido un servicio real basado en el mismo, además de la implementación de un sistema de apoyo a dicho servicio. El diseño e implementación de dicho sistema se realizó siguiendo la metodología de Diseño Orientado a Objetivos. El objetivo de la evaluación consistía en investigar el efecto que tiene un servicio basado en el modelo de lazo cerrado sobre el estado de salud de los pacientes con insuficiencia cardíaca. La evaluación se realizó en el marco de un estudio clínico observacional. El análisis de los resultados ha comprendido métodos de análisis cuantitativos y cualitativos. El análisis cuantitativo se ha centrado en determinar el estado de salud de los pacientes en base a datos objetivos (obtenidos en pruebas de laboratorio o exámenes médicos). Para realizar este análisis se definieron dos índices específicos: el índice de estabilidad y el índice de la evolución del estado de salud. El análisis cualitativo ha evaluado la autopercepción del estado de salud de los pacientes en términos de calidad de vida, auto-cuidado, el conocimiento, la ansiedad y la depresión, así como niveles de conocimiento. Se ha basado en los datos recogidos mediante varios cuestionarios o instrumentos estándar (i.e. EQ-5D, la Escala de Ansiedad y Depresión (HADS), el Cuestionario de Cardiomiopatía de Kansas City (KCCQ), la Escala Holandesa de Conocimiento de Insuficiencia Cardíaca (DHFKS), y la Escala Europea de Autocuidado en Insuficiencia Cardíaca (EHFScBS), así como cuestionarios dedicados no estandarizados de experiencia de usuario. Los resultados obtenidos en ambos análisis, cuantitativo y cualitativo, se compararon con el fin de evaluar la correlación entre el estado de salud objetivo y subjetivo de los pacientes. Los resultados de la validación demostraron que el modelo propuesto tiene efectos positivos en el cuidado de los pacientes con insuficiencia cardíaca y contribuye a mejorar su estado de salud. Asimismo, ratificaron al modelo como instrumento válido para la definición de servicios mejorados para la gestión de esta enfermedad. ABSTRACT During the last decades we have witnessed a global aging phenomenon in the population. This can be observed in practically every country in the world, and it is mainly caused by the advances in medicine, and the decrease of mortality and fertility rates. Population aging has an important impact on citizens’ health and it is often the cause for chronic diseases, which constitute global burden and threat to the society in terms of mortality and healthcare expenditure. Among chronic diseases, Chronic Heart Failure (CHF) or Heart Failure (HF) is probably the one with highest prevalence, affecting between 23 and 26 million people worldwide. Heart failure is a chronic, long-term and serious condition with very poor prognosis and worse survival rates than some type of cancers. Additionally, it is often the cause of frequent hospitalizations and one of the most expensive conditions for the healthcare systems. The aging trends in the population and the increasing incidence of chronic diseases are leading to a situation where healthcare systems are not able to cope with the society demand. Current healthcare services will have to be adapted and redefined in order to be effective and sustainable in the future. There is a need to find new paradigms for patients’ care, and to identify new mechanisms for services’ provision that help to transform the healthcare systems. In this context, this thesis aims to explore new solutions, based on ICT, that contribute to achieve the needed transformation within the healthcare systems. In particular, it focuses on addressing the problems of one of the diseases with higher impact within these systems: Heart Failure. The following hypotheses represent the basis to the elaboration of this research: 1. It is possible to define a model based on a closed-loop paradigm and ICT tools that formalises the design of enhanced healthcare services for chronic heart failure patients. 2. The described closed-loop model can be exemplified in a real service that supports the management of chronic heart failure disease. 3. The introduction, adoption and use of a service based on the outlined model will result in improvements in the health status of patients suffering heart failure. 4. The user experience of patients when utilizing a system based on the defined closed-loop model will be enhanced. The definition of the closed-loop model for health care support of heart failure patients have been based on the standard ISO/EN 13940 System of concepts to support continuity of care. It includes a set of concept, processes and workflows, and services as main components, and it represent a formalization of services for heart failure patients. In order to be validated, the proposed closed-loop model has been instantiated into a real service and a supporting IT system. The design and implementation of the system followed the user centred design methodology Goal Oriented Design. The validation, that included an observational clinical study, aimed to investigate the effect that a service based on the closed-loop model had on heart failure patients’ health status. The analysis of results comprised quantitative and qualitative analysis methods. The quantitative analysis was focused on determining the health status of patients based on objective data (obtained in lab tests or physical examinations). Two specific indexes where defined and considered in this analysis: the stability index and the health status evolution index. The qualitative analysis assessed the self-perception of patients’ health status in terms of quality of life, self-care, knowledge, anxiety and depression, as well as knowledge levels. It was based on the data gathered through several standard instruments (i.e. EQ-5D, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire, the Dutch Heart Failure Knowledge Scale, and the European Heart Failure Self-care Behaviour Scale) as well as dedicated non-standardized user experience questionnaires. The results obtained in both analyses, quantitative and qualitative, were compared in order to assess the correlation between the objective and subjective health status of patients. The results of the validation showed that the proposed model contributed to improve the health status of the patients and had a positive effect on the patients’ care. It also proved that the model is a valid instrument for designing enhanced healthcare services for heart failure patients.

Nonlinear analysis of a simple model of temperature evolution in a satellite

We analyze a simple model of the heat transfer to and from a small satellite orbiting round a solar system planet. Our approach considers the satellite isothermal, with external heat input from the environment and from internal energy dissipation, and output to the environment as black-body radiation. The resulting nonlinear ordinary differential equation for the satellite’s temperature is analyzed by qualitative, perturbation and numerical methods, which prove that the temperature approaches a periodic pattern (attracting limit cycle). This approach can occur in two ways, according to the values of the parameters: (i) a slow decay towards the limit cycle over a time longer than the period, or (ii) a fast decay towards the limit cycle over a time shorter than the period. In the first case, an exactly soluble average equation is valid. We discuss the consequences of our model for the thermal stability of satellites.

A yeast model for the study of Batten disease

Although the CLN3 gene for Batten disease, the most common inherited neurovisceral storage disease of childhood, was identified in 1995, the function of the corresponding protein still remains elusive. We previously cloned the Saccharomyces cerevisiae homologue to the human CLN3 gene, designated BTN1, which is not essential and whose product is 39% identical and 59% similar to Cln3p. We report that btn1-Δ deletion yeast strains are more resistant to d-(−)-threo-2-amino-1-[p-nitrophenyl]-1,3-propanediol (denoted ANP), a phenotype that is complemented in yeast by the human CLN3 gene. Furthermore, the severity of Batten disease in humans and the degree of ANP resistance in yeast are related when the equivalent amino acid replacements in Cln3p and Btn1p are compared. These results indicate that yeast can be used as a model for the study of Batten disease.

Intrastriatal injection of an adenoviral vector expressing glial-cell-line-derived neurotrophic factor prevents dopaminergic neuron degeneration and behavioral impairment in a rat model of Parkinson disease

Glial-cell-line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) is a potent neurotrophic factor for adult nigral dopamine neurons in vivo. GDNF has both protective and restorative effects on the nigro-striatal dopaminergic (DA) system in animal models of Parkinson disease. Appropriate administration of this factor is essential for the success of its clinical application. Since it cannot cross the blood–brain barrier, a gene transfer method may be appropriate for delivery of the trophic factor to DA cells. We have constructed a recombinant adenovirus (Ad) encoding GDNF and injected it into rat striatum to make use of its ability to infect neurons and to be retrogradely transported by DA neurons. Ad-GDNF was found to drive production of large amounts of GDNF, as quantified by ELISA. The GDNF produced after gene transfer was biologically active: it increased the survival and differentiation of DA neurons in vitro. To test the efficacy of the Ad-mediated GDNF gene transfer in vivo, we used a progressive lesion model of Parkinson disease. Rats received injections unilaterally into their striatum first of Ad and then 6 days later of 6-hydroxydopamine. We found that mesencephalic nigral dopamine neurons of animals treated with the Ad-GDNF were protected, whereas those of animals treated with the Ad-β-galactosidase were not. This protection was associated with a difference in motor function: amphetamine-induced turning was much lower in animals that received the Ad-GDNF than in the animals that received Ad-β-galactosidase. This finding may have implications for the development of a treatment for Parkinson disease based on the use of neurotrophic factors.

Genetic definition of a protein-splicing domain: Functional mini-inteins support structure predictions and a model for intein evolution

Inteins are protein-splicing elements, most of which contain conserved sequence blocks that define a family of homing endonucleases. Like group I introns that encode such endonucleases, inteins are mobile genetic elements. Recent crystallography and computer modeling studies suggest that inteins consist of two structural domains that correspond to the endonuclease and the protein-splicing elements. To determine whether the bipartite structure of inteins is mirrored by the functional independence of the protein-splicing domain, the entire endonuclease component was deleted from the Mycobacterium tuberculosis recA intein. Guided by computer modeling studies, and taking advantage of genetic systems designed to monitor intein function, the 440-aa Mtu recA intein was reduced to a functional mini-intein of 137 aa. The accuracy of splicing of several mini-inteins was verified. This work not only substantiates structure predictions for intein function but also supports the hypothesis that, like group I introns, mobile inteins arose by an endonuclease gene invading a sequence encoding a small, functional splicing element.

Apolipoprotein E is essential for amyloid deposition in the APPV717F transgenic mouse model of Alzheimer's disease

We quantified the amount of amyloid β-peptide (Aβ) immunoreactivity as well as amyloid deposits in a large cohort of transgenic mice overexpressing the V717F human amyloid precursor protein (APPV717F+/− TG mice) with no, one, or two mouse apolipoprotein E (Apoe) alleles at various ages. Remarkably, no amyloid deposits were found in any brain region of APPV717F+/− Apoe−/− TG mice as old as 22 mo of age, whereas age-matched APPV717F +/− Apoe+/− and Apoe+/+ TG mice display abundant amyloid deposition. The amount of Aβ immunoreactivity in the hippocampus was also markedly reduced in an Apoe gene dose-dependent manner (Apoe+/+ > Apoe+/− ≫ Apoe−/−), and no Aβ immunoreactivity was detected in the cerebral cortex of APPV717F+/− Apoe−/− TG mice at any of the time points examined. The absence of apolipoprotein E protein (apoE) dramatically reduced the amount of both Aβ1–40 and Aβ1–42 immunoreactive deposits as well as the resulting astrogliosis and microgliosis normally observed in APPV717F TG mice. ApoE immunoreactivity was detected in a subset of Aβ immunoreactive deposits and in virtually all thioflavine-S-fluorescent amyloid deposits. Because the absence of apoE alters neither the transcription or translation of the APPV717F transgene nor its processing to Aβ peptide(s), we postulate that apoE promotes both the deposition and fibrillization of Aβ, ultimately affecting clearance of protease-resistant Aβ/apoE aggregates. ApoE appears to play an essential role in amyloid deposition in brain, one of the neuropathological hallmarks of Alzheimer's disease.

A transgenic mouse model with an inducible skin blistering disease phenotype

One of the current limitations of gene transfer protocols involving mammalian genomes is the lack of spatial and temporal control over the desired gene manipulation. Starting from a human keratin gene showing a complex regulation as a template, we identified regulatory sequences that confer inducible gene expression in a subpopulation of keratinocytes in stratified epithelia of adult transgenic mice. We used this cassette to produce transgenic mice with an inducible skin blistering phenotype mimicking a form of epidermolytic hyperkeratosis, a keratin gene disorder. Upon induction by topical application of a phorbol ester, the mutant keratin transgene product accumulates in the differentiating layers of epidermis, leading to keratinocyte lysis after application of mechanical trauma. This mouse model will allow for a better understanding of the complex relationship between keratin mutation, keratinocyte cytoarchitecture, and hypersensitivity to trauma. The development of an inducible expression vector showing an exquisite cellular specificity has important implications for manipulating genes in a spatially and temporally controlled fashion in transgenic mice, and for the design of gene therapy strategies using skin as a tissue source for the controlled delivery of foreign substances.