激光拼焊错边产生与预测建模方法

错边是评定激光拼焊质量的一个非常重要的指标,薄板构件错边的控制是激光拼焊中一个难题。针对国内首条全自动激光拼焊设备,对错边的产生以及控制方法进行了深入研究,经过大量试验确定了影响错边大小的几个主要因素,板材自身物理变形、压紧力大小与均匀性、压紧横梁变形、支撑底板平面度误差以及焊接变形的影响。通过分析以上因素对错边的影响以及各个因素之间相互关系,建立了错边预测的数学模型。试验验证了模型的正确性,从而为确定错边产生原因,提高焊接质量提供了一个有效的理论指导。

金川矿山岩体移动规律及竖井变形、破坏机理研究

The Jinchuan Nickel Mine is the largest underground mine with cut-and-fill mining in China. It is very difficult to be exploited for very low safety stability of rock mass caused by complex geological conditions, developed faults, cracked rock mass and high stress. In this paper, the laws of rock mass movement、mechanics of shaft deformation and destroy were analyzed based on the collection of date, the detailed field engineering investigations, ground movement monitoring by GPS, theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. According to the GPS monitoring result of ground surface movement, there are different ground movement characteristics among the three Mine area of Jinchuan Nickel Mine. In No. 2 Mine area, the ground movement funnel with apparent asymmetry is developing, the influence scope is larger in the up faulted block than in the down faulted block, and the centre of ground movement is moving along the up faulted block direction with increasing depth of mining. Moreover, the tunnels in the corresponding area with the centre of ground movement are damaged seriously. In Longshou Mine area, the ground movement funnel is also developing, but the moving path and the nonlinear characters are more sophisticated because of the long-term effects of open excavating and the effects of underground mining together. In No. 3 Mine area, the underground mining impact on surface is not serious for the time of mining activity is not for long, but the ground movement funnel is also forming now. The underground mining has caused widespread land subsidence in Jinchuan Nickel Mine area, but the phenomena of surface raise appeared in some partial areas of Longshou Mine area and No. 3 Mine area. Analysis proved that the reason for the open pit bottom raise is the slope deformation activation caused by the excavation from open pit into underground mine; and that the raise of surface in No.3 Mine area is caused by the effect of elastic foundation due to underground mining. Although the GPS Monitoring results show the amount of subsidence is increasing constantly, the subsidence rate has a descending tendency with fluctuation in Jinchuan No. 2 Mine area. The subsidence rate curve is a time function and exists an extreme point, the rate increasing before extreme point and decreasing after the extreme point ,but the scale of decreasing rate will be very small after the rate decreasing up to a certain degree, moreover, the characteristics is different among different areas, which have some relation with the distance to the mining section and the dip of the ore body. ArcView is GIS software, which we adopted as a development platform, and made secondary development by its development language “avenue”, through which we developed a ground movement analysis and forecast System for Jinchuan Nickel Mine, which contain three modules : management of ground movement information; analysis and evaluation of ground movement; and ground movement forecast. In the module of evaluation, using the technique of MATLAB6.5 program with VB6.0, the system can achieve the ANN prediction model for GPS monitoring data, data preparation results analysis and model integrated was realized by Avenue programming. Finally, the author analyzed the mechanical of deformation and destroy of the No. 14 shaft, and its repair and artificial-support effectiveness also given detailed demonstration in various aspect. The result showed that the reason for the destroy of No. 14 shaft is underground mining, and being the case, the destroy of the shaft also has its special features, which mainly contains forked stress contour for mining steep ore and fault effect caused by mining activities. The repair and artificial-support played some restrictions on the rock mass movement and deformation, but did not show a strong or marked effect. With the increasing of mining depth and large-scale, the closure rock of the shaft will still deformed, even be destroyed.

地理信息系统支持下的滑坡灾害空间分析预测-以云南小江流域为例

As a typical geological and environmental hazard, landslide has been causing more and more property and life losses. However, to predict its accurate occurring time is very difficult or even impossible due to landslide's complex nature. It has been realized that it is not a good solution to spend a lot of money to treat with and prevent landslide. The research trend is to study landslide's spatial distribution and predict its potential hazard zone under certain region and certain conditions. GIS(Geographical Information System) is a power tools for data management, spatial analysis based on reasonable spatial models and visualization. It is new and potential study field to do landslide hazard analysis and prediction based on GIS. This paper systematically studies the theory and methods for GIS based landslide hazard analysis. On the basis of project "Mountainous hazard study-landslide and debris flows" supported by Chinese Academy of Sciences and the former study foundation, this paper carries out model research, application, verification and model result analysis. The occurrence of landslide has its triggering factors. Landslide has its special landform and topographical feature which can be identify from field work and remote sensing image (aerial photo). Historical record of landslide is the key to predict the future behaviors of landslide. These are bases for landslide spatial data base construction. Based on the plenty of literatures reviews, the concept framework of model integration and unit combinations is formed. Two types of model, CF multiple regression model and landslide stability and hydrological distribution coupled model are bought forward. CF multiple regression model comes form statistics and possibility theory based on data. Data itself contains the uncertainty and random nature of landslide hazard, so it can be seen as a good method to study and understand landslide's complex feature and mechanics. CF multiple regression model integrates CF (landslide Certainty Factor) and multiple regression prediction model. CF can easily treat with the problems of data quantifying and combination of heteroecious data types. The combination of CF can assist to determine key landslide triggering factors which are then inputted into multiple regression model. CF regression model can provide better prediction results than traditional model. The process of landslide can be described and modeled by suitable physical and mechanical model. Landslide stability and hydrological distribution coupled model is such a physical deterministic model that can be easily used for landslide hazard analysis and prediction. It couples the general limit equilibrium method and hydrological distribution model based on DEM, and can be used as a effective approach to predict the occurrence of landslide under different precipitation conditions as well as landslide mechanics research. It can not only explain pre-existed landslides, but also predict the potential hazard region with environmental conditions changes. Finally, this paper carries out landslide hazard analysis and prediction in Yunnan Xiaojiang watershed, including landslide hazard sensitivity analysis and regression prediction model based on selected key factors, determining the relationship between landslide occurrence possibility and triggering factors. The result of landslide hazard analysis and prediction by coupled model is discussed in details. On the basis of model verification and validation, the modeling results are showing high accuracy and good applying potential in landslide research.

孤南-三合村洼陷含油气系统研究

The development petroleum geology has made people from studying and studying and predicting in statically and respectively the pool-forming conditions of an area such as oil source bed, reservoir, overlying formation, migration, trap and preservation, etc. to regarding these conditions as well as roles of generation, reservation and accumulation as an integrated dynamic evolution development system to do study .Meanwhile apply various simulating means to try to predict from quantitative angle. Undoubtedly, the solution of these questions will accumulate exploration process, cut down exploration cost and obtain remarkable economic and social benefits. This paper which take sedimentology ,structural geology and petroleum geology as guides and take petroleum system theory as nucleus and carry out study thinking of beginning with static factor and integration of point and face as well as regarding dynamic state factor as factor and apply study methods of integration of geology, Lab research and numerical modeling proceed integrated dissect and systematic analysis to GuNan-SanHeCun depression. Also apply methods of integration of sequence stratigraphy, biostratigraphy, petrostratigraphy and seismic data to found the time-contour stratigraphic framework and reveal time-space distribution of depositional system and meantime clarify oil-source bed, reservoir and overlying distribution regular patterns. Also use basin analysis means to study precisely the depositional history, packed sequences and evolution. Meanwhile analyze systematically and totally the fracture sequence and fault quality and fault feature, study the structural form, activity JiCi and time-space juxtaposion as well as roles of fault in migration and accumulation of oil and gas of different rank and different quality fault. Simultaneously, utilize seismic, log, analysis testing data and reservoir geology theory to do systematic study and prediction to GuNan-SanHeCun reservoir, study the reservoir types macroscopic distribution and major controlling factors, reservoir rock, filler and porosity structural features as well as distribution of reservoir physical property in 3D space and do comprehensive study and prediction to major controlling and influential factors of reservoir. Furthermore, develop deepingly organic geochemistry comprehensive study, emphasis on two overlaps of oil source rock (ESI, ES3) organic geochemistry features, including types, maturity and spatial variations of organic matter to predict their source potential .Also apply biological marks to proceed oil-to-source correlation ,thereby establish bases for distribution of petroleum system. This study recover the oil generation history of oil source rocks, evaluate source and hydrocarbon discharge potential ,infer pool-forming stages and point out the accumulation direction as well as discover the forming relations of mature oil-source rock and oil reservoir and develop research to study dynamic features of petroleum system. Meanwhile use systematic view, integrate every feature and role of pool forming and the evolution history and pool-forming history, thereby lead people from static conditions such as oil source bed, reservoir, overlying formation, migration, trap and preservation to dynamically analyzing pool-forming process. Also divide GuNan-SanHeCun depression into two second petroleum system, firstly propose to divide second petroleum system according to fluid tress, structural axis and larger faults of cutting depression, and divide lower part of petroleum system into five secondary systems. Meanwhile establish layer analysis and quantitative prediction model of petroleum model, and do quantitative prediction to secondary petroleum system.

港西地区河流相砂岩油藏剩余油分布研究

The Gangxi oil field has reached a stage of high water production. The reservoir parameters, such as reservoir physical characteristics, pore structure, fluid, have obviously changed. This thesis therefore carries out a study of these parameters that control reservoir characteristics, physical and chemical actions that have taken place within the reservoirs due to fluid injection, subsequent variations of reservoir macroscopic physical features, microscopic pore structures, seepages, and formation fluid properties. This study rebuilds a geologic model for this oil field, establishes a log-interpreting model, proposes a methodology for dealing with large pore channels and remnant oil distribution, and offers a basis for effective excavation of potential oil, recovery planning, and improvement of water-injection techniques. To resolve some concurrent key problems in the process of exploration of the Gangxi area, this thesis carries out a multidisciplinary research into reservoir geology, physical geography, reservoir engineering, and oil-water well testing. Taking sandstone and flow unit as objects, this study establishes a fine geologic model by a quantificational or semi-quantificational approach in order to understand the remnant oil distribution and the reservoir potential, and accordingly proposes a plan for further exploration. By rebuilding a geological model and applying reservoir-engineering methods, such as numerical simulation, this thesis studies the oil-water movement patterns and remnant-oil distribution, and further advances a deployment plan for the necessary adjustments and increase of recoverable reserves. Main achievements of this study are as follows: 1. The Minghazhen Formation in the Gangxi area is featured by medium-sinuosity river deposits, manifesting themselves as a transitional type between typical meandering and braided rivers. The main microfacies are products of main and branch channels, levee, inter-channel overflows and crevasse-splay floodplains. The Guantao Group is dominantly braided river deposit, and microfacies are mainly formed in channel bar, braided channel and overbank. Main lithofacies include conglomerate, sandstone, siltstone and shale, with sandstone facies being the principal type of the reservoir. 2. The reservoir flow unit of the Gangxi area can be divided into three types: Type I is a high-quality heterogeneous seepage unit, mainly distributed in main channel; Type II is a moderate-quality semi-heterogeneous seepage unit, mainly distributed in both main and branch channels, and partly seen within inter-channel overflow microfacies; Type III is a low-quality, relatively strong heterogeneous seepage unit, mainly distributed in inter-channel overflow microfacies and channel flanks. 3. Flow units and sedimentary microfacies have exerted relatively strong controls on the flowing of underground oil-water: (1) injection-production is often effective in the float units of Type I and II, whilst in the same group of injection-production wells, impellent velocity depends on flow unit types and injection-production spacing; (2) The injection-production of Type III flow unit between the injection-production wells of Type I and II flow units, however, are little effective; (3) there can form a seepage shield in composite channels between channels, leading to inefficient injection and production. 4. Mainly types of large-scale remnant-oil distribution are as follows: (1) remnant oil reservoir of Type III flow unit; (2) injection-production well group of remnant oil area of Type III flow unit; (3) remnant oil reservoirs that cannot be controlled by well network, including reservoir featured by injection without production, reservoir characterized by production without injection, and oil reservoir at which no well can arrive; (4) remnant oil area where injection-production system is not complete. 5. Utilizing different methods to deal with different sedimentary types, sub-dividing the columns of up to 900 wells into 76 chronostratigraphic units. Four transitional sandstone types are recognized, and contrast modes of different sandstone facies are summarized Analyzing in details the reservoirs of different quality by deciphering densely spaced well patterns, dividing microscopic facies and flow units, analyzing remnant oil distribution and its effect on injection-production pattern, and the heterogeneity. Theory foundation is therefore provided for further excavation of remnant oil. Re-evaluating well-log data. The understanding of water-flood layers and conductive formations in the Gangxi area have been considerably improved, and the original interpretations of 233 wells have changed by means of double checking. Variations of the reservoirs and the fluid and formation pressures after water injection are analyzed and summarized Studies are carried out of close elements of the reservoirs, fine reservoir types, oil-water distribution patterns, as well as factors controlling oil-gas enrichment. A static geological model and a prediction model of important tracts are established. Remaining recoverable reserves are calculated of all the oil wells and oil-sandstones. It is proposed that injection-production patterns of 348 oil-sandstones should be adjusted according to the analysis of adaptability of all kinds of sandstones in the injection-production wells.

文33块沙二下段油藏动态模型及剩余油预测

By applying synthetically multi-subject theories, methods and technology, such as petroleum geology, sedimentology, seep mechanics, geochemistry, geophysics and so on; and by making full use of computer; combining quantity and quality, macroscopic and microscopic, intensive static and active description, comprehensive studying and physical modeling, 3 dimension and 4 dimension description; the paper took Wen-33 block of Zhongyuan oil field as an example; and studied reservoir macroscopic and microscopic parameter changing rule and evolve mechanics in different water-blood stage. The reservoir dynamic model and remaining-oil distribution mode was established, and several results were achieved as follows: (1) Three types of parameter gaining, optimizing and whole data body of Wen33th reservoir were established. Strata framework, structure framework, reservoir types and distribution of Wen33th reservoir were discussed. Reservoir genesis types, space distribution law and evolve rule of Wen33th reservoir were explained. 4D dynamic model of macroscopic parameter of reservoir flow dynamic geologic function of Wen33th reservoir was established. The macroscopic remaining-oil distribution and control factor was revealed. The models of the microscopic matrix field, pore-throat network field, fluid field, clay mineral field of Wen-33 block were established. The characters, changing rules and controlled factors in different water stage were revealed. The evolve rule and mechanics of petroleum fluid field in Wen-33 block reservoir were revealed. Macroscopic and microscopic remaining oil distribution mode of Wen-33 block were established. Seven types, namely 12 shapes of dynamic model of microscopic remaining oil were discussed, and the distribution of mover remaining oil was predicted. Emulation model: mathematical model and prediction model of Wen-33 block were established. The changing mechanics of reservoir parameter and distribution of remaining-oil were predicted. Firstly, the paper putting forward that the dynamic geologic function of petroleum development is the factor of controlling remaining-oil, which is the main factor leading to matrix field, network field, clay mineral field, fluid field, physic and chemical field, stress field and fluid field forming and evolving. (10) A set of theories, methods and technologies of investigating, describing, characterizing and predicting complex fault-block petroleum were developed.

三峡库区滑坡的时空分布、成因及其预报模式

Landslides are widely distributed along the main stream banks of the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Especially with the acceleration of the human economic activities in the recent 30 years, the occurrence of landslide hazards in the local area trends to be more serious. Because of the special geological, topographic and climatic conditions of the Three Gorges areas, many Paleo-landslides are found along the gentle slope terrain of the population relocation sites. Under the natural condition, the Paleo-landslides usually keep stable. The Paleo-landslides might revive while they are influenced under the strong rainfall, water storage and migration engineering disturbance. Therefore, the prediction and prevention of landslide hazards have become the important problem involving with the safety of migration engineering of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.The past research on the landslides of the Three Gorges area is mainly concentrated on the stability analysis of individual landslide, and importance was little attached to the knowledge on the geological environment background of the formation of regional landslides. So, the relationship between distribution and evolution of landslides and globe dynamic processes was very scarce in the past research. With further study, it becomes difficult to explain the reasons for the magnitude and frequency of major geological hazards in terms of single endogenic or exogenic processes. It is possible to resolve the causes of major landslides in the Three Gorges area through the systematic research of regional tectonics and river evolution history.In present paper, based on the view of coupling of earth's endogenic and exogenic processes, the author researches the temporal and spacial distribution and formation evolution of major landslides(Volume^lOOX 104m3) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area through integration of first-hand sources statistics, .geological evolution history, isotope dating and numerical simulation method etc. And considering the main formation factors of landslides (topography, geology and rainfall condition), the author discusses the occurrence probability and prediction model of rainfall induced landslides.The distribution and magnitude of Paleo-landslides in the Three Gorges area is mainly controlled by lithology, geological structure, bank slope shape and geostress field etc. The major Paleo-landslides are concentrated on the periods 2.7-15.0 X 104aB.R, which conrresponds to the warm and wettest Paleoclimate stages. In the same time, the Three Gorges area experiences with the quickest crust uplift phase since 15.0X 104aB.P. It is indicated that the dynamic factor of polyphase major Paleo-landslides is the coupling processes of neotectonic movement and Quaternary climate changes. Based on the numerical simulation results of the formation evolution of Baota landslide, the quick crust uplift makes the deep river incision and the geostress relief causes the rock body of banks flexible. Under the strong rainfall condition, the pore-water pressure resulted from rain penetration and high flood level can have the shear strength of weak structural plane decrease to a great degree. Therefore, the bank slope is easy to slide at the slope bottom where shear stress concentrates. Finally, it forms the composite draught-traction type landslide of dip stratified rocks.The susceptibility idea for the rainfall induced landslide is put forward in this paper and the degree of susceptibility is graded in terms of the topography and geological conditions of landslides. Base on the integration with geological environment factors and rainfall condition, the author gives a new probabilistic prediction model for rainfall induced landslides. As an example from Chongqing City of the Three Gorges area, selecting the 5 factors of topography, lithology combination, slope shape, rock structure and hydrogeology and 21 kinds of status as prediction variables, the susceptibility zonation is carried out by information methods. The prediction criterion of landslides is established by two factors: the maximum 24 hour rainfall and the antecedent effective precipitation of 15 days. The new prediction model is possible to actualize the real-time regional landslide prediction and improve accuracy of landslide forecast.

中老年危机热线来电者的应激源与自杀危险性

Objective: Psychosocial crisis and psychiatric disorders are two stressors for suicide action. This study will explore the differences on demographic characteristics, severity of depression, and suicidality of middle-aged and elder crisis line callers under the influences of psychosocial crisis or psychiatric disorders or two simultaneously-mixed stressors, in order to develop effective intervention strategies for crisis line. Methods: Analysis data of 1,092 cases selected from national crisis line callers aged 45 and over who were assessed with “Suicide risk assessment” during the period from December, 2002 to December, 2008. The sample were divided into three groups of psychosocial crisis, mental health problems, and mixed-stressors of three types of general callers (48.2%, 32.3%, 19.5%), callers with current suicide ideation (43.7%, 33.0%, 23.3%) and callers attempted suicide 2 weeks prior to the call (33.6%, 42.3%, 24.1%) respectively according to the operators’ judgments of the callers’ claimed difficult situations and classification system of crisis line database. X2 test and Tukey-type and Multinomial Logistic Regression multiple comparison methods are applied to analysis the differences of the three groups. Results: In agreement with previous studies, more females (71.3%, X2=13.45, P<0.001), especially females influenced by relationship stressors (76.8%, X2=25.12, P<0.001) made the call for crisis. Among general callers, the check-out rates of Major Depression Episode of mixed-stressor callers (78.5%, P<0.001) and problem callers (68.7%, P<0.05) were significantly higher than that of crisis callers (57.1%). The check-out rates of suicide ideation of mixed-stressor callers (71.4%) were significantly higher than that in crisis callers (53.8%, P<0.001) and problem callers (60.9%, P<0.05). The check-out rates of prior suicide attempts of mixed-stressor (16.6%, P<0.05) and problem callers (18.5%, P<0.01) were significantly higher than that of crisis callers (9.8%). More than half of the mixed-stressor callers (51.8%) reported over 50% degree of hopelessness, which was significantly higher than that of crisis callers (35.6%, P<0.01) and problem callers (38.2%, P<0.05). Fewer crisis callers sought medical help than problem and mixed-stressor callers among three types of callers (X2=241.35, 146.56, 50.87; P<0.001). Compare to non-compound crisis callers, the proportion of minor, severe depression and prior depression diagnosis (14.0% vs. 17.4%; 54.9% vs. 65.2%; 0 vs. 2.2%; X2=14.35，P<0.01), suicide ideation (51.1% vs. 64.0%, P<0.05) and prior suicide attempts (8.4% vs. 15.0%, P<0.05) in compound crisis callers were significantly higher. There were more compound crisis callers with over 50% hopelessness (51.9% vs. 31.0%，X2=11.96，P<0.01). Conclusion: As predicted, among middle-aged and elderly participants, mixed-stressor and compound crisis callers were higher in degree of severity of depression and suicidality. Intervention strategies should be developed addressing to specific stressor or stressors. The promotions of crisis callers’ medical help seeking behavior need to be emphasized.

Uncertainty in wind energy forecasting

Wind energy is the energy source that contributes most to the renewable energy mix of European countries. While there are good wind resources throughout Europe, the intermittency of the wind represents a major problem for the deployment of wind energy into the electricity networks. To ensure grid security a Transmission System Operator needs today for each kilowatt of wind energy either an equal amount of spinning reserve or a forecasting system that can predict the amount of energy that will be produced from wind over a period of 1 to 48 hours. In the range from 5m/s to 15m/s a wind turbine’s production increases with a power of three. For this reason, a Transmission System Operator requires an accuracy for wind speed forecasts of 1m/s in this wind speed range. Forecasting wind energy with a numerical weather prediction model in this context builds the background of this work. The author’s goal was to present a pragmatic solution to this specific problem in the ”real world”. This work therefore has to be seen in a technical context and hence does not provide nor intends to provide a general overview of the benefits and drawbacks of wind energy as a renewable energy source. In the first part of this work the accuracy requirements of the energy sector for wind speed predictions from numerical weather prediction models are described and analysed. A unique set of numerical experiments has been carried out in collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute to investigate the forecast quality of an operational numerical weather prediction model for this purpose. The results of this investigation revealed that the accuracy requirements for wind speed and wind power forecasts from today’s numerical weather prediction models can only be met at certain times. This means that the uncertainty of the forecast quality becomes a parameter that is as important as the wind speed and wind power itself. To quantify the uncertainty of a forecast valid for tomorrow requires an ensemble of forecasts. In the second part of this work such an ensemble of forecasts was designed and verified for its ability to quantify the forecast error. This was accomplished by correlating the measured error and the forecasted uncertainty on area integrated wind speed and wind power in Denmark and Ireland. A correlation of 93% was achieved in these areas. This method cannot solve the accuracy requirements of the energy sector. By knowing the uncertainty of the forecasts, the focus can however be put on the accuracy requirements at times when it is possible to accurately predict the weather. Thus, this result presents a major step forward in making wind energy a compatible energy source in the future.

Substance misuse in young people in Ireland - a focus on benzodiazepines

Benzodiazepines are a class of drugs that are prescribed for the treatment of anxiety and insomnia. Due to the powerful tolerance that can develop as a result of sustained use, benzodiazepines can also be dependence-forming. Benzodiazepine dependence can occur from prescribed and from recreational use, and is a significant issue for young people. The consequences of benzodiazepine dependence include cognitive and learning impairment, depressive symptoms, and increased suicide risk. Despite these risks, the nature of youth benzodiazepine use has not been explored to the same extent as other drugs. A review of existing Irish literature revealed that benzodiazepines are one of the five most recreationally-used drugs among young people. Analyses of young people attending a treatment centre indicated that young attendees from urban areas were more likely to be referred to the centre because of benzodiazepines than rural attendees. Further examination of the centre’s attendees showed that regular benzodiazepine users experienced more paranoia, loss of interest in sport, and pallor than non-regular users. Analysis of benzodiazepine prescribing to young people revealed that approximately one in seven young people were prescribed benzodiazepines for periods greater than recommended by national guidelines. Young benzodiazepine users discussed in interviews that they took benzodiazepines to escape from negative feelings and that they are generally taken in a social setting. Further interviews with youth counsellors and general practitioners highlighted that both family and community attitude to benzodiazepine use can impact on a young person’s benzodiazepine usage. Suggestions for reducing benzodiazepine use such as psychological alternatives to medication, public awareness campaigns and prescribing restrictions are provided. Future research can elaborate upon this work to determine other methods of reducing youth benzodiazepine use and the damage that it causes to the young people themselves, but also to their families, their community, and society at large.

Real-Time and Data-Driven Operation Optimization and Knowledge Discovery for an Enterprise Information System

An enterprise information system (EIS) is an integrated data-applications platform characterized by diverse, heterogeneous, and distributed data sources. For many enterprises, a number of business processes still depend heavily on static rule-based methods and extensive human expertise. Enterprises are faced with the need for optimizing operation scheduling, improving resource utilization, discovering useful knowledge, and making data-driven decisions.

This thesis research is focused on real-time optimization and knowledge discovery that addresses workflow optimization, resource allocation, as well as data-driven predictions of process-execution times, order fulfillment, and enterprise service-level performance. In contrast to prior work on data analytics techniques for enterprise performance optimization, the emphasis here is on realizing scalable and real-time enterprise intelligence based on a combination of heterogeneous system simulation, combinatorial optimization, machine-learning algorithms, and statistical methods.

On-demand digital-print service is a representative enterprise requiring a powerful EIS.We use real-life data from Reischling Press, Inc. (RPI), a digit-print-service provider (PSP), to evaluate our optimization algorithms.

In order to handle the increase in volume and diversity of demands, we first present a high-performance, scalable, and real-time production scheduling algorithm for production automation based on an incremental genetic algorithm (IGA). The objective of this algorithm is to optimize the order dispatching sequence and balance resource utilization. Compared to prior work, this solution is scalable for a high volume of orders and it provides fast scheduling solutions for orders that require complex fulfillment procedures. Experimental results highlight its potential benefit in reducing production inefficiencies and enhancing the productivity of an enterprise.

We next discuss analysis and prediction of different attributes involved in hierarchical components of an enterprise. We start from a study of the fundamental processes related to real-time prediction. Our process-execution time and process status prediction models integrate statistical methods with machine-learning algorithms. In addition to improved prediction accuracy compared to stand-alone machine-learning algorithms, it also performs a probabilistic estimation of the predicted status. An order generally consists of multiple series and parallel processes. We next introduce an order-fulfillment prediction model that combines advantages of multiple classification models by incorporating flexible decision-integration mechanisms. Experimental results show that adopting due dates recommended by the model can significantly reduce enterprise late-delivery ratio. Finally, we investigate service-level attributes that reflect the overall performance of an enterprise. We analyze and decompose time-series data into different components according to their hierarchical periodic nature, perform correlation analysis,

and develop univariate prediction models for each component as well as multivariate models for correlated components. Predictions for the original time series are aggregated from the predictions of its components. In addition to a significant increase in mid-term prediction accuracy, this distributed modeling strategy also improves short-term time-series prediction accuracy.

In summary, this thesis research has led to a set of characterization, optimization, and prediction tools for an EIS to derive insightful knowledge from data and use them as guidance for production management. It is expected to provide solutions for enterprises to increase reconfigurability, accomplish more automated procedures, and obtain data-driven recommendations or effective decisions.

Development and usability testing of a Web-based decision aid for families of patients receiving prolonged mechanical ventilation.

BACKGROUND: Web-based decision aids are increasingly important in medical research and clinical care. However, few have been studied in an intensive care unit setting. The objectives of this study were to develop a Web-based decision aid for family members of patients receiving prolonged mechanical ventilation and to evaluate its usability and acceptability. METHODS: Using an iterative process involving 48 critical illness survivors, family surrogate decision makers, and intensivists, we developed a Web-based decision aid addressing goals of care preferences for surrogate decision makers of patients with prolonged mechanical ventilation that could be either administered by study staff or completed independently by family members (Development Phase). After piloting the decision aid among 13 surrogate decision makers and seven intensivists, we assessed the decision aid's usability in the Evaluation Phase among a cohort of 30 surrogate decision makers using the Systems Usability Scale (SUS). Acceptability was assessed using measures of satisfaction and preference for electronic Collaborative Decision Support (eCODES) versus the original printed decision aid. RESULTS: The final decision aid, termed 'electronic Collaborative Decision Support', provides a framework for shared decision making, elicits relevant values and preferences, incorporates clinical data to personalize prognostic estimates generated from the ProVent prediction model, generates a printable document summarizing the user's interaction with the decision aid, and can digitally archive each user session. Usability was excellent (mean SUS, 80 ± 10) overall, but lower among those 56 years and older (73 ± 7) versus those who were younger (84 ± 9); p = 0.03. A total of 93% of users reported a preference for electronic versus printed versions. CONCLUSIONS: The Web-based decision aid for ICU surrogate decision makers can facilitate highly individualized information sharing with excellent usability and acceptability. Decision aids that employ an electronic format such as eCODES represent a strategy that could enhance patient-clinician collaboration and decision making quality in intensive care.

Multiphysics modelling of the metals casting process

Metals casting is a process governed by the interaction of a range of physical phenomena. Most computational models of this process address only what are conventionally regarded as the primary phenomena-heat conduction and solidification. However, to predict the formation of porosity (a factor of key importance in cast quality) requires the modelling of the interaction of the fluid flow, heat transfer, solidification and the development of stress-deformation in the solidified part of a component. In this paper, a model of the casting process is described which addresses all the main continuum phenomena involved in a coupled manner. The model is solved numerically using novel finite volume unstructured mesh techniques, and then applied to both the prediction of shape deformation (plus the subsequent formation of a gap at the metal-mould interface and its impact on the heat transfer behaviour) and porosity formation in solidifying metal components. Although the porosity prediction model is phenomenologically simplistic it is based on the interaction of the continuum phenomena and yields good comparisons with available experimental results. This work represents the first of the next generation of casting simulation tools to predict aspects of the structure of cast components.

Explicit finite volume modeling of aircraft anti-icing and de-icing

In this paper, a runback water and ice prediction model is extended to anti-icing and thermal de-icing situations. The resulting coupled equations that govern thin-film flow, ice accretion, and heat conduction in the multilayered system substrate-ice-water are solved using an explicit finite volume approach. The procedure is implemented in the three-dimensional icing code ICECREMO2, and both structured and unstructured grids can be considered. Numerical results are presented to compare the present code simulations to some data provided by other ice prediction codes and to show the capabilities of the present numerical tool.

High-pressure volumetric properties of imidazolium-based ionic liquids: Effect of the anion

The densities of five imidazolium-based ionic liquids (ILs) (1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium tetrafluoroborate, [CiC4-Im][BF 4]; 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium hexafluorophosphate, [CiC 4Im][PF6]; 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium bis{(trifluoromethyl)sulfonyl}imide, [C1C4Im][Tf 2N]; 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazoliumbis{(trifluoromethyl)sulfonyl}-imide, [C1C2Im][Tf2N]; l-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium ethylsulfate, [C1C2Im][EtSO4]) were measured as a function of temperature from (293 to 415) K and over an extended pressure range from (0.1 to 40) MPa using a vibratingtube densimeter. Knowledge of the variation of the density with temperature and pressure allows access to the mechanical coefficients: thermal expansion coefficient and isothermal compressibility. The effects of the anion and of the length of the alkyl chain on the imidazolium ring on the volumetric properties were particularly examined. The mechanical coefficients were compared with those of common organic solvents, water and liquid NaCl. Finally, a prediction model, based on an "ideal" volumetric behavior of the ILs, is proposed to allow calculation of the molar volume of imidazolium-based ionic liquids as a function of temperature. ©2007 American Chemical Society.