FUTURES OF FINNISH FOOD SYSTEM BY 2050. The perspective of resilience

Modern food systems face complex global challenges such as climate change, resource scarcities, population growth, concentration and globalization. It is not possible to forecast how all these challenges will affect food systems, but futures research methods provide possibilities to enable better understanding of possible futures and that way increases futures awareness. In this thesis, the two-round online Delphi method was utilized to research experts’ opinions about the present and the future resilience of the Finnish food system up to 2050. The first round questionnaire was constructed based on the resilience indicators developed for agroecosystems. Sub-systems in the study were primary production (main focus), food industry, retail and consumption. Based on the results from the first round, the future images were constructed for primary production and food industry sub-sections. The second round asked experts’ opinion about the future images’ probability and desirability. In addition, panarchy scenarios were constructed by using the adaptive cycle and panarchy frameworks. Furthermore, a new approach to general resilience indicators was developed combining “categories” of the social ecological systems (structure, behaviors and governance) and general resilience parameters (tightness of feedbacks, modularity, diversity, the amount of change a system can withstand, capacity of learning and self- organizing behavior). The results indicate that there are strengths in the Finnish food system for building resilience. According to experts organic farms and larger farms are perceived as socially self-organized, which can promote innovations and new experimentations for adaptation to changing circumstances. In addition, organic farms are currently seen as the most ecologically self-regulated farms. There are also weaknesses in the Finnish food system restricting resilience building. It is important to reach optimal redundancy, in which efficiency and resilience are in balance. In the whole food system, retail sector will probably face the most dramatic changes in the future, especially, when panarchy scenarios and the future images are reflected. The profitability of farms is and will be a critical cornerstone of the overall resilience in primary production. All in all, the food system experts have very positive views concerning the resilience development of the Finnish food system in the future. Sometimes small and local is beautiful, sometimes large and international is more resilient. However, when probabilities and desirability of the future images were questioned, there were significant deviations. It appears that experts do not always believe desirable futures to materialize.

FUTURES OF FINNISH FOOD SYSTEM BY 2050. The perspective of resilience

Modern food systems face complex global challenges such as climate change, resource scarcities, population growth, concentration and globalization. It is not possible to forecast how all these challenges will affect food systems, but futures research methods provide possibilities to enable better understanding of possible futures and that way increases futures awareness. In this thesis, the two-round online Delphi method was utilized to research experts’ opinions about the present and the future resilience of the Finnish food system up to 2050. The first round questionnaire was constructed based on the resilience indicators developed for agroecosystems. Sub-systems in the study were primary production (main focus), food industry, retail and consumption. Based on the results from the first round, the future images were constructed for primary production and food industry sub-sections. The second round asked experts’ opinion about the future images’ probability and desirability. In addition, panarchy scenarios were constructed by using the adaptive cycle and panarchy frameworks. Furthermore, a new approach to general resilience indicators was developed combining “categories” of the social ecological systems (structure, behaviors and governance) and general resilience parameters (tightness of feedbacks, modularity, diversity, the amount of change a system can withstand, capacity of learning and self- organizing behavior). The results indicate that there are strengths in the Finnish food system for building resilience. According to experts organic farms and larger farms are perceived as socially self-organized, which can promote innovations and new experimentations for adaptation to changing circumstances. In addition, organic farms are currently seen as the most ecologically self-regulated farms. There are also weaknesses in the Finnish food system restricting resilience building. It is important to reach optimal redundancy, in which efficiency and resilience are in balance. In the whole food system, retail sector will probably face the most dramatic changes in the future, especially, when panarchy scenarios and the future images are reflected. The profitability of farms is and will be a critical cornerstone of the overall resilience in primary production. All in all, the food system experts have very positive views concerning the resilience development of the Finnish food system in the future. Sometimes small and local is beautiful, sometimes large and international is more resilient. However, when probabilities and desirability of the future images were questioned, there were significant deviations. It appears that experts do not always believe desirable futures to materialize.

Climate change and global responsibility - the role of energy consumption, GDP and CO2 emissions

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges faced by this generation. Despite being the single most important environmental challenge facing the planet and despite over two decades of international climate negotiations, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise. By the middle of this century, GHGs must be reduced by as much as 40-70% if dangerous climate change is to be avoided. In the Kyoto Protocol no quantitative emission limitation and reduction commitments were placed on the developing countries. For the planning of the future commitments period and possible participation of developing countries, information of the functioning of the energy systems, CO2 emissions development in different sectors, energy use and technological development in developing countries is essential. In addition to the per capita emissions, the efficiency of the energy system in relation to GHG emissions is crucial for the decision of future long-term burden sharing between countries. Country’s future development of CO2 emissions can be defined by the estimated CO2 intensity of the future and the estimated GDP growth. The changes in CO2 intensity depend on several factors, but generally developed countries’ intensity has been increasing in the industrialization phase and decreasing when their economy shifts more towards the system dominated by the service sector. The level of the CO2 intensity depends by a large extent on the production structure and the energy sources that are used. Currently one of the most urgent issues regarding global climate change is to decide the future of the Kyoto Protocol. Negotiations on this topic have already been initiated, with the aim of being finalised by the 2015. This thesis provides insights into the various approaches that can be used to characterise the concept of comparable efforts for developing countries in a future international climate agreement. The thesis examines the post-Kyoto burden sharing questions for developing countries using the contraction and convergence model, which is one approach that has been proposed to allocate commitments regarding future GHG emissions mitigation. This new approach is a practical tool for the evaluation of the Kyoto climate policy process and global climate change negotiations from the perspective of the developing countries.

Business intelligence – enabling self-service: A case study in a global manufacturing company

Business intelligence (BI) is an information process that includes the activities and applications used to transform business data into valuable business information. Today’s enterprises are collecting detailed data which has increased the available business data drastically. In order to meet changing customer needs and gain competitive advantage businesses try to leverage this information. However, IT departments are struggling to meet the increased amount of reporting needs. Therefore, recent shift in the BI market has been towards empowering business users with self-service BI capabilities. The purpose of this study was to understand how self-service BI could help businesses to meet increased reporting demands. The research problem was approached with an empirical single case study. Qualitative data was gathered with a semi-structured, theme-based interview. The study found out that case company’s BI system was mostly used for group performance reporting. Ad-hoc and business user-driven information needs were mostly fulfilled with self-made tools and manual work. It was felt that necessary business information was not easily available. The concept of self-service BI was perceived to be helpful to meet such reporting needs. However, it was found out that the available data is often too complex for an average user to fully understand. The respondents felt that in order to self-service BI to work, the data has to be simplified and described in a way that it can be understood by the average business user. The results of the study suggest that BI programs struggle in meeting all the information needs of today’s businesses. The concept of self-service BI tries to resolve this problem by allowing users easy self-service access to necessary business information. However, business data is often complex and hard to understand. Self-serviced BI has to overcome this challenge before it can reach its potential benefits.

The role of nuclear and other conventional power plants in the flexible energy system

This thesis reviews the role of nuclear and conventional power plants in the future energy system. The review is done by utilizing freely accesible publications in addition to generating load duration and ramping curves for Nordic energy system. As the aim of the future energy system is to reduce GHG-emissions and avoid further global warming, the need for flexible power generation increases with the increased share of intermittent renewables. The goal of this thesis is to offer extensive understanding of possibilities and restrictions that nuclear power and conventional power plants have regarding flexible and sustainable generation. As a conclusion, nuclear power is the only technology that is able to provide large scale GHG-free power output variations with good ramping values. Most of the currently operating plants are able to take part in load following as the requirement to do so is already required to be included in the plant design. Load duration and ramping curves produced prove that nuclear power is able to cover most of the annual generation variation and ramping needs in the Nordic energy system. From the conventional power generation methods, only biomass combustion can be considered GHG-free because biomass is considered carbon neutral. CFB combusted biomass has good load follow capabilities in good ramping and turndown ratios. All the other conventional power generation technologies generate GHG-emissions and therefore the use of these technologies should be reduced.

CRM system implementation supporting the management of customer relationships

The purpose of this thesis is to examine customer relationship management in a large, global organization. The aim is to deepen the understanding on how CRM-system implementation can support customer relationship management in strategic, operational and analytical levels.

Business intelligence – enabling self-service: A case study in a global manufacturing company

Business intelligence (BI) is an information process that includes the activities and applications used to transform business data into valuable business information. Today’s enterprises are collecting detailed data which has increased the available business data drastically. In order to meet changing customer needs and gain competitive advantage businesses try to leverage this information. However, IT departments are struggling to meet the increased amount of reporting needs. Therefore, recent shift in the BI market has been towards empowering business users with self-service BI capabilities. The purpose of this study was to understand how self-service BI could help businesses to meet increased reporting demands. The research problem was approached with an empirical single case study. Qualitative data was gathered with a semi-structured, theme-based interview. The study found out that case company’s BI system was mostly used for group performance reporting. Ad-hoc and business user-driven information needs were mostly fulfilled with self-made tools and manual work. It was felt that necessary business information was not easily available. The concept of self-service BI was perceived to be helpful to meet such reporting needs. However, it was found out that the available data is often too complex for an average user to fully understand. The respondents felt that in order to self-service BI to work, the data has to be simplified and described in a way that it can be understood by the average business user. The results of the study suggest that BI programs struggle in meeting all the information needs of today’s businesses. The concept of self-service BI tries to resolve this problem by allowing users easy self-service access to necessary business information. However, business data is often complex and hard to understand. Self-serviced BI has to overcome this challenge before it can reach its potential benefits.

Perspectivas das negociações entre o Mercosul e a União Europeia em um contexto de paralisia do sistema multilateral e da nova geografia econômica global

The aim of this paper is to scale the impact of changes in the patterns of international trade and Foreign Investment and how the shift in the world economic geography affects the relations between Mercosur and the European Union. The perception is that the outcome of negotiations between the two blocks is linked to the paralysis of the multilateral system and the European perspective of the economic dimension of the Agreement. The study suggests that the European Union faces conceptual and operational problems to establish clear goals and business strategies towards Mercosur and to insert them under a new global economic geography.

Global coordination: weighted voting

In order to halt the depletion of global ecological capital, a number of different kinds of meetings between Governments of countries in the world has been scheduled. The need for global coordination of environmental policies has become ever more obvious, supported by more and more evidence of the running down of ecological capital. But there are no formal or binding arrangements in sight, as global environmental coordination suffers from high transaction costs (qualitative voting). The CO2 equivalent emissions, resulting in global warming, are driven by the unstoppable economic expansion in the global market economy, employing mainly fossil fuel generated energy, although at the same time lifting sharply the GDP per capita of several emerging countries. Only global environmental coordination on the successful model of the World Band and the IMF (quantitative voting) can stem the rising emissions numbers and stop further environmental degradation. However, the system of weighted voting in the WB and the IMF must be reformed by reducing the excessive voting power disparities, for instance by reducing all member country votes by the cube root expression.

Global instability of currencies: reasons and perspectives according to the state-corporation hegemonic stability theory

This paper analyses reasons of the instability of the world monetary system. The author considers this problem from historical and contemporary perspectives. According to presented point of view banknotes and electronic money which replaced gold and silver coins in popular circulation are the most important reason of the instability. There are also proven positive and negative consequences of money instability. Reforms of the world monetary system need agreement within the global collective hegemony of state-powers and transnational corporations.

Evaluation of the main energy scenarios for the global energy transition

Energy scenarios are used as a tool to examine credible future states and pathways. The one who constructs a scenario defines the framework in which the possible outcomes exist. The credibility of a scenario depends on its compatibility with real world experiences, and on how well the general information of the study, methodology, and originality and processing of data are disclosed. In the thesis, selected global energy scenarios’ transparency and desirability from the society’s point of view were evaluated based on literature derived criteria. The global energy transition consists of changes to social conventions and economic development in addition to technological development. Energy solutions are economic and ethical choices due to far-reaching impacts of energy decision-making. Currently the global energy system is mostly based on fossil fuels, which is unsustainable over the long-term due to various reasons: negative climate change impacts, negative health impacts, depletion of fossil fuel reserves, resource-use conflicts with water management and food supply, loss of biodiversity, challenge to preserve ecosystems and resources for future generations, and inability of fossil fuels to provide universal access to modern energy services. Nuclear power and carbon capture and storage cannot be regarded as sustainable energy solutions due to their inherent risks and required long-term storage. The energy transition is driven by a growing energy demand, decreasing costs of renewables, modularity and scalability of renewable technologies, macroeconomic benefits of using renewables, investors’ risk awareness, renewable energy related attractive business opportunities, almost even distribution of solar and wind resources on the planet, growing awareness of the planet’s environmental status, environmental movements and tougher environmental legislation. Many of the investigated scenarios identified solar and wind power as a backbone for future energy systems. The scenarios, in which the solar and wind potentials were deployed in largest scale, met best the set out sustainability criteria. In future research, energy scenarios’ transparency can be improved by better disclosure on who has ordered the study, clarifying the funding, clearly referencing to used sources and indicating processed data, and by exploring how variations in cost assumptions and deployment of technologies influence on the outcomes of the study.

Ethnic conflicts and international politics : an analysis of the communal regional, and global dimensions of the Cyprus problem

The thesis assesses the impact of international factors on relations between Greek and Turkish Cypriots during and after the Cold War. Through an analysis of the Cyprus problem it explores both why external actors intervene in communal conflicts and how they influence relations between ethnic groups in plural societies. The analytical framework employed throughout the study draws on contributions of International Relations theorists and students of ethnic conflict. The thesis argues that, as in the global political system, relations between ethnic groups in unranked communal systems are anarchic; that is, actors within the system do not recognize a sovereign political authority. In bipolar communal systems dominated by two relatively equal groups, the struggle for security and power often leads to appeals for assistance from external actors. The framework notes that neighboring states and Great Powers may heed calls for assistance, or intervene without a prior request, if it is in their interest to do so. The convergence of regional and global interests in communal affairs exacerbates ethnic conflicts and precludes the development of effective political institutions. The impact of external intervention in ethnic conflicts has the potential to alter the basis of communal relations. The Cyprus problem is examined both during and after the Cold War in order to gauge how global and regional actors and the structure of their respective systems have affected relations between ethnic groups in Cyprus. The thesis argues that Cyprus's descent into civil war in 1963 was due in part to the entrenchment of external interests in the Republic's constitution. The study also notes that power politics involving the United States, Soviet Union, Greece and Turkey continued to affect the development of communal relations throughout the 1960s, 70s, and, 80s. External intervention culminated in July and August 1974, after a Greek sponsored coup was answered by Turkey's invasion and partition of Cyprus. The forced expulsion of Greek Cypriots from the island's northern territories led to the establishment of ethnically homogeneous zones, thus altering the context of communal relations dramatically. The study also examines the role of the United Nations in Cyprus, noting that its failure to settle the dispute was due in large part to a lack of cooperation from Turkey, and the United States' and Soviet Union's acceptance of the status quo following the 1974 invasion and partition of the island. The thesis argues that the deterioration of Greek-Turkish relations in the post-Cold War era has made a solution to the dispute unlikely for the time being. Barring any dramatic changes in relations between communal and regional antagonists, relations between Greek and Turkish Cypriots will continue to develop along the lines established in July/August 1974. The thesis concludes by affirming the validity of its core hypotheses through a brief survey of recent works touching on international politics and ethnic conflict. Questions requiring further research are noted as are elements of the study that require further refinement.

Global migration : patriarchy, propoganda and the well- being of women and children

This critical analysis explores the conflicted position of women as ''trailing spouses" and the effects on families who relocate globally under the auspices of a multinational corporation, by utilizing a discursive analysis of two contemporary films and available literature. Current portrayals of women and children in contemporary media provide emotional yet conflicting images of the perfect woman, wife, mother, child and family. The basic tenets of a North American patriarchal economic system are being televised around the world. Technological advancements have made it possible to advertise political agendas on a global television screen. Much of what we see is propaganda couched in films and advertisements that are designed to romantic~e the practice of deriving profits from the unpaid labor of woman and invisibility of children and child rearing. I intend to show that the materiality of trailing a spouse globally conflicts with these romanticized images and supports feminist literature that asserts the notion that mothers and children are oppressed and managed for the benefit of capital.

Moral Loopholes in the Global Economic Environment: Why Well-Intentioned Organizations Act in Harmful Ways

Thomas Pogge’s notion of moral loopholes serves to provide support for two claims: first, that the ethical code of the global economic order contains moral loopholes that allow participants in special social arrangements to reduce their obligations to those outside the social arrangement, which leads to morally objectionable actions for which no party feels responsible and that are also counterproductive to the overall objective of the economic system; and, second, that these moral loopholes are more likely to exist as our economic order becomes more global. Finally, it will be shown that attempts to rectify the situation with voluntary corporate codes of conduct are inadequate. The argument proceeds through analysis of one case study, concerning action by the executive of the Cerrejón mining operation at La Guajira Penisular, Colombia.

Moral Loopholes in the Global Economic Environment: Why Well-Intentioned Organizations Act in Harmful Ways

Thomas Pogge’s notion of moral loopholes serves to provide support for two claims: first, that the ethical code of the global economic order contains moral loopholes that allow participants in special social arrangements to reduce their obligations to those outside the social arrangement, which leads to morally objectionable actions for which no party feels responsible and that are also counterproductive to the overall objective of the economic system; and, second, that these moral loopholes are more likely to exist as our economic order becomes more global. Finally, it will be shown that attempts to rectify the situation with voluntary corporate codes of conduct are inadequate. The argument proceeds through analysis of one case study, concerning action by the executive of the Cerrejón mining operation at La Guajira Penisular, Colombia.