Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks : understanding probability

An introduction to thinking about and understanding probability that highlights the main pits and trapfalls that befall logical reasoning

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, Part 1 of 4 : understanding probability

An introduction to elicitation of experts' probabilities, which illustrates common problems with reasoning and how to circumvent them during elicitation.

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, part 2 of 4: designing elicitation

An introduction to design of eliciting knowledge from experts.

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, Part 4 of 4: eliciting a conditional probability table

An introduction to eliciting a conditional probability table in a Bayesian Network model, highlighting three efficient methods for populating a CPT.

Falls in Parkinson’s disease : evidence for altered stepping strategies on compliant surfaces

Background: Real-world environments comprise surfaces of different textures, densities and gradients, which can threaten postural stability and increase falls risk. However, there has been limited research that has examined how walking on compliant surfaces influences gait and postural stability in older people and PD patients. Methods: PD patients (n = 49) and age-matched controls (n = 32) were assessed using three dimensional motion analysis during self-paced walking on both firm and foam walkways. Falls were recorded prospectively over 12 months using daily falls calendars. Results: Walking on a foam surface influenced the temporospatial characteristics for all groups, but PD fallers adopted very different joint kinematics compared with controls. PD fallers also demonstrated reduced toe clearance and had increased mediolateral head motion(relative to walking velocity) compared with control participants. Conclusions: Postural control deficits in PD fallers may impair their capacity to attenuate surface-related perturbations and control head motion. The risk of falling for PD patients may be increased on less stable surfaces.

The collaborative push : pushing beyond rhetoric and gaining evidence

Collaboration has been enacted as a core strategy by both the government and nongovernment sectors to address many of the intractable issues confronting contemporary society. The cult of collaboration has become so pervasive that it is now an elastic term referring generally to any form of ‘working together’. The lack of specificity about collaboration and its practice means that it risks being reduced to mere rhetoric without sustained practice or action. Drawing on an extensive data set (qualitative, quantitative) of broadly collaborative endeavours gathered over ten years in Queensland, Australia, this paper aims to fill out the black box of collaboration. Specifically it examines the drivers for collaboration, dominant structures and mechanisms adopted, what has worked and unintended consequences. In particular it investigates the skills and competencies required in an embeded collaborative endeavour within and across organisations. Social network analysis is applied to isolate the structural properties of collaborations over other forms of integration as well as highlighting key roles and tasks. Collaboration is found to be a distinctive form of working together, characterised by intense and interdependent relationships and exchanges, higher levels of cohesion (density) and requiring new ways of behaving, working, managing and leading. These elements are configured into a practice framework. Developing an empirical evidence base for collaboration structure, practice and strategy provides a useful foundation for theory extension. The paper concludes that for collaboration, to be successfully employed as a management strategy it must move beyond rhetoric and develop a coherent model for action.

Evidence-based practice

This chapter traces the history of evidence-based practice (EBP) from its roots in evidence-based medicine to contemporary thinking about the usefulness of such an approach to public health practice. It defines EBP and differentiates it from terms such as evidence-based medicine, evidence-based policy and evidence-based health care. As EBP is concerned with identifying ‘good evidence’, this chapter will briefly describe the nature and production of knowledge, as it is important to understand the subjective nature of knowledge and the research process. This chapter considers the necessary skills for EBP, and discusses the processes of attaining the necessary evidence and its limitations. We examine the barriers and facilitators to identifying and implementing ‘best practice’, and when EBP is appropriate to use. There is a discussion about the limitations of EBP and the potential use of other sources of information to guide practice, and concluding information about the application of evidence to guide policy and practice.

Unintended consequences of regulatory reporting requirements for small and medium size construction entities : Australian evidence

The Queensland Building Services Authority (QBSA) regulates the construction industry in Queensland, Australia, with licensing requirements creating differential financial reporting obligations, depending on firm size. Economic theories of regulation and behaviour provide a framework for investigating effects of the financial constraints and financial reporting requirements imposed by QBSA licensing. Data are analysed for all small and medium construction entities operating in Queensland between 2001 and 2006. Findings suggesting that construction licensees are categorizing themselves as smaller to avoid the more onerous and costly financial reporting of higher licensee categories are consistent with US findings from the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) regulation which created incentives for small firms to stay small to avoid the costs of compliance with more onerous financial reporting requirements. Such behaviour can have the undesirable economic consequences of adversely affecting employment, investment, wealth creation and financial stability. Insights and implications from the analysed QBSA processes are important for future policy reform and design, and useful to be considered where similar regulatory approaches are planned.

Evidence for CRHR1 in multiple sclerosis using supervised machine learning and meta-analysis in 12 566 individuals

The primary genetic risk factor in multiple sclerosis (MS) is the HLA-DRB1*1501 allele; however, much of the remaining genetic contribution to MS has yet to be elucidated. Several lines of evidence support a role for neuroendocrine system involvement in autoimmunity which may, in part, be genetically determined. Here, we comprehensively investigated variation within eight candidate hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis genes and susceptibility to MS. A total of 326 SNPs were investigated in a discovery dataset of 1343 MS cases and 1379 healthy controls of European ancestry using a multi-analytical strategy. Random Forests, a supervised machine-learning algorithm, identified eight intronic SNPs within the corticotrophin-releasing hormone receptor 1 or CRHR1 locus on 17q21.31 as important predictors of MS. On the basis of univariate analyses, six CRHR1 variants were associated with decreased risk for disease following a conservative correction for multiple tests. Independent replication was observed for CRHR1 in a large meta-analysis comprising 2624 MS cases and 7220 healthy controls of European ancestry. Results from a combined meta-analysis of all 3967 MS cases and 8599 controls provide strong evidence for the involvement of CRHR1 in MS. The strongest association was observed for rs242936 (OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.74-0.90, P = 9.7 × 10-5). Replicated CRHR1 variants appear to exist on a single associated haplotype. Further investigation of mechanisms involved in HPA axis regulation and response to stress in MS pathogenesis is warranted. © The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Managing specialised knowledge in technopreneurial firms : evidence from Australian SMEs

This paper analyses particularities of the knowledge management process in technopreneurial firms with particular focus on knowledge identification, acquisition, utilisation and integration. Using a qualitative investigation from a sample of Australian SMEs, a number of key observations are derived which show the challenges of managing knowledge and how important knowledge management is as a management tool for R&D and innovation process in technology-oriented SMEs. Findings suggest that knowledge management and integration processes in these firms are very much project focused and mainly based on ad hoc and informal processes and not embedded within the overall organisational routines.

Exercise for breast cancer survivors: bridging the gap between evidence and practice

Evidence supporting the benefits of exercise following the diagnosis of breast cancer is overwhelming and compelling. Exercise reduces the severity and number of treatment-related side effects, optimizes quality of life during and following treatment, and may optimize survival. Yet, exercise does not uniformly form part of the standards of care provided to women following a breast cancer diagnosis. This commentary summarizes the evidence in support of exercise as a form of adjuvant treatment and identifies and discusses potential issues preventing the formal integration of exercise into breast cancer care. Proposed within the commentary is a model of breast cancer care that incorporates exercise prescription as a key component but also integrates the need for surveillance and management for common breast cancer treatment-related morbidities, as well as education. While future research evaluating the potential cost savings through implementation of such amodel is required, a committed, collaborative approach by clinicians, allied health professionals, and researchers will be instrumental in bridging the gap between research and practice.

Trends in policies, programs and practices in the Australasian First Year Experience literature 2000-2010. The First Year in Higher Education Research Series on Evidence-based Practice. Number 1

This publication is the first in a series of scholarly reports on research-based practice related to the First Year Experience in Higher Education. This report synthesises evidence about practice-based initiatives and pragmatic approaches in Aotearoa (New Zealand) and Australia that aim to enhance the experience of commencing students in the higher education sector. Trends in policies, programs and practices ... examines the first year experience literature from 2000-2010. It acknowledges the uniqueness of the Australasian socio-political context and its influence on the interests and output of researchers. The review surveyed almost 400 empirical reports and conceptual discussions produced over the decade that dealt with the stakeholders, institutions and the higher education sector in Australasia. The literature is examined through two theoretical constructs or “lenses”: first, a set of first year curriculum design principles and second, the generational approach to describing the maturation of initiatives. These outcomes and suggested directions for further research provide the challenges and the opportunities for FYE adherents, both scholars and practitioners, to grapple with in the next decade.