A Bayesian analysis of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson cure rate model

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian analysis for the right-censored survival data when immune or cured individuals may be present in the population from which the data is taken. In our approach the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution which generalizes the Poisson distribution. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to develop a Bayesian procedure for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a real data set are considered.

The geometric Birnbaum-Saunders regression model with cure rate

In this paper, we propose a cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Geometric distribution and the time to event follow a Birnbaum Saunders distribution. We consider a frequentist analysis for parameter estimation of a Geometric Birnbaum Saunders model with cure rate. Finally, to analyze a data set from the medical area. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predation of Caiman yacare (Spix, 1825) (Crocodilia, Alligatoridae) by Busarellus nigricollis (Latham, 1790) (Accipitriformes, Accipitridae) in the Taiama Ecological Station, Alto Pantanal, State of Mato Grosso

Predation of Caiman yacare (Spix, 1825) (Crocodilia, Alligatoridae) by Busarellus nigricollis (Latham, 1790) (Accipitriformes, Accipitridae) in the Taiama Ecological Station, Alto Pantanal, State of Mato Grosso. The Black-collared Hawk Busarellus nigricollis is an Accipitridae commonly seen on river banks, lagoon shores, and marshy areas. It feeds mainly on fishes and aquatic insects. It hunts from dead tree branches at forest edges or emergent trunks in flooded areas. Detailed information about the Black-collared Hawk food habits is scarce. In this study, we describe the predation of Caiman yacare (Pantanal alligator) by an individual of B. nigricollis. The event was observed on 20 August 2010 at 10: 14 am, in the Taiama Ecological Station, municipality of Caceres, Alto Pantanal, state of Mato Grosso. The B. nigricollis individual was seen leaving the Paraguay River carrying a juvenile C. yacare around 40 cm long. The prey was torn apart and given to a Black-collared Hawk nestling sitting atop a nest in flooded forest, ca. 15 m way from the river bank. This is the first published record of Pantanal alligator predation by the Black-collared Hawk.

The polysurvival model with long-term survivors

Long-term survival models have historically been considered for analyzing time-to-event data with long-term survivors fraction. However, situations in which a fraction (1 - p) of systems is subject to failure from independent competing causes of failure, while the remaining proportion p is cured or has not presented the event of interest during the time period of the study, have not been fully considered in the literature. In order to accommodate such situations, we present in this paper a new long-term survival model. Maximum likelihood estimation procedure is discussed as well as interval estimation and hypothesis tests. A real dataset illustrates the methodology.

Remote Sensing of the El Hierro submarine volcanic eruption plume

[EN] Between October 2011 and March 2012 submarine volcanic eruptions took place at El Hierro (Canary Islands). The event produced plumes of discolored waters due to the discharge of volcanic matter, gases and fluids. Field samples of Chl-a and sulphur reduced species were collected by some oceanographic cruises (Instituto Español de Oceanografía, IEO).

Identified primary hadron spectra with the TOF detector of the ALICE experiment at LHC

In this thesis the analysis to reconstruct the transverse momentum p_{t} spectra for pions, kaons and protons identified with the TOF detector of the ALICE experiment in pp Minimum Bias collisions at $\sqrt{s}=7$ TeV was reported. After a detailed description of all the parameters which influence the TOF PID performance (time resolution, calibration, alignment, matching efficiency, time-zero of the event) the method used to identify the particles, the unfolding procedure, was discussed. With this method, thanks also to the excellent TOF performance, the pion and kaon spectra can be reconstructed in the 0.5the protons can be measured in the interval 0.8the robustness of these results, a comparison with the spectra obtained with a $3\sigma$ cut PID procedure, was reported, showing an agreement within 5%. The estimation of the systematic uncertainties was described. The reported spectra provide very useful information to tune the Monte Carlo generators that, as was shown, are not able to describe $\pi$, $K$ and $p$ production over the full momentum range. The same limitation for the theoretical models in describing the data was observed when comparing with the Monte Carlo predictions the $K/\pi$ and $p/\pi$ ratios, as obtained with the TOF analysis. Finally, the comparison between the TOF results and the spectra obtained with analyses that use other ALICE PID detectors and techniques to extend the identified spectra to a wider $p_{t}$ range was reported, showing an agreement within 6\%.

Electron identification and reconstruction with the OPERA ECC bricks and search for muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillations

The procedure for event location in OPERA ECC has been optimazed for penetrating particles while is less efficient for electrons. For this reason new procedure has been defined in order to recover event with an electromagnetic shower in its final state not located with the standard one. The new procedure include the standard procedure during which several electromagnetic shower hint has been defined by means of the available data. In case the event is not located, the presence of an electromagnetic shower hint trigger a dedicated procedure. The old and new location procedure has been then simulated in order to obtain the standard location efficiency and the possible gain due to the new one for the events with electromagnetic shower. Finally a Data-MC comparison has been performed for the 2008 and 2009 runs for what concern the NC in order to validate the Monte Carlo. Then the expected electron neutrino interactions for the 2008 and 2009 runs has been evaluated and compared with the available data.

Determination of the gluon polarisation from open charm production at COMPASS

One of the main goals of the COMPASS experiment at CERN is the determination of the gluon polarisation in the nucleon. It is determined from spin asymmetries in the scattering of 160 GeV/c polarised muons on a polarised LiD target. The gluon polarisation is accessed by the selection of photon-gluon fusion (PGF) events. The PGF-process can be tagged through hadrons with high transverse momenta or through charmed hadrons in the final state. The advantage of the open charm channel is that, in leading order, the PGF-process is the only process for charm production, thus no physical background contributes to the selected data sample. This thesis presents a measurement of the gluon polarisation from the COMPASS data taken in the years 2002-2004. In the analysis, charm production is tagged through a reconstructed D0-meson decaying in $D^{0}-> K^{-}pi^{+}$ (and charge conjugates). The reconstruction is done on a combinatorial basis. The background of wrong track pairs is reduced using kinematic cuts to the reconstructed D0-candidate and the information on particle identification from the Ring Imaging Cerenkov counter. In addition, the event sample is separated into D0-candidates, where a soft pion from the decay of the D*-meson to a D0-meson, is found, and the D0-candidates without this tag. Due to the small mass difference between D*-meson and D0-meson the signal purity of the D*-tagged sample is about 7 times higher than in the untagged sample. The gluon polarisation is measured from the event asymmetries for the for the different spin configurations of the COMPASS target. To improve the statistical precision of the final results, the events in the final sample are weighted. This method results in an average value of the gluon polarisation in the x-range covered by the data. For the COMPASS data from 2002-2004, the resulting value of the gluon polarisation is $=-0.47+-0.44 (stat)+-0.15(syst.)$. The result is statistically compatible with the existing measurements of $$ in the high-pT channel. Compared to these, the open charm measurement has the advantage of a considerably smaller model dependence.

On the Efficiency of the Benchmarks Used in the Asset Management

In this work we studied the efficiency of the benchmarks used in the asset management industry. In chapter 2 we analyzed the efficiency of the benchmark used for the government bond markets. We found that for the Emerging Market Bonds an equally weighted index for the country weights is probably the more suited because guarantees maximum diversification of country risk but for the Eurozone government bond market we found a GDP weighted index is better because the most important matter is to avoid a higher weight for highly indebted countries. In chapter 3 we analyzed the efficiency of a Derivatives Index to invest in the European corporate bond market instead of a Cash Index. We can state that the two indexes are similar in terms of returns, but that the Derivatives Index is less risky because it has a lower volatility, has values of skewness and kurtosis closer to those of a normal distribution and is a more liquid instrument, as the autocorrelation is not significant. In chapter 4 it is analyzed the impact of fallen angels on the corporate bond portfolios. Our analysis investigated the impact of the month-end rebalancing of the ML Emu Non Financial Corporate Index for the exit of downgraded bond (the event). We can conclude a flexible approach to the month-end rebalancing is better in order to avoid a loss of valued due to the benchmark construction rules. In chapter 5 we did a comparison between the equally weighted and capitalization weighted method for the European equity market. The benefit which results from reweighting the portfolio into equal weights can be attributed to the fact that EW portfolios implicitly follow a contrarian investment strategy, because they mechanically rebalance away from stocks that increase in price.

Analysis of the Slow Food movement impact on the farmers and rural areas’ sustainable development

The evaluation of the farmers’ communities’ approach to the Slow Food vision, their perception of the Slow Food role in supporting their activity and their appreciation and expectations from participating in the event of Mother Earth were studied. The Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model was adopted in an agro-food sector context. A survey was conducted, 120 questionnaires from farmers attending the Mother Earth in Turin in 2010 were collected. The descriptive statistical analysis showed that both Slow Food membership and participation to Mother Earth Meeting were much appreciated for the support provided to their business and the contribution to a more sustainable and fair development. A positive social, environmental and psychological impact on farmers also resulted. Results showed also an interesting perspective on the possible universality of the Slow Food and Mother Earth values. Farmers declared that Slow Food is supporting them by preserving the biodiversity and orienting them to the use of local resources and reducing the chemical inputs. Many farmers mentioned the language/culture and administration/bureaucratic issues as an obstacle to be a member in the movement and to participate to the event. Participation to Mother Earth gives an opportunity to exchange information with other farmers’ communities and to participate to seminars and debates, helpful for their business development. The absolute majority of positive answers associated to the farmers’ willingness to relate to Slow Food and participate to the next Mother Earth editions negatively influenced the UTAUT model results. A factor analysis showed that the variables associated to the UTAUT model constructs Performance Expectancy and Effort Expectancy were consistent, able to explain the construct variability, and their measurement reliable. Their inclusion in a simplest Technology Acceptance Model could be considered in future researches.

The Trauma Towers: Dimensions of Trauma in 9/11 Literature

The topic of this dissertation is the aspects of trauma and reaction to the traumatic experience that can be found in 9/11 literature. The research engages in a comparative analysis of five books that can be categorised as 9/11 literature, which means that the events of 9/11 are central in the novels and are a recurrent theme. The books have been written by authors of different nationalities: "Extremely Loud & Incredibily Close" by J. S. Foer, "Falling Man" by D. DeLillo, "Windows on the World" by F. Beigbeder, "Saturday" by I. McEwan and "The Reluctant Fundamentalist" by M. Hamid. The characters have either experienced the attacks personally or their lives have been largely influenced by the event. In either case, the protagonist has been traumatised by the tragedy. Therefore, in this study two different fields are fused together – the field of comparative literature and that of trauma studies.

The three year follow-up of the randomised "all-comers" trial of a biodegradable polymer biolimus-eluting stent versus permanent polymer sirolimus-eluting stent (LEADERS)

Aims: The current study reports clinical outcomes at three year follow-up of the LEADERS clinical trial which was the first all-comers trial comparing a new generation biodegradable polymer biolimus drug-eluting stent (BES) with the first generation permanent polymer sirolimus-eluting stent (SES). Methods and results: One thousand seven hundred and seven patients were randomised to unrestricted use of BES (n=857) or SES (n=850) in an all-comers population. Three year follow-up was available in 95% of the patients, 812 treated with BES and 809 treated with SES. At three years, BES remains non-inferior to SES for the primary endpoint of major adverse cardiac events (composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction (MI), or clinically-indicated target vessel revascularisation (CI-TVR) (BES 15.7% versus SES 19%; HR 0.82 CI 0.65-1.03; p=0.09). The MACE Kaplan Meier event curves increasingly diverge with the difference in events increasing from 1.4% to 2.4% and 3.3% at 1, 2 and 3 years, respectively in favour of BES. The rate of cardiac death was non-significantly lower 4.2% versus 5.2% (HR=0.81 CI 0.52-1.26; p=0.34) and the rate of myocardial infarction was equivalent 7.2% versus 7.1% (HR 1.01 CI 0.70-1.44; p=0.97) for BES versus SES, respectively. Thus BES was non-inferior to SES in all the safety endpoints. Clinically-indicated TVR occurred in 9.4% of BES treated patients versus 11.1% of SES treated patients (HR 0.84 CI 0.62-1.13; p=0.25). Rates of definite stent thrombosis were 2.2% for BES and 2.9% for SES (HR 0.78 CI 0.43-1.43; p=0.43), with the event rate increase of 0.2% from one to three years for BES and 0.9% for SES. For patients presenting with ST-elevation myocardial infarction BES was superior to SES in reducing MACE. Conclusions: The findings of the three year follow-up support the claim that the biodegradable polymer biolimus-eluting stent has equivalent safety and efficacy to permanent polymer sirolimus-eluting stent in an all-comers patient population. Its performance is superior in some subpopulations such as in ST-elevation MI patients and event rates for BES are overall lower than for SES with a trend toward increasing divergence of outcomes over three years. - See more at: http://www.pcronline.com/eurointervention/42nd_issue/125/#sthash.E5HhMQ4a.dpuf

[A million football fans in a city of 120,000 inhabitants--a nightmare for emergency medicine and disaster management? Euro 2008 and the "Orange wonder of Berne"]

The 2008 European Football Championship 2008 (Euro 08) is the largest sporting event ever organized in Switzerland. One million visitors came to the city of Berne during the event and the local airport in Bern/Belp registered 261 extra flights. For each football game there were 33,000 fans in the stadium and 100,000 fans in the public viewing zones.The ambulance corps and the Department of Emergency Medicine (ED) at Inselspital, University Hospital Berne, were responsible for basic medical care and emergency medical management. Injuries and illnesses were analyzed by a standardized score (NACA score). The preparation strategy as well as costs and patient numbers are presented in detail.A total of 30 additional ambulance vehicles were used, 4,723 additional working days (one-third medical professionals) were accumulated, 662 ambulance calls were registered and 240 persons needed medical care (62% Swiss, 28% Dutch and 10% other nationalities). Among those needing treatment 51 were treated in 1 of the 4 city hospitals. No injuries with NACA grades VI and VII occurred (NACA I: 4, NACA II: 17, NACA III: 16, NACA IV: 10 and NACA V: 4 patients). The city of Berne compensated the Inselspital Bern with a total of 112,603 Euros for extra medical care costs. The largest amount was spent on security measures (50,300 Euros) and medical staff (medical doctors 22,600 Euros, nurses 29,000 Euros). Because of the poor weather and the exemplary behavior of the fans, the course of events was rather peaceful.

Prevention and control of surgical site infections: review of the Basel Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION: Surgical site infections (SSI) are the most common hospital-acquired infections among surgical patients, with significant impact on patient morbidity and health care costs. The Basel SSI Cohort Study was performed to evaluate risk factors and validate current preventive measures for SSI. The objective of the present article was to review the main results of this study and its implications for clinical practice and future research. SUMMARY OF METHODS OF THE BASEL SSI COHORT STUDY: The prospective observational cohort study included 6,283 consecutive general surgery procedures closely monitored for evidence of SSI up to 1 year after surgery. The dataset was analysed for the influence of various potential SSI risk factors, including timing of surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis (SAP), glove perforation, anaemia, transfusion and tutorial assistance, using multiple logistic regression analyses. In addition, post hoc analyses were performed to assess the economic burden of SSI, the efficiency of the clinical SSI surveillance system, and the spectrum of SSI-causing pathogens. REVIEW OF MAIN RESULTS OF THE BASEL SSI COHORT STUDY: The overall SSI rate was 4.7% (293/6,283). While SAP was administered in most patients between 44 and 0 minutes before surgical incision, the lowest risk of SSI was recorded when the antibiotics were administered between 74 and 30 minutes before surgery. Glove perforation in the absence of SAP increased the risk of SSI (OR 2.0; CI 1.4-2.8; p <0.001). No significant association was found for anaemia, transfusion and tutorial assistance with the risk of SSI. The mean additional hospital cost in the event of SSI was CHF 19,638 (95% CI, 8,492-30,784). The surgical staff documented only 49% of in-hospital SSI; the infection control team registered the remaining 51%. Staphylococcus aureus was the most common SSI-causing pathogen (29% of all SSI with documented microbiology). No case of an antimicrobial-resistant pathogen was identified in this series. CONCLUSIONS: The Basel SSI Cohort Study suggested that SAP should be administered between 74 and 30 minutes before surgery. Due to the observational nature of these data, corroboration is planned in a randomized controlled trial, which is supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. Routine change of gloves or double gloving is recommended in the absence of SAP. Anaemia, transfusion and tutorial assistance do not increase the risk of SSI. The substantial economic burden of in-hospital SSI has been confirmed. SSI surveillance by the surgical staff detected only half of all in-hospital SSI, which prompted the introduction of an electronic SSI surveillance system at the University Hospital of Basel and the Cantonal Hospital of Aarau. Due to the absence of multiresistant SSI-causing pathogens, the continuous use of single-shot single-drug SAP with cefuroxime (plus metronidazole in colorectal surgery) has been validated.

The Returns to Migration: The Influence of Education and Migration Type

We show the impact of migration type on real wages over time. We create a migration and earnings history from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth over the period 1979-2002. We estimate the effects of primary, onward, and two types of return migration on real wages using a panel data model with individual, location, and time fixed effects. Panel data are well suited for the study of the returns to U.S. internal migration because the influence of migration on wages has been found to occur years after the event. We differentiate return migration into two types: return to a location with ties that form a geographical anchor (home) and return to a prior place of work. We find that real wage growth varies by migration type. Education attainment is a significant factor in real wage growth. Our results show that onward migration is an important channel by which the monetary rewards to a college education are manifested.