Probabilistic methods for seasonal forecasting in a changing climate: Cox-type regression models.

For climate risk management, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) are an important source of information. They are ideally suited to compare probabilistic forecasts of primary (e.g. rainfall) or secondary data (e.g. crop yields). Summarised as CDFs, such forecasts allow an easy quantitative assessment of possible, alternative actions. Although the degree of uncertainty associated with CDF estimation could influence decisions, such information is rarely provided. Hence, we propose Cox-type regression models (CRMs) as a statistical framework for making inferences on CDFs in climate science. CRMs were designed for modelling probability distributions rather than just mean or median values. This makes the approach appealing for risk assessments where probabilities of extremes are often more informative than central tendency measures. CRMs are semi-parametric approaches originally designed for modelling risks arising from time-to-event data. Here we extend this original concept beyond time-dependent measures to other variables of interest. We also provide tools for estimating CDFs and surrounding uncertainty envelopes from empirical data. These statistical techniques intrinsically account for non-stationarities in time series that might be the result of climate change. This feature makes CRMs attractive candidates to investigate the feasibility of developing rigorous global circulation model (GCM)-CRM interfaces for provision of user-relevant forecasts. To demonstrate the applicability of CRMs, we present two examples for El Ni ? no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based forecasts: the onset date of the wet season (Cairns, Australia) and total wet season rainfall (Quixeramobim, Brazil). This study emphasises the methodological aspects of CRMs rather than discussing merits or limitations of the ENSO-based predictors.

O livro ��� um recurso transversal

Disserta����o de Mestrado, Educa����o Pr��-Escolar, Escola Superior de Educa����o e Comunica����o, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Lideran��a e coes��o dos graduados instruendos no curso de Comandos

Este Trabalho de Investiga����o Aplicada incidiu sobre a ���Lideran��a e Coes��o dos Graduados Instruendos no Curso de Comandos���, cujo objetivo principal �� a caracteriza����o dos n��veis de Lideran��a e Coes��o durante as v��rias fases do Curso de Comandos. Para a realiza����o deste estudo, foi feita uma interven����o em cada fase do Curso de Comandos (Est��gio inicial, Fase Individual, Fase de Equipa, Fase de Grupo) com um Question��rio de Compet��ncias de Lideran��a com seis dimens��es de Lideran��a e tr��s fatores crit��rio (Rouco, 2012) inerentes �� a����o de comando e, um Question��rio do Ambiente no Grupo com quatro aspetos (Carron, 1985). Estes Question��rios foram aplicados a todos os Graduados Instruendos, Oficiais e Sargentos, que frequentaram o 124�� Curso de Comandos, 1�� Turno de 2015. Com base nas respostas, foi efetuado o tratamento dos dados num programa estat��stico Statistical Package for Social Sciences. Os graduados instruendos no Curso de Comandos obtiveram comportamentos de lideran��a com valores m��dios mais elevados nas dimens��es associadas �� rela����o com as pessoas. A m��dia com valores mais elevados regista-se na dimens��o ���Coes��o, trabalho de equipa e coopera����o���. Acrescenta-se o facto de que, os graduados instruendos, entre a fase inicial e a fase final, mostram grande vontade de cumprir a miss��o, grande capacidade de tomada de decis��o e planeamento e desenvolver a coes��o nos grupos. Os graduados instruendos, de um modo geral, percecionam que os n��veis de coes��o aumentaram desde a segunda fase at�� �� ��ltima fase. Apesar da enorme queda de valores entre a primeira fase e a segunda fase, os valores na ��ltima fase s��o t��o elevados que para al��m de compensarem a queda, atingem um limite superior a nove em todos os aspetos da coes��o. Conclui-se que os graduados instruendos se sentem em todos os momentos, envolvidos com a intera����o, as tarefas, a produtividade e os objetivos do grupo. De um modo geral, os comportamentos dos graduados instruendos ���Gest��o de Conflitos��� e ���Lideran��a Participativa e Envolvimento��� ao longo do curso de comandos contribuem para os tr��s fatores crit��rio. A capacidade dos graduados instruendos em tomar decis��es com coragem e confian��a em qualquer situa����o, a capacidade de avaliarem o ambiente externo e interno do grupo e a capacidade de influenciar e motivar atrav��s do exemplo, relaciona-se com a capacidade de obterem desempenhos superiores, com a compet��ncia adequada de estabelecer a capacidade de organiza����o e motiva����o e, ainda, satisfazer o grupo em todo o curso. Podemos dizer que, de todas as fases do curso de comandos, a fase individual �� a que apresenta os valores mais baixos nas dimens��es da lideran��a, fatores crit��rio e aspetos da coes��o. Isto porque n��o existe pr��tica de comando por parte do graduado instruendo, o que n��o permite a pr��tica de lideran��a, e como nesta fase n��o existe equipa definida nem grupo, o graduado anda sozinho, o que n��o permite promover a coes��o. Na ��ltima fase, a Fase de Grupo, todos os graduados instruendos trabalham pela primeira vez em conjunto, obtendo os valores mais elevados da coes��o.

The use of computer technology to compare and analyze community college dissertations

A purpose of this research study was to demonstrate the practical linguistic study and evaluation of dissertations by using two examples of the latest technology, the microcomputer and optical scanner. That involved developing efficient methods for data entry plus creating computer algorithms appropriate for personal, linguistic studies. The goal was to develop a prototype investigation which demonstrated practical solutions for maximizing the linguistic potential of the dissertation data base. The mode of text entry was from a Dest PC Scan 1000 Optical Scanner. The function of the optical scanner was to copy the complete stack of educational dissertations from the Florida Atlantic University Library into an I.B.M. XT microcomputer. The optical scanner demonstrated its practical value by copying 15,900 pages of dissertation text directly into the microcomputer. A total of 199 dissertations or 72% of the entire stack of education dissertations (277) were successfully copied into the microcomputer's word processor where each dissertation was analyzed for a variety of syntax frequencies. The results of the study demonstrated the practical use of the optical scanner for data entry, the microcomputer for data and statistical analysis, and the availability of the college library as a natural setting for text studies. A supplemental benefit was the establishment of a computerized dissertation corpus which could be used for future research and study. The final step was to build a linguistic model of the differences in dissertation writing styles by creating 7 factors from 55 dependent variables through principal components factor analysis. The 7 factors (textual components) were then named and described on a hypothetical construct defined as a continuum from a conversational, interactional style to a formal, academic writing style. The 7 factors were then grouped through discriminant analysis to create discriminant functions for each of the 7 independent variables. The results indicated that a conversational, interactional writing style was associated with more recent dissertations (1972-1987), an increase in author's age, females, and the department of Curriculum and Instruction. A formal, academic writing style was associated with older dissertations (1972-1987), younger authors, males, and the department of Administration and Supervision. It was concluded that there were no significant differences in writing style due to subject matter (community college studies) compared to other subject matter. It was also concluded that there were no significant differences in writing style due to the location of dissertation origin (Florida Atlantic University, University of Central Florida, Florida International University).

Automatic Counting of Microglial Cells in Healthy and Glaucomatous Mouse Retinas

Proliferation of microglial cells has been considered a sign of glial activation and a hallmark of ongoing neurodegenerative diseases. Microglia activation is analyzed in animal models of different eye diseases. Numerous retinal samples are required for each of these studies to obtain relevant data of statistical significance. Because manual quantification of microglial cells is time consuming, the aim of this study was develop an algorithm for automatic identification of retinal microglia. Two groups of adult male Swiss mice were used: age-matched controls (na��ve, n = 6) and mice subjected to unilateral laser-induced ocular hypertension (lasered; n = 9). In the latter group, both hypertensive eyes and contralateral untreated retinas were analyzed. Retinal whole mounts were immunostained with anti Iba-1 for detecting microglial cell populations. A new algorithm was developed in MATLAB for microglial quantification; it enabled the quantification of microglial cells in the inner and outer plexiform layers and evaluates the area of the retina occupied by Iba-1+ microglia in the nerve fiber-ganglion cell layer. The automatic method was applied to a set of 6,000 images. To validate the algorithm, mouse retinas were evaluated both manually and computationally; the program correctly assessed the number of cells (Pearson correlation R = 0.94 and R = 0.98 for the inner and outer plexiform layers respectively). Statistically significant differences in glial cell number were found between na��ve, lasered eyes and contralateral eyes (P<0.05, na��ve versus contralateral eyes; P<0.001, na��ve versus lasered eyes and contralateral versus lasered eyes). The algorithm developed is a reliable and fast tool that can evaluate the number of microglial cells in na��ve mouse retinas and in retinas exhibiting proliferation. The implementation of this new automatic method can enable faster quantification of microglial cells in retinal pathologies.

Insights into the mechanisms of eukaryotic translation gained with ribosome profiling

The development of Ribosome Profiling (RiboSeq) has revolutionized functional genomics. RiboSeq is based on capturing and sequencing of the mRNA fragments enclosed within the translating ribosome and it thereby provides a �� snapshot�� of ribosome positions at the transcriptome wide level. Although the method is predominantly used for analysis of differential gene expression and discovery of novel translated ORFs, the RiboSeq data can also be a rich source of information about molecular mechanisms of polypeptide synthesis and translational control. This review will focus on how recent findings made with RiboSeq have revealed important details of the molecular mechanisms of translation in eukaryotes. These include mRNA translation sensitivity to drugs affecting translation initiation and elongation, the roles of upstream ORFs in response to stress, the dynamics of elongation and termination as well as details of intrinsic ribosome behavior on the mRNA after translation termination. As the RiboSeq method is still at a relatively early stage we will also discuss the implications of RiboSeq artifacts on data interpretation.

Analysis of the high-resolution ro-vibrational spectrum of DC3N in the far and mid infrared regions

Cyanoacetylene HC3N is a molecule of great astronomical importance and it has been observed in many interstellar environments. Its deuterated form DC3N has been detected in number of sources from external galaxies to Galactic interstellar clouds, star-forming regions and planetary atmospheres. All these detections relied on previous laboratory investigations, which however still lack some essential information concerning its infrared spectrum. In this project, high-resolution ro-vibrational spectra of DC3N have been recorded in two energy regions: 150 ��� 450 cm-1 and 1800 ��� 2800 cm-1. In the first window the ��7��� GS, 2��7 ��� ��7, ��5 ��� ��7, ��5+��7 ��� 2��7, ��6+��7 ��� 2v7, 4��7 ��� 2��7 bands have been assigned, while in the second region the three stretching fundamental bands ��1, ��2, ��3 have been observed and analysed. The 150 ��� 450 cm-1 region spectra have been recorded at the AILES beamline at the SOLEIL synchrotron (France), the 1800 ��� 2800 cm-1 spectra at the Department of Industrial Chemistry ���Toso Montanari��� in Bologna. In total, 2299 transitions have been assigned. Such experimental transition, together with data previously recorded for DC3N, were included in a least-squares fitting procedure from which several spectroscopic parameters have been determined with high precision and accuracy. They include rotational, vibrational and resonance constants. The spectroscopic data of DC3N have been included in a line catalog for this molecule in order to assist future astronomical observations and data interpretation. A paper which includes this research work has been published (M. Melosso, L. Bizzocchi, A. Adamczyk, E. Cane, P. Caselli, L. Colzid, L. Dorea, B. M. Giulianob, J.-C. Guillemine, M-A. Martin-Drumel, O. Piralif, A. Pietropolli Charmet , D. Prudenzano, V. M. Rivillad, F. Tamassia, Extensive ro-vibrational analysis of deuterated-cyanoacetylene (DC3N) from millimeter wavelengths to the infrared domain, Jour. of Quant. Spectr. and Rad. Tran. 254, 107221, 2020).

Integrating structural variant calling, annotation and prioritization into whole genome analysis workflows: a practical application in the molecular diagnosis of neurodevelopmental disorders

Background: WGS is increasingly used as a first-line diagnostic test for patients with rare genetic diseases such as neurodevelopmental disorders (NDD). Clinical applications require a robust infrastructure to support processing, storage and analysis of WGS data. The identification and interpretation of SVs from WGS data also needs to be improved. Finally, there is a need for a prioritization system that enables downstream clinical analysis and facilitates data interpretation. Here, we present the results of a clinical application of WGS in a cohort of patients with NDD. Methods: We developed highly portable workflows for processing WGS data, including alignment, quality control, and variant calling of SNVs and SVs. A benchmark analysis of state-of-the-art SV detection tools was performed to select the most accurate combination for SV calling. A gene-based prioritization system was also implemented to support variant interpretation. Results: Using a benchmark analysis, we selected the most accurate combination of tools to improve SV detection from WGS data and build a dedicated pipeline. Our workflows were used to process WGS data from 77 NDD patient-parent families. The prioritization system supported downstream analysis and enabled molecular diagnosis in 32% of patients, 25% of which were SVs and suggested a potential diagnosis in 20% of patients, requiring further investigation to achieve diagnostic certainty. Conclusion: Our data suggest that the integration of SNVs and SVs is a main factor that increases diagnostic yield by WGS and show that the adoption of a dedicated pipeline improves the process of variant detection and interpretation.

Stratigraphic interpretation of Well-Log data of the Athabasca Oil Sands of Alberta Canada through Pattern recognition and Artificial Intelligence

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

MADAP, a flexible clustering tool for the interpretation of one-dimensional genome annotation data.

A recurring task in the analysis of mass genome annotation data from high-throughput technologies is the identification of peaks or clusters in a noisy signal profile. Examples of such applications are the definition of promoters on the basis of transcription start site profiles, the mapping of transcription factor binding sites based on ChIP-chip data and the identification of quantitative trait loci (QTL) from whole genome SNP profiles. Input to such an analysis is a set of genome coordinates associated with counts or intensities. The output consists of a discrete number of peaks with respective volumes, extensions and center positions. We have developed for this purpose a flexible one-dimensional clustering tool, called MADAP, which we make available as a web server and as standalone program. A set of parameters enables the user to customize the procedure to a specific problem. The web server, which returns results in textual and graphical form, is useful for small to medium-scale applications, as well as for evaluation and parameter tuning in view of large-scale applications, requiring a local installation. The program written in C++ can be freely downloaded from ftp://ftp.epd.unil.ch/pub/software/unix/madap. The MADAP web server can be accessed at http://www.isrec.isb-sib.ch/madap/.

Development of data sheets for statistical evaluation of fatigue data

To enable a mathematically and physically sound execution of the fatigue test and a correct interpretation of its results, statistical evaluation methods are used to assist in the analysis of fatigue testing data. The main objective of this work is to develop step-by-stepinstructions for statistical analysis of the laboratory fatigue data. The scopeof this project is to provide practical cases about answering the several questions raised in the treatment of test data with application of the methods and formulae in the document IIW-XIII-2138-06 (Best Practice Guide on the Statistical Analysis of Fatigue Data). Generally, the questions in the data sheets involve some aspects: estimation of necessary sample size, verification of the statistical equivalence of the collated sets of data, and determination of characteristic curves in different cases. The series of comprehensive examples which are given in this thesis serve as a demonstration of the various statistical methods to develop a sound procedure to create reliable calculation rules for the fatigue analysis.

Analysis and interpretation of cost data in randomised controlled trials: review of published studies

Objective To review critically the statistical methods used for health economic evaluations in randomised controlled trials where an estimate of cost is available for each patient in the study.

Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interpretation of MINOS data in terms of nonstandard neutrino interactions

The MINOS experiment at Fermilab has recently reported a tension between the oscillation results for neutrinos and antineutrinos. We show that this tension, if it persists, can be understood in the framework of nonstandard neutrino interactions (NSI). While neutral current NSI (nonstandard matter effects) are disfavored by atmospheric neutrinos, a new charged current coupling between tau neutrinos and nucleons can fit the MINOS data without violating other constraints. In particular, we show that loop-level contributions to flavor-violating tau decays are sufficiently suppressed. However, conflicts with existing bounds could arise once the effective theory considered here is embedded into a complete renormalizable model. We predict the future sensitivity of the T2K and NOvA experiments to the NSI parameter region favored by the MINOS fit, and show that both experiments are excellent tools to test the NSI interpretation of the MINOS data.