Link prediction using a probabilistic description logic

Due to the growing interest in social networks, link prediction has received significant attention. Link prediction is mostly based on graph-based features, with some recent approaches focusing on domain semantics. We propose algorithms for link prediction that use a probabilistic ontology to enhance the analysis of the domain and the unavoidable uncertainty in the task (the ontology is specified in the probabilistic description logic crALC). The scalability of the approach is investigated, through a combination of semantic assumptions and graph-based features. We evaluate empirically our proposal, and compare it with standard solutions in the literature.

Probabilistic Envelope Curves for Extreme Rainfall Events - Curve Inviluppo Probabilistiche per Precipitazioni Estreme

A regional envelope curve (REC) of flood flows summarises the current bound on our experience of extreme floods in a region. RECs are available for most regions of the world. Recent scientific papers introduced a probabilistic interpretation of these curves and formulated an empirical estimator of the recurrence interval T associated with a REC, which, in principle, enables us to use RECs for design purposes in ungauged basins. The main aim of this work is twofold. First, it extends the REC concept to extreme rainstorm events by introducing the Depth-Duration Envelope Curves (DDEC), which are defined as the regional upper bound on all the record rainfall depths at present for various rainfall duration. Second, it adapts the probabilistic interpretation proposed for RECs to DDECs and it assesses the suitability of these curves for estimating the T-year rainfall event associated with a given duration and large T values. Probabilistic DDECs are complementary to regional frequency analysis of rainstorms and their utilization in combination with a suitable rainfall-runoff model can provide useful indications on the magnitude of extreme floods for gauged and ungauged basins. The study focuses on two different national datasets, the peak over threshold (POT) series of rainfall depths with duration 30 min., 1, 3, 9 and 24 hrs. obtained for 700 Austrian raingauges and the Annual Maximum Series (AMS) of rainfall depths with duration spanning from 5 min. to 24 hrs. collected at 220 raingauges located in northern-central Italy. The estimation of the recurrence interval of DDEC requires the quantification of the equivalent number of independent data which, in turn, is a function of the cross-correlation among sequences. While the quantification and modelling of intersite dependence is a straightforward task for AMS series, it may be cumbersome for POT series. This paper proposes a possible approach to address this problem.

Probabilistic approaches in civil engineering: generation of random fields and structural identification with genetic algorithms

The inherent stochastic character of most of the physical quantities involved in engineering models has led to an always increasing interest for probabilistic analysis. Many approaches to stochastic analysis have been proposed. However, it is widely acknowledged that the only universal method available to solve accurately any kind of stochastic mechanics problem is Monte Carlo Simulation. One of the key parts in the implementation of this technique is the accurate and efficient generation of samples of the random processes and fields involved in the problem at hand. In the present thesis an original method for the simulation of homogeneous, multi-dimensional, multi-variate, non-Gaussian random fields is proposed. The algorithm has proved to be very accurate in matching both the target spectrum and the marginal probability. The computational efficiency and robustness are very good too, even when dealing with strongly non-Gaussian distributions. What is more, the resulting samples posses all the relevant, welldefined and desired properties of “translation fields”, including crossing rates and distributions of extremes. The topic of the second part of the thesis lies in the field of non-destructive parametric structural identification. Its objective is to evaluate the mechanical characteristics of constituent bars in existing truss structures, using static loads and strain measurements. In the cases of missing data and of damages that interest only a small portion of the bar, Genetic Algorithm have proved to be an effective tool to solve the problem.

Fourier-transform rheology on anionically synthesised polymer melts and solutions of various topology

Aim of this thesis was to further extend the applicability of the Fourier-transform (FT) rheology technique especially for non-linear mechanical characterisation of polymeric materials on the one hand and to investigated the influence of the degree of branching on the linear and non-linear relaxation behaviour of polymeric materials on the other hand. The latter was achieved by employing in particular FT-rheology and other rheological techniques to variously branched polymer melts and solutions. For these purposes, narrowly distributed linear and star-shaped polystyrene and polybutadiene homo-polymers with varying molecular weights were anionically synthesised using both high-vacuum and inert atmosphere techniques. Furthermore, differently entangled solutions of linear and star-shaped polystyrenes in di-sec-octyl phthalate (DOP) were prepared. The several linear polystyrene solutions were measured under large amplitude oscillatory shear (LAOS) conditions and the non-linear torque response was analysed in the Fourier space. Experimental results were compared with numerical predictions performed by Dr. B. Debbaut using a multi-mode differential viscoelastic fluid model obeying the Giesekus constitutive equation. Apart from the analysis of the relative intensities of the harmonics, a detailed examination of the phase information content was developed. Further on, FT-rheology allowed to distinguish polystyrene melts and solutions due to their different topologies where other rheological measurements failed. Significant differences occurred under LAOS conditions as particularly reflected in the phase difference of the third harmonic, Ħ3, which could be related to shear thinning and shear thickening behaviour.

Rheology and Fourier-transform rheology on water-based systems

The influence of shear fields on water-based systems was investigated within this thesis. The non-linear rheological behaviour of spherical and rod-like particles was examined with Fourier-Transform rheology under LAOS conditions. As a model system for spherical particles two different kinds of polystyrene dispersions, with a solid content higher than 0.3 each, were synthesised within this work. Due to the differences in polydispersity and Debye-length, differences were also found in the rheology. In the FT-rheology both kinds of dispersions showed a similar rise in the intensities of the magnitudes of the odd higher harmonics, which were predicted by a model. The in some cases additionally appearing second harmonics were not predicted. A novel method to analyse the time domain signal was developed, that splits the time domain signal up in four characteristic functions. Those characteristic functions correspond to rheological phenomena. In some cases the intensities of the Fourier components can interfere negatively. FD-virus particles were used as a rod-like model system, which already shows a highly non-linear behaviour at concentrations below 1. % wt. Predictions for the dependence of the higher harmonics from the strain amplitude described the non-linear behaviour well at large, but no so good at small strain amplitudes. Additionally the trends of the rheological behaviour could be described by a theory for rod-like particles. An existing rheo-optical set-up was enhanced by reducing the background birefringence by a factor of 20 and by increasing the time resolution by a factor of 24. Additionally a combination of FT-rheology and rheo-optics was achieved. The influence of a constant shear field on the crystallisation process of zinc oxide in the presence of a polymer was examined. The crystallites showed a reduction in length by a factor of 2. The directed addition of polymers in combination with a defined shear field can be an easy way for a defined change of the form of crystallites.

Study of electromagnetic reactions on light nuclei with the Lorentz Integral Transform method

In dieser Arbeit aus dem Bereich der Wenig-Nukleonen-Physik wird die neu entwickelte Methode der Lorentz Integral Transformation (LIT) auf die Untersuchung von Kernphotoabsorption und Elektronenstreuung an leichten Kernen angewendet. Die LIT-Methode ermoeglicht exakte Rechnungen durchzufuehren, ohne explizite Bestimmung der Endzustaende im Kontinuum. Das Problem wird auf die Loesung einer bindungzustandsaehnlichen Gleichung reduziert, bei der die Endzustandswechselwirkung vollstaendig beruecksichtigt wird. Die Loesung der LIT-Gleichung wird mit Hilfe einer Entwicklung nach hypersphaerischen harmonischen Funktionen durchgefuehrt, deren Konvergenz durch Anwendung einer effektiven Wechselwirkung im Rahmem des hypersphaerischen Formalismus (EIHH) beschleunigt wird. In dieser Arbeit wird die erste mikroskopische Berechnung des totalen Wirkungsquerschnittes fuer Photoabsorption unterhalb der Pionproduktionsschwelle an 6Li, 6He und 7Li vorgestellt. Die Rechnungen werden mit zentralen semirealistischen NN-Wechselwirkungen durchgefuehrt, die die Tensor Kraft teilweise simulieren, da die Bindungsenergien von Deuteron und von Drei-Teilchen-Kernen richtig reproduziert werden. Der Wirkungsquerschnitt fur Photoabsorption an 6Li zeigt nur eine Dipol-Riesenresonanz, waehrend 6He zwei unterschiedliche Piks aufweist, die dem Aufbruch vom Halo und vom Alpha-Core entsprechen. Der Vergleich mit experimentellen Daten zeigt, dass die Addition einer P-Wellen-Wechselwirkung die Uebereinstimmung wesentlich verbessert. Bei 7Li wird nur eine Dipol-Riesenresonanz gefunden, die gut mit den verfuegbaren experimentellen Daten uebereinstimmt. Bezueglich der Elektronenstreuung wird die Berechnung der longitudinalen und transversalen Antwortfunktionen von 4He im quasi-elastischen Bereich fuer mittlere Werte des Impulsuebertrages dargestellt. Fuer die Ladungs- und Stromoperatoren wird ein nichtrelativistisches Modell verwendet. Die Rechnungen sind mit semirealistischen Wechselwirkungen durchgefuert und ein eichinvarianter Strom wird durch die Einfuehrung eines Mesonaustauschstroms gewonnen. Die Wirkung des Zweiteilchenstroms auf die transversalen Antwortfunktionen wird untersucht. Vorlaeufige Ergebnisse werden gezeigt und mit den verfuegbaren experimentellen Daten verglichen.

Probabilistic tomography of atmospheric parameters from GNSS data

The objective of the work is the evaluation of the potential capabilities of navigation satellite signals to retrieve basic atmospheric parameters. A capillary study have been performed on the assumptions more or less explicitly contained in the common processing steps of navigation signals. A probabilistic procedure has been designed for measuring vertical discretised profiles of pressure, temperature and water vapour and their associated errors. Numerical experiments on a synthetic dataset have been performed with the main objective of quantifying the information that could be gained from such approach, using entropy and relative entropy as testing parameters. A simulator of phase delay and bending of a GNSS signal travelling across the atmosphere has been developed to this aim.

Studies of pure rotational spectra of isolated molecules and molecular adducts using pulsed jet Fourier transform microwave (PJ-FTM) spectroscopy

This thesis focuses on studying molecular structure and internal dynamics by using pulsed jet Fourier transform microwave (PJ-FTMW) spectroscopy combined with theoretical calculations. Several kinds of interesting chemical problems are investigated by analyzing the MW spectra of the corresponding molecular systems. First, the general aspects of rotational spectroscopy are summarized, and then the basic theory on molecular rotation and experimental method are described briefly. ab initio and density function theory (DFT) calculations that used in this thesis to assist the assignment of rotational spectrum are also included. From chapter 3 to chapter 8, several molecular systems concerning different kind of general chemical problems are presented. In chapter 3, the conformation and internal motions of dimethyl sulfate are reported. The internal rotations of the two methyl groups split each rotational transition into several components line, allowing for the determination of accurate values of the V3 barrier height to internal rotation and of the orientation of the methyl groups with respect to the principal axis system. In chapter 4 and 5, the results concerning two kinds of carboxylic acid bi-molecules, formed via two strong hydrogen bonds, are presented. This kind of adduct is interesting also because a double proton transfer can easily take place, connecting either two equivalent or two non-equivalent molecular conformations. Chapter 6 concerns a medium strong hydrogen bonded molecular complex of alcohol with ether. The dimer of ethanol-dimethylether was chosen as the model system for this purpose. Chapter 7 focuses on weak halogen…H hydrogen bond interaction. The nature of O-H…F and C-H…Cl interaction has been discussed through analyzing the rotational spectra of CH3CHClF/H2O. In chapter 8, two molecular complexes concerning the halogen bond interaction are presented.

Implicit computational complexity and probabilistic classes

The thesis applies the ICC tecniques to the probabilistic polinomial complexity classes in order to get an implicit characterization of them. The main contribution lays on the implicit characterization of PP (which stands for Probabilistic Polynomial Time) class, showing a syntactical characterisation of PP and a static complexity analyser able to recognise if an imperative program computes in Probabilistic Polynomial Time. The thesis is divided in two parts. The first part focuses on solving the problem by creating a prototype of functional language (a probabilistic variation of lambda calculus with bounded recursion) that is sound and complete respect to Probabilistic Prolynomial Time. The second part, instead, reverses the problem and develops a feasible way to verify if a program, written with a prototype of imperative programming language, is running in Probabilistic polynomial time or not. This thesis would characterise itself as one of the first step for Implicit Computational Complexity over probabilistic classes. There are still open hard problem to investigate and try to solve. There are a lot of theoretical aspects strongly connected with these topics and I expect that in the future there will be wide attention to ICC and probabilistic classes.

Earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard analysis: some insights on the testing phase and the modeling

This thesis is divided in three chapters. In the first chapter we analyse the results of the world forecasting experiment run by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We take the opportunity of this experiment to contribute to the definition of a more robust and reliable statistical procedure to evaluate earthquake forecasting models. We first present the models and the target earthquakes to be forecast. Then we explain the consistency and comparison tests that are used in CSEP experiments to evaluate the performance of the models. Introducing a methodology to create ensemble forecasting models, we show that models, when properly combined, are almost always better performing that any single model. In the second chapter we discuss in depth one of the basic features of PSHA: the declustering of the seismicity rates. We first introduce the Cornell-McGuire method for PSHA and we present the different motivations that stand behind the need of declustering seismic catalogs. Using a theorem of the modern probability (Le Cam's theorem) we show that the declustering is not necessary to obtain a Poissonian behaviour of the exceedances that is usually considered fundamental to transform exceedance rates in exceedance probabilities in the PSHA framework. We present a method to correct PSHA for declustering, building a more realistic PSHA. In the last chapter we explore the methods that are commonly used to take into account the epistemic uncertainty in PSHA. The most widely used method is the logic tree that stands at the basis of the most advanced seismic hazard maps. We illustrate the probabilistic structure of the logic tree, and then we show that this structure is not adequate to describe the epistemic uncertainty. We then propose a new probabilistic framework based on the ensemble modelling that properly accounts for epistemic uncertainties in PSHA.

Transform Tectonics and Non-Volcanic Oceanic Islands

Oceanic islands can be divided, according to their origin, in volcanic and tectonic. Volcanic islands are due to excess volcanism. Tectonic islands are mainly formed due to vertical tectonic motions of blocks of oceanic lithosphere along transverse ridges flanking transform faults at slow and ultraslow mid-ocean ridges. Vertical tectonic motions are due to a reorganization of the geometry of the transform plate boundary, with the transition from a transcurrent tectonics to a transtensive and/or transpressive tectonics, with the formation of the transverse ridges. Tectonic islands can be located also at the ridge–transform intersection: in this case the uplift is due by the movement of the long-lived detachment faults located along the flanks of the mid-ocean ridges. The "Vema" paleoisland (equatorial Atlantic) is at the summit of the southern transverse ridge of the Vema transform. It is now 450 m bsl and it is capped by a carbonate platform 500 m-thick, dated by 87Sr/86Sr at 10 Ma. Three tectonic paleoislands are on the summit of the transverse ridge flanking the Romanche megatrasform (equatorial Atlantic). They are now about 1,000 m bsl and they are formed by 300 m-thick carbonate platforms dated by 87Sr/86Sr, between 11 and 6 Ma. The tectonic paleoisland “Atlantis Bank" is located in the South-Western Indian Ridge, along the Atlantis II transform, and it is today 700 m bsl. The only modern example of oceanic tectonics island is the St. Paul Rocks (equatorial Atlantic), located along the St. Paul transform. This archipelago is the top of a peridotitic massif that it is now a left overstep undergoing transpression. Oceanic volcanic islands are characterized by rapid growth and subsequent thermal subsidence and drowning; in contrast, oceanic tectonic islands may have one or more stages of emersion related to vertical tectonic events along the large oceanic fracture zones.

Probabilistic Recursion Theory and Implicit Computational Complexity

In this thesis we provide a characterization of probabilistic computation in itself, from a recursion-theoretical perspective, without reducing it to deterministic computation. More specifically, we show that probabilistic computable functions, i.e., those functions which are computed by Probabilistic Turing Machines (PTM), can be characterized by a natural generalization of Kleene's partial recursive functions which includes, among initial functions, one that returns identity or successor with probability 1/2. We then prove the equi-expressivity of the obtained algebra and the class of functions computed by PTMs. In the the second part of the thesis we investigate the relations existing between our recursion-theoretical framework and sub-recursive classes, in the spirit of Implicit Computational Complexity. More precisely, endowing predicative recurrence with a random base function is proved to lead to a characterization of polynomial-time computable probabilistic functions.

Hilbert transform

The Hilbert transform is an important tool in both pure and applied mathematics. It is largely used in the field of signal processing. Lately has been used in mathematical finance as the fast Hilbert transform method is an efficient and accurate algorithm for pricing discretely monitored barrier and Bermudan style options. The purpose of this report is to show the basic properties of the Hilbert transform and to check the domain of definition of this operator.

A probabilistic approach to classify the levee reliability

This work aims to evaluate the reliability of these levee systems, calculating the probability of “failure” of determined levee stretches under different loads, using probabilistic methods that take into account the fragility curves obtained through the Monte Carlo Method. For this study overtopping and piping are considered as failure mechanisms (since these are the most frequent) and the major levee system of the Po River with a primary focus on the section between Piacenza and Cremona, in the lower-middle area of the Padana Plain, is analysed. The novelty of this approach is to check the reliability of individual embankment stretches, not just a single section, while taking into account the variability of the levee system geometry from one stretch to another. This work takes also into consideration, for each levee stretch analysed, a probability distribution of the load variables involved in the definition of the fragility curves, where it is influenced by the differences in the topography and morphology of the riverbed along the sectional depth analysed as it pertains to the levee system in its entirety. A type of classification is proposed, for both failure mechanisms, to give an indication of the reliability of the levee system based of the information obtained by the fragility curve analysis. To accomplish this work, an hydraulic model has been developed where a 500-year flood is modelled to determinate the residual hazard value of failure for each stretch of levee near the corresponding water depth, then comparing the results with the obtained classifications. This work has the additional the aim of acting as an interface between the world of Applied Geology and Environmental Hydraulic Engineering where a strong collaboration is needed between the two professions to resolve and improve the estimation of hydraulic risk.

The arcuate fasciculus: an along-tract analysis with white matter probabilistic tractography

Il cervello umano è composto da una rete complessa, formata da fasci di assoni, che connettono le diverse aree cerebrali. Il fascio arcuato collega l’area imputata alla com- prensione del linguaggio con quella dedicata alla sua produzione. Il fascio arcuato è presente in entrambi gli emisferi cerebrali, anche se spesso è utilizzato prevalente- mente il sinistro. In questa tesi sono state valutate, in un campione di soggetti sani, le differenze tra fascio arcuato destro e sinistro, utilizzando la trattografia, metodica avanzata e non invasiva che permette la ricostruzione della traiettoria delle fibre con immagini RM (Risonanza Magnetica) pesate in diffusione. A questo scopo ho utilizzato un algoritmo probabilistico, che permette la stima di probabilità di connessione della fibra in oggetto con le diverse aree cerebrali, anche nelle sedi di incrocio con fibre di fasci diversi. Grazie all’implementazione di questo metodo, è stato possibile ottenere una ricostruzione accurata del fascio arcuato, an- che nell’emisfero destro dove è spesso critica, tanto da non essere possibile con altri algoritmi trattografici. Parametrizzando poi la geometria del tratto ho diviso il fascio arcuato in venti seg- menti e ho confrontato i parametri delle misure di diffusione, valutate nell’emisfero destro e sinistro. Da queste analisi emerge un’ampia variabilità nella geometria dell’arcuato, sia tra diversi soggetti che diversi emisferi. Nell’emisfero destro l’arcuato incrocia maggiormente fibre appartenenti ad altri fasci. Nell’emisfero sinistro le fibre dell’arcuato sono più compatte e si misura anche una maggiore connettività con altre aree del cervello coinvolte nelle funzioni linguistiche. Nella seconda fase dello studio ho applicato la stessa metodica in due pazienti con lesioni cerebrali, con l’obiettivo di testare il danno del fascio arcuato ipsilaterale alla lesione e stimare se nell’emisfero controlaterale si innescassero meccanismi di plastic- ità strutturale. Questa metodica può essere implementata, in un gruppo di pazienti omogenei, per identificare marcatori RM diagnostici nella fase di pianificazione pre- chirurgica e marcatori RM prognostici di recupero funzionale del linguaggio.