Multilevel Modelling with Spatial Effects

In multilevel modelling, interest in modeling the nested structure of hierarchical data has been accompanied by increasing attention to different forms of spatial interactions across different levels of the hierarchy. Neglecting such interactions is likely to create problems of inference, which typically assumes independence. In this paper we review approaches to multilevel modelling with spatial effects, and attempt to connect the two literatures, discussing the advantages and limitations of various approaches.

The effects of agglomeration on wages: evidence from the micro-level

This paper estimates individual wage equations in order to test two rival non-nested theories of economic agglomeration, namely New Economic Geography (NEG), as represented by the NEG wage equation and urban economic (UE) theory , in which wages relate to employment density. The paper makes an original contribution by evidently being the first empirical paper to examine the issue of agglomeration processes associated with contemporary theory working with micro-level data, highlighting the role of gender and other individual-level characteristics. For male respondents, there is no significant evidence that wage levels are an outcome of the mechanisms suggested by NEG or UE theory, but this is not the case for female respondents. We speculate on the reasons for the gender difference.

Which subgroup of patients with rheumatoid arthritis benefits from switching to rituximab versus alternative anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) agents after previous failure of an anti-TNF agent?

BACKGROUND: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with an inadequate response to TNF antagonists (aTNFs) may switch to an alternative aTNF or start treatment from a different class of drugs, such as rituximab (RTX). It remains unclear in which clinical settings these therapeutic strategies offer most benefit. OBJECTIVE: To analyse the effectiveness of RTX versus alternative aTNFs on RA disease activity in different subgroups of patients. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of patients with RA who discontinued at least one aTNF and subsequently received either RTX or an alternative aTNF, nested within the Swiss RA registry (SCQM-RA) was carried out. The primary outcome, longitudinal improvement in 28-joint count Disease Activity Score (DAS28), was analysed using multivariate regression models for longitudinal data and adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Of the 318 patients with RA included; 155 received RTX and 163 received an alternative aTNF. The relative benefit of RTX varied with the type of prior aTNF failure: when the motive for switching was ineffectiveness to previous aTNFs, the longitudinal improvement in DAS28 was significantly better with RTX than with an alternative aTNF (p = 0.03; at 6 months, -1.34 (95% CI -1.54 to -1.15) vs -0.93 (95% CI -1.28 to -0.59), respectively). When the motive for switching was other causes, the longitudinal improvement in DAS28 was similar for RTX and alternative aTNFs (p = 0.40). These results were not significantly modified by the number of previous aTNF failures, the type of aTNF switches, or the presence of co-treatment with a disease-modifying antirheumatic drug. CONCLUSION: This observational study suggests that in patients with RA who have stopped a previous aTNF treatment because of ineffectiveness changing to RTX is more effective than switching to an alternative aTNF.

Beyond Intermediates: The Role of Consumption and Commuting in the Construction of Local Input-Output Tables

It is a well-established fact in the literature on simulating Input-Output tables that mechanical methods for estimating intermediate trade lead to biased results where cross-hauling is underestimated and Type-I multipliers are overstated. Repeated findings to this effect have led to a primary emphasis on advocating the accurate estimation of intermediate trade flows. This paper reviews previous research and argues for a qualification of the consensus view: When simulating IO tables, construction approaches need to consider spill-over effects driven by wage and consumption flows. In particular, for the case of metropolitan economies, wage and consumption flows are important if accurate Type-II multipliers are to be obtained. This is demonstrated by constructing an interregional Input-Output table, which captures interdependencies between a city and its commuter belt, nested within the wider regional economy. In addition to identifying interdependencies caused by interregional intermediate purchases, data on subregional household incomes and commuter flows are used to identify interdependencies from wage payments and household consumption. The construction of the table is varied around a range of assumptions on intermediate trade and household consumption to capture the sensitivity of multipliers.

Household-based malaria control in a highly endemic area of Africa (Tanzania): determinants of transmission and disease and indicators for monitoring - Kilombero Malaria Project

The Kilombero Malaria Project (KMP) attemps to define opperationally useful indicators of levels of transmission and disease and health system relevant monitoring indicators to evaluate the impact of disease control at the community or health facility level. The KMP is longitudinal community based study (N = 1024) in rural Southern Tanzania, investigating risk factors for malarial morbidity and developing household based malaria control strategies. Biweekly morbidity and bimonthly serological, parasitological and drug consumption surveys are carried out in all study households. Mosquito densities are measured biweekly in 50 sentinel houses by timed light traps. Determinants of transmission and indicators of exposure were not strongly aggregated within households. Subjective morbidity (recalled fever), objective morbidity (elevated body temperature and high parasitaemia) and chloroquine consumption were strongly aggregated within a few households. Nested analysis of anti-NANP40 antibody suggest that only approximately 30% of the titer variance can explained by household clustering and that the largest proportion of antibody titer variability must be explained by non-measured behavioral determinants relating to an individual's level of exposure within a household. Indicators for evaluation and monitoring and outcome measures are described within the context of health service management to describe control measure output in terms of community effectiveness.

Diagnostic accuracy of G-CSF, IL-8, and IL-1ra in critically ill children with suspected infection.

OBJECTIVE: To elucidate the diagnostic accuracy of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF), interleukin-8 (IL-8), and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1ra) in identifying patients with sepsis among critically ill pediatric patients with suspected infection. DESIGN AND SETTING: Nested case-control study in a multidisciplinary neonatal and pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) PATIENTS: PICU patients during a 12-month period with suspected infection, and plasma available from the time of clinical suspicion (254 episodes, 190 patients). MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Plasma levels of G-CSF, IL-8, and IL-1ra. Episodes classified on the basis of clinical and bacteriological findings into: culture-confirmed sepsis, probable sepsis, localized infection, viral infection, and no infection. Plasma levels were significantly higher in episodes of culture-confirmed sepsis than in episodes with ruled-out infection. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was higher for IL-8 and G-CSF than for IL-1ra. Combining IL-8 and G-CSF improved the diagnostic performance, particularly as to the detection of Gram-negative sepsis. Sensitivity was low (<50%) in detecting Staphylococcus epidermidis bacteremia or localized infections. CONCLUSIONS: In this heterogeneous population of critically ill children with suspected infection, a model combining plasma levels of IL-8 and G-CSF identified patients with sepsis. Negative results do not rule out S. epidermidis bacteremia or locally confined infectious processes. The model requires validation in an independent data-set.

Vulnerability to poverty: A microeconometric approach and application to the Republic of Haiti

This paper investigates vulnerability to poverty in Haiti. Research in vulnerability in developing countries has been scarce due to the high data requirements of vulnerability studies (e.g. panel or long series of cross-sections). The methodology adopted here allows the assessment of vulnerability to poverty by exploiting the short panel structure of nested data at different levels. The decomposition method reveals that vulnerability in Haiti is largely a rural phenomenon and that schooling correlates negatively with vulnerability. Most importantly, among the different shocks affecting household's income, it is found that meso-level shocks are in general far more important than covariate shocks. This finding points to some interesting policy implications in decentralizing policies to alleviate vulnerability to poverty.

On estimation and identifiability issues of sex-linked inheritance with a case study of pigmentation in Swiss barn owl (Tyto alba)

Genetic evaluation using animal models or pedigree-based models generally assume only autosomal inheritance. Bayesian animal models provide a flexible framework for genetic evaluation, and we show how the model readily can accommodate situations where the trait of interest is influenced by both autosomal and sex-linked inheritance. This allows for simultaneous calculation of autosomal and sex-chromosomal additive genetic effects. Inferences were performed using integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA), a nonsampling-based Bayesian inference methodology. We provide a detailed description of how to calculate the inverse of the X- or Z-chromosomal additive genetic relationship matrix, needed for inference. The case study of eumelanic spot diameter in a Swiss barn owl (Tyto alba) population shows that this trait is substantially influenced by variation in genes on the Z-chromosome (sigma(2)(z) = 0.2719 and sigma(2)(a) = 0.4405). Further, a simulation study for this study system shows that the animal model accounting for both autosomal and sex-chromosome-linked inheritance is identifiable, that is, the two effects can be distinguished, and provides accurate inference on the variance components.

Human parvovirus B19 infection and hydrops fetalis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Formalin-fixed paraffin embedded lung and liver tissue from 23 cases of non immune hydrops fetalis and five control cases, in which hydrops were due to syphilis (3) and genetic causes (2), were examined for the presence of human parvovirus B19 by DNA hybridisation. Using in situ hybridisation with a biotynilated probe one positive case was detected. Using 32P-labelled probes in a dot blot assay format, five further positives were obtained. These were all confirmed as positive by a nested polymerase chain reaction assay. Electron microscopy revealed virus in all these five positive cases. The six B19 DNA positive cases of hydrops fetalis were from 1974, 1980, 1982, 1987 and 1988, four of which occurred during the second half of the year, confirming the seasonality of the disease.

Selected polymorphisms in sex hormone-related genes, circulating sex hormones and risk of endometrial cancer.

BACKGROUND: The role of estrogen and progesterone in the development of endometrial cancer is well documented. Few studies have examined the association of genetic variants in sex hormone-related genes with endometrial cancer risk. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study nested within three cohorts to examine the association of endometrial cancer risk with polymorphisms in hormone-related genes among 391 cases (92% postmenopausal at diagnosis) and 712 individually-matched controls. We also examined the association of these polymorphisms with circulating levels of sex hormones and SHBG in a cross-sectional analysis including 596 healthy postmenopausal women at blood donation (controls from this nested case-control study and from a nested case-control study of breast cancer in one of the three cohorts). RESULTS: Adjusting for endometrial cancer risk factors, the A allele of rs4775936 in CYP19 was significantly associated (OR(per allele)=1.22, 95% CI=1.01-1.47, p(trend)=0.04), while the T allele of rs10046 was marginally associated with increased risk of endometrial cancer (OR(per allele)=1.20, 95% CI=0.99-1.45, p(trend)=0.06). PGR rs1042838 was also marginally associated with risk (OR(per allele)=1.25, 95% CI=0.96-1.61, p(trend)=0.09). No significant association was found for the other polymorphisms, i.e. CYP1B1 rs1800440 and rs1056836, UGT1A1 rs8175347, SHBG rs6259 and ESR1 rs2234693. Rs8175347 was significantly associated with postmenopausal levels of estradiol, free estradiol and estrone and rs6259 with SHBG and estradiol. CONCLUSION: Our findings support an association between genetic variants in CYP19, and possibly PGR, and risk of endometrial cancer.

Diagnosis of Dengue by Using Reverse Transcriptase-Polymerase Chain Reaction

A rapid identification of dengue viruses from clinical samples by using a nested reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) procedure was carried out for diagnostic and epidemiological purposes. RT-PCR identified DEN-1 and DEN-2 viruses in 41% (41/100) of previously confirmed cases and provided an accurate confirmation of DHF in four fatal cases. RT-PCR was also useful for detecting and typing dengue viruses in suspected cases, allowing a rapid identification of new serotypes in endemic areas

What if there was a stronger pharmaceutical price competition in Spain? When regulation has a similar effect to collusion

This paper examines statins competition in the Spanish pharmaceutical market, where prices are highly regulated, and simulates a situation in which there is unrestricted price competition. A nested logit demand model is estimated with a panel of monthly data for pharmaceuticals prescribed from 1997 to 2005. The simulation indicates that the regulation of prices is similar in its effects to cooperation among producers, since the regulated prices are close to those that would be observed in a scenario of perfect collusion. Freedom to set prices and a regulatory framework with appropriate incentives would result in a general reduction in prices and may make the current veiled competition in the form of discounts to pharmacists become more visible. The decrease in prices would be partially offset by an increase in consumption but the net effect would be an overall decrease in expenditure. The counterfactual set-up would also lead to important changes in the market shares of both manufacturers and active ingredients, and a reversal of generic drugs. Therefore, pro-competitive regulation would be welfare-enhancing but would imply winners and losers.

Generic drugs in Spain: price competition vs. moral hazard

This paper examines competition between generic and brand-name drugs in the regulated Spanish pharmaceutical market. A nested logit demand model is specified for the three most consumed therapeutic subgroups in Spain: statins (anticholesterol), selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (antidepressants) and proton pump inhibitors (antiulcers). The model is estimated with instrumental variables from a panel of monthly prescription data from 1999 to 2005. The dataset distinguishes between three different levels of patients’ copayments within the prescriptions and the results show that the greater the level of insurance that the patient has (and therefore the lower the patient’s copayment), the lower the proportion of generic prescriptions made by physicians. It seems that the low level of copayment has delayed the penetration of generics into the Spanish market. Additionally, the estimation of the demand model suggests that the substitution rules and promotional efforts associated with the reference pricing system have increased generic market share, and that being among the first generic entrants has an additional positive effect.

Evaluation of susceptibility of pear and plum varieties and rootstocks to Ca. P. pyri and Ca. P. prunorum using Real-Time PCR

Real-time PCR was used to quantify phytoplasma concentration in fifty inoculated trees from five Prunus rootstocks and in forty-eight symptomatic pear and Japanese plum trees from orchards. Seasonal fluctuation of Ca. P. prunorum in different Prunus rootstocks, over three years, showed that the highest percentage detected by nested-PCR was in the ‘Garnem’ rootstock on nearly all sampling dates. Intra-varietal differences were also observed. Phytoplasma titer could be estimated by real time PCR in some trees of the rootstocks ‘Garnem’, ‘Barrier’, ‘GF-677’ and ‘Marianna’, and ranged from 4.7x105 to 3.18x109 phytoplasmas per gram of tissue. Quantification by real-time PCR was not possible in the ‘Cadaman’ trees analyzed, probably due to a lower phytoplasma titer in this variety. Samples from infected trees from commercial plots had different phytoplasma concentration and detection percentage depending on the variety, both being lower in ‘Fortune’ and ‘606’ Japanese plum and in ‘Blanquilla’ pear trees.

Evaluation of an enzyme immunoassay for hepatitis C virus antibody detection using a recombinant protein derived from the core region of hepatitis C virus genome

This study was undertaken to evaluate an enzyme immunoassay (EIA) for hepatitis C virus antibody detection (anti-HCV), using just one antigen. Anti-HCV EIA was designed to detect anti-HCV IgG using on the solid-phase a recombinant C22 antigen localized at the N-terminal end of the core region of HCV genome, produced by BioMérieux. The serum samples diluted in phosphate buffer saline were added to wells coated with the C22, and incubated. After washings, the wells were loaded with conjugated anti-IgG, and read in a microtiter plate reader (492 nm). Serum samples of 145 patients were divided in two groups: a control group of 39 patients with non-C hepatitis (10 acute hepatitis A, 10 acute hepatitis B, 9 chronic hepatitis B, and 10 autoimmune hepatitis) and a study group consisting of 106 patients with chronic HCV hepatitis. In the study group all patients had anti-HCV detected by a commercially available EIA (Abbott®), specific for HCV structural and nonstructural polypeptides, alanine aminotransferase elevation or positive serum HCV-RNA detected by nested-PCR. They also had a liver biopsy compatible with chronic hepatitis. The test was positive in 101 of the 106 (95%) sera from patients in the study group and negative in 38 of the 39 (97%) sera from those in the control group, showing an accuracy of 96%. According to these results, our EIA could be used to detect anti-HCV in the serum of patients infected with hepatitis C virus.