Feasibility of a stepped wedge cluster RCT and concurrent observational sub-study to evaluate the effects of modified ward night lighting on inpatient fall rates and sleep quality: A protocol for a pilot trial

Background: Falls among hospitalised patients impose a considerable burden on health systems globally and prevention is a priority. Some patient-level interventions have been effective in reducing falls, but others have not. An alternative and promising approach to reducing inpatient falls is through the modification of the hospital physical environment and the night lighting of hospital wards is a leading candidate for investigation. In this pilot trial, we will determine the feasibility of conducting a main trial to evaluate the effects of modified night lighting on inpatient ward level fall rates. We will test also the feasibility of collecting novel forms of patient level data through a concurrent observational sub-study. Methods/design: A stepped wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial will be conducted in six inpatient wards over 14 months in a metropolitan teaching hospital in Brisbane (Australia). The intervention will consist of supplementary night lighting installed across all patient rooms within study wards. The planned placement of luminaires, configurations and spectral characteristics are based on prior published research and pre-trial testing and modification. We will collect data on rates of falls on study wards (falls per 1000 patient days), the proportion of patients who fall once or more, and average length of stay. We will recruit two patients per ward per month to a concurrent observational sub-study aimed at understanding potential impacts on a range of patient sleep and mobility behaviour. The effect on the environment will be monitored with sensors to detect variation in light levels and night-time room activity. We will also collect data on possible patient-level confounders including demographics, pre-admission sleep quality, reported vision, hearing impairment and functional status. Discussion: This pragmatic pilot trial will assess the feasibility of conducting a main trial to investigate the effects of modified night lighting on inpatient fall rates using several new methods previously untested in the context of environmental modifications and patient safety. Pilot data collected through both parts of the trial will be utilised to inform sample size calculations, trial design and final data collection methods for a subsequent main trial.

Ambidextrous leadership and team innovation

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to report the first empirical test of the recently proposed ambidexterity theory of leadership for innovation (Rosing et al., 2011). This theory proposes that the interaction between two complementary leadership behaviors – opening and closing – predicts team innovation, such that team innovation is highest when both opening and closing leadership behaviors are high. Design/methodology/approach Multi-source survey data came from 33 team leaders of architectural and interior design firms and 90 of their employees. Findings Results supported the interaction hypothesis, even after controlling for leaders’ transformational leadership behavior and general team success. Research limitations/implications The relatively small sample size and the cross-sectional design are potential limitations of the study. The findings provide initial support for the central hypothesis of the ambidexterity theory of leadership for innovation. Practical implications The results suggest that organizations could train team leaders’ ambidextrous leadership behaviors to increase team innovation. Social implications Identifying ways to facilitate organizational innovation is important, as it contributes to employment and company growth as well as individual and societal well-being. Originality/value This multi-source study contributes to the literatures on leadership and innovation in organizations by showing that ambidextrous leadership behaviors predict team innovation above and beyond transformational leadership behavior.

Comparison of treatment effect sizes associated with surrogate and final patient relevant outcomes in randomised controlled trials: meta-epidemiological study

Objective To quantify and compare the treatment effect and risk of bias of trials reporting biomarkers or intermediate outcomes (surrogate outcomes) versus trials using final patient relevant primary outcomes. Design Meta-epidemiological study. Data sources All randomised clinical trials published in 2005 and 2006 in six high impact medical journals: Annals of Internal Medicine, BMJ, Journal of the American Medical Association, Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine, and PLoS Medicine. Study selection Two independent reviewers selected trials. Data extraction Trial characteristics, risk of bias, and outcomes were recorded according to a predefined form. Two reviewers independently checked data extraction. The ratio of odds ratios was used to quantify the degree of difference in treatment effects between the trials using surrogate outcomes and those using patient relevant outcomes, also adjusted for trial characteristics. A ratio of odds ratios >1.0 implies that trials with surrogate outcomes report larger intervention effects than trials with patient relevant outcomes. Results 84 trials using surrogate outcomes and 101 using patient relevant outcomes were considered for analyses. Study characteristics of trials using surrogate outcomes and those using patient relevant outcomes were well balanced, except for median sample size (371 v 741) and single centre status (23% v 9%). Their risk of bias did not differ. Primary analysis showed trials reporting surrogate endpoints to have larger treatment effects (odds ratio 0.51, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 0.60) than trials reporting patient relevant outcomes (0.76, 0.70 to 0.82), with an unadjusted ratio of odds ratios of 1.47 (1.07 to 2.01) and adjusted ratio of odds ratios of 1.46 (1.05 to 2.04). This result was consistent across sensitivity and secondary analyses. Conclusions Trials reporting surrogate primary outcomes are more likely to report larger treatment effects than trials reporting final patient relevant primary outcomes. This finding was not explained by differences in the risk of bias or characteristics of the two groups of trials.

The effectiveness of SMS reminders on appointment attendance: A meta-analysis

Objective To identify the efficacy of short message service (SMS) reminders in health care appointment attendance. Materials and Methods A systematic review was undertaken to identify studies published between 2005 and 2015 that compared the attendance rates of patients receiving SMS reminders compared to patients not receiving a reminder. Each article was examined for information regarding the study design, sample size, population demographics and intervention methods. A meta-analysis was used to calculate a pooled estimate odds ratio. Results Twenty-eight (28) studies were included in the review, including 13 (46%) randomized controlled trials. The pooled odds ratio of the randomized control trials was 1.62 (1.35 – 1.94). Half of the studies reviewed sent the reminder within 48 hour prior to the appointment time, yet no significant subgroups differences with respect to participant age, SMS timing, rate or type, setting or specialty was detectable. Discussion All studies, except one with a small sample size, demonstrated a positive OR, indicating SMS reminders were an effective means of improving appointment attendance. There was no significant difference in OR when controlling for when the SMS was sent, the frequency of the reminders or the content of the reminder. Conclusion SMS appointment reminders are an effective and operative method in improving appointment attendance in a health care setting and this effectiveness has improved over the past five years. Further research is required to identify the optimal SMS reminder timing and frequency, specifically in relation to the length of time since the appointment.

Routes of Hendra Virus Excretion in Naturally-Infected Flying-Foxes: Implications for Viral Transmission and Spillover Risk

Pteropid bats or flying-foxes (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae) are the natural host of Hendra virus (HeV) which sporadically causes fatal disease in horses and humans in eastern Australia. While there is strong evidence that urine is an important infectious medium that likely drives bat to bat transmission and bat to horse transmission, there is uncertainty about the relative importance of alternative routes of excretion such as nasal and oral secretions, and faeces. Identifying the potential routes of HeV excretion in flying-foxes is important to effectively mitigate equine exposure risk at the bat-horse interface, and in determining transmission rates in host-pathogen models. The aim of this study was to identify the major routes of HeV excretion in naturally infected flying-foxes, and secondarily, to identify between-species variation in excretion prevalence. A total of 2840 flying-foxes from three of the four Australian mainland species (Pteropus alecto, P. poliocephalus and P. scapulatus) were captured and sampled at multiple roost locations in the eastern states of Queensland and New South Wales between 2012 and 2014. A range of biological samples (urine and serum, and urogenital, nasal, oral and rectal swabs) were collected from anaesthetized bats, and tested for HeV RNA using a qRT-PCR assay targeting the M gene. Forty-two P. alecto (n = 1410) had HeV RNA detected in at least one sample, and yielded a total of 78 positive samples, at an overall detection rate of 1.76% across all samples tested in this species (78/4436). The rate of detection, and the amount of viral RNA, was highest in urine samples (>serum, packed haemocytes >faecal >nasal >oral), identifying urine as the most plausible source of infection for flying-foxes and for horses. Detection in a urine sample was more efficient than detection in urogenital swabs, identifying the former as the preferred diagnostic sample. The detection of HeV RNA in serum is consistent with haematogenous spread, and with hypothesised latency and recrudesence in flying-foxes. There were no detections in P. poliocephalus (n = 1168 animals; n = 2958 samples) or P. scapulatus (n = 262 animals; n = 985 samples), suggesting (consistent with other recent studies) that these species are epidemiologically less important than P. alecto in HeV infection dynamics. The study is unprecedented in terms of the individual animal approach, the large sample size, and the use of a molecular assay to directly determine infection status. These features provide a high level of confidence in the veracity of our findings, and a sound basis from which to more precisely target equine risk mitigation strategies.

Thermal Decomposition Studies on Ammonium Perchlorate—Polybutadiene Composite Propellant

The thermal decomposition of ammonium perchlorate based solid composite propellant using carboxyl terminated polybutadiene as binder has been studied employing thermogravimetry and differential thermal analysis techniques. The thermal decomposition characteristics of the propellant have been found to be quite similar to those of pure ammonium perchlorate with activation energy, 32 Kcal/mole and 60 Kcal/mole respectively in the low and high temperature regions. The effect of the sample size and shape on the thermal decomposition has also been evaluated.

Documenting the inevitable: Voting behaviour at the 2013 Australian election

This chapter uses data from the 2013 Australian Election Study (AES), conducted by Clive Bean, Ian McAllister, Juliet Pietsch and Rachel Gibson (Bean et al. 2014) to investigate political attitudes and voting behaviour in the election. The study was funded by the Australian Research Council and involved a national survey of political attitudes and behaviour using a self-completion questionnaire mailed to respondents on the day before the 7 September election. The sample was a systematic random sample of enrolled voters throughout Australia, drawn by the Australian Electoral Commission. Respondents were given the option of returning the completed questionnaire by reply-paid mail or completing the survey online. Non-respondents were sent several follow-up mailings and the final sample size was 3955, representing a response rate of 34 per cent. The data were weighted to reflect population parameters for gender, age, state and vote.

The use of metabolomics to monitor simultaneous changes in metabolic variables following supramaximal low volume high intensity exercise

High Intensity Exercise (HIE) stimulates greater physiological remodeling when compared to workload matched low-moderate intensity exercise. This study utilized an untargeted metabolomics approach to examine the metabolic perturbations that occur following two workload matched supramaximal low volume HIE trials. In a randomized order, 7 untrained males completed two exercise protocols separated by one week; 1) HIE150%: 30 x 20s cycling at 150% VO2peak, 40s passive rest; 2) HIE300%: 30 x 10s cycling at 300% VO2peak, 50 s passive rest. Total exercise duration was 30 minutes for both trials. Blood samples were taken at rest, during and immediately following exercise and at 60 minutes post exercise. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analysis of plasma identified 43 known metabolites of which 3 demonstrated significant fold changes (HIE300% compared to the HIE150% value) during exercise, 14 post exercise and 23 at the end of the recovery period. Significant changes in plasma metabolites relating to lipid metabolism [fatty acids: dodecanoate (p=0.042), hexadecanoate (p=0.001), octadecanoate (p=0.001)], total cholesterol (p=0.001), and glycolysis [lactate (p=0.018)] were observed following exercise and during the recovery period. The HIE300% protocol elicited greater metabolic changes relating to lipid metabolism and glycolysis when compared to HIE150% protocol. These changes were more pronounced throughout the recovery period rather than during the exercise bout itself. Data from the current study demonstrate the use of metabolomics to monitor intensity-dependent changes in multiple metabolic pathways following exercise. The small sample size indicates a need for further studies in a larger sample cohort to validate these findings.

A multi-centre open-label randomised non-inferiority trial comparing watchful waiting to antibiotic treatment for acute otitis media without perforation in low-risk urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children (the WATCH trial): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Treatment guidelines recommend watchful waiting for children older than 2 years with acute otitis media (AOM) without perforation, unless they are at high risk of complications. The high prevalence of chronic suppurative otitis media (CSOM) in remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities leads these children to be classified as high risk. Urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children are at lower risk of complications, but evidence to support the subsequent recommendation for watchful waiting in this population is lacking. Methods/Design This non-inferiority multi-centre randomised controlled trial will determine whether watchful waiting is non-inferior to immediate antibiotics for urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children with AOM without perforation. Children aged 2 − 16 years with AOM who are considered at low risk for complications will be recruited from six participating urban primary health care services across Australia. We will obtain informed consent from each participant or their guardian. The primary outcome is clinical resolution on day 7 (no pain, no fever of at least 38 °C, no bulging eardrum and no complications of AOM such as perforation or mastoiditis) as assessed by general practitioners or nurse practitioners. Participants and outcome assessors will not be blinded to treatment. With a sample size of 198 children in each arm, we have 80 % power to detect a non-inferiority margin of up to 10 % at a significance level of 5 %, assuming clinical improvement of at least 80 % in both groups. Allowing for a 20 % dropout rate, we aim to recruit 495 children. We will analyse both by intention-to-treat and per protocol. We will assess the cost- effectiveness of watchful waiting compared to immediate antibiotic prescription. We will also report on the implementation of the trial from the perspectives of parents/carers, health professionals and researchers. Discussion The trial will provide evidence for the safety and effectiveness of watchful waiting for the management of AOM in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children living in urban settings who are considered to be at low risk of complications.

Development of probabilistic understanding in fourth grade

We analyzed the development of 4th-grade students’ understanding of the transition from experimental relative frequencies of outcomes to theoretical probabilities with a focus on the foundational statistical concepts of variation and expectation. We report students’ initial and changing expectations of the outcomes of tossing one and two coins, how they related the relative frequency from their physical and computersimulated trials to the theoretical probability, and how they created and interpreted theoretical probability models. Findings include students’ progression from an initial apparent equiprobability bias in predicting outcomes of tossing two coins through to representing the outcomes of increasing the number of trials. After observing the decreasing variation from the theoretical probability as the sample size increased, students developed a deeper understanding of the relationship between relative frequency of outcomes and theoretical probability as well as their respective associations with variation and expectation. Students’ final models indicated increasing levels of probabilistic understanding.

Conceptualising social media support for tacit knowledge sharing: physicians’ perspectives and experiences

Purpose – This paper aims to explore the potential contributions of social media in supporting tacit knowledge sharing, according to the physicians’ perspectives and experiences. Design/methodology/approach – Adopting a qualitative survey design, 24 physicians were interviewed. Purposive and snowball sampling were used to select the participants. Thematic analysis approach was used for data analysis. Findings – The study revealed five major themes and over 20 sub-themes as potential contributions of social media to tacit knowledge flow among physicians. The themes included socialising, practising, networking, storytelling and encountering. In addition, with the help of the literature and the supporting data, the study proposed a conceptual model that explains the potential contribution of social media to tacit knowledge sharing. Research limitations/implications – The study had both theoretical (the difficulty of distinguishing tacit and explicit knowledge in practice) and practical limitations (small sample size). The study findings have implications for the healthcare industry whose clinical teams are not always physically co-located but must exchange their critical experiential and tacit knowledge. Originality/value – The study has opened up a new discussion of this area by demonstrating and conceptualising how social media tools may facilitate tacit knowledge sharing.

Evaluating the effectiveness of a self-management exercise intervention on wound healing, functional ability and health-related quality of life outcomes in adults with venous leg ulcers: a randomised controlled trial

Exercise that targets ankle joint mobility may lead to improvement in calf muscle pump function and subsequent healing. The objectives of this research were to assess the impact of an exercise intervention in addition to routine evidence-based care on the healing rates, functional ability and health-related quality of life for adults with venous leg ulcers (VLUs). This study included 63 patients with VLUs. Patients were randomised to receive either a 12-week exercise intervention with a telephone coaching component or usual care plus telephone calls at the same timepoints. The primary outcome evaluated the effectiveness of the intervention in relation to wound healing. The secondary outcomes evaluated physical activity, functional ability and health-related quality of life measures between groups at the end of the 12 weeks. A per protocol analysis complemented the effectiveness (intention-to-treat) analysis to highlight the importance of adherence to an exercise intervention. Intention-to-treat analyses for the primary outcome showed 77% of those in the intervention group healed by 12 weeks compared to 53% of those in the usual care group. Although this difference was not statistically significant due to a smaller than expected sample size, a 24% difference in healing rates could be considered clinically significant. The per protocol analysis for wound healing, however, showed that those in the intervention group who adhered to the exercise protocol 75% or more of the time were significantly more likely to heal and showed higher rates for wound healing than the control group (P = 0·01), that is, 95% of those who adhered in the intervention group healed in 12 weeks. The secondary outcomes of physical activity, functional ability and health-related quality of life were not significantly altered by the intervention. Among the secondary outcomes (physical activity, functional ability and health-related quality of life), intention-to-treat analyses did not support the effectiveness of the intervention. However, per protocol analyses revealed encouraging results with those participants who adhered more than 75% of the time (n = 19) showing significantly improved Range of Ankle Motion from the self-management exercise programme (P = 0·045). This study has shown that those participants who adhere to the exercise programme as an adjunctive treatment to standard care are more likely to heal and have better functional outcomes than those who do not adhere to the exercises in conjunction with usual care.

Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Sosiaalipalveluja kaikille ja kaiken ikää? : Tutkimus suomalaisten mielipiteistä ja kokemuksista sosiaalipalveluista sekä niiden suhteesta legitimiteettiin

This research analyses opinions on the system of social welfare services from the point of view of clients and the public in general in Finland. The approach is quantitative, drawing on theories of the welfare-state tradition. The data used comes from the comprehensive Welfare and Services in Finland survey compiled by STAKES. While previous research on the welfare state has predominantly focused on surveying public opinion on social protection, this research focuses on social welfare services. The main focus of this research is on publicly funded care provided by municipal social welfare services. In this research, social welfare services include child day care, services for people with disabilities, home-help services, counselling by social workers and social assistance. The research considered in particular whether the clients or the population has different opinions towards social welfare services or social benefits. In addition, the research partly covers areas of informal care provided by family and friends. The research material consisted of the STAKES Welfare and Services in Finland survey. The data was compiled in 2004 and 2006 by Statistics Finland. The research comprises five articles. Additional data have been extracted from social welfare statistics and registers. Multiple approaches were applied in the survey on welfare and services the methods in this research included interviews by phone and mail, and register data. The sample size was 5 810 people in 2004 and 5 798 in 2006. The response rates were 82.7% and 83.7%, respectively. The results indicate that a large majority (90%) of the Finnish population is of the opinion that the public sector should bear the main responsibility for organising social and health services. The system of social welfare services and its personnel have strong public support 73% and 80% respectively. However, new and even negative tones have emerged in the Finnish debate on social welfare services. Women are increasingly critical of the performance of social welfare services and the level of social protection. Furthermore, this study shows that women more often than men wish to see an increase in the amount of privately organised social welfare services. Another group critical of the performance of social welfare services are pensioners. People who had used social welfare services were more critical than those who had not used them. Thus, the severest criticism was received from the groups who use and gain most from public services and benefits. However, the education and income variables identified in earlier studies no longer formed a significant dividing line, although people with higher education tend to foster a more positive view of the performance of social welfare services as well as the level of social protection. Income differences did not bear any significance, that is, belonging to a high or low income group was not a determining factor in the attitude towards social welfare services or social benefits. According to the research, family and friends still form an informal yet significant support network in people's everyday lives, and its importance has not been diminished by services provided by the welfare state. The Finnish public considers child day care the most reliable form of social welfare services. Indeed, child day care has become the most universal sector of our system of social welfare services. Other services that instil confidence included counselling by social workers and services for people with disabilities. On the other hand, social assistance and home-help services received negative feedback. The negative views were based on a number of arguments. One argument contends that the home-help service system, which was originally intended for universal use, is crumbling. The preventive role of home-help services has been reduced. These results mirror the increasingly popular opinion that social welfare services are not produced for all those who need them, but to an increasing extent for a select few of them. Municipalities are struggling with their finances and this, combined with negative publicity, has damaged the public's trust in some municipal social welfare services. A welfare state never achieves a stable condition, but must develop over time, as the world around it changes. Following the 1990's recession, we are now in a position where we can start to develop a system that responds to the needs of the next generation. Study results indicating new areas of dissatisfaction reflect the need to develop and improve the services provided. It is also increasingly essential that social welfare services pay attention to the opinions of clients and the public. Should the gap between opinions and actual activities increase, the legitimacy of the whole system would be questioned. Currently, the vast majority of Finns consider the system of social welfare services adequate, which provides us with the continuity required to maintain and improve client-oriented and reasonably priced social welfare services. Paying attention to the signals given by clients and the general public, and reacting to them accordingly, will also secure the development and legitimacy of the system in the future.

Association of methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase gene polymorphisms & colorectal cancer in India

Background & objectives: Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) is a critical enzyme in folate metabolism and involved in DNA synthesis, DNA repair and DNA methylation. The two common functional polymorphisms of MTHFR, 677C -> T and 1298 A -> C have shown to impact several diseases including cancer. This case-control study was undertaken to analyse the association of the MTHFR gene polymorphisms 677 C -> T and 1298 A -> C and risk of colorectal cancer (CRC).Methods: One hundred patients with a confirmed histopathologic diagnosis of CRC and 86 age and gender matched controls with no history of cancer were taken for this study. DNA was isolated from peripheral blood samples and the genotypes were determined by PCR-RFLP. The risk association was estimated by compounding odds ratio (OR) with 95 per cent confidence interval (CI). Results: Genotype frequency of MTHFR 677 CC, CT and TT were 76.7, 22.1 and 1.16 per cent in controls, and 74,25 and 1.0 per cent among patients. The 'T' allele frequency was 12.21 and 13.5 per cent in controls and patients respectively. The genotype frequency of MTHFR 1298 AA, AC, and CC were 25.6, 58.1 and 16.3 per cent for controls and 22, 70 and 8 per cent for patents respectively. The 'C' allele frequency for 1298 A -> C was 43.0 and 45.3 per cent respectively for controls and patients. The OR for 677 CT was 1.18 (95% CI 0.59-2.32, P = 0.642), OR for 1298 AC was 1.68 (95% CI 0.92-3.08, P = 0.092) and OR for 1298 CC was 0.45(95% CI 0.18-1.12, P = 0.081). The OR for the combined heterozygous state (677 CT and 1298 AC) was 1.18(95% CI 0.52-2.64, P =0.697).Interpretation & conclusion: The frequency of the MTHFR 677 TT genotype is rare as compared to 1298 CC genotype in the population studied. There was no association between 677 C -> T and 1298 A -> C polymorphisms and risk of CRC either individually or in combination. The homozygous state for 1298 A -> C polymorphism appears to slightly lower risk of CRC. This needs to be confirmed with a larger sample size.