901 resultados para Asymptotic behaviour, Bayesian methods, Mixture models, Overfitting, Posterior concentration


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This study examines consumer adoption of 3G mobile technology in China. The qualitative study involved 45 in-depth interviews undertaken in three major Chinese cities to explore the beliefs and attitudes which determine Chinese consumers’ acceptance of the mobile technological innovation. The findings are compared and contrasted against those reported in Western studies. The variations underpinning adoption of 3G between consumers in the three regional cities were identified. Specifically, it was found that the regions differed in terms of the relative importance of the identified adoption determinants, such as perceived social outcomes for using the innovation and the effects of social influence on the adoption. These findings provide subtle insight into the nature of Chinese consumers’ responses to new mobile technologies and a better understanding of variations among regional Chinese consumers.

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Building Web 2.0 sites does not necessarily ensure the success of the site. We aim to better understand what improves the success of a site by drawing insight from biologically inspired design patterns. Web 2.0 sites provide a mechanism for human interaction enabling powerful intercommunication between massive volumes of users. Early Web 2.0 site providers that were previously dominant are being succeeded by newer sites providing innovative social interaction mechanisms. Understanding what site traits contribute to this success drives research into Web sites mechanics using models to describe the associated social networking behaviour. Some of these models attempt to show how the volume of users provides a self-organising and self-contextualisation of content. One model describing coordinated environments is called stigmergy, a term originally describing coordinated insect behavior. This paper explores how exploiting stigmergy can provide a valuable mechanism for identifying and analysing online user behavior specifically when considering that user freedom of choice is restricted by the provided web site functionality. This will aid our building better collaborative Web sites improving the collaborative processes.

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There is general agreement in the scientific community that entrepreneurship plays a central role in the growth and development of an economy in rapidly changing environments (Acs & Virgill 2010). In particular, when business activities are regarded as a vehicle for sustainable growth at large, that goes beyond mere economic returns of singular entities, encompassing also social problems and heavily relying on collaborative actions, then we more precisely fall into the domain of ‘social entrepreneurship’(Robinson et al. 2009). In the entrepreneurship literature, prior studies demonstrated the role of intentionality as the best predictor of planned behavior (Ajzen 1991), and assumed that the intention to start a business derives from the perception of desirability and feasibility and from a propensity to act upon an opportunity (Fishbein & Ajzen 1975). Recognizing that starting a business is an intentional act (Krueger et al. 2000) and entrepreneurship is a planned behaviour (Katz & Gartner 1988), models of entrepreneurial intentions have substantial implications for intentionality research in entrepreneurship. The purpose of this paper is to explore the emerging practice of social entrepreneurship by comparing the determinants of entrepreneurial intention in general versus those leading to startups with a social mission. Social entrepreneurial intentions clearly merit to be investigated given that the opportunity identification process is an intentional process not only typical of for profit start-ups, and yet there is a lack of research examining opportunity recognition in social entrepreneurship (Haugh 2005). The key argument is that intentionality in both traditional and social entrepreneurs during the decision-making process of new venture creation is influenced by an individual's perceptions toward opportunities (Fishbein & Ajzen 1975). Besides opportunity recognition, at least two other aspects can substantially influence intentionality: human and social capital (Davidsson, 2003). This paper is set to establish if and to what extent the social intentions of potential entrepreneurs, at the cognitive level, are influenced by opportunities recognition, human capital, and social capital. By applying established theoretical constructs, the paper draws comparisons between ‘for-profit’ and ‘social’ intentionality using two samples of students enrolled in Economy and Business Administration at the University G. d’Annunzio in Pescara, Italy. A questionnaire was submitted to 310 potential entrepreneurs to test the robustness of the model. The collected data were used to measure the theoretical constructs of the paper. Reliability of the multi-item scale for each dimension was measured using Cronbach alpha, and for all the dimensions measures of reliability are above 0.70. We empirically tested the model using structural equation modeling with AMOS. The results allow us to empirically contribute to the argument regarding the influence of human and social cognitive capital on social and non-social entrepreneurial intentions. Moreover, we highlight the importance for further researchers to look deeper into the determinants of traditional and social entrepreneurial intention so that governments can one day define better polices and regulations that promote sustainable businesses with a social imprint, rather than inhibit their formation and growth.

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Background/objectives This study estimates the economic outcomes of a nutrition intervention to at-risk patients compared with standard care in the prevention of pressure ulcer. Subjects/methods Statistical models were developed to predict ‘cases of pressure ulcer avoided’, ‘number of bed days gained’ and ‘change to economic costs’ in public hospitals in 2002–2003 in Queensland, Australia. Input parameters were specified and appropriate probability distributions fitted for: number of discharges per annum; incidence rate for pressure ulcer; independent effect of pressure ulcer on length of stay; cost of a bed day; change in risk in developing a pressure ulcer associated with nutrition support; annual cost of the provision of a nutrition support intervention for at-risk patients. A total of 1000 random re-samples were made and the results expressed as output probability distributions. Results The model predicts a mean 2896 (s.d. 632) cases of pressure ulcer avoided; 12 397 (s.d. 4491) bed days released and corresponding mean economic cost saving of euros 2 869 526 (s.d. 2 078 715) with a nutrition support intervention, compared with standard care. Conclusion Nutrition intervention is predicted to be a cost-effective approach in the prevention of pressure ulcer in at-risk patients.

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Recent studies have started to explore context-awareness as a driver in the design of adaptable business processes. The emerging challenge of identifying and considering contextual drivers in the environment of a business process are well understood, however, typical methods and models for business process design do not yet consider this context. In this paper, we describe our work on the design of a method framework and appropriate models to enable a context-aware process design approach. We report on our ongoing work with an Australian insurance provider and describe the design science we employed to develop innovative and useful artifacts as part of a context-aware method framework. We discuss the utility of these artifacts in an application in the claims handling process at the case organization.

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Background The management of unruptured aneurysms is controversial with the decision to treat influenced by aneurysm characteristics including size and morphology. Aneurysmal bleb formation is thought to be associated with an increased risk of rupture. Objective To correlate computational fluid dynamic (CFD) indices with bleb formation. Methods Anatomical models were constructed from three-dimensional rotational angiogram (3DRA) data in 27 patients with cerebral aneurysms harbouring single blebs. Additional models representing the aneurysm before bleb formation were constructed by digitally removing the bleb. We characterised haemodynamic features of models both with and without the bleb using CFDs. Flow structure, wall shear stress (WSS), pressure and oscillatory shear index (OSI) were analysed. Results There was a statistically significant association between bleb location at or adjacent to the point of maximal WSS (74.1%, p=0.019), irrespective of rupture status. Aneurysmal blebs were related to the inflow or outflow jet in 88.9% of cases (p<0.001) whilst 11.1% were unrelated. Maximal wall pressure and OSI were not significantly related to bleb location. The bleb region attained a lower WSS following its formation in 96.3% of cases (p<0.001) and was also lower than the average aneurysm WSS in 86% of cases (p<0.001). Conclusion Cerebral aneurysm blebs generally form at or adjacent to the point of maximal WSS and are aligned with major flow structures. Wall pressure and OSI do not contribute to determining bleb location. The measurement of WSS using CFD models may potentially predict bleb formation and thus improve the assessment of rupture risk in unruptured aneurysms.

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An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

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Samples of sea water contain phytoplankton taxa in varying amounts, and marine scientists are interested in the relative abundance of each taxa. Their relative biomass can be ascertained indirectly by measuring the quantity of various pigments using high performance liquid chromatography. However, the conversion from pigment to taxa is mathematically non trivial as it is a positive matrix factorisation problem where both matrices are unknown beyond the level of initial estimates. The prior information on the pigment to taxa conversion matrix is used to give the problem a unique solution. An iteration of two non-negative least squares algorithms gives satisfactory results. Some sample analysis of data indicates prospects for this type of analysis. An alternative more computationally intensive approach using Bayesian methods is discussed.

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Engineering Your Future: An Australasian Guide, 2nd Edition, is the ideal textbook for undergraduate students beginning their engineering studies. Building on the success of the popular 1st edition, this new edition continues the strong and practical emphasis on skills that are essential for engineering problem-solving and design. Numerous topical and locally focused examples of projects across the broad range of engineering disciplines help to graphically demonstrate the role and responsibilities of a professional engineer. Themes of sustainability, ethical practice and effective communication are constant throughout the text. In addition, its many exercises and project activities will encourage students to put key engineering principles and skills into practice.

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With nine examples, we seek to illustrate the utility of the Renormalization Group approach as a unification of other asymptotic and perturbation methods.

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PURPOSE The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the potential of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy for characterizing the health and degenerative state of articular cartilage based on the components of the Mankin score. METHODS Three models of osteoarthritic degeneration induced in laboratory rats by anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) transection, meniscectomy (MSX), and intra-articular injection of monoiodoacetate (1 mg) (MIA) were used in this study. Degeneration was induced in the right knee joint; each model group consisted of 12 rats (N = 36). After 8 weeks, the animals were euthanized and knee joints were collected. A custom-made diffuse reflectance NIR probe of 5-mm diameter was placed on the tibial and femoral surfaces, and spectral data were acquired from each specimen in the wave number range of 4,000 to 12,500 cm(-1). After spectral data acquisition, the specimens were fixed and safranin O staining (SOS) was performed to assess disease severity based on the Mankin scoring system. Using multivariate statistical analysis, with spectral preprocessing and wavelength selection technique, the spectral data were then correlated to the structural integrity (SI), cellularity (CEL), and matrix staining (SOS) components of the Mankin score for all the samples tested. RESULTS ACL models showed mild cartilage degeneration, MSX models had moderate degeneration, and MIA models showed severe cartilage degenerative changes both morphologically and histologically. Our results reveal significant linear correlations between the NIR absorption spectra and SI (R(2) = 94.78%), CEL (R(2) = 88.03%), and SOS (R(2) = 96.39%) parameters of all samples in the models. In addition, clustering of the samples according to their level of degeneration, with respect to the Mankin components, was also observed. CONCLUSIONS NIR spectroscopic probing of articular cartilage can potentially provide critical information about the health of articular cartilage matrix in early and advanced stages of osteoarthritis (OA). CLINICAL RELEVANCE This rapid nondestructive method can facilitate clinical appraisal of articular cartilage integrity during arthroscopic surgery.

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Despite ongoing improvements in behaviour change strategies, licensing models and road law enforcement measures young drivers remain significantly over-represented in fatal and non-fatal road related crashes. This paper focuses on the safety of those approaching driving age and identifies both high priority road safety messages and relevant peer-led strategies to guide the development school programs. It summarises the review in a program logic model built around the messages and identified curriculum elements, as they may be best operationalised within the licensing and school contexts in Victoria. This paper summarises a review of common deliberate risk-taking and non-deliberate unsafe driving behaviours among novice drivers, highlighting risks associated with speeding, driving while fatigued, driving while impaired and carrying passengers. Common beliefs of young people that predict risky driving were reviewed, particularly with consideration of those beliefs that can be operationalised in a behaviour change school program. Key components of adolescent risk behaviour change programs were also reviewed, which identified a number of strategies for incorporation in a school based behaviour change program, including: a well-structured theoretical design and delivery, thoughtfully considered peer-selected processes, adequate training and supervision of peer facilitators, a process for monitoring and sustainability, and interactive delivery and participant discussions. The research base is then summarised in a program logic model with further discussion about the quality of the current state of knowledge of evaluation of behaviour change programs and the need for considerable development in program evaluation.

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We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy. We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

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A novel shape recognition algorithm was developed to autonomously classify the Northern Pacific Sea Star (Asterias amurenis) from benthic images that were collected by the Starbug AUV during 6km of transects in the Derwent estuary. Despite the effects of scattering, attenuation, soft focus and motion blur within the underwater images, an optimal joint classification rate of 77.5% and misclassification rate of 13.5% was achieved. The performance of algorithm was largely attributed to its ability to recognise locally deformed sea star shapes that were created during the segmentation of the distorted images.

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The commercialization of aerial image processing is highly dependent on the platforms such as UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles). However, the lack of an automated UAV forced landing site detection system has been identified as one of the main impediments to allow UAV flight over populated areas in civilian airspace. This article proposes a UAV forced landing site detection system that is based on machine learning approaches including the Gaussian Mixture Model and the Support Vector Machine. A range of learning parameters are analysed including the number of Guassian mixtures, support vector kernels including linear, radial basis function Kernel (RBF) and polynormial kernel (poly), and the order of RBF kernel and polynormial kernel. Moreover, a modified footprint operator is employed during feature extraction to better describe the geometric characteristics of the local area surrounding a pixel. The performance of the presented system is compared to a baseline UAV forced landing site detection system which uses edge features and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) region type classifier. Experiments conducted on aerial image datasets captured over typical urban environments reveal improved landing site detection can be achieved with an SVM classifier with an RBF kernel using a combination of colour and texture features. Compared to the baseline system, the proposed system provides significant improvement in term of the chance to detect a safe landing area, and the performance is more stable than the baseline in the presence of changes to the UAV altitude.