Exploring physical processes related to past climate proxies: lake sediments and stable water isotopes

Proxy data are essential for the investigation of climate variability on time scales larger than the historical meteorological observation period. The potential value of a proxy depends on our ability to understand and quantify the physical processes that relate the corresponding climate parameter and the signal in the proxy archive. These processes can be explored under present-day conditions. In this thesis, both statistical and physical models are applied for their analysis, focusing on two specific types of proxies, lake sediment data and stable water isotopes.rnIn the first part of this work, the basis is established for statistically calibrating new proxies from lake sediments in western Germany. A comprehensive meteorological and hydrological data set is compiled and statistically analyzed. In this way, meteorological times series are identified that can be applied for the calibration of various climate proxies. A particular focus is laid on the investigation of extreme weather events, which have rarely been the objective of paleoclimate reconstructions so far. Subsequently, a concrete example of a proxy calibration is presented. Maxima in the quartz grain concentration from a lake sediment core are compared to recent windstorms. The latter are identified from the meteorological data with the help of a newly developed windstorm index, combining local measurements and reanalysis data. The statistical significance of the correlation between extreme windstorms and signals in the sediment is verified with the help of a Monte Carlo method. This correlation is fundamental for employing lake sediment data as a new proxy to reconstruct windstorm records of the geological past.rnThe second part of this thesis deals with the analysis and simulation of stable water isotopes in atmospheric vapor on daily time scales. In this way, a better understanding of the physical processes determining these isotope ratios can be obtained, which is an important prerequisite for the interpretation of isotope data from ice cores and the reconstruction of past temperature. In particular, the focus here is on the deuterium excess and its relation to the environmental conditions during evaporation of water from the ocean. As a basis for the diagnostic analysis and for evaluating the simulations, isotope measurements from Rehovot (Israel) are used, provided by the Weizmann Institute of Science. First, a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic is employed in order to establish quantitative linkages between the measurements and the evaporation conditions of the vapor (and thus to calibrate the isotope signal). A strong negative correlation between relative humidity in the source regions and measured deuterium excess is found. On the contrary, sea surface temperature in the evaporation regions does not correlate well with deuterium excess. Although requiring confirmation by isotope data from different regions and longer time scales, this weak correlation might be of major importance for the reconstruction of moisture source temperatures from ice core data. Second, the Lagrangian source diagnostic is combined with a Craig-Gordon fractionation parameterization for the identified evaporation events in order to simulate the isotope ratios at Rehovot. In this way, the Craig-Gordon model can be directly evaluated with atmospheric isotope data, and better constraints for uncertain model parameters can be obtained. A comparison of the simulated deuterium excess with the measurements reveals that a much better agreement can be achieved using a wind speed independent formulation of the non-equilibrium fractionation factor instead of the classical parameterization introduced by Merlivat and Jouzel, which is widely applied in isotope GCMs. Finally, the first steps of the implementation of water isotope physics in the limited-area COSMO model are described, and an approach is outlined that allows to compare simulated isotope ratios to measurements in an event-based manner by using a water tagging technique. The good agreement between model results from several case studies and measurements at Rehovot demonstrates the applicability of the approach. Because the model can be run with high, potentially cloud-resolving spatial resolution, and because it contains sophisticated parameterizations of many atmospheric processes, a complete implementation of isotope physics will allow detailed, process-oriented studies of the complex variability of stable isotopes in atmospheric waters in future research.rn

Stable isotope composition of atmospheric carbon monoxide : a modelling study

Stable isotope composition of atmospheric carbon monoxide: A modelling study.rnrnThis study aims at an improved understanding of the stable carbon and oxygen isotope composition of the carbon monoxide (CO) in the global atmosphere by means of numerical simulations. At first, a new kinetic chemistry tagging technique for the most complete parameterisation of isotope effects has been introduced into the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) framework. Incorporated into the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) general circulation model, an explicit treatment of the isotope effects on the global scale is now possible. The expanded model system has been applied to simulate the chemical system containing up to five isotopologues of all carbon- and oxygen-bearing species, which ultimately determine the δ13C, δ18O and Δ17O isotopic signatures of atmospheric CO. As model input, a new stable isotope-inclusive emission inventory for the relevant trace gases has been compiled. The uncertainties of the emission estimates and of the resulting simulated mixing and isotope ratios have been analysed. The simulated CO mixing and stable isotope ratios have been compared to in-situ measurements from ground-based observatories and from the civil-aircraft-mounted CARIBIC−1 measurement platform.rnrnThe systematically underestimated 13CO/12CO ratios of earlier, simplified modelling studies can now be partly explained. The EMAC simulations do not support the inferences of those studies, which suggest for CO a reduced input of the highly depleted in 13C methane oxidation source. In particular, a high average yield of 0.94 CO per reacted methane (CH4) molecule is simulated in the troposphere, to a large extent due to the competition between the deposition and convective transport processes affecting the CH4 to CO reaction chain intermediates. None of the other factors, assumed or disregarded in previous studies, however hypothesised to have the potential in enriching tropospheric CO in 13C, were found significant when explicitly simulated. The inaccurate surface emissions, likely underestimated over East Asia, are responsible for roughly half of the discrepancies between the simulated and observed 13CO in the northern hemisphere (NH), whereas the remote southern hemisphere (SH) compositions suggest an underestimated fractionation during the oxidation of CO by the hydroxyl radical (OH). A reanalysis of the kinetic isotope effect (KIE) in this reaction contrasts the conventional assumption of a mere pressure dependence, and instead suggests an additional temperature dependence of the 13C KIE, which is driven by changes in the partitioning of the reaction exit channels. This result is yet to be confirmed in the laboratory.rnrnApart from 13CO, for the first time the atmospheric distribution of the oxygen mass-independent fractionation (MIF) in CO, Δ17O, has been consistently simulated on the global scale with EMAC. The applicability of Δ17O(CO) observations to unravelling changes in the tropospheric CH4-CO-OH system has been scrutinised, as well as the implications of the ozone (O3) input to the CO isotope oxygen budget. The Δ17O(CO) is confirmed to be the principal signal for the CO photochemical age, thus providing a measure for the OH chiefly involved in the sink of CO. The highly mass-independently fractionated O3 oxygen is estimated to comprise around 2% of the overall tropospheric CO source, which has implications for the δ18O, but less likely for the Δ17O CO budgets. Finally, additional sensitivity simulations with EMAC corroborate the nearly equal net effects of the present-day CH4 and CO burdens in removing tropospheric OH, as well as the large turnover and stability of the abundance of the latter. The simulated CO isotopologues nonetheless hint at a likely insufficient OH regeneration in the NH high latitudes and the upper troposphere / lower stratosphere (UTLS).rn

A study of air-sea interaction processes on water mass formation and upwelling in the Mediterranean sea

Air-sea interactions are a key process in the forcing of the ocean circulation and the climate. Water Mass Formation is a phenomenon related to extreme air-sea exchanges and heavy heat losses by the water column, being capable to transfer water properties from the surface to great depth and constituting a fundamental component of the thermohaline circulation of the ocean. Wind-driven Coastal Upwelling, on the other hand, is capable to induce intense heat gain in the water column, making this phenomenon important for climate change; further, it can have a noticeable influence on many biological pelagic ecosystems mechanisms. To study some of the fundamental characteristics of Water Mass Formation and Coastal Upwelling phenomena in the Mediterranean Sea, physical reanalysis obtained from the Mediterranean Forecating System model have been used for the period ranging from 1987 to 2012. The first chapter of this dissertation gives the basic description of the Mediterranean Sea circulation, the MFS model implementation, and the air-sea interaction physics. In the second chapter, the problem of Water Mass Formation in the Mediterranean Sea is approached, also performing ad-hoc numerical simulations to study heat balance components. The third chapter considers the study of Mediterranean Coastal Upwelling in some particular areas (Sicily, Gulf of Lion, Aegean Sea) of the Mediterranean Basin, together with the introduction of a new Upwelling Index to characterize and predict upwelling features using only surface estimates of air-sea fluxes. Our conclusions are that latent heat flux is the driving air-sea heat balance component in the Water Mass Formation phenomenon, while sensible heat exchanges are fundamental in Coastal Upwelling process. It is shown that our upwelling index is capable to reproduce the vertical velocity patterns in Coastal Upwelling areas. Nondimensional Marshall numbers evaluations for the open-ocean convection process in the Gulf of Lion show that it is a fully turbulent, three-dimensional phenomenon.

Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions and an increase of the low- to mid-tropospheric moisture. Furthermore, the jet stream position (during ≥5-year return level events) supports the eastern basin being in a divergence area, where ascent motions are favoured. Our results contribute to an improved understanding of daily precipitation extremes in the cold season and associated large scale atmospheric features.

Variation in partner notification outcomes for chlamydia in UK genitourinary medicine clinics: multilevel study

Objectives To compare different ways of measuring partner notification (PN) outcomes with published audit standards, examine variability between clinics and examine factors contributing to variation in PN outcomes in genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics in the UK. Methods Reanalysis of the 2007 BASHH national chlamydia audit. The primary outcome was the number of partners per index case tested for chlamydia, as verified by a healthcare worker or, if missing, reported by the patient. Control charts were used to examine variation between clinics considering missing values as zero or excluding missing values. Hierarchical logistic regression was used to investigate factors contributing to variation in outcomes. Results Data from 4616 individuals in 169 genitourinary medicine clinics were analysed. There was no information about the primary outcome in 41% of records. The mean number of partners tested for chlamydia ranged from 0 to 1.5 per index case per clinic. The median across all clinics was 0.47 when missing values were assumed to be zero and 0.92 per index case when missing values were excluded. Men who have sex with men were less likely than heterosexual men and patients with symptoms (4-week look-back period) were less likely than asymptomatic patients (6-month look-back) to report having one or more partners tested for chlamydia. There was no association between the primary outcome and the type of the health professional giving the PN advice. Conclusions The completeness of PN outcomes recorded in clinical notes needs to improve. Further research is needed to identify auditable measures that are associated with successful PN that prevents repeated chlamydia in index cases.

Meta-analysis of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors in patients with depression and coronary heart disease

The occurrence of depression in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) substantially increases the likelihood of a poorer cardiovascular prognosis. Although antidepressants are generally effective in decreasing depression, their use in patients with CHD is controversial. We carried out a meta-analysis to evaluate the health effects of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) versus placebo or no antidepressants in patients with CHD and depression. Observational studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were searched in MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Cochrane Controlled Clinical Trial Register and other trial registries, and references of relevant articles. Primary outcomes were readmission for CHD (including myocardial infarction, unstable angina, and stroke) and all-cause mortality; the secondary outcome was severity of depression symptoms. Seven articles on 6 RCTs involving 2,461 participants were included. One study incorrectly randomized participants, and another was a reanalysis of RCT data. These were considered observational and analyzed separately. When only properly randomized trials were considered (n = 734 patients), patients on SSRIs showed no significant differences in mortality (risk ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.08 to 2.01) or CHD readmission rates (0.74, 0.44 to 1.23) compared to controls. Conversely, when all studies were included, SSRI use was associated with a significant decrease in CHD readmission (0.63, 0.46 to 0.86) and mortality rates (0.56, 0.35 to 0.88). A significantly greater improvement in depression symptoms was always apparent in patients on SSRIs with all selected indicators. In conclusion, in patients with CHD and depression, SSRI medication decreases depression symptoms and may improve CHD prognosis.

Early ship-based upper-air data and comparison with the Twentieth Century

Extension of 3-D atmospheric data products back into the past is desirable for a wide range of applications. Historical upper-air data are important in this endeavour, particularly in the maritime regions of the tropics and the southern hemisphere, where observations are extremely sparse. Here we present newly digitized and re-evaluated early ship-based upper-air data from two cruises: (1) kite and registering balloon profiles from onboard the ship SMS Planet on a cruise from Europe around South Africa and across the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in 1906/1907, and (2) ship-based radiosonde data from onboard the MS Schwabenland on a cruise from Europe across the Atlantic to Antarctica and back in 1938/1939. We describe the data and provide estimations of the errors. We compare the data with a recent reanalysis (the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, 20CR, Compo et al., 2011) that provides global 3-D data back to the 19th century based on an assimilation of surface pressure data only (plus monthly mean sea-surface temperatures). In cruise (1), the agreement is generally good, but large temperature differences appear during a period with a strong inversion. In cruise (2), after a subset of the data are corrected, close agreement between observations and 20CR is found for geopotential height (GPH) and temperature notwithstanding a likely cold bias of 20CR at the tropopause level. Results are considerably worse for relative humidity, which was reportedly inaccurately measured. Note that comparing 20CR, which has limited skill in the tropical regions, with measurements from ships in remote regions made under sometimes difficult conditions can be considered a worst case assessment. In view of that fact, the anomaly correlations for temperature of 0.3–0.6 in the lower troposphere in cruise (1) and of 0.5–0.7 for tropospheric temperature and GPH in cruise (2) are considered as promising results. Moreover, they are consistent with the error estimations. The results suggest room for further improvement of data products in remote regions.

Femtosecond Rotational Raman Coherence Spectroscopy of Cyclohexane in a Pulsed Supersonic Jet

We combine the technique of femtosecond degenerate four-wave mixing (fs-DFWM) with a high repetition-rate pulsed supersonic jet source to obtain the rotational coherence spectrum (RCS) of cold cyclohexane (C(6)H(12)) with high signal/noise ratio. In the jet expansion, the near-parallel flow pattern combined with rapid translational cooling effectively eliminate dephasing collisions, giving near-constant RCS signal intensities over time delays up to 5 ns. The vibrational cooling in the jet eliminates the thermally populated vibrations that complicate the RCS coherences of cyclohexane at room temperature [Bragger, G.; et al. J. Phys. Chem. A 2011, 115, 9567]. The rotational cooling reduces the high-J rotational-state population, yielding the most accurate ground-state rotational constant to date, B(0) = 4305.859(9) MHz. Based on this B(0), a reanalysis of previous room-temperature gas-cell RCS measurements of cydohexane gives improved vibration rotation interaction constants for the v(32), v(6), v(16), and v(24) vibrational states. Combining the experimental B(0)(C(6)H(12)) with CCSD(T) calculations yields a very accurate semiexperimental equilibrium structure of the chair isomer of cyclohexane

Late Holocene air temperature variability reconstructed from the sediments of Laguna Escondida, Patagonia, Chile (45 degrees 30 ' S)

Climate and environmental reconstructions from natural archives are important for the interpretation of current climatic change. Few quantitative high-resolution reconstructions exist for South America which is the only land mass extending from the tropics to the southern high latitudes at 56°S. We analyzed sediment cores from two adjacent lakes in Northern Chilean Patagonia, Lago Castor (45°36′S, 71°47′W) and Laguna Escondida (45°31′S, 71°49′W). Radiometric dating (210Pb, 137Cs, 14C-AMS) suggests that the cores reach back to c. 900 BC (Laguna Escondida) and c. 1900 BC (Lago Castor). Both lakes show similarities and reproducibility in sedimentation rate changes and tephra layer deposition. We found eight macroscopic tephras (0.2–5.5 cm thick) dated at 1950 BC, 1700 BC, at 300 BC, 50 BC, 90 AD, 160 AD, 400 AD and at 900 AD. These can be used as regional time-synchronous stratigraphic markers. The two thickest tephras represent known well-dated explosive eruptions of Hudson volcano around 1950 and 300 BC. Biogenic silica flux revealed in both lakes a climate signal and correlation with annual temperature reanalysis data (calibration 1900–2006 AD; Lago Castor r = 0.37; Laguna Escondida r = 0.42, seven years filtered data). We used a linear inverse regression plus scaling model for calibration and leave-one-out cross-validation (RMSEv = 0.56 °C) to reconstruct sub decadal-scale temperature variability for Laguna Escondida back to AD 400. The lower part of the core from Laguna Escondida prior to AD 400 and the core of Lago Castor are strongly influenced by primary and secondary tephras and, therefore, not used for the temperature reconstruction. The temperature reconstruction from Laguna Escondida shows cold conditions in the 5th century (relative to the 20th century mean), warmer temperatures from AD 600 to AD 1150 and colder temperatures from AD 1200 to AD 1450. From AD 1450 to AD 1700 our reconstruction shows a period with stronger variability and on average higher values than the 20th century mean. Until AD 1900 the temperature values decrease but stay slightly above the 20th century mean. Most of the centennial-scale features are reproduced in the few other natural climate archives in the region. The early onset of cool conditions from c. AD 1200 onward seems to be confirmed for this region.

Prediction of hip fracture risk by quantitative ultrasound in more than 7000 Swiss women > or =70 years of age: comparison of three technologically different bone ultrasound devices in the SEMOF study

To compare the prediction of hip fracture risk of several bone ultrasounds (QUS), 7062 Swiss women > or =70 years of age were measured with three QUSs (two of the heel, one of the phalanges). Heel QUSs were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS was not. INTRODUCTION: As the number of hip fracture is expected to increase during these next decades, it is important to develop strategies to detect subjects at risk. Quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS), an ionizing radiation-free method, which is transportable, could be interesting for this purpose. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Swiss Evaluation of the Methods of Measurement of Osteoporotic Fracture Risk (SEMOF) study is a multicenter cohort study, which compared three QUSs for the assessment of hip fracture risk in a sample of 7609 elderly ambulatory women > or =70 years of age. Two QUSs measured the heel (Achilles+; GE-Lunar and Sahara; Hologic), and one measured the heel (DBM Sonic 1200; IGEA). The Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the hazard of the first hip fracture, adjusted for age, BMI, and center, and the area under the ROC curves were calculated to compare the devices and their parameters. RESULTS: From the 7609 women who were included in the study, 7062 women 75.2 +/- 3.1 (SD) years of age were prospectively followed for 2.9 +/- 0.8 years. Eighty women reported a hip fracture. A decrease by 1 SD of the QUS variables corresponded to an increase of the hip fracture risk from 2.3 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.1) to 2.6 (95% CI, 1.9, 3.4) for the three variables of Achilles+ and from 2.2 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.0) to 2.4 (95% CI, 1.8, 3.2) for the three variables of Sahara. Risk gradients did not differ significantly among the variables of the two heel QUS devices. On the other hand, the phalanges QUS (DBM Sonic 1200) was not predictive of hip fracture risk, with an adjusted hazard risk of 1.2 (95% CI, 0.9, 1.5), even after reanalysis of the digitalized data and using different cut-off levels (1700 or 1570 m/s). CONCLUSIONS: In this elderly women population, heel QUS devices were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS device was not.

Simulating the temperature and precipitation signal in an Alpine ice core

Accumulation and delta O-18 data from Alpine ice cores provide information on past temperature and precipitation. However, their correlation with seasonal or annual mean temperature and precipitation at nearby sites is often low. This is partly due to the irregular sampling of the atmosphere by the ice core (i.e. ice cores almost only record precipitation events and not dry periods) and the possible incongruity between annual layers and calendar years. Using daily meteorological data from a nearby station and reanalyses, we replicate the ice core from the Grenzgletscher (Switzerland, 4200m a.s.l.) on a sample-by-sample basis by calculating precipitation-weighted temperature (PWT) over short intervals. Over the last 15 yr of the ice core record, accumulation and delta O-18 variations can be well reproduced on a sub-seasonal scale. This allows a wiggle-matching approach for defining quasi-annual layers, resulting in high correlations between measured quasi-annual delta O-18 and PWT. Further back in time, the agreement deteriorates. Nevertheless, we find significant correlations over the entire length of the record (1938-1993) of ice core delta O-18 with PWT, but not with annual mean temperature. This is due to the low correlations between PWT and annual mean temperature, a characteristic which in ERA-Interim reanalysis is also found for many other continental mid-to-high-latitude regions. The fact that meteorologically very different years can lead to similar combinations of PWT and accumulation poses limitations to the use of delta O-18 from Alpine ice cores for temperature reconstructions. Rather than for reconstructing annual mean temperature, delta O-18 from Alpine ice cores should be used to reconstruct PWT over quasi-annual periods. This variable is reproducible in reanalysis or climate model data and could thus be assimilated into conventional climate models.

An analysis of the Galveston Hurricane using the 20CR data set

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) is an atmospheric dataset consisting of 56 ensemble members, which covers the entire globe and reaches back to 1871. To assess the suitability of this dataset for studying past extremes, we analysed a prominent extreme event, namely the Galveston Hurricane, which made landfall in September 1900 in Texas, USA. The ensemble mean of 20CR shows a track of the pressure minimum with a small standard deviation among the 56 ensemble members in the area of the Gulf of Mexico. However, there are systematic differences between the assimilated “Best Track” from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and the ensemble mean track in 20CR. East of the Strait of Florida, the tracks derived from 20CR are located systematically northeast of the assimilated track while in the Gulf of Mexico, the 20CR tracks are systematically shifted to the southwest compared to the IBTrACS position. The hurricane can also be observed in the wind field, which shows a cyclonic rotation and a relatively calm zone in the centre of the hurricane. The 20CR data reproduce the pressure gradient and cyclonic wind field. Regarding the amplitude of the wind speeds, the ensemble mean values from 20CR are significantly lower than the wind speeds known from measurements.

The Storm Surge Event of the Netherlands in 1953

A disastrous storm surge hit the coast of the Netherlands on 31 January and 1 February 1953. We examine the meteorological situation during this event using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data set. We find a strong pressure gradient between Ireland and northern Germany accompanied by strong north-westerly winds over the North Sea. Storm driven sea level rise combined with spring tide contributed to this extreme event. The state of the atmosphere in 20CR during this extreme event is in good agreement with historical observational data

Synoptic Analysis of the New York March 1888 Blizzard

The meteorological circumstances that led to the Blizzard of March 1888 that hit New York are analysed in Version 2 of the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR). The potential of this data set for studying historical extreme events has not yet been fully explored. A detailed analysis of 20CR data alongside other data sources (including historical instrumental data and weather maps) for historical extremes such as the March 1888 blizzard may give insights into the limitations of 20CR. We find that 20CR reproduces the circulation pattern as well as the temperature development very well. Regarding the absolute values of variables such as snow fall or minimum and maximum surface pressure, there is anunderestimation of the observed extremes, which may be due to the low spatial resolution of 20CR and the fact that only the ensemble mean is considered. Despite this drawback, the dataset allows us to gain new information due to its complete spatial and temporal coverage.

The extreme flood event of Lago Maggiore in September 1993

In September 1993, the Valais and Ticino regions of Switzerland were affected by extreme flooding triggered by heavy precipitation. The meteorological situation leading to this event is studied in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data set. A strong cut-off low development is found to be the driving synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation pattern. The agreement with previous studies highlights the applicability of 20CR for extreme event analysis.