Institutional response and Indigenous experiences of Cyclone Tracy

Early on Christmas morning 1974 Tropical Cyclone Tracy, a Category 4 storm, devastated the Northern Territory city of Darwin leaving only 6% of the city’s housing habitable. The extent of the disaster was largely the result of unregulated and poorly constructed buildings, predominantly housing. While the engineering and reconstruction process demonstrated a very successful response and adaptation to an existing and future risk, the impact of the cyclone of the local community and its Indigenous population in particular, had not been well recorded. NCCARF therefore commissioned a report on the Indigenous experience of Cyclone Tracy to document how Indigenous people were impacted by, responded to, and recovered from Cyclone Tracy in comparison to non-Indigenous groups. The report also considers the research literature on disasters and Indigenous people in the Northern Territory, with a specific focus on cyclones, and considers the socio-political context of Indigenous communities in Darwin prior to Cyclone Tracy.

Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

Idealised simulation of downburst winds

Convectively driven downburst winds pose a threat to structures and communities in many regions of Australia not subject to tropical cyclones. Extreme value analysis shows that for return periods of interest to engineering design these events produce higher gust wind speeds than synoptic scale windstorms. Despite this, comparatively little is known of the near ground wind structure of these potentially hazardous windstorms. With this in mind, a series of idealised three-dimensional numerical simulations were undertaken to investigate convective storm wind fields. A dry, non-hydrostatic, sub-cloud model with parameterisation of the microphysics was used. Simulations were run with a uniform 20 m horizontal grid resolution and a variable vertical resolution increasing from 1 m. A systematic grid resolution study showed further refinement did not alter the morphological structure of the outflow. Simulations were performed for stationary downbursts in a quiescent air field, stationary downbursts embedded within environmental boundary layer winds, and also translating downbursts embedded within environmental boundary layer winds.

Extreme water level exceedance probabilities around Australia

The potential impacts of extreme water level events on our coasts are increasing as populations grow and sea levels rise. To better prepare for the future, coastal engineers and managers need accurate estimates of average exceedance probabilities for extreme water levels. In this paper, we estimate present day probabilities of extreme water levels around the entire coastline of Australia. Tides and storm surges generated by extra-tropical storms were included by creating a 61-year (1949-2009) hindcast of water levels using a high resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model driven with meteorological data from a global reanalysis. Tropical cyclone-induced surges were included through numerical modelling of a database of synthetic tropical cyclones equivalent to 10,000 years of cyclone activity around Australia. Predicted water level data was analysed using extreme value theory to construct return period curves for both the water level hindcast and synthetic tropical cyclone modelling. These return period curves were then combined by taking the highest water level at each return period.

Perils to people and property : valuation practices in a water world

Recent international experiences have reinforced the peril to people and property from rising sea levels and associated water events. The related risks, while perhaps more obvious for properties located in coastal regions, can also impact upon inland properties. These risks are slowly influencing changes to planning practices and attitudes. This paper examines these risks from the perspective of land values and identifies the matters, and processes, that should be adopted in valuation practices.

Absent interiors

Anuradha Mathur and Dilip da Cunha theorise in their work on cities and flooding that it is not the floodwaters that threaten lives and homes, the real cause of danger in natural disaster is the fixity of modern civilisation. Their work traces the fluidity of the boundaries between 'dry' and 'wet' land challenging the deficiencies of traditional cartography in representing the extents of bodies of water. Mathur and da Cunha propose a process of unthinking to address the redevelopment of communities in the aftermath of natural disaster. By documenting the path of floodwaters in non-Euclidean space they propose a more appropriate response to flooding. This research focuses on the documentation of flooding in the interior of dwellings, which is an extreme condition of damage by external conditions in an environment designed to protect from these very elements. Because the floodwaters don't discriminate between the interior and the exterior, they move between structures with disregard for the systems of space we have in place. With the rapid clean up that follows flood damage, little material evidence is left for post mortem examination. This is especially the case for the flood damaged interior, piles of materials susceptible to the elements, furniture, joinery and personal objects line curbsides awaiting disposal. There is a missed opportunity in examining the interior in the after math of flood, in the way that Mathur and Dilip investigate floods and the design of cities, the flooded interior proffers an undersigned interior to study. In the absence of intact flood damaged interior, this research relies on two artists' documentation of the flooded interior. The first case study is the mimetic scenographic interiors of a flood-damaged office exhibited in the Bangkok art gallery by the group _Proxy in 2011. The second case study is Robert Polidori's photographic exhibition in New Orleans, described by Julianna Preston as, 'a series of interiors undetected by satellite imaging or storm radar. More telling, more dramatic, more unnerving, more alarming, they force a disturbance of what is familiar'.

The French polisher and the unsentimental interior

In January 2011 a swollen Brisbane River broke its banks flooding riverside houses and buildings. The river’s water spread and rose up through storm water drains inundating some 20 000 houses in low-lying land. As the water receded those residents affected by the floods returned to their homes to assess the damage. While some people breathed a sigh of relief others were devastated by the overwhelming damage to their homes and personal belongings. Over the next few weeks the landscape of Brisbane was altered not merely by the mud and debris left by the torrent of water, but by the piles of domestic contents occupying Brisbane streets. Beds, toys, cabinets, plasterboard, tiles and household furniture lined curbsides waiting for collection. Later they would accumulate in public parks and sports centres to await disposal, momentarily creating an unsettling landscape of discarded domestic interiors. While most houses remained standing the heart breaking repercussions were evident in their interiority. Thousands of volunteers flocked to help those affected by the floods to purge the damage left by the water – removing wall and floor linings, discarding furniture and spoilt belongings. In her paper on Hurricane Katrina, Julieanna Preston wrote, ‘What anthropological evidence would we find as we followed their migration – heaps left by the side of the road, the physical weight overcoming the personal value…’ For many of the post flood restored homes and buildings entire interiors have been replaced, eradicating any trace of the significant event that disturbed them only months earlier. There were artifacts that would have survived the floods - furniture of solid timber – these were discarded and with them the patina that marked an important event in history. The patina is beyond technological reproducibility, and as Walter Benjamin writes, this being the whole premise of genuineness. It is the role of the French Polisher to maintain the true wear of the artefact for it is the patina that is most valuable in its ability to narrate the history of a piece. In 2012 two separate exhibitions in Brisbane will take place to display a selected collection of flood-damaged artefacts. This orchestrated way to commemorate the damage left by floods may be a method to compensate for the haste in which the damage was purged from the city. This need for exhibiting damaged artifacts illustrates Andreas Huyssen’s point that "…today memory is understood as a mode of re-presentation and as belonging to the present." This research looks at the dying trade of the French Polisher through conversations and a visual study of flood damaged furniture. The research also investigates the personal loss of artifacts through intimate stories shared by flood victims. This paper seeks to understand why so much was discarded and celebrate what remains.

Stabilization of experimental bioretention basins during intermittent wetting and drying

Stormwater bioretention basins are subjected to spontaneous intermittent wetting and drying, unlike water treatment filter systems that are subjected to continuous feed. Drinking water filters when constructed new or after back-wash, are subjected to a phase of stabilization. Experiments show that bioretention basins are similarly impacted by intermittent wetting and drying. The common parameter monitored in the stabilisation of filters is the concentration of total solids in the outflow. Filter media in bioretention basins however, consists of a mix of particulate organic matter and fine sand. Organic carbon and solids are therefore needed to be monitored. Four Perspex bioretention filter columns of 94 mm (ID) were packed with a filter layer (800 mm), transition layer and a gravel layer and operated with synthetic stormwater in the laboratory. The filter layer contained 8% organic material by weight. A free board of 350 mm provided detention storage and head to facilitate infiltration. Synthetic stormwater was prepared by adding NH4NO3 (ammonium nitrate) and C2H5NO2 (glycine) and a mixture of kaolinite and montmorillonite clay, to tapwater. The columns were fed with synthetic stormwater with different Antecedent Dry Days (ADD) (0 – 25 day) and constant inflow concentration (2 ppm: nitrate-nitrogen, 1.5 ppm: ammonium-nitrogen, 2.5 ppm: organic-nitrogen 100 ppm: total suspended solids and 7 ppm: organic carbon) at a feed rate of 100mL.min (85.7cm/h). Samples were collected from the outflow at different time intervals between 2 – 150 min from the start of outflow and were tested for Total Suspended Solids (TSS) and Total Organic Carbon (TOC). Both TSS and TOC concentrations in the outflow were observed to be much higher than the concentration of both the parameters in the inflow during the stabilisation period indicating a phase of wash-off (first flush) which lasted for approximately 30 min for both parameters at the beginning of each storm event. The wash-off of TSS and TOC were found to be highly variable depending on the age of the filter and the number of antecedent dry days. The duration of stabilisation phase in the experiments is significant compared with many of the stormwater events. A computational analysis on total mass of each pollutant further affirmed the significance of the first flush of an event on removal of these pollutants. Therefore, the kinetics of the first flush in the stabilisation phase needs to be considered in the performance analysis of the systems.

Toowoomba floods

TOOWOOMBA has been inundated with flood water following a freak storm that smashed roads and swept away cars. Amanda Gearing REPORTS.

Learning through modelling in the primary years

Many nations are highlighting the need for a renaissance in the mathematical sciences as essential to the well-being of all citizens (e.g., Australian Academy of Science, 2006; 2010; The National Academies, 2009). Indeed, the first recommendation of The National Academies’ Rising Above the Storm (2007) was to vastly improve K–12 science and mathematics education. The subsequent report, Rising Above the Gathering Storm Two Years Later (2009), highlighted again the need to target mathematics and science from the earliest years of schooling: “It takes years or decades to build the capability to have a society that depends on science and technology . . . You need to generate the scientists and engineers, starting in elementary and middle school” (p. 9). Such pleas reflect the rapidly changing nature of problem solving and reasoning needed in today’s world, beyond the classroom. As The National Academies (2009) reported, “Today the problems are more complex than they were in the 1950s, and more global. They’ll require a new educated workforce, one that is more open, collaborative, and cross-disciplinary” (p. 19). The implications for the problem solving experiences we implement in schools are far-reaching. In this chapter, I consider problem solving and modelling in the primary school, beginning with the need to rethink the experiences we provide in the early years. I argue for a greater awareness of the learning potential of young children and the need to provide stimulating learning environments. I then focus on data modelling as a powerful means of advancing children’s statistical reasoning abilities, which they increasingly need as they navigate their data-drenched world.

Influence of pollutant build-up on variability in wash-off from urban road surfaces

Variability in the pollutant wash-off process is a concept which needs to be understood in-depth in order to better assess the outcomes of stormwater quality models, and thereby strengthen stormwater pollution mitigation strategies. Current knowledge about the wash-off process does not extend to a clear understanding of the influence of the initially available pollutant build-up on the variability of the pollutant wash-off load and composition. Consequently, pollutant wash-off process variability is poorly characterised in stormwater quality models, which can result in inaccurate stormwater quality predictions. Mathematical simulation of particulate wash-off from three urban road surfaces confirmed that the wash-off load of particle size fractions <150µm and >150µm after a storm event vary with the build-up of the respective particle size fractions available at the beginning of the storm event. Furthermore, pollutant load and composition associated with the initially available build-up of <150µm particles predominantly influence the variability in washed-off pollutant load and composition. The influence of the build-up of pollutants associated with >150µm particles on wash-off process variability is significant only for relatively shorter duration storm events.

Environmental context for late Holocene human occupation of the South Wellesley Archipelago, Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia

A 2400 year record of environmental change is reported from a wetland on Bentinck Island in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia. Three phases of wetland development are identified, with a protected coastal setting from ca. 2400 to 500 years ago, transitioning into an estuarine mangrove forest from ca. 500 years ago to the 1940s, and finally to a freshwater swamp over the past +60 years. This sequence reflects the influence of falling sea-levels, development of a coastal dune barrier system, prograding shorelines, and an extreme storm (cyclone) event. In addition, there is clear evidence of the impacts that human abandonment and resettlement have on the island's fire regimes and vegetation. A dramatic increase in burning and vegetation thickening was observed after the cessation of traditional Indigenous Kaiadilt fire management practices in the 1940s, and was then reversed when people returned to the island in the 1980s. In terms of the longer context for human occupation of the South Wellesley Archipelago, it is apparent that the mangrove phase provided a stable and productive environment that was conducive for human settlement of this region over the past 1000 years.

Mauve: How one man invented the colour that changed the world

In an essay, "The Books of Last Things", Delia Falconer discusses the emergence of a new genre in publishing - microhistories. She cites a number of recent titles in non-fiction and fiction - Longitude, Cod, Tulips, Pushkin's Button, Nathaniel's Nutmeg, Zarafa, The Surgeon of Crowthorne, The Potato, The Perfect Storm. Delia Falconer observes of this tradition: "One has the sense, reading these books, of a surprising weight, of pleasant shock. In part, it is because we are looking at things which are generally present around us, but modestly out of sight and mind - historical nitty gritty like cod, potatoes, longitudinal clocks - which the authors have thrust suddenly, like a Biblical visitation of frogs or locusts, in our face. Things like spice and buttons and clocks are generally seen to enable history on the large scale, but are not often viewed as its worthy subjects. And by the same grand logic of history, more unusual phenomena like cabinets of curiosities or glass-making or farm lore or sailors' knots are simply odd blips on its radar screen, interesting footnotes. These new books, microhistories, reverse the usual order of history, which argues from the general to the particular, in order to prove its inevitable progress. They start from the footnotes. But by reversing the process, and walking through the back door of history, you don't necessarily end up at the front of the same house." Delia Falconer speculates about the reasons for the popularity of microhistories. She concludes: "I would like to think that reading them is not simply an exercise in nostalgia, but a challenge to the present". In Mauve, Simon Garfield provides a new way of thinking and writing about the history of intellectual property. Instead of providing a grand historical narrative of intellectual property, he tells the story of a particular invention, and its exploitation. Simon Garfield relates how English chemist William Perkin accidentally discovered a way to mass-produce colour mauve in a factory. Working on a treatment for malaria in his London home laboratory, Perkin failed to produce artificial quinine. Instead he created a dark oily sludge that turned silk a beautiful light purple. The colour was unique and became the most desirable shade in the fashion houses of Paris and London. ... The book Mauve will have a number of contemporary resonances for intellectual property lawyers and academics. Simon Garfield emphasizes the difficulties inherent in commercialising an invention and managing intellectual property. He investigates the uneasy collaboration between industry and science. Simon Garfield suggests that complaints about the efficacy of patent offices are perennial. He also highlights the problems faced by courts and law-makers in accommodating new technologies within the logic of patent law. In his elegant microhistory of the colour mauve, Simon Garfield confirms the conclusion of Brad Sherman and Lionel Bently that many aspects of modern intellectual property law can only be understood through an understanding of the past: "The image of intellectual property law that developed during the 19th century and the narrative of identity which this engendered played and continue to play an important role in the way we think about and understand intellectual property law".

Genetic studies of osteoporosis: A rethink required

It has been 10 years since the seminal paper by Morrison and colleagues reporting the association of alleles of the vitamin D receptor and bone density [1], a paper which arguably kick-started the study of osteoporosis genetics. Since that report there have been literally thousands of osteoporosis genetic studies published, and large numbers of genes have been reported to be associated with the condition [2]. Although some of these reported associations are undoubtedly true, this snow-storm of papers and abstracts has clouded the field to such a great extent that it is very difficult to be certain of the veracity of most genetic associations reported hereto. The field needs to take stock and reconsider the best way forward, taking into account the biology of skeletal development and technological and statistical advances in human genetics, before more effort and money is wasted on continuing a process in which the primary achievement could be said to be a massive paper mountain. I propose in this review that the primary reasons for the paucity of success in osteoporosis genetics has been: •the absence of a major gene effect on bone mineral density (BMD), the most commonly studied bone phenotype; •failure to consider issues such as genetic heterogeneity, gene–environment interaction, and gene–gene interaction; •small sample sizes and over-optimistic data interpretation; and •incomplete assessment of the genetic variation in candidate genes studied.

Cyclone-induced mixing does not cool SST in the post-monsoon north Bay of Bengal

High-resolution data from the TRMM satellite shows that sea surface temperature (SST) cools by 3 degrees C under the tracks of pre-monsoon tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean. However, even the strongest post-monsoon cyclones do not cool the open north Bay of Bengal. In this region, a shallow layer of freshwater from river runoff and monsoon rain caps a deep warm layer. Therefore, storm-induced mixing is not deep, and it entrains warm subsurface water. It is possible that the hydrography of the post-monsoon north Bay favours intense cyclones.