A multi-model approach to evaluate the role of environmental variability and fishing pressure in sardine fisheries

Understanding the fluctuations in population abundance is a central question in fisheries. Sardine fisheries is of great importance to Portugal and is data-rich and of primary concern to fisheries managers. In Portugal, sub-stocks of Sardina pilchardus (sardine) are found in different regions: the Northwest (IXaCN), Southwest (IXaCS) and the South coast (IXaS-Algarve). Each of these sardine sub-stocks is affected differently by a unique set of climate and ocean conditions, mainly during larval development and recruitment, which will consequently affect sardine fisheries in the short term. Taking this hypothesis into consideration we examined the effects of hydrographic (river discharge), sea surface temperature, wind driven phenomena, upwelling, climatic (North Atlantic Oscillation) and fisheries variables (fishing effort) on S. pilchardus catch rates (landings per unit effort, LPUE, as a proxy for sardine biomass). A 20-year time series (1989-2009) was used, for the different subdivisions of the Portuguese coast (sardine sub-stocks). For the purpose of this analysis a multi-model approach was used, applying different time series models for data fitting (Dynamic Factor Analysis, Generalised Least Squares), forecasting (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), as well as Surplus Production stock assessment models. The different models were evaluated, compared and the most important variables explaining changes in LPUE were identified. The type of relationship between catch rates of sardine and environmental variables varied across regional scales due to region-specific recruitment responses. Seasonality plays an important role in sardine variability within the three study regions. In IXaCN autumn (season with minimum spawning activity, larvae and egg concentrations) SST, northerly wind and wind magnitude were negatively related with LPUE. In IXaCS none of the explanatory variables tested was clearly related with LPUE. In IXaS-Algarve (South Portugal) both spring (period when large abundances of larvae are found) northerly wind and wind magnitude were negatively related with LPUE, revealing that environmental effects match with the regional peak in spawning time. Overall, results suggest that management of small, short-lived pelagic species, such as sardine quotas/sustainable yields, should be adapted to a regional scale because of regional environmental variability.

Short-Term Trading for a Wind-PV Power Producer in an Electricity Market

This paper deals with the problem of coordinated trading of wind and photovoltaic systems in order to find the optimal bid to submit in a pool-based electricity market. The coordination of wind and photovoltaic systems presents uncertainties not only due to electricity market prices, but also with wind and photovoltaic power forecast. Electricity markets are characterized by financial penalties in case of deficit or excess of generation. So, the aim o this work is to reduce these financial penalties and maximize the expected profit of the power producer. The problem is formulated as a stochastic linear programming problem. The proposed approach is validated with real data of pool-based electricity market of Iberian Peninsula.

Bidding Decision of Wind-Thermal GenCo in Day-Ahead Market

This paper deals with the self-scheduling problem of a price-taker having wind and thermal power production and assisted by a cyber-physical system for supporting management decisions in a day-ahead electric energy market. The self-scheduling is regarded as a stochastic mixed-integer linear programming problem. Uncertainties on electricity price and wind power are considered through a set of scenarios. Thermal units are modelled by start-up and variable costs, furthermore constraints are considered, such as: ramp up/down and minimum up/down time limits. The stochastic mixed-integer linear programming problem allows a decision support for strategies advantaging from an effective wind and thermal mixed bidding. A case study is presented using data from the Iberian electricity market.

Atmospheric electrical field measurements near a fresh water reservoir and the formation of the lake breeze

In order to access the effect of the lakes in the atmospheric electrical field, measurements have been carried out near a large man-made lake in southern Portugal, the Alqueva reservoir, during the ALqueva hydro-meteorological EXperiment 2014. The purpose of these conjoint experiments was to study the impact of the Alqueva reservoir on the atmosphere, in particular on the local atmospheric electric environment by comparing measurements taken in the proximity of the lake. Two stations 10 km apart were used, as they were located up- and down-wind of the lake (Amieira and Parque Solar, respectively), in reference to the dominant northwestern wind direction. The up-wind station shows lower atmospheric electric potential gradient (PG) values than the ones observed in the down-wind station between 12 and 20 UTC. The difference in the atmospheric electric PG between the up-wind and the down-wind station is ~30 V/m during the day. This differential occurs mainly during the development of a lake breeze, between 10 and 18 UTC, as a consequence of the surface temperature gradient between the surrounding land and the lake water. In the analysis presented, a correlation is found between the atmospheric electric PG differences and both wind speed and temperature gradients over the lake, thus supporting the influence of the lake breeze over the observed PG variation in the two stations. Two hypotheses are provided to explain this observation: (1) The air that flows from the lake into the land station is likely to increase the local electric conductivity through the removal of ground dust and the transport of cleaner air from higher altitudes with significant light ion concentrations. With such an increase in conductivity, it is expected to see a reduction of the atmospheric electric PG; (2) the resulting air flow over the land station carries negative ions formed by wave splashing in the lake's water surface, as a result of the so-called balloelectric effect. These negative ions will form a space-charge density (SCD) that can reduce the atmospheric electric PG. A formulation is derived here in order to estimate the local SCD.

Improvement of The Driver Simulator Control and Comparison Between Driver-Road-Vehicle Interaction in Real and Simulated Environment

The present doctoral thesis discusses the ways to improve the performance of driving simulator, provide objective measures for the road safety evaluation methodology based on driver’s behavior and response and investigates the drivers' adaptation to the driving assistant systems. The activities are divided into two macro areas; the driving simulation studies and on-road experiments. During the driving simulation experimentation, the classical motion cueing algorithm with logarithmic scale was implemented in the 2DOF motion cueing simulator and the motion cues were found desirable by the participants. In addition, it found out that motion stimuli could change the behaviour of the drivers in terms of depth/distance perception. During the on-road experimentations, The driver gaze behaviour was investigated to find the objective measures on the visibility of the road signs and reaction time of the drivers. The sensor infusion and the vehicle monitoring instruments were found useful for an objective assessment of the pavement condition and the drivers’ performance. In the last chapter of the thesis, the safety assessment during the use of level 1 automated driving “ACC” is discussed with the simulator and on-road experiment. The drivers’ visual behaviour was investigated in both studies with innovative classification method to find the epochs of the distraction of the drivers. The behavioural adaptation to ACC showed that drivers may divert their attention away from the driving task to engage in secondary, non-driving-related tasks.

Global Fatigue Assessment of a Decommissioned Jacket Platform for a Sustainable Reuse as an Offshore Wind Turbine

When the offshore oil and gas supplies exhaust, offshore platforms must be decommissioned and removed. The present thesis highlights the importance of evaluating the possibility of reuse of decommissioned offshore jacket platforms for offshore wind energy. In order to shift to the new structure, the topside must be removed from the substructure and a wind turbine can be installed in its place. The feasibility of this project was investigated using a finite element analysis software called Sesam. To study fatigue life in offshore structures, an exhaustive review of the background and state of the art was done. A finite element model was created by the means of Sesam and two different fatigue analysis approaches were applied and compared. In the end, an analysis methodology is suggested for the structural fatigue analysis of offshore wind turbine structures based on international standards, addressing the industry’s need to account for the combined effect of wind and hydrodynamic loads in these type of structures.

Models and methods for damage and quantitative risk assessment of Natech scenarios

Natural events are a widely recognized hazard for industrial sites where relevant quantities of hazardous substances are handled, due to the possible generation of cascading events resulting in severe technological accidents (Natech scenarios). Natural events may damage storage and process equipment containing hazardous substances, that may be released leading to major accident scenarios called Natech events. The need to assess the risk associated with Natech scenarios is growing and methodologies were developed to allow the quantification of Natech risk, considering both point sources and linear sources as pipelines. A key element of these procedures is the use of vulnerability models providing an estimation of the damage probability of equipment or pipeline segment as a result of the impact of the natural event. Therefore, the first aim of the PhD project was to outline the state of the art of vulnerability models for equipment and pipelines subject to natural events such as floods, earthquakes, and wind. Moreover, the present PhD project also aimed at the development of new vulnerability models in order to fill some gaps in literature. In particular, a vulnerability model for vertical equipment subject to wind and to flood were developed. Finally, in order to improve the calculation of Natech risk for linear sources an original methodology was developed for Natech quantitative risk assessment methodology for pipelines subject to earthquakes. Overall, the results obtained are a step forward in the quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents. The tools developed open the way to the inclusion of new equipment in the analysis of Natech events, and the methodology for the assessment of linear risk sources as pipelines provides an important tool for a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of Natech risk.

The “FRA wheel” as a teaching tool to elaborate on the identity aspects of physics and mathematics as disciplines in interdisciplinary contexts

This thesis project is framed in the research field of Physics Education and aims to contribute to the reflection on the importance of disciplinary identities in addressing interdisciplinarity through the lens of the Nature of Science (NOS). In particular, the study focuses on the module on the parabola and parabolic motion, which was designed within the EU project IDENTITIES. The project aims to design modules to innovate pre-service teacher education according to contemporary challenges, focusing on interdisciplinarity in curricular and STEM topics (especially between physics, mathematics and computer science). The modules are designed according to a model of disciplines and interdisciplinarity that the project IDENTITIES has been elaborating on two main theoretical frameworks: the Family Resemblance Approach (FRA), reconceptualized for the Nature of science (Erduran & Dagher, 2014), and the boundary crossing and boundary objects framework by Akkerman and Bakker (2011). The main aim of the thesis is to explore the impact of this interdisciplinary model in the specific case of the implementation of the parabola and parabolic motion module in a context of preservice teacher education. To reach this purpose, we have analyzed some data collected during the implementation in order to investigate, in particular, the role of the FRA as a learning tool to: a) elaborate on the concept of “discipline”, within the broader problem to define interdisciplinarity; b) compare the epistemic core of physics and mathematics; c) develop epistemic skills and interdisciplinary competences in student-teachers. The analysis of the data led us to recognize three different roles played by the FRA: FRA as epistemological activator, FRA as scaffolding for reasoning and navigating (inhabiting) the complexity, and FRA as lens to investigate the relationship between physics and mathematics in the historical case.

Monitoring of macro- and microlitter in the Venice lagoon and coastal area

Marine litter and plastics are a significant and growing marine contaminant that has become a global problem. Macrolitter is subject to fragmentation and degradation due to physical, chemical and biological processes, leading to the formation of micro-litter, the so-called microplastics. The purpose of this research is to assess marine litter pollution by using remote sensing tools to identify areas of macrolitter accumulation and to evaluate the concentrations of microplastics in different environmental matrices: water, sediment and biota (i.e. mussels and fish) and to contribute to the European project MAELSTROM (Smart technology for MArinE Litter SusTainable RemOval and Management). The aim is to monitor the presence of macro- and microlitter at two sites of the Venice coastal area: an abandoned mussel farm at sea and a lagoon site near the artificial Island of Sacca Fisola; The results showed that both study areas are characterised by high amounts of marine litter, but the type of observed litter is different. In fact, in the mussel farm area, most of the litter is linked to aquaculture activities (ropes, nets, mooring blocks and floating buoys). In the Venice lagoon site, the litter comes more from urban activities and from the city of Venice (car tyres, crates, wrecks, etc.). Microplastics is present in both sites and in all the analysed matrices. Generally, higher microplastics concentrations were found at Sacca Fisola (i.e., in surface waters, mussels and fish). Moreover, some differences were also observed in shapes and colours comparing the two sites. At Sacca Fisola, white irregular fragments predominate in water samples, blue filaments in sediment and mussels, and transparent irregular fragments in fish. At the Mussel Farm, blue filaments predominate in water, sediment and mussels, while flat black fragments predominate in fish. These differences are related to the different types of macrolitter that characterised the two areas.

Analise quantitativa das adaptações da coluna vertebral em mulheres gravidas

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

Caracterização de eventos extremos do nível do mar em Santos e sua correspondência com as reanálises do modelo do NCEP no sudoeste do Atlântico Sul

Este trabalho tem como objetivo identificar a influência atmosférica em escala sinótica sobre o oceano, para eventos extremos de maré meteorológica na costa sudeste brasileira. Para isso foram utilizados dados de elevação do nível do mar do Porto de Santos-SP, campos de vento e pressão em superfície das reanálises do modelo do NCEP abrangendo o Atlântico Sul, no período de 1951 a 1990. Foi possível identificar a variabilidade sazonal e o padrão de evolução dos sistemas atmosféricos associados aos eventos extremos, de grande relevância para aplicações em prognósticos e alertas a autoridades. O outono e inverno apresentaram a maior ocorrência de extremos positivos (40,2 % e 30,8 % respectivamente), enquanto a primavera e o inverno foram as estações com maior número de extremos negativos (47,2 % e 32,3 % respectivamente). Os resultados mostram que os casos mais importantes de sobre-elevação do nível do mar ocorrem com a evolução e persistência de sistemas de baixa pressão sobre o oceano, com ventos de sudoeste acima de 8 m/s, juntamente com o anticiclone da retaguarda posicionado sobre o continente.

Gait kinematic analysis in patients with a mild form of central cord syndrome

Background: Central cord syndrome (CCS) is considered the most common incomplete spinal cord injury (SCI). Independent ambulation was achieved in 87-97% in young patients with CCS but no gait analysis studies have been reported before in such pathology. The aim of this study was to analyze the gait characteristics of subjects with CCS and to compare the findings with a healthy age, sex and anthropomorphically matched control group (CG), walking both at a self-selected speed and at the same speed. Methods: Twelve CCS patients and a CG of twenty subjects were analyzed. Kinematic data were obtained using a three-dimensional motion analysis system with two scanner units. The CG were asked to walk at two different speeds, at a self-selected speed and at a slower one, similar to the mean gait speed previously registered in the CCS patient group. Temporal, spatial variables and kinematic variables (maximum and minimum lower limb joint angles throughout the gait cycle in each plane, along with the gait cycle instants of occurrence and the joint range of motion ROM) were compared between the two groups walking at similar speeds. Results: The kinematic parameters were compared when both groups walked at a similar speed, given that there was a significant difference in the self-selected speeds (p < 0.05). Hip abduction and knee flexion at initial contact, as well as minimal knee flexion at stance, were larger in the CCS group (p < 0.05). However, the range of knee and ankle motion in the sagittal plane was greater in the CG group (p < 0.05). The maximal ankle plantar-flexion values in stance phase and at toe off were larger in the CG (p < 0.05). Conclusions: The gait pattern of CCS patients showed a decrease of knee and ankle sagittal ROM during level walking and an increase in hip abduction to increase base of support. The findings of this study help to improve the understanding how CCS affects gait changes in the lower limbs.

A simple procedure for reliability assessment of thin composite plates against buckling

In some circumstances ice floes may be modeled as beams. In general this modeling supposes constant thickness, which contradicts field observations. Action of currents, wind and the sequence of contacts, causes thickness to vary. Here this effect is taken into consideration on the modeling of the behavior of ice hitting inclined walls of offshore platforms. For this purpose, the boundary value problem is first equated. The set of equations so obtained is then transformed into a system of equations, that is then solved numerically. For this sake an implicit solution is developed, using a shooting method, with the accompanying Jacobian. In-plane coupling and the dependency of the boundary terms on deformation, make the problem non-linear and the development particular. Deformation and internal resultants are then computed for harmonic forms of beam profile. Forms of giving some additional generality to the problem are discussed.

The random barrier-crossing problem

This paper addresses the time-variant reliability analysis of structures with random resistance or random system parameters. It deals with the problem of a random load process crossing a random barrier level. The implications of approximating the arrival rate of the first overload by an ensemble-crossing rate are studied. The error involved in this so-called ""ensemble-crossing rate"" approximation is described in terms of load process and barrier distribution parameters, and in terms of the number of load cycles. Existing results are reviewed, and significant improvements involving load process bandwidth, mean-crossing frequency and time are presented. The paper shows that the ensemble-crossing rate approximation can be accurate enough for problems where load process variance is large in comparison to barrier variance, but especially when the number of load cycles is small. This includes important practical applications like random vibration due to impact loadings and earthquake loading. Two application examples are presented, one involving earthquake loading and one involving a frame structure subject to wind and snow loadings. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Particle-Image Velocimetry Study of a Pediatric Ventricular Assist Device

Particle-image velocimetry (PIV) was used to visualize the flow within an optically transparent pediatric ventricular assist device (PVAD) under development in our laboratory The device studied is a diaphragm type pulsatile pump with an ejection volume of 30 ml per beating cycle intended for temporary cardiac assistance as a bridge to transplantation or recovery in children. Of particular interest was the identification of flow patterns, including regions of stagnation and/or strong turbulence that often promote thrombus formation and hemolysis, which can degrade the usefulness of such devices. For this purpose, phase-locked PIV measurements were performed in planes parallel to the diaphram that drives the flow in the device. The test fluid was seeded with 10 Am polystyrene spheres, and the motion of these particles was used to determine the instantaneous flow velocity distribution in the illumination plane. These measurements revealed that flow velocities up to 1.0 m/s can occur within the PVAD. Phase-averaged velocity fields revealed the fixed vortices that drive the bulk flow within the device, though significant cycle-to-cycle variability was also quite apparent in the instantaneous velocity distributions, most notably during the filling phase. This cycle-to-cycle variability can generate strong turbulence that may contribute to greater hemolysis. Stagnation regions have also been observed between the input and output branches of the prototype, which can increase the likelihood of thrombus formation. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4001252]