Testing market efficiency: Evidence from the NFL sports betting market

This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas the profitability of a number of these betting strategies is confirmed by out-of-sample testing, there is some inconsistency among the remaining out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that widely documented inefficiencies in this market tend to dissipate over time.

Development of an IgG4-Based Predictor of Endemic Pemphigus Foliaceus (Fogo Selvagem)

Fogo selvagem (FS) is mediated by pathogenic, predominantly IgG4, anti-desmoglein 1 (Dsg1) autoantibodies and is endemic in Limao Verde, Brazil. IgG and IgG subclass autoantibodies were tested in a sample of 214 FS patients and 261 healthy controls by Dsg1 ELISA. For model selection, the sample was randomly divided into training (50%), validation (25%), and test (25%) sets. Using the training and validation sets, IgG4 was chosen as the best predictor of FS, with index values above 6.43 classified as FS. Using the test set, IgG4 has sensitivity of 92% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 82-95%), specificity of 97% (95% CI: 89-100%), and area under the curve of 0.97 ( 95% CI: 0.94-1.00). The IgG4 positive predictive value (PPV) in Limao Verde (3% FS prevalence) was 49%. The sensitivity, specificity, and PPV of IgG anti-Dsg1 were 87, 91, and 23%, respectively. The IgG4-based classifier was validated by testing 11 FS patients before and after clinical disease and 60 Japanese pemphigus foliaceus patients. It classified 21 of 96 normal individuals from a Limao Verde cohort as having FS serology. On the basis of its PPV, half of the 21 individuals may currently have preclinical FS and could develop clinical disease in the future. Identifying individuals during preclinical FS will enhance our ability to identify the etiological agent(s) triggering FS.

Lymphocyte proliferation testing in chromium allergic contact dermatitis

Background. Lymphocyte proliferation testing (LPT) has some advantages over patch testing to diagnose allergic contact dermatitis. It is harmless, objective and can be used in clinical situations where patch testing is not recommended. Unfortunately, significant success has only been achieved with nickel. There are few studies on chromium LPT and they were performed with different methods, leading to inconsistent results. Methods. To determine the best parameters for chromium LPT, we tested 20 patients with allergic contact dermatitis to the metal and 20 controls, using various protocols. Results. The best sensitivity and specificity ratios were achieved with 6-day cultures stimulated with a range from 7.5 x 10(-4) to 5 x 10(-3) mol/L of nonfiltered chromium chloride solutions. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy values found within this range were 65%, 95% and 80%, respectively. Conclusion. Further investigation is necessary to achieve better sensitivity values.

Stuttering treatment control using P300 event-related potentials

Positron emission tomography studies during speech have indicated a failure to show the normal activation of auditory cortical areas in stuttering individuals. In the present study, P300 event-related potentials were used to investigate possible effects of behavioral treatment on the pattern of signal amplitude and latency between waves. In order to compare variations in P300 measurements, a control group paired by age and gender to the group of stutterers, was included in the study. Findings suggest that the group of stutterers presented a significant decrease in stuttering severity after the fluency treatment program. Regarding P300 measurements, stutterers and their controls presented results within normal limits in all testing situations and no significant statistical variations between pre and post treatment testing. When comparing individual results between the testing situations, stutterers presented a higher average decrease in wave latency for the right ear following treatment. The results are discussed in light of previous P300 event-related potentials and functional imaging studies with stuttering adults. Educational objectives: The reader will learn about and be able to describe the: (1) use of P300 event-related potentials in the study of stuttering; (2) differences between stuttering and non-stuttering adults; and (3) effects of behavioral fluency treatment on cerebral activity in stuttering speakers. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term follow up of abdominal rectosigmoidectomy with posterior end-to-side stapled anastomosis for Chagas megacolon

Aim Chagas` disease is an endemic parasitosis found in Latin America. The disease affects different organs, such as heart, oesophagus, colon and rectum. Megacolon is the most frequent long-term complication, caused by damage to the myoenteric and submucous plexus, ultimately leading to a functional barrier to the faeces. Patients with severe constipation are managed surgically. The study aimed to analyse the 10-year minimum functional outcome after rectosigmoidectomy with posterior end-to-side anastomosis (RPESA). Method A total of 21 of 46 patients were available for follow up. Patients underwent clinical, radiological and manometric evaluation, and the results were compared with preoperative parameters. Results Of the 21 patients evaluated, 81% (17) were female, with a mean age of 60.6 years. Good function was achieved in all patients, with significant improvement in defaecatory frequency (P < 0.0001), usage of enemas (P < 0.0001) and patient satisfaction. Barium enema also showed resolution of the colonic and rectal dilatation in 19 cases evaluated postoperatively. Conclusion Minimal 10-year follow up of RPESA showed excellent functional results, with no recurrence of constipation.

Entecavir Treatment for up to 5 Years in Patients with Hepatitis B e Antigen-Positive Chronic Hepatitis B

Sustained virologic suppression is a primary goal of therapy for chronic hepatitis B (CHB). In study entecavir (ETV)-022, 48 weeks of entecavir 0.5 mg was superior to lamivudine for virologic suppression for hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive CHB. A total of 183 entecavir-treated patients from ETV-022 subsequently enrolled in study ETV-901. We present the results after up to 5 years (240 weeks) of continuous entecavir therapy. The entecavir long-term cohort consists of patients who received >= 1 year of entecavir 0.5 mg in ETV-022 and then entered ETV-901 with a treatment gap <= 35 days. In ETV-901 the entecavir dose was 1.0 mg daily. For patients with samples available at Year 5, proportions with hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA <300 copies/mL, normal alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels, HBeAg loss, and HBeAg seroconversion were determined. In all, 146 patients met criteria for inclusion in the entecavir long-term cohort. At Year 5, 94% (88/94) had HBV DNA <300 copies/mL and 80% (78/98) had normal ALT levels. In addition to patients who achieved serologic responses during study ETV-022, 23% (33/141) achieved HBeAg seroconversion and 1.4% (2/145) lost hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) during study ETV-901. Through 5 years, entecavir resistance emerged in one patient. The safety profile of entecavir was consistent with previous reports. Conclusion: Extended therapy with entecavir through 5 years maintained or increased rates of HBV DNA suppression and ALT normalization. Additional patients also achieved HBeAg loss and seroconversion. Entecavir provides sustained viral suppression with minimal resistance during long-term treatment of HBeAg-positive CHB. (HEPATOLOGY 2010;51:422-430.)

Follow-up of Pregnant Women With Autoimmune Hepatitis The Disease Behavior Along With Maternal and Fetal Outcomes

Goals: To assess maternal and fetal outcomes and clinical management of pregnancy in patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH). Background: There is a paucity of information about maternal and fetal outcomes, and AIH activity during pregnancy and in the postpartum period. There is no consensus about the administration of azathioprine during pregnancy and breastfeeding. Study: Retrospective analysis of 54 pregnancies (3 still in progress) in 39 AIH patients. Results: The median age at conception was 24 years, and 68.4% of women had liver cirrhosis. Before conception and in early pregnancy, azathioprine and prednisone were administered in 48.1%, but treatment regimen vas usually changed further to 20 mg/d prednisone and 20.4%, were off treatment. There were 36 livebirths, and fetal loss rates were 29.4% (13 miscarriages, 1 stillbirth, and 1 ectopic pregnancy). Preterm birth rate was 11.8%. In 2 cases, there was acute fetal distress; and in 2 others congenital malformations (3.9%). The rate of serious maternal complication was 7.8%, with no deaths. There were no flares in 41.2% pregnancies, but aminotransferase elevations occurred in 54.9%, 31.4% of which were true AIH relapses, only registered in the postpartum period. Conclusions: Despite the high fetal miscarriage rate, pregnancy in AIH was safe. Patients needed careful monitoring, especially in the postpartum period because of relapses. There was no evidence of a cause and effect relationship among azathioprine administration and premature births and congenital abnormalities, but more studies are necessary. Higher doses of prednisone may be an alternative option for those who prefer azathioprine withdrawal during pregnancy.

A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term follow-up of children with extrahepatic portal vein obstruction: impact of an endoscopic sclerotherapy program on bleeding episodes, hepatic function, hypersplenism, and mortality

Background: Endoscopic sclerotherapy (ES) has been the standard treatment for children with idiopathic extrahepatic portal vein obstruction (EHPVO). Portosystemic shunts are indicated when variceal bleeding cannot be controlled by ES. Recently, mesenteric left portal vein bypass was indicated as a surgical intervention and preventative measure for hepatic dysfunction in children with long-term EHPVO. Nevertheless, there is a lack Of published data confirming the extent of hepatic dysfunction, hypersplenism, and physical development in children with long-term follow-up. Method: We retrospectively verified the long-term outcomes in 82 children with EHPVO treated with ES protocol, focusing on mortality, control of bleeding, hypersplenism, and consequent hepatic dysfunction. Results: Of the children, 56% were free from bleeding after the initiation of ES. The most frequent cause of rebleeding was gastric varices (30%). Four patients had recurrent bleeding from esophageal varices (4.6%). Four patients underwent surgery as a consequence of uncontrolled gastric varices. There were no deaths. Most patients showed good physical development. We observed a mild but statistically significant drop in factor V motion, as well as leukocyte and platelet count. Conclusion: Endoscopic sclerotherapy is an efficient treatment for children with EHPVO. The incidence of rebleeding is low, and there was no mortality. Children develop mild liver dysfunction and hypersplenism with long-term follow-up. Only a few patients manifest symptoms of hypersplenism, portal biliopathy, or liver dysfunction before adolescence. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal Follow-Up of Bipolar Disorder in Women With Premenstrual Exacerbation: Findings From STEP-BD

Objective: The impact of hormonal fluctuation during the menstrual cycle on the course of bipolar disorder is poorly understood. The authors determined the course of illness and time to relapse of bipolar disorder in prospectively followed women with premenstrual exacerbation. Method: Participants were 293 premenopause-age women with bipolar disorder who were followed prospectively for 1 year as part of the Systematic Treatment Enhancement Program for Bipolar Disorder. Frequency of mood episodes was compared between 191 women with premenstrual exacerbation (65.2%) and 102 women without. Among 129 women who were in recovered status at baseline, time to relapse was compared between 66 women with premenstrual exacerbation (51.2%) and 63 without. Results: During follow-up, the group with premenstrual exacerbation had more episodes (primarily depressive) than did the group without, but they were not more likely to meet criteria for rapid cycling during this period. In contrast, they were more likely to report rapid cycling retrospectively. Women with premenstrual exacerbation had a shorter time to relapse and were at greater risk for relapse, but this association was not significant after adjustment for retrospectively reported rapid cycling. Women with premenstrual exacerbation had more depressive and mood elevation symptoms overall. Conclusions: Women with bipolar disorder and premenstrual exacerbation have a worse course of illness, a shorter time to relapse, and greater symptom severity, but they are not more likely to meet criteria for rapid cycling. Premenstrual exacerbation may be a clinical marker predicting a more symptomatic and relapse-prone phenotype in reproductive-age women with bipolar disorder.

Etiological and Clinical Features of Childhood Psychotic Symptoms Results From a Birth Cohort

Context: It has been reported that childhood psychotic symptoms are common in the general population and may signal neurodevelopmental processes that lead to schizophrenia. However, it is not clear whether these symptoms are associated with the same extensive risk factors established for adult schizophrenia. Objective: To examine the construct validity of children`s self-reported psychotic symptoms by testing whether these symptoms share the risk factors and clinical features of adult schizophrenia. Design: Prospective, longitudinal cohort study of a nationally representative birth cohort in Great Britain. Participants: A total of 2232 twelve-year-old children followed up since age 5 years ( retention, 96%). Main Outcome Measure: Children`s self-reported hallucinations and delusions. Results: Children`s psychotic symptoms are familial and heritable and are associated with social risk factors (eg, urbanicity); cognitive impairments at age 5; home-rearing risk factors ( eg, maternal expressed emotion); behavioral, emotional, and educational problems at age 5; and comorbid conditions, including self-harm. Conclusions: The results provide a comprehensive picture of the construct validity of children`s self-reported psychotic symptoms. For researchers, the findings indicate that children who have psychotic symptoms can be recruited for neuroscience research to determine the pathogenesis of schizophrenia. For clinicians, the findings indicate that psychotic symptoms in childhood are often a marker of an impaired developmental process and should be actively assessed.

Application of Real-Time PCR Stool Assay for Helicobacter pylori Detection and Clarithromycin Susceptibility Testing in Brazilian Children

Background: Helicobacter pylori ClariRes assay is a novel commercially available real-time PCR assay allowing H. pylori detection and clarithromycin susceptibility testing in either gastric biopsy or stool specimens. Objective: The aim of this study was to validate the novel biprobe real-time assay in stool specimens from 217 dyspeptic children. Methods: DNA from gastric biopsies and stool specimens were obtained and submitted to the biprobe real time assay for H. pylori detection and clarithromycin susceptibility testing. Results: The sensitivity, specificity, and test accuracy were 69, 100 and 93.9% for the detection of H. pylori infection and 83.3, 100 and 95.6%, for detection of clarithromycin resistance. Conclusion: This assay proved to be appropriate for H. pylori clarithromycin susceptibility testing, particularly in children populations where a high prevalence of clarithromycin-resistant strains is suspected.

HER2 Testing in Breast Carcinoma Very Low Concordance Rate Between Reference and Local Laboratories in Brazil

Breast cancer accounts for approximately one quarter of all cancers in females. HER2 gene amplification or HER2 protein overexpression, detected in about 20% of breast carcinomas, predicts a more aggressive clinical course and determines eligibility for targeted therapy with trastuzumab. HER2 testing has become an essential part of the clinical evaluation of all breast carcinoma patients, and accurate HER2 results are critical in identifying patients who may be benefited from targeted therapy. This study investigated the concordance in the results of HER2 immunohistochemistry assays performed in 500 invasive breast carcinomas between a reference laboratory and 149 local laboratories from all geographic regions of Brazil. Our results showed an overall poor concordance (171 of 500 cases, 34.2%) regarding HER2 results between local and reference laboratories, which may be related to the low-volume load of HER2 assays, inexperience with HER2 scoring system, and/or technical issues related to immunohistochemistry in local laboratories. Standardization of HER2 testing with rigorous quality control measures by local laboratories is highly recommended to avoid erroneous treatment of breast cancer patients.

Integrating toxicity testing in the wastewater management of chemical storage terminals - A proposal based on a ten-year study

Wastewater control at storage terminals of liquid chemical products in bulk is very difficult because of the variety of products handled in the facilities generating effluents of variable composition. The main objective of this work was to verify if the Vibrio fischeri acute toxicity test could be routinely included in the wastewater management of those facilities along with physical and chemical analysis in order to evaluate and improve the quality of the generated effluents. The study was performed in two phases before and after the implementation of better operational practices/treatment technologies. Chemical oxygen demand (COD) and toxicity of treated effluents did not correlate showing that effluents with low COD contain toxic substances and non-biodegradable organic matter, which may be not degraded when discharged into the aquatic environment. Segregation of influents or pre-treatment based on toxicity results and biodegradability index were implemented in the facilities generating significant improvements in the quality of final effluents with reduction of Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and toxicity. The integration of physical and chemical analysis with the V.fischeri toxicity test turned out to be an excellent tool for wastewater management in chemical terminals allowing rapid decision making for pollution control and prevention measures. Reuse of rain water was also proposed and when implemented by the facilities resulted in economical and environmental benefits. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.