Tephrochronology of marine sediments around the Island of Montserrat, Lesser Antilles volcanic arc

The recent history of the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, Lesser Antilles volcanic arc, is reconstructed using data obtained from recently drilled submarine cores.Tephra layers in these cores preserve a record of the volcanic history of Montserrat back to ~250 ka on the basis of micropaleontology and stable isotope stratigraphy. Stratigraphic relationships identified in the cores collected in 2002 and 2005 document the fate of both pyroclastic flows entering the ocean to the east of Montserrat and carbonate-rich turbidites sourced from the carbonate platformssurrounding the islands of the Lesser Antilles. Using oxygen isotope stratigraphy, micropalaeontological analysis and Carbon-14 dating, it can be shown that three significant volcanic events, including the on-going eruption, have occurred over the last 12 ka. Preceding this was a time of volcanic quiescence, with three carbonate-rich turbidite events being documented in many of the cores. Our data suggest that these events occurred during Marine Isotope Stage 2, following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and onset of post-glacial sea level rise.

Developing a creative cluster in a post-industrial city : the Creative Industries Development Service (CIDS) and Manchester

This article takes the establishment and demise of Manchester’s Creative Industries Development Service (CIDS) as an exemplary case study for the ways in which creative industry policy has intersected with urban economic policy over the last decade. The authors argue that the creative industries required specific kinds of economic development agencies that would be able to act as “intermediaries” between the distinct languages of policymakers and “creatives.” They discuss the tensions inherent in such an approach and how CIDS attempted to manage them and suggest that the main reason for the demise of the CIDS was the domination of the “economic” over the “cultural” logic, both of which are present within the creative industries policy discourse.

The effect of implementing a modified early warning scoring (MEWS) system on the adequacy of vital sign documentation

Introduction and objectives Early recognition of deteriorating patients results in better patient outcomes. Modified early warning scores (MEWS) attempt to identify deteriorating patients early so timely interventions can occur thus reducing serious adverse events. We compared frequencies of vital sign recording 24 h post-ICU discharge and 24 h preceding unplanned ICU admission before and after a new observation chart using MEWS and an associated educational programme was implemented into an Australian Tertiary referral hospital in Brisbane. Design Prospective before-and-after intervention study, using a convenience sample of ICU patients who have been discharged to the hospital wards, and in patients with an unplanned ICU admission, during November 2009 (before implementation; n = 69) and February 2010 (after implementation; n = 70). Main outcome measures Any change in a full set or individual vital sign frequency before-and-after the new MEWS observation chart and associated education programme was implemented. A full set of vital signs included Blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR), temperature (T°), oxygen saturation (SaO2) respiratory rate (RR) and urine output (UO). Results After the MEWS observation chart implementation, we identified a statistically significant increase (210%) in overall frequency of full vital sign set documentation during the first 24 h post-ICU discharge (95% CI 148, 288%, p value <0.001). Frequency of all individual vital sign recordings increased after the MEWS observation chart was implemented. In particular, T° recordings increased by 26% (95% CI 8, 46%, p value = 0.003). An increased frequency of full vital sign set recordings for unplanned ICU admissions were found (44%, 95% CI 2, 102%, p value = 0.035). The only statistically significant improvement in individual vital sign recordings was urine output, demonstrating a 27% increase (95% CI 3, 57%, p value = 0.029). Conclusions The implementation of a new MEWS observation chart plus a supporting educational programme was associated with statistically significant increases in frequency of combined and individual vital sign set recordings during the first 24 h post-ICU discharge. There were no significant changes to frequency of individual vital sign recordings in unplanned admissions to ICU after the MEWS observation chart was implemented, except for urine output. Overall increases in the frequency of full vital sign sets were seen.

The effect of post-exercise hydrotherapy on subsequent exercise performance and heart rate variability

We investigated the effect of hydrotherapy on time-trial performance and cardiac parasympathetic reactivation during recovery from intense training. On three occasions, 18 well-trained cyclists completed 60 min high-intensity cycling, followed 20 min later by one of three 10-min recovery interventions: passive rest (PAS), cold water immersion (CWI), or contrast water immersion (CWT). The cyclists then rested quietly for 160 min with R-R intervals and perceptions of recovery recorded every 30 min. Cardiac parasympathetic activity was evaluated using the natural logarithm of the square root of mean squared differences of successive R-R intervals (ln rMSSD). Finally, the cyclists completed a work-based cycling time trial. Effects were examined using magnitude-based inferences. Differences in time-trial performance between the three trials were trivial. Compared with PAS, general fatigue was very likely lower for CWI (difference [90% confidence limits; -12% (-18; -5)]) and CWT [-11% (-19; -2)]. Leg soreness was almost certainly lower following CWI [-22% (-30; -14)] and CWT [-27% (-37; -15)]. The change in mean ln rMSSD following the recovery interventions (ln rMSSD(Post-interv)) was almost certainly higher following CWI [16.0% (10.4; 23.2)] and very likely higher following CWT [12.5% (5.5; 20.0)] compared with PAS, and possibly higher following CWI [3.7% (-0.9; 8.4)] compared with CWT. The correlations between performance, ln rMSSD(Post-interv) and perceptions of recovery were unclear. A moderate correlation was observed between ln rMSSD(Post-interv) and leg soreness [r = -0.50 (-0.66; -0.29)]. Although the effects of CWI and CWT on performance were trivial, the beneficial effects on perceptions of recovery support the use of these recovery strategies.

Detection of tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) and plasminogen activator inhibitor 2(PAI-2) in gingival crevicular fluid from healthy, gingivitis and periodontitis patients

Background: The regulation of plasminogen activation is a key element in controlling proteolytic events in the extracellular matrix. Our previous studies had demonstrated that in inflamed gingival tissues, tissue-type plasminogen activator (t-PA) is significantly increased in the extracellular matrix of the connective tissue and that interleukin 1β (IL-1β) can up regulate the level of t-PA and plasminogen activator inhibitor-2 (PAI-2) synthesis by human gingival fibroblasts. Method: In the present study, the levels of t-PA and PAI-2 in gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) were measured from healthy, gingivitis and periodontitis sites and compared before and after periodontal treatment. Crevicular fluid from106 periodontal sites in 33 patients were collected. 24 sites from 11 periodontitis patients received periodontal treatment after the first sample collection and post-treatment samples were collected 14 days after treatment. All samples were analyzed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for t-PA and PAI-2. Results: The results showed that significantly high levels of t-PA and PAI-2 in GCF were found in the gingivitis and periodontitis sites. Periodontal treatment led to significant decreases of PAI-2, but not t-PA, after 14 days. A significant positive linear correlation was found between t-PA and PAI-2 in GCF (r=0.80, p<0.01). In the healthy group, different sites from within the same subject showed little variation of t-PA and PAI-2 in GCF. However, the gingivitis and periodontitis sites showed large variation. These results suggest a good correlation between t-PA and PAI-2 with the severity of periodontal conditions. Conclusion: This study indicates that t-PA and PAI-2 may play a significant rôle in the periodontal tissue destruction and tissue remodeling and that t-PA and PAI-2 in GCF may be used as clinical markers to evaluate the periodontal diseases and assess treatment.

Tax morale, Eastern Europe and European enlargement

This study tries to remedy the current lack of tax compliance research analyzing tax morale in 10 Eastern European countries that joined the European Union in 2004 or 2007. By exploring tax morale differences between 1999 and 2008 we show that tax morale has decreased in 7 out of 10 Eastern European countries. This lack of sustainability may support the incentive based conditionality hypothesis that European Union has only a limited ability to influence tax morale over time. We observe that events and processes at the country level are crucial to understanding tax morale. Factors such as perceived government quality, trust in the justice system and the government are positively correlated with tax morale in 2008.

Contraceptive changes after reproductive events among Australian women born in 1973 to 1978: A longitudinal study from 1996 to 2009

Background Women change contraception as they try to conceive, space births, and limit family size. This longitudinal analysis examines contraception changes after reproductive events such as birth, miscarriage or termination among Australian women born from 1973 to 1978 to identify potential opportunities to increase the effectiveness of contraceptive information and service provision. Methods Between 1996 and 2009, 5,631 Australian women randomly sampled from the Australian universal health insurance (Medicare) database completed five self-report postal surveys. Three longitudinal logistic regression models were used to assess the associations between reproductive events (birth only, birth and miscarriage, miscarriage only, termination only, other multiple events, and no new event) and subsequent changes in contraceptive use (start using, stop using, switch method) compared with women who continued to use the same method. Results After women experienced only a birth, or a birth and a miscarriage, they were more likely to start using contraception. Women who experienced miscarriages were more likely to stop using contraception. Women who experienced terminations were more likely to switch methods. There was a significant interaction between reproductive events and time indicating more changes in contraceptive use as women reach their mid-30s. Conclusion Contraceptive use increases after the birth of a child, but decreases after miscarriage indicating the intention for family formation and spacing between children. Switching contraceptive methods after termination suggests these pregnancies were unintended and possibly due to contraceptive failure. Women’s contact with health professionals around the time of reproductive events provides an opportunity to provide contraceptive services.

Living through extreme weather events and natural disasters: How resilient are our high-rise high-density typologies?

The inner city Brisbane suburbs of the West End peninsula are poised for redevelopment. Located within walking distance to CBD workplaces, home to Queensland’s highest value cultural precinct, and high quality riverside parklands, there is currently a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to redevelop parts of the suburb to create a truly urban neighbourhood. According to a local community association, local residents agree and embrace the concept of high-density living, but are opposed to the high-rise urban form (12 storeys) advocated by the City’s planning authority (BCC, 2011) and would prefer to see medium-rise (5-8 storeys) medium-density built form. Brisbane experienced a major flood event which inundated the peninsula suburbs of West End in summer January 2011. The vulnerability of taller buildings to the vagaries of climate and more extreme weather events and their reliance on main electricity was exposed when power outages immediately before, during and after the flood disaster seriously limited occupants’ access and egress when elevators were disabled. Not all buildings were flooded but dwellings quickly became unliveable due to disabled air-conditioning. Some tall buildings remained uninhabitable for several weeks after the event. This paper describes an innovative design research method applied to the complex problem of resilient, sustainable neighbourhood form in subtropical cities, in which a thorough comparative analysis of a range of multiple-dwelling types has revealed the impact that government policy regarding design of the physical environment has on a community’s resilience. The outcomes advocate the role of climate-responsive design in averting the rising human capital and financial costs of natural disasters and climate change.

Modelling web-server Flash Events

A Flash Event (FE) represents a period of time when a web-server experiences a dramatic increase in incoming traffic, either following a newsworthy event that has prompted users to locate and access it, or as a result of redirection from other popular web or social media sites. This usually leads to network congestion and Quality-of-Service (QoS) degradation. These events can be mistaken for Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks aimed at disrupting the server. Accurate detection of FEs and their distinction from DDoS attacks is important, since different actions need to be undertaken by network administrators in these two cases. However, lack of public domain FE datasets hinders research in this area. In this paper we present a detailed study of flash events and classify them into three broad categories. In addition, the paper describes FEs in terms of three key components: the volume of incoming traffic, the related source IP-addresses, and the resources being accessed. We present such a FE model with minimal parameters and use publicly available datasets to analyse and validate our proposed model. The model can be used to generate different types of FE traffic, closely approximating real-world scenarios, in order to facilitate research into distinguishing FEs from DDoS attacks.

Post occupancy evaluations relating to discomfort glare : a study of green buildings in Brisbane

Glare indices have yet to be extensively tested in daylit open plan offices, as such there is no effective method to predict discomfort glare within these spaces. This study into discomfort glare in open plan green buildings targeted full-time employees, working under their everyday lighting conditions. Three green buildings in Brisbane were used for data collection, two were Green Star accredited and the other contained innovative daylighting strategies. Data were collected on full-time employees, mostly aged between 30 and 50 years, who broadly reflect the demographics of the wider working population in Australia. It was discovered 36 of the 64 respondents experienced discomfort from both electric and daylight sources at their workspace. The study used a specially tailored post-occupancy evaluation (POE) survey to help assess discomfort glare. Luminance maps extracted from High Dynamic Range (HDR) images were used to capture the luminous environment of the occupants. These were analysed using participant data and the program Evalglare. The physical results indicated no correlation with other developed glare metrics for daylight within these open plan green buildings, including the recently developed Daylight Glare Probability (DGP) Index. The strong influence of vertical illuminance, Ev in the DGP precludes the mostly contrast-based glare from windows observed in this investigation from forming a significant part of this index. Furthermore, critical assessment of the survey techniques used are considered. These will provide insight for further research into discomfort glare in the endeavour to fully develop a suitable glare metric.

Ensemble-based DDoS detection and mitigation model

This work-in-progress paper presents an ensemble-based model for detecting and mitigating Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks, and its partial implementation. The model utilises network traffic analysis and MIB (Management Information Base) server load analysis features for detecting a wide range of network and application layer DDoS attacks and distinguishing them from Flash Events. The proposed model will be evaluated against realistic synthetic network traffic generated using a software-based traffic generator that we have developed as part of this research. In this paper, we summarise our previous work, highlight the current work being undertaken along with preliminary results obtained and outline the future directions of our work.

Risk factors to predict the incidence of surgical adverse events following open or laparoscopic surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer: results from a randomised controlled trial

Aims: To identify risk factors for major Adverse Events (AEs) and to develop a nomogram to predict the probability of such AEs in individual patients who have surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer. Methods: We used data from 753 patients who were randomized to either total laparoscopic hysterectomy or total abdominal hysterectomy in the LACE trial. Serious adverse events that prolonged hospital stay or postoperative adverse events (using common terminology criteria 3+, CTCAE V3) were considered major AEs. We analyzed pre-surgical characteristics that were associated with the risk of developing major AEs by multivariate logistic regression. We identified a parsimonious model by backward stepwise logistic regression. The six most significant or clinically important variables were included in the nomogram to predict the risk of major AEs within 6 weeks of surgery and the nomogram was internally validated. Results: Overall, 132 (17.5%) patients had at least one major AE. An open surgical approach (laparotomy), higher Charlson’s medical co-morbidities score, moderately differentiated tumours on curettings, higher baseline ECOG score, higher body mass index and low haemoglobin levels were associated with AE and were used in the nomogram. The bootstrap corrected concordance index of the nomogram was 0.63 and it showed good calibration. Conclusions: Six pre-surgical factors independently predicted the risk of major AEs. This research might form the basis to develop risk reduction strategies to minimize the risk of AEs among patients undergoing surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer.

An integrated approach to enhance sustainability in industrialised building systems

Building prefabrication is known as Industrialised Building Systems (IBS) in Malaysia. This construction method possesses unique characteristics that are central to sustainable construction. For example, offsite construction enables efficient management of construction wastage by identifying major causes of waste arising during both the design and construction stages. These causes may then be eliminated by the improvement process in IBS component's manufacturing. However, current decisions on using IBS are typically financial driven and hinder the wider ranged adoption. In addition, current IBS misconceptions and the failure of rating schemes in evaluating the sustainability of IBS affect its implementation. A new approach is required to provide better understanding on the sustainability potential of IBS among stakeholders. Such approach should also help project the outcomes of each levels of decision-making to respond to social, economy and environmental challenges. This paper presents interim findings of research aimed at developing a framework for sustainable IBS development and suggests a more holistic approach to achieve sustainability. A framework of embedding sustainability factors is considered in three main phases of IBS construction; 1) Pre-construction, 2) Construction and 3) Post-construction phase. SWOT analysis was used to evaluate the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats involved in the IBS implementations. The action plans are formulated from the analysis of sustainable objectives. This approach will show where and how sustainability should be integrated to improve IBS construction. A mix of quantitative and qualitative methodology was used in this research to explore the potential of IBS in integrating sustainability. The tools used in the study are questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. Outcomes from these tools lead to the identification of viable approaches involving 18 critical factors to improve sustainability in IBS constructions. Finally, guidelines for decision-making are being developed to provide a useful source of information and support to mutual benefit of the stakeholders in integrating sustainability issues and concepts into IBS applications.

The post-illumination pupil response of melanopsin expressing intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells in diabetes

Purpose: This study investigates the clinical utility of the melanopsin expressing intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cell (ipRGC) controlled post-illumination pupil response (PIPR) as a novel technique for documenting inner retinal function in patients with Type II diabetes without diabetic retinopathy. Methods: The post-illumination pupil response (PIPR) was measured in seven patients with Type II diabetes, normal retinal nerve fiber thickness and no diabetic retinopathy. A 488 nm and 610 nm, 7.15º diameter stimulus was presented in Maxwellian view to the right eye and the left consensual pupil light reflex was recorded. Results: The group data for the blue PIPR (488 nm) identified a trend of reduced ipRGC function in patients with diabetes with no retinopathy. The transient pupil constriction was lower on average in the diabetic group. The relationship between duration of diabetes and the blue PIPR amplitude was linear, suggesting that ipRGC function decreases with increasing diabetes duration. Conclusion: This is the first report to show that the ipRGC controlled post-illumination pupil response may have clinical applications as a non-invasive technique for determining progression of inner neuroretinal changes in patients with diabetes before they are ophthalmoscopically or anatomically evident. The lower transient pupil constriction amplitude indicates that outer retinal photoreceptor inputs to the pupil light reflex may also be affected in diabetes.

Improved surgical safety after laparoscopic compared to open surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer : results from a randomised controlled trial

AIM: To compare Total Laparoscopic Hysterectomy (TLH) and Total Abdominal Hysterectomy (TAH) with regard to surgical safety. METHODS: Between October 2005 and June 2010, 760 patients with apparent early stage endometrial cancer were enroled in a multicentre, randomised clinical trial (LACE) comparing outcomes following TLH or TAH. The main study end points for this analysis were surgical adverse events (AE), hospital length of stay, conversion from laparoscopy to laparotomy, including 753 patients who completed at least 6 weeks of follow-up. Postoperative AEs were graded according to Common Toxicity Criteria (V3), and those immediately life-threatening, requiring inpatient hospitalisation or prolonged hospitalisation, or resulting in persistent or significant disability/incapacity were regarded as serious AEs. RESULTS: The incidence of intra-operative AEs was comparable in either group. The incidence of post-operative AE CTC grade 3+ (18.6% in TAH, 12.9% in TLH, p 0.03) and serious AE (14.3% in TAH, 8.2% in TLH, p 0.007) was significantly higher in the TAH group compared to the TLH group. Mean operating time was 132 and 107 min, and median length of hospital stay was 2 and 5 days in the TLH and TAH group, respectively (p<0.0001). The decline of haemoglobin from baseline to day 1 postoperatively was 2g/L less in the TLH group (p 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to TAH, TLH is associated with a significantly decreased risk of major surgical AEs. A laparoscopic surgical approach to early stage endometrial cancer is safe.