Modelling mortality: Are we heading in the right direction?

Predicting life expectancy has become of upmost importance in society. Pension providers, insurance companies, government bodies and individuals in the developed world have a vested interest in understanding how long people will live for. This desire to better understand life expectancy has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models many of which identify linear trends in mortality rates by time. In making use of such models for forecasting purposes we rely on the assumption that the direction of the linear trend (determined from the data used for fitting purposes) will not change in the future, recent literature has started to question this assumption. In this paper we carry out a comprehensive investigation of these types of models using male and female data from 30 countries and using the theory of structural breaks to identify changes in the extracted trends by time. We find that structural breaks are present in a substantial number of cases, that they are more prevalent in male data than in female data, that the introduction of additional period factors into the model reduces their presence, and that allowing for changes in the trend improves the fit and forecast substantially.

A study of singular integral operators with shift

Nesta tese, consideram-se operadores integrais singulares com a acção extra de um operador de deslocacamento de Carleman e com coeficientes em diferentes classes de funções essencialmente limitadas. Nomeadamente, funções contínuas por troços, funções quase-periódicas e funções possuíndo factorização generalizada. Nos casos dos operadores integrais singulares com deslocamento dado pelo operador de reflexão ou pelo operador de salto no círculo unitário complexo, obtêm-se critérios para a propriedade de Fredholm. Para os coeficientes contínuos, uma fórmula do índice de Fredholm é apresentada. Estes resultados são consequência das relações de equivalência explícitas entre aqueles operadores e alguns operadores adicionais, tais como o operador integral singular, operadores de Toeplitz e operadores de Toeplitz mais Hankel. Além disso, as relações de equivalência permitem-nos obter um critério de invertibilidade e fórmulas para os inversos laterais dos operadores iniciais com coeficientes factorizáveis. Adicionalmente, aplicamos técnicas de análise numérica, tais como métodos de colocação de polinómios, para o estudo da dimensão do núcleo dos dois tipos de operadores integrais singulares com coeficientes contínuos por troços. Esta abordagem permite também a computação do inverso no sentido Moore-Penrose dos operadores principais. Para operadores integrais singulares com operadores de deslocamento do tipo Carleman preservando a orientação e com funções contínuas como coeficientes, são obtidos limites superiores da dimensão do núcleo. Tal é implementado utilizando algumas estimativas e com a ajuda de relações (explícitas) de equivalência entre operadores. Focamos ainda a nossa atenção na resolução e nas soluções de uma classe de equações integrais singulares com deslocamento que não pode ser reduzida a um problema de valor de fronteira binomial. De forma a atingir os objectivos propostos, foram utilizadas projecções complementares e identidades entre operadores. Desta forma, as equações em estudo são associadas a sistemas de equações integrais singulares. Estes sistemas são depois analisados utilizando um problema de valor de fronteira de Riemann. Este procedimento tem como consequência a construção das soluções das equações iniciais a partir das soluções de problemas de valor de fronteira de Riemann. Motivados por uma grande diversidade de aplicações, estendemos a definição de operador integral de Cauchy para espaços de Lebesgue sobre grupos topológicos. Assim, são investigadas as condições de invertibilidade dos operadores integrais neste contexto.

‘Is there a right time for gender just peace? Feminist anti-war organising revisited’

This paper addresses the question of totalising gender power relations that have led to and shaped the wars of the 1990s in Yugoslavia and the emerging ethno-national states on the ‘periphery’ of Europe. I argue that the same type of gender power relations continue to dominate the region, notably Serbia, and to perpetuate gender inequalities and gender based violence in its many everyday and structural forms, causing profound levels of human insecurity. My analysis aims to set in motion a debate on how to tackle these continuing gender inequalities and GBV in post-war societies. In so doing, I propose a shift from focusing on the hierarchy of victimisation that has characterised much of the feminist analyses, activism and scholarly work in relation to these (and other) conflicts, to a relational understanding of the gendered processes of victimisation in war and peace, that is - of both women and men. Such an approach holds a potential to undermine the power systems that engender these varied types of victimisation by ultimately reshaping the notions of masculinity and femininity, which are central to the gender power systems that generate gender unjust peace.

Choosing the Right Promotional Tool in the Hotel Industry: The Case of the Chinese Consumer.

The rapid growth of the Chinese tourism has stimulated competition within tourism-related industries, such as the hospitality industry. The purpose of this study is to examine the Chinese consumer reaction to different promotional tools used by hotels in China and, thus, to provide a deeper understanding for marketers of how to use sales promotion effectively to generate appropriate consumer responses. An experimental survey was administered yielding a total sample of 319 Chinese customers, who were probed using different types of sales promotion tools. Data analysis indicates that bonus packs (e.g. a 3-night stay at a hotel for the price of 2) induced the highest consumer perceived value, brand switching, and purchase acceleration intention, whereas price discounts resulted in the highest intention to spend more. Although this study has its limitations given its reliance on a convenience sample, it offers insightful practical implications for hotel business owners in Asia regarding targeting the right customers with the right promotional tools, where it is proposed that bonus packs successfully attract new Chinese customers and price discounts support in generating more sales.

On the 'inherent' character of the right of states to self-defence

While there is no lack of studies on the use of armed force by states in self-defence, its qualification as an ‘inherent right’ in article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations has received little scholarly attention and has been too quickly dismissed as having no significance. The present article fills this gap in the literature. Its purpose is not to discuss the limits to which article 51 or customary international law submit the exercise of the right of self-defence by states, but to examine what its 'inherent’ character means and what legal consequences it entails. The article advances two main arguments. The first is that self-defence is a corollary of statehood as presently understood because it is essential to preserving its constitutive elements. The second argument is that the exercise of the right of self-defence must be distinguished from the right itself: it is only the former that may be delegated to other states or submitted to limitations under customary international law and treaty law. The right of self-defence, however, cannot be alienated and it takes precedence over other international obligations, although not over those specifically intended to limit the conduct of states in armed conflict or over non-derogable human rights provisions.

Argonauta Video Database: General simulated scenes. Scene 1 (Right camera)

General simulated scenes These scenes followed a pre-defined script (see the Thesis for details), with common movements corresponding to general experiments. People go to or stand still in front of "J9", and/or go to the side of Argonauta reactor and come back again. The first type of movement is common during Irradiation experiments, where a material sample is put within the "J9" channel; and also during neutrongraphy or gammagraphy experiments, where a sample is placed in front of "J9". Here, the detailed movements of putting samples on these places were not reproduced in details, but only the whole bodies' movements were simulated (as crouching or being still in front of "J9"). The second type of movement may occur when operators go to the side of Argonauta to verify some operational condition. - Scene 1 (Obs.: Scene 1 of the "General simulated scenes" class): Comprises one of the scenes with two persons. Both of them use clothes of light colors. Both persons remain still in front of "J9"; one goes to the computer and then come back, and both go out. Video file labels: "20140326145315_IPCAM": recorded by the right camera,

Argonauta Video Database: Spectrography experiment. Scene 1 (Right câmera)

Scenes for Spectrography experiment Scenes were recorded following the tasks involved in spectrography experiments, which are carried out in front of "J9" output radiadion channel, the latter in open condition. These tasks may be executed by one or two persons. One person can do the tasks, but requiring him to crouch in front of "J9" to adjust the angular position the experimental appartus (a crystal to bend the neutron radiation to the spectograph), and then to get up to verify data in a computer aside; these movements are repeated until achieving the right operational conditions. Two people may aid one another in such a way one remais crouched while the other remains still in front of the computer. They may also interchange tasks so as to divide received doses. Up to now, there are available two scenes with one person and one scene with two persons. These scenes are described in the sequel: - Scene 1: Comprises one of the scenes with one person performing spectography experiment. Video file labels: "20140327181335_IPCAM": recorded by the right camera

Argonauta Video Database: General simulated. Scene 2 (Right camera)

General simulated scenes These scenes followed a pre-defined script (see the Thesis for details), with common movements corresponding to general experiments. People go to or stand still in front of "J9", and/or go to the side of Argonauta reactor and come back again. The first type of movement is common during Irradiation experiments, where a material sample is put within the "J9" channel; and also during neutrongraphy or gammagraphy experiments, where a sample is placed in front of "J9". Here, the detailed movements of putting samples on these places were not reproduced in details, but only the whole bodies' movements were simulated (as crouching or being still in front of "J9"). The second type of movement may occur when operators go to the side of Argonauta to verify some operational condition. - Scene 2: Comprises one of the scenes with two persons. Both of them use clothes of dark colors. Both persons go to the side of Argonauta reactor and then come back and go out. Video file labels: "20140326154754_IPCAM": recorded by the right camera.

Argonauta Video Database: Spectography experiment. Scene 2 (Right camera)

Scenes for Spectrography experiment Scenes were recorded following the tasks involved in spectrography experiments, which are carried out in front of "J9" output radiadion channel, the latter in open condition. These tasks may be executed by one or two persons. One person can do the tasks, but requiring him to crouch in front of "J9" to adjust the angular position the experimental appartus (a crystal to bend the neutron radiation to the spectograph), and then to get up to verify data in a computer aside; these movements are repeated until achieving the right operational conditions. Two people may aid one another in such a way one remais crouched while the other remains still in front of the computer. They may also interchange tasks so as to divide received doses. Up to now, there are available two scenes with one person and one scene with two persons. These scenes are described in the sequel: - Scene 2: Another take similat to Scene 1. Video file labels: "20140327180749_IPCAM": recorded by the right camera.

Argonauta Video Database: Spectography experiment. Scene 3 (Right camera)

Scenes for Spectrography experiment Scenes were recorded following the tasks involved in spectrography experiments, which are carried out in front of "J9" output radiadion channel, the latter in open condition. These tasks may be executed by one or two persons. One person can do the tasks, but requiring him to crouch in front of "J9" to adjust the angular position the experimental appartus (a crystal to bend the neutron radiation to the spectograph), and then to get up to verify data in a computer aside; these movements are repeated until achieving the right operational conditions. Two people may aid one another in such a way one remais crouched while the other remains still in front of the computer. They may also interchange tasks so as to divide received doses. Up to now, there are available two scenes with one person and one scene with two persons. These scenes are described in the sequel: - Scene 3: Comprises the scene with two persons performing spectography experiment. Video file labels: "20140327182905_IPCAM": recorded by the right camera.