Satellite and in situ data integrated analysis to study the upper ocean an coastal environment of the Italian seas

The thesis objectives are to develop new methodologies for study of the space and time variability of Italian upper ocean ecosystem through the combined use of multi-sensors satellite data and in situ observations and to identify the capability and limits of remote sensing observations to monitor the marine state at short and long time scales. Three oceanographic basins have been selected and subjected to different types of analyses. The first region is the Tyrrhenian Sea where a comparative analysis of altimetry and lagrangian measurements was carried out to study the surface circulation. The results allowed to deepen the knowledge of the Tyrrhenian Sea surface dynamics and its variability and to defined the limitations of satellite altimetry measurements to detect small scale marine circulation features. Channel of Sicily study aimed to identify the spatial-temporal variability of phytoplankton biomass and to understand the impact of the upper ocean circulation on the marine ecosystem. An combined analysis of the satellite of long term time series of chlorophyll, Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Level field data was applied. The results allowed to identify the key role of the Atlantic water inflow in modulating the seasonal variability of the phytoplankton biomass in the region. Finally, Italian coastal marine system was studied with the objective to explore the potential capability of Ocean Color data in detecting chlorophyll trend in coastal areas. The most appropriated methodology to detect long term environmental changes was defined through intercomparison of chlorophyll trends detected by in situ and satellite. Then, Italian coastal areas subject to eutrophication problems were identified. This work has demonstrated that satellites data constitute an unique opportunity to define the features and forcing influencing the upper ocean ecosystems dynamics and can be used also to monitor environmental variables capable of influencing phytoplankton productivity.

Prognosis of patients with HIV-1 infection starting antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: a collaborative analysis of scale-up programmes

Background Prognostic models have been developed for patients infected with HIV-1 who start combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-income countries, but not for patients in sub-Saharan Africa. We developed two prognostic models to estimate the probability of death in patients starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We analysed data for adult patients who started ART in four scale-up programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, and Malawi from 2004 to 2007. Patients lost to follow-up in the first year were excluded. We used Weibull survival models to construct two prognostic models: one with CD4 cell count, clinical stage, bodyweight, age, and sex (CD4 count model); and one that replaced CD4 cell count with total lymphocyte count and severity of anaemia (total lymphocyte and haemoglobin model), because CD4 cell count is not routinely measured in many African ART programmes. Death from all causes in the first year of ART was the primary outcome. Findings 912 (8·2%) of 11 153 patients died in the first year of ART. 822 patients were lost to follow-up and not included in the main analysis; 10 331 patients were analysed. Mortality was strongly associated with high baseline CD4 cell count (≥200 cells per μL vs <25; adjusted hazard ratio 0·21, 95% CI 0·17–0·27), WHO clinical stage (stages III–IV vs I–II; 3·45, 2·43–4·90), bodyweight (≥60 kg vs <45 kg; 0·23, 0·18–0·30), and anaemia status (none vs severe: 0·27, 0·20–0·36). Other independent risk factors for mortality were low total lymphocyte count, advanced age, and male sex. Probability of death at 1 year ranged from 0·9% (95% CI 0·6–1·4) to 52·5% (43·8–61·7) with the CD4 model, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·4) to 59·6% (48·2–71·4) with the total lymphocyte and haemoglobin model. Both models accurately predict early mortality in patients starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa compared with observed data. Interpretation Prognostic models should be used to counsel patients, plan health services, and predict outcomes for patients with HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa.

Explaining Recent Connecticut Bank Failures

Significant numbers of U.S. commercial bank failures in the late 1980s and early 1990s raise important questions about bank performance. We develop a failure-prediction model for Connecticut banks to examine events in 1991 and 1992. We adopt data envelopment analysis to derive measures of managerial efficiency. Our findings can be briefly stated. Managerial inefficiency does not provide significant information to explain Connecticut bank failures. Portfolio variables do generally contain significant information.

Avaliação de eficiência das cooperativas de crédito no Brasil: um estudo com base na intermediação financeira e na prestação de serviços

As cooperativas de crédito são instituições financeiras que têm como finalidade principal a prestação de serviços bancários e de intermediação financeira voltando-se para a geração de benefícios ao cooperado, através de benefícios econômicos encontrados sob a forma cooperativada. Considerando o objetivo destas organizações, o presente trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar a eficiência das mesmas considerando duas vertentes: 1) a atividade de intermediação financeira; e 2) a atividade de prestação de serviços bancários, a partir de variáveis contábeis. A técnica utilizada para a avaliação da eficiência foi a Análise Envoltória de Dados e foram analisados os determinantes da eficiência por meio de regressões do tipo Tobit. A amostra é composta por 315 cooperativas singulares listadas na base de dados do Banco Central do Brasil e foram utilizados os dados dos balancetes anuais e semestrais (soma dos semestres para as contas de resultado de cada ano) apresentados para período de 2007 a 2014. Os resultados indicaram baixa eficiência das cooperativas na prestação de serviços bancários, com 73% da amostra apresentando ineficiência ao longo de todos os anos do período em análise. Na atividade de intermediação financeira 20 cooperativas foram eficientes ao longo do período completo, com as demais apresentando graus de ineficiência abaixo de 16% em todos os anos. Quanto aos determinantes da eficiência, verificou-se como principais fatores na atividade de intermediação financeira a Imobilização, a Insolvência, o Descasamento Passivo e as Despesas Administrativas, enquanto na atividade de prestação de serviços os principais determinantes foram a Captação por Floating e as Despesas Administrativas. Os resultados da eficiência na intermediação financeira indicaram baixos graus de ineficiência, enquanto os altos graus de ineficiência na prestação de serviços bancários alertaram para a pouca importância dada ao fornecimentos destes serviços e para a importância de se utilizar dois modelos distintos para a avaliação da eficiência em cooperativas de crédito, dado o comportamento desvinculado entre as duas atividades avaliadas.

Selecting the most preferable alternatives in a group decision making problem using DEA

Group decision making is the study of identifying and selecting alternatives based on the values and preferences of the decision maker. Making a decision implies that there are several alternative choices to be considered. This paper uses the concept of Data Envelopment Analysis to introduce a new mathematical method for selecting the best alternative in a group decision making environment. The introduced model is a multi-objective function which is converted into a multi-objective linear programming model from which the optimal solution is obtained. A numerical example shows how the new model can be applied to rank the alternatives or to choose a subset of the most promising alternatives.

Productivity change using growth accounting and frontier-based approaches:evidence from a Monte Carlo analysis

This study presents some quantitative evidence from a number of simulation experiments on the accuracy of the productivitygrowth estimates derived from growthaccounting (GA) and frontier-based methods (namely data envelopment analysis-, corrected ordinary least squares-, and stochastic frontier analysis-based malmquist indices) under various conditions. These include the presence of technical inefficiency, measurement error, misspecification of the production function (for the GA and parametric approaches) and increased input and price volatility from one period to the next. The study finds that the frontier-based methods usually outperform GA, but the overall performance varies by experiment. Parametric approaches generally perform best when there is no functional form misspecification, but their accuracy greatly diminishes otherwise. The results also show that the deterministic approaches perform adequately even under conditions of (modest) measurement error and when measurement error becomes larger, the accuracy of all approaches (including stochastic approaches) deteriorates rapidly, to the point that their estimates could be considered unreliable for policy purposes.

An alternative formulation for the fuzzy assignment problem

The existing assignment problems for assigning n jobs to n individuals are limited to the considerations of cost or profit measured as crisp. However, in many real applications, costs are not deterministic numbers. This paper develops a procedure based on Data Envelopment Analysis method to solve the assignment problems with fuzzy costs or fuzzy profits for each possible assignment. It aims to obtain the points with maximum membership values for the fuzzy parameters while maximizing the profit or minimizing the assignment cost. In this method, a discrete approach is presented to rank the fuzzy numbers first. Then, corresponding to each fuzzy number, we introduce a crisp number using the efficiency concept. A numerical example is used to illustrate the usefulness of this new method. © 2012 Operational Research Society Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fenntarthatósági szempontok beépítése a beszállító értékelésébe a DEA/CI összetett indikátorok módszere alkalmazásával (Integrating sustainability criteria in supplier evaluation with application of the method of of DEA/CI complex indicators)

A környezeti hatások rendszerint túlmutatnak egy vállalat határain, éppen ezért az ellátási lánc kontextusban a környezeti szempontok érvényesítése során fontos szerep jut a beszerzési döntéseknek is. Számos olyan példát lehetne említeni, amikor egy adott szempont szerint egy alternatíva környezetileg előnyös, de az ellátási lánc egészét nézve már környezetterhelő. A környezeti hatások ellátási lánc szinten való mérése azonban komoly kihívásokat jelent. Ezzel jelentős kutatásokat és fejlesztéseket inspirált a téma. Az egyik olyan terület, amelyben komoly kutatási eredmények születtek, az a környezeti szempontok beszállítói értékelésbe való beépítése. A kutatások ezen irányához csatlakozva a szerzők tanulmányunkban azt keresik, hogyan lehet meghatározni az egyik legáltalánosabban használt szállítóértékelési módszerben, a súlyozott pontrendszerben egy adott szemponthoz azt a súlyt, amely mellett az adott szempont már döntésbefolyásoló tényezővé válik. Ehhez a DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) összetett indikátorok (Composite Indicators, CI) módszerét alkalmazzák. A szempontok közös súlyának fontossága megállapításához a lineáris programozás elméletét használják. _____ Management decisions often have an environmental effect not just within the company, but outside as well, this is why supply chain context is highlighted in literature. Measuring environmental issues of supply decisions raise a lot of problems from methodological and practical point of view. This inspires a rapidly growing literature as a lot of studies were published focusing on how to incorporate environmental issues into supplier evaluation. This paper contributes to this stream of research as it develops a method to help weight selection. In the authors’ paper the method of Data Envelope Analysis (DEA) is used to study the extension of traditional supplier selection methods with environmental factors. The selection of the weight system can control the result of the selection process.

Percurso profissional. Destaque para a análise da produção de resíduos urbanos no Alentejo Central - portugal e utilização do modelo DEA na definição da meta da recolha seletiva

Neste trabalho de Projeto efetua-se o desenvolvimento do tema da produção de Resíduos Urbanos (RU) no Alentejo Central, utilizando-se o modelo DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) para a análise das metas da recolha seletiva estabelecidas para 2020. Genericamente, quanto maior é o grau de desenvolvimento económico de um território, maior é a taxa de urbanização e maior é também a quantidade de resíduos urbanos produzidos por habitante. O rendimento e a urbanização são variáveis altamente correlacionadas, quando aumenta o rendimento disponível e os padrões de vida, aumenta também o consumo de bens e serviços de modo correspondente, o que leva ao aumento da quantidade de resíduos gerados. Assim, tendo em conta os impactos locais que os RU abandonados trazem, e com o objetivo de quebrar o elo entre crescimento económico e os impactos ambientais associados à produção de resíduos, são implementadas, nos países com elevados níveis de desenvolvimento, políticas baseadas em modelos integrados de gestão de RU que permitem a recuperação, reciclagem e valorização dos materiais, reservando-se a eliminação (deposição em aterro) para frações não valorizáveis, o que gera empregos e riqueza. Em Portugal vigora o Plano Estratégico para os Resíduos Urbanos (PERSU 2020) que define objetivos e metas nacionais, nomeadamente a meta da recolha seletiva, estabelecendo para 2020 um quantitativo nacional mínimo a recuperar de 47 kg por habitante por ano. Deste modo, importa caracterizar, para o período de 2002 a 2012, como evoluiu a produção de RU em comparação com a evolução do PIB em Portugal. A análise foca-se então na produção de RU na região do Alentejo em particular no Alentejo Central que evidencia um elevado nível per capita em comparação com o resto do país, situando-se mesmo acima das regiões do grande Porto e Lisboa. São apresentadas possíveis razões para o registo destes elevados níveis de produção de RU não se conseguindo, no entanto, avançar com evidências. Como o modelo DEA é utilizado no PERSU 2020 para fundamentar a projeção das metas da recolha seletiva por sistema de gestão de resíduos urbanos, fez-se a sua reprodução, o que permitiu uma análise mais detalhada dos dados e o ensaio de novos resultados considerando, para além do nível de produção de RU, o numero de equipamentos de deposição de recolha seletiva como input do modelo; Abstract: Title of the report: Professional career. Emphasis on the analysis of urban waste production in Alentejo Central - Portugal and the use of the DEA in defining the separate collection target This professional report presents the theme of the Urban Waste (UW) production in Central Alentejo, using the DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) to analyse the target set for selective collection in 2020. Generally, the higher the degree of economic development of a region, the greater the rate of urbanization and the greater also the amount of municipal waste produced per capita. The variables income and urbanization are highly correlated, if you have an increase in the disposable income and living standards, the consumption of goods and services will increase accordingly, which leads to the increase of the amount of produced waste. Thus, taking into account the local impact that the abandoned UW brings, and in order to break the link between economic growth and the environmental impacts associated with the production of waste, countries with high levels of development implement policies based on integrated UW management models that allow the recovery, recycling and valorisation of materials, restricting the disposal (landfill) to non-recoverable fractions, which creates jobs and wealth. Portugal established a national strategic plan for Urban Waste (PERSU 2020) which defines the goals and national targets, including the selective collection target stating for 2020 a minimum recover of 47 kg per capita per year. Then it is relevant to characterize and compare the evolution of UW production and GDP in Portugal for the period 2002 to 2012. The analysis then focuses on the production of UW in Alentejo, particularly in Central Alentejo region, which shows a high per capita level compared to the rest of the country, placed just above the Greater Porto and Lisbon region. Then we explore several possible reasons for this high level of UW production in this region, but none is successful in producing strong evidence. As the DEA is used in PERSU 2020 to support the projection of the selective collection targets for the municipal waste management systems, in this report we develop the model, which allowed access to the data and a more detailed analyse. Then we introduce and test a new input, the number of separate collection deposition equipment, which gives new results that are compared with the original ones.

Monitoring hotel performance

There is a pressing need to address productivity analysis in the hospitality industry if hotels are to exist as sustainable business entities in rapidly maturing markets. Unfortunately, productivity ratios commonly used by managers are narrowly defined. This study illustrates data envelopment analysis of cross-sectional data that benchmark hotels on observed best performances. Data envelopment analysis enables management to integrate unlike multiple inputs and outputs to make simultaneous comparisons. Findings from the cross-sectional data suggest that some of the hotels have the potential to reduce number of beds and number of part-time staff while increasing revenue.

Predicting the HER2 status of breast cancer from basic histopathology data: an analysis of 1500 breast cancers as part of the HER2000 International Study

The tests that are currently available for the measurement of overexpression of the human epidermal growth factor-2 (HER2) in breast cancer have shown considerable problems in accuracy and interlaboratory reproducibility. Although these problems are partly alleviated by the use of validated, standardised 'kits', there may be considerable cost involved in their use. Prior to testing it may therefore be an advantage to be able to predict from basic pathology data whether a cancer is likely to overexpress HER2. In this study, we have correlated pathology features of cancers with the frequency of HER2 overexpression assessed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) using HercepTest (Dako). In addition, fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) has been used to re-test the equivocal cancers and interobserver variation in assessing HER2 overexpression has been examined by a slide circulation scheme. Of the 1536 cancers, 1144 (74.5%) did not overexpress HER2. Unequivocal overexpression (3+ by IHC) was seen in 186 cancers (12%) and an equivocal result (2+ by IHC) was seen in 206 cancers (13%). Of the 156 IHC 3+ cancers for which complete data was available, 149 (95.5%) were ductal NST and 152 (97%) were histological grade 2 or 3. Only 1 of 124 infiltrating lobular carcinomas (0.8%) showed HER2 overexpression. None of the 49 'special types' of carcinoma showed HER2 overexpression. Re-testing by FISH of a proportion of the IHC 2+ cancers showed that only 25 (23%) of those assessable exhibited HER2 gene amplification, but 46 of the 47 IHC 3+ cancers (98%) were confirmed as showing gene amplification. Circulating slides for the assessment of HER2 score showed a moderate level of agreement between pathologists (kappa 0.4). As a result of this study we would advocate consideration of a triage approach to HER-2 testing. Infiltrating lobular and special types of carcinoma may not need to be routinely tested at presentation nor may grade 1 NST carcinomas in which only 1.4% have been shown to overexpress HER2. Testing of these carcinomas may be performed when HER2 status is required to assist in therapeutic or other clinical/prognostic decision-making. The highest yield of HER2 overexpressing carcinomas is seen in the grade 3 NST subgroup in which 24% are positive by IHC. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Avaliação de desempenho e integração docente-assistencial nos hospitais universitários

OBJETIVO: Avaliar o desempenho e a integração entre as dimensões de assistência e de ensino dos hospitais universitários brasileiros. MÉTODOS: Um modelo de data envelopment analysis em redes (network DEA) foi elaborado para aferir o desempenho de hospitais universitários federais, o qual permite considerar a relação entre as dimensões de ensino e de assistência, simultaneamente. Foram utilizados os dados do Sistema de Informação dos Hospitais Universitários do Ministério da Educação, referentes ao segundo semestre de 2003, e os resultados do modelo network foram comparados àqueles dos modelos DEA tradicionais para avaliação das vantagens da nova proposta metodológica. RESULTADOS: A eficiência dos hospitais avaliados variou entre 0,19 e 1,00 (média = 0,54). O escore dimensional mostrou que os hospitais priorizam o ganho de eficiência assistencial. Observou-se que há necessidade de dobrar o número de alunos de medicina e de aumentar os residentes em 14% para que se tornem eficientes na dimensão de ensino. CONCLUSÕES: O modelo mostrou utilidade de aplicação tanto para os gestores das unidades, visando à integração docente-assistencial, como para os órgãos reguladores, na definição de políticas e incentivos.