Are agent-based simulations robust? The wholesale electricity trading case

Agent-based computational economics is becoming widely used in practice. This paperexplores the consistency of some of its standard techniques. We focus in particular on prevailingwholesale electricity trading simulation methods. We include different supply and demandrepresentations and propose the Experience-Weighted Attractions method to include severalbehavioural algorithms. We compare the results across assumptions and to economic theorypredictions. The match is good under best-response and reinforcement learning but not underfictitious play. The simulations perform well under flat and upward-slopping supply bidding,and also for plausible demand elasticity assumptions. Learning is influenced by the number ofbids per plant and the initial conditions. The overall conclusion is that agent-based simulationassumptions are far from innocuous. We link their performance to underlying features, andidentify those that are better suited to model wholesale electricity markets.

Anorectal malformations and pregnancy-related disorders: a registry-based case-control study in 17 European regions.

OBJECTIVE: To identify pregnancy-related risk factors for different manifestations of congenital anorectal malformations (ARMs). DESIGN: A population-based case-control study. SETTING: Seventeen EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) registries, 1980-2008. POPULATION: The study population consisted of 1417 cases with ARM, including 648 cases of isolated ARM, 601 cases of ARM with additional congenital anomalies, and 168 cases of ARM-VACTERL (vertebral, anal, cardiac, tracheo-esophageal, renal, and limb defects), along with 13 371 controls with recognised syndromes or chromosomal abnormalities. METHODS: Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for potential risk factors for ARM, such as fertility treatment, multiple pregnancy, primiparity, maternal illnesses during pregnancy, and pregnancy-related complications. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Adjusted ORs for pregnancy-related risk factors for ARM. RESULTS: The ARM cases were more likely to be firstborn than the controls (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.4-1.8). Fertility treatment and being one of twins or triplets seemed to increase the risk of ARM in cases with additional congenital anomalies or VACTERL (ORs ranging from 1.6 to 2.5). Maternal fever during pregnancy and pre-eclampsia were only associated with ARM when additional congenital anomalies were present (OR 3.9, 95% CI 1.3-11.6; OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.6-7.1, respectively), whereas maternal epilepsy during pregnancy resulted in a five-fold elevated risk of all manifestations of ARM (OR 5.1, 95% CI 1.7-15.6). CONCLUSIONS: This large European study identified maternal epilepsy, fertility treatment, multiple pregnancy, primiparity, pre-eclampsia, and maternal fever during pregnancy as potential risk factors primarily for complex manifestations of ARM with additional congenital anomalies and VACTERL.

Iliac wing fracture following graft harvesting from the anterior iliac crest: literature review based on a case report.

The morbidity of bone graft harvesting from the iliac crest has been widely discussed in the literature. For some authors, it is considered to be low and for others relatively high. We report on a case of a fracture of the iliac wing after graft harvesting from the anterior iliac crest despite good surgical technique. This complication is well known and most of these fractures heal uneventfully if treated conservatively. However, if anatomical and technical considerations are respected, the patient could be spared this inconvenience. Based on a literature review, we discuss the procedure's potential complications and how to avoid them in an update.

Density-based hierarchical clustering of pyro-sequences on a large scale--the case of fungal ITS1.

MOTIVATION: Analysis of millions of pyro-sequences is currently playing a crucial role in the advance of environmental microbiology. Taxonomy-independent, i.e. unsupervised, clustering of these sequences is essential for the definition of Operational Taxonomic Units. For this application, reproducibility and robustness should be the most sought after qualities, but have thus far largely been overlooked. RESULTS: More than 1 million hyper-variable internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1) sequences of fungal origin have been analyzed. The ITS1 sequences were first properly extracted from 454 reads using generalized profiles. Then, otupipe, cd-hit-454, ESPRIT-Tree and DBC454, a new algorithm presented here, were used to analyze the sequences. A numerical assay was developed to measure the reproducibility and robustness of these algorithms. DBC454 was the most robust, closely followed by ESPRIT-Tree. DBC454 features density-based hierarchical clustering, which complements the other methods by providing insights into the structure of the data. AVAILABILITY: An executable is freely available for non-commercial users at ftp://ftp.vital-it.ch/tools/dbc454. It is designed to run under MPI on a cluster of 64-bit Linux machines running Red Hat 4.x, or on a multi-core OSX system. CONTACT: dbc454@vital-it.ch or nicolas.guex@isb-sib.ch.

Current state of knowledge on neuroendocrine small bowel tumours: non-systematic review of the literature based on one case.

More than 60% of neuroendocrine tumours, also called carcinoids, are localised within the gastrointestinal tract. Small bowel neuroendocrine tumours have been diagnosed with increasing frequency over the past 35 years, being the second most frequent tumours of the small intestine. Ileal neuroendocrine tumours diagnosis is late because patients have non-specific symptoms. We have proposed to illustrate as an example the case of a patient, and on its basis, to make a brief review of the literature on small bowel neuroendocrine tumours, resuming several recent changes in the field, concerning classification criteria of these tumours and new recommendations and current advances in diagnosis and treatment. This patient came to our emergency department with a complete bowel obstruction, along with a 2-year history of peristaltic abdominal pain, vomits and diarrhoea episodes. During emergency laparotomy, an ileal stricture was observed, that showed to be a neuroendocrine tumour of the small bowel.

GIS-based debris flow source and runout susceptibility assessment from DEM data - a case study in NW Nicaragua

In October 1998, Hurricane Mitch triggered numerous landslides (mainly debris flows) in Honduras and Nicaragua, resulting in a high death toll and in considerable damage to property. The potential application of relatively simple and affordable spatial prediction models for landslide hazard mapping in developing countries was studied. Our attention was focused on a region in NW Nicaragua, one of the most severely hit places during the Mitch event. A landslide map was obtained at 1:10 000 scale in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment from the interpretation of aerial photographs and detailed field work. In this map the terrain failure zones were distinguished from the areas within the reach of the mobilized materials. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with 20 m×20 m of pixel size was also employed in the study area. A comparative analysis of the terrain failures caused by Hurricane Mitch and a selection of 4 terrain factors extracted from the DEM which, contributed to the terrain instability, was carried out. Land propensity to failure was determined with the aid of a bivariate analysis and GIS tools in a terrain failure susceptibility map. In order to estimate the areas that could be affected by the path or deposition of the mobilized materials, we considered the fact that under intense rainfall events debris flows tend to travel long distances following the maximum slope and merging with the drainage network. Using the TauDEM extension for ArcGIS software we generated automatically flow lines following the maximum slope in the DEM starting from the areas prone to failure in the terrain failure susceptibility map. The areas crossed by the flow lines from each terrain failure susceptibility class correspond to the runout susceptibility classes represented in a runout susceptibility map. The study of terrain failure and runout susceptibility enabled us to obtain a spatial prediction for landslides, which could contribute to landslide risk mitigation.

Corporate responsibility in the postnational constellation : a multiple-case study

In my thesis I present the findings of a multiple-case study on the CSR approach of three multinational companies, applying Basu and Palazzo's (2008) CSR-character as a process model of sensemaking, Suchman's (1995) framework on legitimation strategies, and Habermas (1996) concept of deliberative democracy. The theoretical framework is based on the assumption of a postnational constellation (Habermas, 2001) which sends multinational companies onto a process of sensemaking (Weick, 1995) with regards to their responsibilities in a globalizing world. The major reason is that mainstream CSR-concepts are based on the assumption of a liberal market economy embedded in a nation state that do not fit the changing conditions for legitimation of corporate behavior in a globalizing world. For the purpose of this study, I primarily looked at two research questions: (i) How can the CSR approach of a multinational corporation be systematized empirically? (ii) What is the impact of the changing conditions in the postnational constellation on the CSR approach of the studied multinational corporations? For the analysis, I adopted a holistic approach (Patton, 1980), combining elements of a deductive and inductive theory building methodology (Eisenhardt, 1989b; Eisenhardt & Graebner, 2007; Glaser & Strauss, 1967; Van de Ven, 1992) and rigorous qualitative data analysis. Primary data was collected through 90 semi-structured interviews in two rounds with executives and managers in three multinational companies and their respective stakeholders. Raw data originating from interview tapes, field notes, and contact sheets was processed, stored, and managed using the software program QSR NVIVO 7. In the analysis, I applied qualitative methods to strengthen the interpretative part as well as quantitative methods to identify dominating dimensions and patterns. I found three different coping behaviors that provide insights into the corporate mindset. The results suggest that multinational corporations increasingly turn towards relational approaches of CSR to achieve moral legitimacy in formalized dialogical exchanges with their stakeholders since legitimacy can no longer be derived only from a national framework. I also looked at the degree to which they have reacted to the postnational constellation by the assumption of former state duties and the underlying reasoning. The findings indicate that CSR approaches become increasingly comprehensive through integrating political strategies that reflect the growing (self-) perception of multinational companies as political actors. Based on the results, I developed a model which relates the different dimensions of corporate responsibility to the discussion on deliberative democracy, global governance and social innovation to provide guidance for multinational companies in a postnational world. With my thesis, I contribute to management research by (i) delivering a comprehensive critique of the mainstream CSR-literature and (ii) filling the gap of thorough qualitative research on CSR in a globalizing world using the CSR-character as an empirical device, and (iii) to organizational studies by further advancing a deliberative view of the firm proposed by Scherer and Palazzo (2008).

Resource-based approach to new product development at the intersection of industries. Two case studies in telecommunications

Työn tavoitteena on selvittää mitkä ovat tärkeimmät aineettomat resurssit, joita tarvitaan teollisuuksien risteyskohdassa tapahtuvassa tuotekehityksessä. Teollisuuksien risteyskohdissa syntyvät tuotteet ovat usein radikaaleja, mikä tekee tuotteista mielenkiintoisia, paljon liiketoimintapotentiaalia tarjoavia. Tämä tutkimus lähestyy tuotekehitystä resurssipohjaisesta näkökulmasta. Myös tietämyspohjaista ja suhdepohjaista näkemystä hyödynnetään korostamaan keskittymistä aineettomiin resursseihin. Tutkimuksessa rakennetaan viitekehys, jossa tutkitaan eri resurssikategorioita. Valitut kategoriat ovat teknologiset, markkinointi-, johtamiseen ja hallinnointiin liittyvät ja suhdepohjaiset resurssit. Empiirisessä osassa tutkitaan kahta uutta tuotekonseptia, jotka ovat syntyneet teollisuuksien risteyskohdissa. Empiirisen osan tavoitteena on määritellä tutkimuksen kohteena olevia alustavia tuotekonsepteja tarkemmin ja selvittää millaisia resursseja näiden toteuttamiseen tarvitaan. Myös tarvittavien resurssien nykytila selvitetään ja pohditaan tulisiko puuttuvia resursseja kehittää yrityksen sisällä vai hankkia ne ulkopuolelta. Tutkimus toteutettiin asiantuntijahaastatteluin. Kahden tapaustutkimuksen perusteella näyttäisi siltä, että suhdepohjaiset resurssit ovat erittäin tärkeitä teollisuuksien risteyskohdissa tapahtuvassa tuotekehityksessä. Myös teknologiset resurssit ovat tärkeitä. Markkinointiresurssien tärkeys riippuu lopullisesta tuotekonseptista, kun taas johtamiseen ja kehittämiseen liittyvät resurssit ovat tärkeitänäiden konseptien luomisessa.

The effects of productivity on profitability: a case study at firm level using an activity-based costing approach

Productivity and profitability are important concepts and measures describing the performance and success of a firm. We know that increase in productivity decreases the costs per unit produced and leads to better profitability. This common knowledge is not, however, enough in the modern business environment. Productivity improvement is one means among others for increasing the profitability of actions. There are many means to increase productivity. The use of these means presupposes operative decisions and these decisions presuppose informationabout the effects of these means. Productivity improvement actions are in general made at floor level with machines, cells, activities and human beings. Profitability is most meaningful at the level of the whole firm. It has been very difficult or even impossible to analyze closely enough the economical aspects of thechanges at floor level with the traditional costing systems. New ideas in accounting have only recently brought in elements which make it possible to considerthese phenomena where they actually happen. The aim of this study is to supportthe selection of objects to productivity improvement, and to develop a method to analyze the effects of the productivity change in an activity on the profitability of a firm. A framework for systemizing the economical management of productivity improvement is developed in this study. This framework is a systematical way with two stages to analyze the effects of productivity improvement actions inan activity on the profitability of a firm. At the first stage of the framework, a simple selection method which is based on the worth, possibility and the necessity of the improvement actions in each activity is presented. This method is called Urgency Analysis. In the second stage it is analyzed how much a certain change of productivity in an activity affects the profitability of a firm. A theoretical calculation model with which it is possible to analyze the effects of a productivity improvement in monetary values is presented. On the basis of this theoretical model a tool is made for the analysis at the firm level. The usefulness of this framework was empirically tested with the data of the profit center of one medium size Finnish firm which operates in metal industry. It is expressedthat the framework provides valuable information about the economical effects of productivity improvement for supporting the management in their decision making.

Evolution based on domain combinations: the case of glutaredoxins

Background: Protein domains represent the basic units in the evolution of proteins. Domain duplication and shuffling by recombination and fusion, followed by divergence are the most common mechanisms in this process. Such domain fusion and recombination events are predicted to occur only once for a given multidomain architecture. However, other scenarios may be relevant in the evolution of specific proteins, such as convergent evolution of multidomain architectures. With this in mind, we study glutaredoxin (GRX) domains, because these domains of approximately one hundred amino acids are widespread in archaea, bacteria and eukaryotes and participate in fusion proteins. GRXs are responsible for the reduction of protein disulfides or glutathione-protein mixed disulfides and are involved in cellular redox regulation, although their specific roles and targets are often unclear. Results: In this work we analyze the distribution and evolution of GRX proteins in archaea,bacteria and eukaryotes. We study over one thousand GRX proteins, each containing at least one GRX domain, from hundreds of different organisms and trace the origin and evolution of the GRX domain within the tree of life. Conclusion: Our results suggest that single domain GRX proteins of the CGFS and CPYC classes have, each, evolved through duplication and divergence from one initial gene that was present in the last common ancestor of all organisms. Remarkably, we identify a case of convergent evolution in domain architecture that involves the GRX domain. Two independent recombination events of a TRX domain to a GRX domain are likely to have occurred, which is an exception to the dominant mechanism of domain architecture evolution.

The design and implementation of a standards-based mobile messaging platform - case WAP Push Proxy Gateway

Tässä diplomityössä perehdytään WAP:in Push -viitekehykseen. WAP-standardit määrittelevät kuinka Internet-tyyppisiä palveluita, joita voidaan käyttää erilaisia mobiileja päätelaiteitteita käyttäen, toteutetaan tehokkaalla ja verkkoteknologiasta riippumattomalla tavalla. WAP pohjautuu Internet:iin, mutta huomioi pienten päätelaitteiden ja mobiiliverkkojen rajoitukset ja erikoisominaisuudet. WAP Push viitekehys määrittelee verkon aloittaman palvelusisällön toimittamisen. Työn teoriaosassa käydään läpi yleinen WAP-arkkitehtuuri ja WAP-protokollapino käyttäen vertailukohtina lanka-Internetin arkkitehtuuria ja protokollapinoa. Edellistä perustana käyttäen tutustaan WAP Push -viitekehykseen. Käytännönosassa kuvataan WAP Push -välityspalvelimen suunnittelu ja kehitystyö. WAP Push -välityspalvelin on keskeinen verkkoelementti WAP Push -viitekehyksessä. WAP Push -välityspalvelin yhdistää Internetin ja mobiiliverkon tavalla, joka piilottaa teknologiaeroavaisuudet Internetissä olevalta palveluntuottajalta.

Evaluation of an eLearning pilot course based on user experiences: corporate case study

Diplomityön tavoitteena oli arvioida sähköisen oppimisen soveltuvuutta kohdeyrityksessä ja selvittää, voidaanko luokkahuonekoulutusta korvata sähköisen oppimisen kursseilla. Tietojärjestelmän raportoinnista tehtiin sähköisen oppimisen kurssi, joka oli koekäytössä. Koekäytön jälkeen tehtiin käyttäjäkysely, kerättiin käyttötietoja kurssista ja tehtiin haastatteluja. Koekäyttäjien kokemuksista tehdyn arvioinnin perusteella sähköinen oppiminen soveltuu käytettäväksi selkeiden asioiden koulutukseen kohdeyrityksessä, mutta se ei voi kokonaan korvata luokkahuonekoulutusta. Luokkahuonekoulutuksessa tulisi keskittyä monimutkaisempiin asioihin ja ongelmanratkaisuun. Positiivisten tulosten perusteella sähköisen oppimisen kehittämistä päätettiin jatkaa yrityksessä. Sähköisen oppimisen kurssin avulla saadaan kustannussäästöjä kohdeyrityksessä, kun käyttäjämäärä on suurempi kuin 66. Jos koko koekäytössä olleen kurssin kohdeyleisö suorittaa kurssin sähköisesti, ovat kustannukset vain noin 15% vastaavista kustannuksista luokkahuoneessa järjestettynä. Lisäksi sähköisen oppimisen tehokkuutta tutkittiin ja koekäytössä olleen kurssin arvioitiin olevan positiivinen työssä kehitetyn Consensus-mallin mukaan.

Palveluyrityksen strateginen ohjaus ja tavoiteasetanta tiimiorganisaatiossa. Case: Etelä-Karjalan Osuuspankki

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli selvittää talouden ohjauksen tila case -yrityksessä, pyrkiä tunnistamaan kehityskohteita ohjauksessa ja ehdottaa mallia, joka huomioi tunnistetut kehittämiskohteet. Teoriaosassa analysoidaan yrityksen ohjausta aiemman teoreettisen kirjoittelun perusteella ja esitetään käsitteet sekä viitekehys. Empiirisessä osassa analysoidaan case -yrityksen ohjauksen nykytilaa ja tunnistetaan kehityskohteita ohjauksessa. Tutkielmassa on käytetty sekä hermeneuttista että normatiivista tutkimusotetta Tutkimuksessa havaittiin strategian jalkautumisen jäävän puutteelliseksi ja tämän vaikeuttavan tavoitteiden takana olevan ajattelun ymmärtämistä. Tavoitteisiin sitoutumista vaikeutti myös näkemys, jonka mukaan tavoitteet tulivat liikaa annettuina tekijöinä. Tutkielman lopuksi kehitettiin case-yritykselle tavoiteasetantamalli, jonka nähtiin auttavan strategian jalkauttamista ja sitouttamista yrityksen myyntitavoitteisiin.

Regression-based techniques for statistical decision making in single-case designs

The present study evaluates the performance of four methods for estimating regression coefficients used to make statistical decisions regarding intervention effectiveness in single-case designs. Ordinary least squares estimation is compared to two correction techniques dealing with general trend and one eliminating autocorrelation whenever it is present. Type I error rates and statistical power are studied for experimental conditions defined by the presence or absence of treatment effect (change in level or in slope), general trend, and serial dependence. The results show that empirical Type I error rates do not approximate the nominal ones in presence of autocorrelation or general trend when ordinary and generalized least squares are applied. The techniques controlling trend show lower false alarm rates, but prove to be insufficiently sensitive to existing treatment effects. Consequently, the use of the statistical significance of the regression coefficients for detecting treatment effects is not recommended for short data series.