Information and predictability: bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters as forecasters

The more information is available, and the more predictable are events, the better forecasts ought to be. In this paper forecasts by bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters are evaluated for a range of events with varying degrees of predictability and information availability. All three types of forecast represent different structures of information processing and as such would be expected to perform differently. By and large, events that are more predictable, and for which more information is available, do tend to be forecast better.

Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface

There is a strong drive towards hyperresolution earth system models in order to resolve finer scales of motion in the atmosphere. The problem of obtaining more realistic representation of terrestrial fluxes of heat and water, however, is not just a problem of moving to hyperresolution grid scales. It is much more a question of a lack of knowledge about the parameterisation of processes at whatever grid scale is being used for a wider modelling problem. Hyperresolution grid scales cannot alone solve the problem of this hyperresolution ignorance. This paper discusses these issues in more detail with specific reference to land surface parameterisations and flood inundation models. The importance of making local hyperresolution model predictions available for evaluation by local stakeholders is stressed. It is expected that this will be a major driving force for improving model performance in the future. Keith BEVEN, Hannah CLOKE, Florian PAPPENBERGER, Rob LAMB, Neil HUNTER

Managing change in complex projects: configuration management, asset information and big data

As we enter an era of ‘big data’, asset information is becoming a deliverable of complex projects. Prior research suggests digital technologies enable rapid, flexible forms of project organizing. This research analyses practices of managing change in Airbus, CERN and Crossrail, through desk-based review, interviews, visits and a cross-case workshop. These organizations deliver complex projects, rely on digital technologies to manage large data-sets; and use configuration management, a systems engineering approach with mid-20th century origins, to establish and maintain integrity. In them, configuration management has become more, rather than less, important. Asset information is structured, with change managed through digital systems, using relatively hierarchical, asynchronous and sequential processes. The paper contributes by uncovering limits to flexibility in complex projects where integrity is important. Challenges of managing change are discussed, considering the evolving nature of configuration management; potential use of analytics on complex projects; and implications for research and practice.

Information and knowledge management in complex systems

16th IFIP WG8.1 International Conference on Informatics and Semiotics in Organisations, ICISO 2015

Information and punitiveness: trial reconstruction in Ireland

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to report results from a rape trial reconstruction in Ireland. Design/methodology/approach – A studio audience of 100 members of the Irish public were selected to attend a TV programme by the Republic of Ireland’s national broadcasting organisation. This involved the examination of the sentencing of a rape case. The audience’s sentencing preferences were measured at the outset, when they had been given only summary information about the case, and later, when full details had been disclosed. Findings – Previous research examining changes in public attitudes to crime and punishment has shown that deliberation, including the provision of new information and discussion with others and experts, tends to decrease public punitiveness and increase public leniency towards sentencing. An experiment in Ireland, however, showed that providing information does not invariably and necessarily moderate punitive attitudes. This paper presents the results, and offers some explanations for the anomalous outcome. Research limitations/implications – The pre/post design, in which the audience served as their own controls, is a weak one, and participants may have responded to what they took to be the agenda of the producers. Due to the quality of the sample, the results may not be generalisable to the broader Irish population. Practical implications – Policy makers should recognise that the public is not uniformly punitive for all crimes. There is good research evidence to show that the apparent public appetite for tough punishment is illusory, and is a function of the way that polls measure public attitudes to punishment. Sentencers and those responsible for sentencing policy would benefit from a fuller understanding of the sorts of cases which illicit strong punitive responses from the public, and the reasons for this response. However any such understanding should not simply translate into responsiveness to the public’s punitive sentiments – where these exist. Innovative survey methods – like this experiment – which attempt to look beyond the top-of-the-head opinions by providing information and opportunities for deliberation should be welcomed and used more widely. Originality/value – There have been limited research studies which reports factors which may increase punitiveness through the provision of information and deliberation.

Resources, staff beliefs and organizational culture: factors in the use of information and communication technology for adults with intellectual disabilities

Background  Access to, and the use of, information and communication technology (ICT) is increasingly becoming a vital component of mainstream life. First-order (e.g. time and money) and second-order factors (e.g. beliefs of staff members) affect the use of ICT in different contexts. It is timely to investigate what these factors may be in the context of service provision for adults with intellectual disabilities given the role ICT could play in facilitating communication and access to information and opportunities as suggested in Valuing People. Method  Taking a qualitative approach, nine day service sites within one organization were visited over a period of 6 months to observe ICT-related practice and seek the views of staff members working with adults with intellectual disabilities. All day services were equipped with modern ICT equipment including computers, digital cameras, Internet connections and related peripherals. Results  Staff members reported time, training and budget as significant first-order factors. Organizational culture and beliefs about the suitability of technology for older or less able service users were the striking second-order factors mentioned. Despite similar levels of equipment, support and training, ICT use had developed in very different ways across sites. Conclusion  The provision of ICT equipment and training is not sufficient to ensure their use; the beliefs of staff members and organizational culture of sites play a substantial role in how ICT is used with and by service users. Activity theory provides a useful framework for considering how first- and second-order factors are related. Staff members need to be given clear information about the broader purpose of activities in day services, especially in relation to the lifelong learning agenda, in order to see the relevance and usefulness of ICT resources for all service users.

Influence from the sulfonate group (RSO(3)(-)) on the conversion process and emission efficiency of poly(p-phenylene vinylene)

The discovery of an alternative route to convert poly(xylyliden tetrahydrothiophenium chloride) (PTHT) into poly(p-phenylene vinylene) (PPV) using dodecylbenzenesulfonate (DBS) has allowed the formation of ultrathin films with unprecedented control of architecture and emission properties. In this work, we show that this route may be performed with several sufonated compounds where RSO(3)(-) replaces the counter-ion (Cl(-)) of PTHT, some of which are even more efficient than DBS. Spin-coating films were produced from PTHT and azo-dye molecules, an azo-polymer and organic salts as counter-ions of PTHT. The effects of the thermal annealing step of PTHT/RSO(3)(-) films at 110 and 230 degrees C were monitored by measuring the absorption and emission spectra. The results indicate that the exchange of the counterion Cl(-) of PTHT by a linear long chain with RSO(3)(-) group is a general procedure to obtain PPV polymer at lower conversion temperature (ca. 110 degrees C) with significant increase in the emission efficiency, regardless of the chemical position and the number of sulfonate groups. With the enhanced emission caused by Congo Red and Tinopal as counter-ions, it is demonstrated that the new synthetic route is entirely generic, which may allow accurate control of conversion and emission properties. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CARBON CREDITS AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY

International carbon credit markets are based in differences between developing and developed countries greenhouse gases emissions mitigation costs and technological limits faced by developed countries. Potential of energy efficiency measures to reduce fossil fuel usage in Brazilian industrial segments is assessed, and analysis of such potentials singles out those segments and regions more apt to generate carbon credits through Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. Though there are currently few Brazilian CDM projects, their number may be significantly increased, which is a positive outcome. For this purpose, it is crucial that energy conservation programs estimate how CDM may improve their economic competitiveness.

Mass transport effects in the borohydride oxidation reaction-Influence of the residence time on the reaction onset and faradaic efficiency

The borohydride oxidation reaction (BOR) was studied on Pt and Au electrodes by cyclic voltammetry in dilute alkaline borohydride solutions (0.1 M NaOH + 10(-3) mol L(-1) NaBH(4)). More specifically, the electrodes were considered as either Vulcan XC72-supported Pt or Au (noted as Pt/C and Au/C, respectively) active layers or smooth Pt or Au surfaces, the latter possibly being covered by a layer of (non-metalized) Vulcan XC72 carbon powder. The BOR onset potential and the number of electrons (n(e-)) exchanged per BH(4)(-) anion (faradaic efficiency) were investigated for these electrodes, to determine whether the residence time of reaction intermediates (at the electrode surface or inside the porous layer) does influence the overall reaction pathway/completion. For the carbon-supported platinum, n(e-) strongly depends on the thickness of the active layer. While thin (ca. 0.5 mu m-thick) Pt/C active layers yield n(e-) < 4, thick layers (approximately 3 mu m) yield n(e-)approximate to 8, which can be ascribed to the sufficient residence time of the molecules formed within the active layer (H(2), by heterogeneous hydrolysis, or BOR intermediates) enabling further (near-complete) oxidation. This puts into evidence that not only the nature of the electrocatalyst is important to reach high BOR efficiency, but also the structure/thickness of the active layer. The same trend applies for Au/C active layers and for smooth Pt or Au surfaces covered with a layer of (inactive) Vulcan XC72. In addition, the BOR onset usually shifts negative when the reaction intermediates are trapped, which suggests that some of the intermediates are more easily oxidized than BH(4)(-) itself; based on literature data, BH(3)OH(-) species is a likely candidate. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Equilibrium theory with asymmetric information and infinitely many states

Radner (1968) proved the existence of a competitive equilibrium for differential information economies with finitely many states. We extend this result to economies with infinitely many states of nature.

Essays in recursive equilibrium and market selection hypothesis

Este trabalho consiste em estudar modelos incluindo agentes com informação completa e incompleta sobre o ambiente econômico. Prova-se a existência de equilíbrio em que esses dois agentes coexistem e sob, algumas condições, obtêm-se que esse equilíbrio é recursivo e contínuo, ou seja, pode ser implementado por uma função contínua de transição que relaciona as variáveis de equilíbrio entre dois períodos consecutivos. Mostra-se, sob algumas hipóteses, que em equilíbrios recursivos contínuos, os agentes que cometem erros persistentes nas antecipações dos preços de equilíbrio são eliminados do mercado. Finalmente, exibimos diversos exemplos numéricos, no caso de mercados incompletos e informação completa, em que os agentes com expectativas racionais são eliminados do mercado. Usam-se métodos numéricos alternativos que possibilitam computar um equilíbrio em modelos com agentes heterogêneos.

The promised LAN: the transformative power of information and communications technology in developing countries

Este tese analise as implicações dos investimentos em tecnologia de informação e comunicação (ICT) em países ainda em desenvolvimento, especialmente em termos de educação, para estimular a implementação de uma infra-estrutura mais moderna em vez da continuação do uso de métodos tradicionais. Hoje, como o interesse e os investimentos em ICT estão crescendo rapidamente, os módulos e as idéias que existem para medir o estado de ICT são velhos e inexatos, e não podem ser aplicados às culturas de países em desenvolvimento. Políticos e investidores têm que considerar estes problemas quando estão pensando em investimentos ou socorros para programas em ICT no futuro, e investigadores e professores precisam entender os fatores importantes no desenvolvimento para os ICTs e a educação antes de começar estudos nestes países. Este tese conclue que investimentos em tecnologias móbeis e sem fios ajudarem organizações e governos ultrapassar a infra-estrutura tradicional, estreitando a divisão digital e dando o resulto de educação melhor, alfabetização maior, e soluções sustentáveis pelo desenvolvimento nas comunidades pobres no mundo de países em desenvolvimento.

Mobility, information, and bequest : the other side of the equal division puzzle

There is substantial empirical evidence that parental bequests to their children are typically equal in the US – a regularity inconsistent with the predictions of standard optimizing bequest models. The prior explanation for this puzzle is parents’ desire to signal equal affection given children’s incomplete information of parental preferences. However, parents also have incomplete information regarding children and the implications of this side of the information set have not previously been considered. Using a strategic bequest framework we show that when parents have sufficient uncertainty regarding children’s returns to relocation a separating equilibrium in which parents reward attentive heirs with larger bequests is precluded. We argue that such uncertainty is consistent with conditions in the contemporary US.